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The lack of changes in the macro picture and the waiting for the key US data has caused the bullish momentum to wane recently. Growth
expectations remain positive and that should keep supporting bitcoin in the bigger picture.

The
only risk I see ahead for risk assets is a more hawkish repricing in
interest rate expectations if inflation worries increase. This
repricing might trigger a bigger pullback in bitcoin and the stock
market in the short-term, although the uptrend should remain intact.

The economic data is now back in focus, especially on the inflation side. We have three key events in the next couple of weeks with the NFP report tomorrow, the US CPI next week and the FOMC decision the week after.

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that bitcoin broke below the key trendline, and after a retest, continued lower towards the 102,127 level. From a risk management perspective, that level would offer a nice risk to reward setup for the buyers to position for new all-time highs. For now, we are consolidating below the newly created resistance aroudn the 106,800 level.

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we are compressing between two trendlines. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the upward trendline to keep pushing into new highs and increase the bullish bets on the break above the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will continue to lean on the downward trendline and increase the bearish bets on the break of the upward trendline.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -1.6%; revised to -1.7%

Looking at the breakdown, the major drag on the month is mostly due to a fall in energy prices (-7.7%). If you strip that out, euro area PPI actually was up 0.1% in April compared to March. There were increases in the prices for durable consumer goods (+0.1%) and non-durable consumer goods (+0.3%). That is marginally offset by a drop in prices for intermediate goods (-0.1%) while capital goods were flat.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• US trade policy remains one of the top three sources of uncertainty for UK businesses
• But the share of firms seeing that to be the case is now down to 12% (previously 22%)
• 70% of UK firms reported that changes to US trade policy would have no material impact on their business
• Firms’ expectations for year-ahead inflation unchanged at 3.2% in the three months to May
• Firms’ expected year-ahead wage growth now seen at 3.7%, down by 0.1% from before

The UK is one of the few countries to be least impacted from Trump tariffs, so it does explain the sentiment above of course. That said, stagflation worries remain the big threat for the UK economy at the moment – not least after the inflation jump in April here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 46.6

The improvement in overall activity comes as both output and new orders fell at the slowest pace since January. However, employment conditions continue to stutter with job shedding accelerating by its fastest since August 2020. S&P Global notes that:

“The construction sector continued to adjust to weaker
order books in May, which led to sustained reductions in
output, staff hiring and purchasing. However, the worst
phase of spending cutbacks may have passed as total new
work fell at a much slower pace than the near five-year
record in February.

“Housing activity was the weakest-performing segment
in May as demand remained constrained by elevated
borrowing costs and subdued confidence. Commercial
work was close to stabilisation after a marked decline
in April, suggesting that fears about domestic economic
prospects have abated after the initial shock of US tariff
announcements.

“Output growth expectations across the UK construction
sector recovered to the highest so far in 2025. Survey
respondents mostly cited a general improvement in sales
projections as well as a potential tailwind from falling
interest rates over the year ahead.

“On the inflation front, stubbornly high input price
pressures were recorded in May, although the overall rise
in purchasing costs was the least marked for four months.
Many firms noted that suppliers continued to pass through
greater payroll costs.

“Rising wages, squeezed margins and subdued demand
weighed on construction employment, despite a brighter
outlook for business activity. Job shedding was the steepest
since August 2020, while subcontractor usage decreased to
the greatest extent for five years.”

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, we got the news that Saudi Arabia was pushing for OPEC+ to maintain its faster pace of oil
production increases in the coming months, aiming to regain market share
rather than support prices.

The news weighed on the market but was quickly faded as the negative supply news continue to have less and less of an impact on prices. This is generally a signal that the market has factored that in and it’s now looking through it.

The thing to watch is the demand side. That should keep on improving in the next months with a renewed trade war as the main risk for the outlook.

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we’ve been ranging for a month now between the 60.00 support and the 64.00 resistance. The market participants will likely continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side. For now, a breakout to the upside remains the base case, and in such an instance, the 72.00 level will be the next target.

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a smaller range now between the 62.18 support and the 64.00 resistance. Again, participants will keep on playing the range until we get a breakout on either side.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -0.5%
• Retail sales y/y +3.7% vs -2.8% prior

In the three months to April 2025, retail sales grew by 0.1% in value
and declined by 0.4% in volume compared to the previous three-month
period.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 45.1

The decline in activity was steeper than in April but there looks to be some improvement in fortunes, led by a continued recovery in civil engineering activity. Homebuilding and commercial activity continues to stutter though but firms’ expectations for the coming year improved markedly to turn positive for the first time since the start of 2022. HCOB notes that:

“Civil engineering is starting to shake off the slump. While we are not seeing actual growth just yet, the fact that the index
has ticked up for two straight months is a good sign. The big infrastructure package from the federal government is still in the
pipeline, but there is already more momentum behind ongoing projects. That is more than can be said for residential and
commercial construction, which took another hit in May. With civil engineering making up about 14% of the sector’s value
added, it is in a good spot to help pull things up, though it will not be able to do all the heavy lifting on its own.

“The upward trend in long-term German government bond yields since December last year is likely to have contributed to
the sharper downturn in both residential and commercial construction in May. The interest rate cuts by the European Central
Bank are primarily relevant for short-term financing and have therefore only helped the sector to a limited extent. In
residential construction in particular, the sector has taken two steps forward and then one step back in recent months, which
suggests that the outlook is for only a slow improvement. In commercial construction, no clear direction can be derived from
developments over the past six months. The sharp decline in new orders indicates that an economic turnaround is not
imminent in overall construction. This is also supported by the fact that input prices have increased for the third month in a
row, increasing pressure on the profitability of construction firms.

“The mood has definitely improved. Not too long ago, things were looking pretty bleak, with the future activity index just a
few points above the 2008 low. Fast forward to today, with a new federal government and an infrastructure plan in the works,
and confidence is back to early 2022 levels. It will still take a bit before that optimism turns into real action on the ground. But
if all goes well, 2026 could be the year when growth really kicks in, spreading from civil engineering into residential and
commercial construction.”

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx +0.1%
• Germany DAX +0.1%
• France CAC 40 +0.1%
• UK FTSE flat
• Spain IBEX -0.3%
• Italy FTSE MIB flat

After the gains in the past two days, we’re seeing things settle down for a bit with US futures also looking rather tentative. S&P 500 futures are down 0.04%, so it’s not indicative of much to start the session. That is not making for a lot to work with as well for major currencies, which are still little changed in general today. The ECB will be the highlight of the agenda but that will only come later at 1215 GMT.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 2.8%

The data was scheduled for 0545 GMT but was delayed by the source. In any case, the Swiss jobless rate continues to creep higher with this being the highest reading since August 2021. That points to continued softening in labour market conditions since last year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Well, Japan is at least trying to be creative by further burning bridges with China here. I mean despite both sides having maintained relatively strong economic ties, things have been rather strained politically for many years now. That especially since the territorial dispute in 2010, which eventually led to the embargo on rare earth supplies. And ultimately, this is what is happening now.

As things stand, Japan is still trying to push for a removal of tariffs especially that of autos. So, we’ll see how things will play out from here. Akazawa is making his way to Washington again today in a four-day visit in trying to speed things along before the G7 summit. His latest comment at the airport was “we will continue to strongly request that the series of tariff measures by the US be reviewed”.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japan is to present a cooperation package to the US on building a supply network for rare earths. China has restricted the export of seven rare earth elements to the US and the Japanese government is aiming to get concessions from the US with this joint “countermeasure package”.

Click here for the full article

JiJi is also reporting that the US is showing flexibility on lowering additional reciprocal tariffs with Japan. As a reminder, the deadline for the 90 days pause expires on July 8th.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +3.6%

That’s a modest beat and even if you exclude large orders, new orders were 0.3% higher than in the previous month. Looking at the breakdown, incoming orders for capital goods rose by 4.1% on the month. And that is slightly offset by declines in incoming orders for both intermediate goods (-3.4%) and consumer goods (-5.9%).

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.