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Japan October retail sales +1.7% y/y (expected +0.8%)

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Awful news from the US today:

• One of the two National Guard members shot in Washington on Wednesday has died
• The other is still fighting for his life.

Trump with the news.

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National Guard member Sarah Beckstrom has died of her injuries. Terrible, terrible news. Condolences to family and friends.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Jobs data from Japan for October 2025, the labour market there remains tight.

Unemployment Rate 2.6%

• expected 2.5%, prior 2.6%

Jobs / Applicants Ratio 1.18

• expected
  1.2, prior 1.2

Most focus is on the CPI data, from the Tokyo area for November.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tokyo area November inflation data, the core measures higher than headline.

Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 2.7%

• expected 2.7%, prior 2.8%

Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) (Nov) 2.8% … higher than expected and the same as in October

• expected 2.7%, prior 2.8%

Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Nov) 2.8%, ditto, higher than expected and the same as in October

• expected 2.7%, prior 2.8%

The data shows inflation still simmering away well above the 2% BoJ target. The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18-19 and expectations are edging towards a right hike but its not a done deal yet by any means.

• BOJ’s Noguchi: Further yen declines could impact underlying inflation
• BOJ’s Noguchi: Japan making steady progress in meeting inflation target
• Recap – BoJ’s Noguchi tempers December hike bets, urges measured, step-by-step tightening
• investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJ

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data from South Korea show a mixed picture: industrial output slumped sharply in October even as retail sales rose and service-sector output held up. According to the national statistics office,

• industrial production in October fell 8.1% year-on-year and 4.0% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted).
• By contrast, retail sales rose 3.5% month-on-month,
• while service-sector output slipped modestly by 0.6% month-on-month.

That weak industrial performance follows a rebound in September, when overall production rose 1.0% month-on-month (and 6.7% y/y), driven by a 1.8% increase in services — although retail sales dipped 0.1% in September. The divergence suggests private consumption and services remain more resilient than manufacturing, which may be weighed down by global demand softness or supply-chain headwinds.

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The sharp drop in industrial output may weigh on export-linked assets and Korean equities, while softer manufacturing signals could dampen global supply-chain demand; stable retail and services may cushion domestic consumption risks.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P Global Ratings has cautioned that the UK’s public finances remain under considerable strain, despite the revenue-raising steps outlined in the Autumn 2025 Budget. The agency said structural spending pressures and muted growth mean fiscal stress is likely to persist through the medium term.

S&P described the UK’s fiscal position as “vulnerable,” calling it one of the key constraints on Britain’s sovereign credit rating. While it expects government deficits to gradually narrow through 2028, the agency also warned that the UK’s fiscal consolidation plan faces risks — particularly toward the end of the forecast horizon, when spending demands are expected to intensify and political space for further tightening may shrink.

The comments underscore lingering concerns about the UK’s debt trajectory and highlight that the latest budget measures are unlikely to materially shift the long-running fiscal challenges.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Belgium’s prime minister has warned that the European Union’s push to tap frozen Russian state assets for Ukraine risks undermining future peace efforts, according to the Financial Times.

In brief:

• PM Bart De Wever raised the concern in a letter to Commission chief von der Leyen.

• EU leaders failed last month to get Belgium’s backing for a €140bn loan scheme for Kyiv.

• Much of the Russian money is held in Belgium, giving Brussels significant leverage.

• The Commission will propose new legal text to address Belgian concerns this week.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence in NZ for November 2025.

Up 6.5% m/m to 98.4, its highest level since June:

• in October the index fell 2.3% to 92.4

ANZ express a concern:

• The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose 5 points but is still net negative at -9.
• This indicator hasn’t been positive in more than four years.

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The survey also asks about inflation expectations:

• lifted slightly from 5.1% to 5.2%

Its been a run of good news from NZ this week, a rate cut from the RBNZ:

• investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJ)

and the:

• New Zealand Q3 retail sales show huge jump, much improved from Q2

• New Zealand November business confidence 67.1% (up from 58.1% prior)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

For those not celebrating Thanksgiving, and for those who are but just can’t stayaway from markets (can relate!), it’s a heavy data day from Japan. The focus is on the CPI from Tokyo (more on this below).

The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18 and 19. Developments in inflation data wil;l be keenly eyed. The policy board is still tossing up a rate hike at that meeting, or not. Latest:

• BOJ’s Noguchi: Further yen declines could impact underlying inflation
• BOJ’s Noguchi: Japan making steady progress in meeting inflation target
• Recap – BoJ’s Noguchi tempers December hike bets, urges measured, step-by-step tightening
• investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJ

The screenshot is from the investingLive economic data calendar.

• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

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Tokyo area November inflation data is expected to remain fairly steady from October, just nudging down by a tenth of a precent mainly. .

• National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.
• Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPI
• It measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan area
• Its considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hub
• Historically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example

I have posted the above info before, doing so again ICYMI.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• There are no final versions to the peace plan
• We agree that Trumpìs Ukraine plain can be used as a basis for future agreements
• We need to discuss some things
• Russia does not plan to attack Europe, this is ridiculous
• We are ready to discuss European security
• We are also ready to discuss strategic stability with the US
• We are ready for serious discussion, expect the US delegation next week

There’s been some weakness in crude oil on the back of Putin’s comments as expectations about the end of the war remain positive.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -21.16 billion (revised to -21.56 billion)

From the agency: “The decrease in the current account deficit in the third quarter was largely due to a narrowing of the trade in goods deficit, as exports increased in the quarter while imports decreased. The investment income and trade in services components also contributed to the overall narrowing of the current account deficit.

In the financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), inflows of funds from abroad to finance the current account deficit came primarily from foreign investment in Canadian debt securities. While Canadian investors continued to increase their exposure to US securities, foreign investors rekindled their demand for Canadian securities in the third quarter.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Reminder: Thanksgiving holiday to sap the appetite from markets today
• Gold continues to keep within technical pennant for now
• USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Weakness in both currencies leads to choppy price action
• ECB meeting accounts note that present uncertainty justifies keeping rates unchanged
• ECB’s Kazaks: Time is not ripe to discuss a rate cut
• BOJ’s Noguchi: Japan making steady progress in meeting inflation target
• BOJ’s Noguchi: Further yen declines could impact underlying inflation
• UK chancellor Reeves: Borrowing costs fell because I’m controlling debt
• Eurozone November final consumer confidence -14.2 vs -14.2 prelim
• Eurozone October M3 money supply +2.8% v +2.8% y/y expected
• Germany December GfK consumer sentiment -23.2 vs -23.2 expected
• Italy September industrial sales M/M +2.1% vs -0.7% prior
• Italy November business confidence 89.6 vs 88.5 expected
• China expresses stern concerns over certain contents in US-Malaysia trade deal

Markets:

• NZD leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities a little higher; S&P 500 futures flat
• Gold down 0.2% to $4,156.79
• WTI crude oil up 0.4% to $58.89
• Bitcoin up 1.0% to $91,127

It was a quiet session with not all too much to work with as trading appetite is sapped amid the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

The holiday break is also leading to a lull in Europe, with traders and investors looking fairly disinterested during the session. That especially with no major data releases or headlines to deal with as well.

In the major currencies space, the dollar is little changed across the board in a lackluster start to the day. EUR/USD is down just 0.1% to 1.1585 while USD/JPY is down 0.1% to 156.35 currently. The latter at least did nudge a little higher from around 155.90 levels at the start of the session. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is keeping the post-budget gains at around 1.3230 though down 0.1% on the day.

In the equities space, European indices are posting minor gains as the risk mood holds up on the week. But with Wall Street out of commission today, there’s not much conviction to go running.

As for the commodities space, gold continues to hold stuck in its technical pennant and is down just slightly at $4,156 at the moment. In crypto land, at least risk appetite is picking up with Bitcoin now climbing back up to $91,000. That’s a relief after the scare from last week surely.

To all those celebrating, I wish you a very Happy Thanksgiving holiday break and enjoy the long weekend!

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.