Articles

• Prior +0.2%
• Import price index -1.4% y/y
• Prior -1.0%

Excluding energy prices, German import prices were seen up 0.3% on the month and unchanged compared to October last year. As such, it reaffirms that the greatest impact on the overall development of import prices was again the decline in energy prices. Compared to October last year, that is seen down 15.1% and compared to September, it was down by an average of 1.5%.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

I’ve mentioned for a while now that gold has been trading within a flag/wedge pattern recently and the next trending move is likely to come from a break of that. And today, we’re starting to see buyers take some action in a push up to test waters above the technical pennant as seen below:

So, what does this all mean?

I would argue that the push higher would be more convincing had it not been the Thanksgiving holiday period. Liquidity conditions in most markets are sapped, so there might still be some lingering question marks on this move as well.

However, one can’t just simply ignore the technical picture either. But personally, I’d be more convinced on a break today if it comes with a close above $4,200 to break the mid-November high. Then, there would be a stronger case and argument for a resumption in the uptrend to target the October highs again.

Otherwise, it will be a bit tricky in trying to get a good sense of the move we’re seeing today. Not least with month-end flows also in the picture and just before we get to the new month next week. That being said, December has been a strong seasonal month for gold though just not quite the case in 2024 following a hot streak from February to October last year.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Germany remains the major sticking point for the ECB in trying to ease monetary policy further going into the turn of the year. Core annual inflation was seen at 2.8% in October, being one of the higher ones and arguably the most relevant one considering that Germany is Europe’s largest economy.

For November, headline annual inflation is estimated to come in at 2.4% – just marginally higher than the 2.3% reading last month. As price pressures continue to stay stubborn and well above the 2% mark, the ECB will have little choice but to keep on the sidelines in favour of a more cautious approach in policy setting.

Here’s the agenda for today:

• 0900 GMT – North Rhine Westphalia
• 0900 GMT – Hesse
• 0900 GMT – Bavaria
• 0900 GMT – Baden Wuerttemberg
• 0900 GMT – Saxony
• 1300 GMT – Germany national preliminary figures

Do note that the releases don’t exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

A word of warning from Beijing: “We hope Malaysia will fully consider and properly handle this matter in light of its long-term national interests.”

For some context, this relates to the headline from yesterday here and this is all related to the rare earth minerals deal signed between Malaysia and the US amid Trump’s visit in October. China is clearly not happy with the situation as they are hoping to starve the US of rare earth minerals supply, using that as a trump card – no pun intended – in negotiations. China’s warning to Malaysia is that they see this as “a move to decouple Southeast Asian supply chains from Beijing’s influence”.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Trump: Will permanently pause migration from all third world countries
• Ongoing issues have halted trade at the CME for an extended time – futures not trading
• Westpac sees Australia’s Q3 GDP accelerating, led by strongest domestic demand since 2012
• S&P cut Vanke to CCC-, flags deepening distress. New stage in Vanke’s rapid deterioration.
• Westpac: APRA’s new high-DTI cap pre-emptive, slightly dovish for RBA outlook
• Japan GDP at risk as China tensions threaten key tourism flows, Goldman says
• Repayment delay sparks panic selling in China Vanke debt. Record low, trading halt.
• Tokyo inflation stays hot as yen weakens, pushing BOJ closer to a rate hike
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0789 (vs. estimate at 7.0779)
• Australian Private Sector Credit October +0.7% m/m (expected +0.6%, prior +0.6%)
• Japan October industrial production (preliminary) +1.5% y/y (expected -0.5%) & +1.4% m/m
• Japan October retail sales +1.7% y/y (expected +0.8%)
• US news: One of the two National Guard members shot in Washington on Wednesday has died
• Japan October unemployment rate 2.6% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.6%)
• Japan inflation: November Tokyo CPI Headline 2.7% y/y (expected 2.7%, prior 2.8%)
• South Korea industrial slump in Oct, but retail and services show resilience
• S&P warns UK finances remain vulnerable despite new budget revenue measures
• Belgium warns EU plan to use frozen Russian assets risks harming Ukraine peace talks
• Fed easing is reviving classic rotation trades as investors look beyond the AI megacaps
• New Zealand data – November consumer confidence improves to 98.4 (prior 92.4)

It was a subdued session for financial markets with the U.S. closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, leaving liquidity thin and ranges tight.

Japan delivered the bulk of the overnight interest, with a run of data that broadly supports the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike in the coming months. Tokyo core CPI, a lead indicator of nationwide inflation, rose 2.8% y/y in November, a touch firmer than expected and unchanged from October. The demand-driven gauge that excludes both fresh food and fuel also held at 2.8%, pointing to sticky underlying inflation. Services inflation eased slightly to 1.5% but remains consistent with persistent price pressure.

On the activity side, factory output surprised to the upside with a 1.4% m/m gain in October, driven by auto production. But manufacturers expect declines ahead, forecasting drops of 1.2% in November and 2.0% in December as the hit from U.S. tariffs looms larger. Retail sales and labour-market readings were steady, suggesting Japan’s domestic economy is proving resilient for now.

Major FX stayed confined to narrow ranges throughout the session.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -0.1%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -0.24%
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.2%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -0.1%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump: Will permanently pause migration from all third world countries to allow U.S. system to fully recover.

• I will end all federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens of our country

This is in response to the shooting in Washington of two National Guard members.

• US news: One of the two National Guard members shot in Washington on Wednesday has died

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There have been no trades on S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq 100 futures since 0344 GMT according to LSEG data. Trading halts began before that though.

CME’s website reports that CME Globex futures & options markets halted due to a technical issue.

Apparebntly it’s a cooling issue at Cyrusone data centres.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s economy is poised to show a solid pick-up in momentum through the September quarter, according to Westpac, which expects next week’s National Accounts (due on December 3) to confirm a stronger and more synchronised recovery across key parts of the economy.

The bank is forecasting Q3 GDP growth of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, lifting annual growth to 2.3%, a touch above the Reserve Bank’s newly updated 2.0% trend estimate. Westpac says its numbers are broadly aligned with its real-time Westpac-Now model, which has been signalling firming underlying momentum heading into year-end.

A standout feature of the expected result is the strength in domestic demand, which Westpac believes surged 1.5% in Q3, the strongest quarterly rise since early 2012. The bank says the upswing is becoming increasingly broad-based, with multiple sectors contributing rather than activity relying on isolated pockets of strength.

Westpac cautions that headline growth should moderate over the next few quarters as unusually large capital-expenditure items, notably aircraft purchases, roll off. Even so, stripping out those one-offs leaves underlying growth at a healthy 0.6% for the quarter, pointing to resilience beneath the surface.

The bank also expects productivity to show a meaningful rebound, rising 0.9% over the year. That, in turn, would help slow nominal unit labour cost growth to around 2.5% on a six-month annualised basis — a development Westpac says would be “encouraging” for the Reserve Bank as it weighs the inflation outlook.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P Global has downgraded China Vanke to CCC- from CCC, warning that the developer’s plan to seek maturity extensions on its onshore debt indicates heightened liquidity stress. The rating has been placed on CreditWatch Negative, signalling further cuts are possible.

The move follows the collapse in Vanke’s yuan bonds — including the 2027 note that plunged to 31/100 and triggered trading halts — underscoring how the once-blue-chip developer has been pulled deeper into China’s property-sector crisis. S&P said the potential extension is tantamount to distress and reflects a “material likelihood of default” unless significant support emerges.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs economists warn that worsening political frictions between Japan and China could deliver a measurable drag on Japan’s economy by hitting tourism flows and demand for consumer goods. The bank estimates that a meaningful decline in visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong—Japan’s most valuable inbound tourism segment—could shave around 0.2 percentage point off GDP growth.

The projection is based partly on the 2016–2017 episode when China sharply curtailed tourism to South Korea during the Thaad missile-defense dispute, demonstrating how political retaliation can spill into consumer behaviour. Goldman’s Tomohiro Ota and Yuriko Tanaka suggest that a scenario involving a 50% drop in Chinese and Hong Kong tourists would deal a similar blow to Japan today.

Some of the loss would likely be cushioned: tourists from other markets may partially fill the gap, and domestic travel remains strong. After such offsets, Goldman estimates the net drag would be closer to 0.1 percentage point, but still meaningful given Japan’s already modest growth trajectory.

The analysis underscores the sensitivity of Japan’s recovery to diplomatic dynamics with China—especially because tourism has become a key post-pandemic economic driver.

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I know Trump is motivated by getting a deal with China, but it was probably advice that’ll help Japan’s economy:

• WSJ: Trump urged Japan’s Takaichi to soften tone on Taiwan in private call

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Not to mention the ability China has to sell the **** out of Japan assets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China Vanke’s onshore bonds tumbled to fresh record lows on Friday, deepening concerns over the health of one of the country’s last remaining investment-grade property developers. The selloff came after Vanke sought to delay repayment on an onshore bond for the first time, a major red flag for a company long considered one of the sector’s most stable names.

Vanke’s 2027 yuan bond collapsed 22.5% at the open to just 31 yuan per 100 yuan of par, triggering an automatic trading halt on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Trading in three other onshore bonds was also suspended as prices plunged.

The latest stress marks a dramatic reversal for Vanke, once viewed as a “national champion” among Chinese developers. For nearly two decades, it operated with comparatively conservative leverage, strong sales, and implicit state support through its ties to Shenzhen’s state-owned entities. But China’s prolonged property downturn, intensified by the government’s “three red lines” deleveraging campaign, has crushed liquidity across the sector. Falling home prices, stalled projects, and weak presales have sharply eroded cash flow, leaving even top-tier names under strain.

Vanke’s troubles escalated through 2024–25 as its sales dropped sharply, offshore bonds traded at distressed levels, and investors questioned its ability to refinance maturing debt. Its request this week to extend an onshore repayment signals that liquidity conditions have tightened further, pulling the company closer to the fate of peers like Evergrande, Country Garden, and Greenland, who all spiralled into default.

The bond-market reaction underscores how fragile confidence has become — and how even China’s “safe” developers are no longer insulated from the sector’s deepening credit stress.

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Vanke’s bond collapse is likely to pressure wider China HY property credit, weigh on CNH sentiment, and increase calls for stronger state intervention to stabilise funding for developers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan October industrial production (preliminary) for October 2025.

+1.7% y/y

• expected +0.8%, prior +0.2%

+1.4% m/m

• expected -0.6%, prior +2.6%

Japan’s industrial sector delivered a firmer-than-expected performance in October, with factory output rising 1.4% from the previous month, according to government data released on Friday.

Despite the upside surprise, manufacturers remain cautious about the near-term outlook. A survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed firms expect output to fall 1.2% in November, a slightly deeper projected drop than last month’s forecast of –0.9%. Producers also anticipate a further 2.0% decline in December, suggesting the recovery may be brief as global demand remains uneven and supply-chain pressures linger.

The data highlight the mixed momentum in Japan’s factories: a stronger-than-expected October print, followed by expectations of renewed contraction heading into year-end.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.