Articles

It’s an impressive day for the US dollar as the Dollar Index breaks above 100 with a broad bid. The chart here looks like something of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern that targets a rise to 102.00.

The market is beginning to shift away from recessionary pricing and Fed cuts. A June cut is still high at 66% but that’s slide today while pricing for the year ahead is down to 122 bps from 131 bps yesterday.

The yield curve is validating the move as well with 2-year yields up 5 bps to 3.67% from a low of 3.56% earlier today.

The dollar bids are getting help from the tech trade as money piles back into the Nasdaq following strong earnings from Microsoft and Facebook.

There is a delicate balancing act here because tariffs are still out there and the US and China are effectively embargoing each other. The market is pricing in a trade war climb down but to what level? And no one really knows the effects on the real economy. That said, you could argue that companies like MSFT and META are basically immune.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

‘Buy America’ is the theme as the market anticipates some kind of trade deal to be announced later today.

That’s led to strong US dollar bids across the board that have accelerated in the last hour. In addition, stock markets are at the highs of the day with the S&P 500 up 1.4% and the Nasdaq up 2.4%. After falling into negative territory pre-market, the Russell 2000 is up 1%.

Aside from trade, one thing that could be driving bids is the tone from Congress around the big tax cut message. It’s tough to trust a politician but all the comments have been positive and upbeat. I think the flipside is that it will come with a huge budget deficit because that seems to be the path of least resistance.

So it’s not truly a ‘Buy America’ theme as bonds are selling off today. Bessent earlier highlighted falling 2-year yields but those have reversed course and are now up 3 bps and up 10 bps from the lows. We’ve also seen Fed cut pricing in the year ahead come in by 6 bps.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The first report about Waltz came out a few hours ago and now CBS is reporting that he’s out along with deputy Alex Wong.

The initial report says US Special Envoy to the Middle East could be Steve Witkoff who has been negotiating with Russia and Iran. The again, there was a hit on Witkoff just yesterday in the New York Post.

It’s expected to be announced on the weekend but that timeline could change.

The move could also help to explain why US-Iran negotiations scheduled for this weekend were delayed. Waltz retired from the army reserve stepped down from Congress in January to take the job. He replaced Jake Sullivan who was Biden’s National Security Advisor for his entire term.

Trump had 8 advisors in the role in his first term, starting with Michael Flynn.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• All three documents were signed
• General partnership overseeing the group located in Delaware
• 50% of royalties will come from new natural resource projects in Ukraine
• Ukraine deal can be a model for similar international deals

It doesn’t sound like they’re anticipating any problems with Ukraine’s parliament.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Manufacturers are at the heart of the trade war and today’s ISM survey of the industry gave the market some solace: Orders aren’t collapsing.

Combine that with largely upbeat commentary from corporates as Q1 earnings roll out and the world is feeling better about the tariff war. I’d caution that could be premature but there are also indications that Trump is backing off on the trade war as the US calls China and gets set to announce a deal later today.

Next up is Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and there could be some volatility there but I just don’t see many companies talking about layoffs at the moment.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 0.7% revised to 0.6%
• Construction spending -0.5% vs 0.2% estimate

Details from the Census Bureau:

Total Construction

• March 2025 spending: $2,196.1B, down -0.5% (±0.8%) from February’s $2,206.9B

• Up 2.8% (±1.2%) from March 2024’s $2,135.8B

• Year-to-date (Jan–Mar 2025): $485.7B, up 2.9% (±1.0%) from $472.2B in same period 2024

Private Construction

• Total private spending: $1,688.0B, down -0.6% (±0.5%) from February’s $1,697.7B

• Residential construction: $937.7B, down -0.4% (±1.3%) from $941.7B

• Nonresidential construction: $750.3B, down -0.8% (±0.5%) from $756.0B

Public Construction

• Total public spending: $508.1B, down -0.2% (±1.5%) from February’s $509.2B

• Educational construction: $110.0B, down -0.6% (±1.6%) from $110.6B

• Highway construction: $145.8B, down -0.5% (±5.6%) from $146.4B

Key Factors:

• Rising material costs, particularly in steel and copper, have increased construction input prices by 0.5% in March, contributing to project delays and cancellations.

• Tariff uncertainties have further strained the industry, leading to cautious investment and planning.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 50.7
• Prices paid vs 70.3 expected
• Employment vs 44.7 prior — lowest since Sept (and second lowest since 2020)
• New orders vs 45.2 prior – lowest since June 2023
• Production vs 48.3 prior
• Imports vs 50.1 prior

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prelim was 50.7
• Prior was 50.2
• Panelists noted an increased apprehension in product
  markets, mainly around the future direction of US trade policy
• Business confidence at 10 month low
• stocks of finished goods were reduced for a fifth
  month in a row, and to the greatest degree of the year so far

I’m surprised that inventories have been drawn down so deeply and it points to a rough hit from shortages than anticipated, and sooner.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence

“Manufacturing continued to flat-line in April amid
worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising
costs.
“Factory output fell for a second successive month as
tariffs were widely blamed on a slump in export orders
and curbed spending among customers more broadly
amid rising uncertainty.
“Although the survey saw some producers report
evidence of beneficial tariff-related switching of
customer demand away from imports, any such sales
increase was countered by worries over tariff-related
disruptions to supply chains and lost export sales. This
served to drive business confidence about prospects
in the year ahead down sharply to the gloomiest for 10
months.
“Concerns have also spiked in terms of input costs,
especially for imported materials and components, due
to the triple whammy of tariff-related price hikes, supply
shortages, and the weaker dollar.
“Manufacturers are responding to these changing
demand, supply and cost conditions by raising their
selling prices and trimming headcounts to help protect
their margins.”

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 46.3

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• EV sales down 39%
• Hybrids up 29.6%
• ICE up 17.5%

This is an interesting number because it shows that the race to beat the tariffs was real. That’s going to create a bullwhip effect down the line and it shows a real effect on consumer behaviour. That’s going to lead to a blockbuster April retail sales report.

Ford shares are up 1% premarket, which puts them right back to where they were in 1985.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This was an interesting tease from Hassett on tariff deals:

If you’d like the person in the middle of all that is Jamieson Greer and Howard Lutnick outside of China. And I’m sure they’re happy to talk to you about it; I’m sure there will be news by the end of the day.

CNBC: So you don’t know who is first or what is in the air?

Hassett: I think I know but I can’t tease

CNBC: You do think you know?

Hassett: I do think I know.

I expect this will be an announcement of a deal with India, where there are mounting signs of a deal. The contours of that will be key, particularly if the US is will to lower its tariff floor below 10%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is it? Are they going to unveil the first trade deal or at least the details?

If that’s the case, make sure to follow the news until the US market close as that would be HUGE for the markets.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.