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Japan is preparing to significantly expand short-tenor bond issuance to help fund its latest economic stimulus package, according to officials speaking to Reuters. The government plans to boost issuance of two- and five-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs), lifting total scheduled JGB sales for the fiscal year through March by roughly ¥7 trillion from the current ¥171.8 trillion target. Longer-dated supply, 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds, will remain unchanged.

The revised funding plan also includes an additional ¥6 trillion in treasury discount bills to strengthen near-term financing capacity. Monthly issuance of two- and five-year JGBs is expected to rise by ¥100 billion each from January. The proposal will be presented to primary dealers on Thursday before going to cabinet for approval on Friday, alongside the extra budget tied to the stimulus programme.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump privately urged Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to soften her rhetoric toward China after she came out forcefully on Taiwan.

According to people familiar with the call, Trump encouraged Takaichi to “lower the tone” in order to avoid inflaming tensions with President Xi Jinping at a delicate moment in U.S.–China–Japan relations. The exchange underscores the geopolitical sensitivity surrounding Taiwan, where Japan’s vocal support has drawn Beijing’s ire, and highlights Washington’s ongoing efforts to manage allied messaging as it navigates its own strategic competition with China.

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Some background on this for weeks ago, this issue is not going away:

• China State Media: China Pres. Xi and US Pres. Trump held call

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Soaring NZ retail sales for Q3 2025.

New Zealand Retail Sales +1.9% q/q

• expected +0.6%, prior +0.5%

New Zealand Retail Sales Quarterly vs. Year Ago +4.5%

• prior +2.3%

Signs of a New Zealand economy getting off the canvas has been welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Bank pushed the door shut on further rate cuts in is statement/minutes/conference yesterday. Barring a return to poor economic performance, of course.

The new Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, Dr Anna Breman, will begin on 1 December 2025. She’s walking into an improved situation.

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The NZD remained firm on Wednesday trade in Europe and US after jumping here in Asia after the RBNZ announcement:

• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov:NZD soars on Hawkish Cut/GBP rallies on budget

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Major US indices close higher for the 4th consecutive day
• Carney to meet Trump at World Cup draw as Canada-U.S. trade talks remain frozen
• RBNZ Hawkesby: We are in a position where we can sort of watch and see how things progress
• NZ Finance minister names Rodger Finlay chair of the RBNZ
• Two military personnel shot near the White House according to ABC News
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.65
• Federal Reserve minutes from the November meeting:Little changed since the previous report
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -12 to 407
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow falls to 3.9% from 4.0%
• US 30 year fixed-rate mortgage 6.23% vs 6.26% last week
• Major European’s indices close higher
• The US treasury sells $44 billion of 7 year notes at a high yield of 3.781%
• ECB’s Lane: For sustainability of inflation at 2%, needs to see deceleration of energy px
• Crude oil inventories build of 2.774 million versus estimate 0.055 million
• Tech sector rallies: Nvidia leads the charge, Google stumbles
• ECBs Vujcic: It has become more difficult to forecast food inflation due to climate change
• US Durable goods orders for September 0.5% versus 0.3% estimate
• US initial jobless claims 216K vs 225K expected
• investingLive European markets wrap: Another UK budget fiasco
• UK chancellor Reeves: There will be no return to austerity

The US Dollar traded mostly lower against most major peers today (with the notable exception of the Yen), as risk appetite returned to the markets and specific domestic catalysts drove outperformance in the New Zealand Dollar and British Pound.

1. The RBNZ Shock: A “Hawkish Cut” (NZD +1.32%)

The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) was the undisputed top performer of the day, surging 1.32% to 0.5694.

• The Catalyst: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, as widely expected.

• The Twist: Despite the cut, the move was interpreted as “hawkish” because the RBNZ explicitly signaled that the easing cycle is effectively over. Governor Christian Hawkesby’s committee indicated that rates are likely to remain on hold throughout 2026, defying market expectations for deeper cuts.

• Market Reaction: This “one-and-done” signal forced a massive repricing of interest rate expectations, triggering a short squeeze that propelled the Kiwi significantly higher against the Greenback and the Aussie.

2. Sterling and the Budget (GBP +0.49%)

The British Pound (Cable) staged a solid recovery, rising 0.49% to 1.3231, as markets reacted positively to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget.

• Budget Summary: The Chancellor delivered a “growth-focused” budget that avoided the worst-case tax scenarios feared by the City. Key points included:

  • No new bank taxes: A decision to avoid a fresh tax squeeze on the banking sector reassured investors.

  • Fiscal Headroom: The release (inadvertently leaked early by the OBR) revealed a larger-than-anticipated fiscal buffer, signaling fiscal responsibility alongside investment.

  • Lack of 2026 Tax Hikes: The absence of aggressive future tax hikes for the coming year calmed “budget jitters.”

• Market Reaction: The combination of fiscal prudence and growth initiatives triggered a relief rally. Gilt yields eased, and the Pound moved higher as the “uncertainty risk premium” that had weighed on the currency in recent weeks evaporated.

3. Broader Currency Moves

• USD/JPY (+0.27% to 156.46): The Yen was an outlier, weakening slightly against the Dollar. This move largely reflects improved global risk sentiment (equity markets recovering, fueled by reports of a potential Ukraine-Russia peace framework), which reduced demand for safe-haven assets like the Yen. The lower JPY also occurred despite expectations that the BOJ may look to raise rates in reaction to the weaker JPY. Well the JPY was weaker today.

• USD/CAD (-0.41% to 1.4038): The Canadian Dollar strengthened (pushing USD/CAD lower) despite oil prices testing key support levels. The Loonie likely benefited from the broad weakness in the USD and positive cross-border trade sentiment.

• AUD/USD (+0.76% to 0.6516): The Australian Dollar rallied in sympathy with the NZD and benefited from the overall “risk-on” tone in global markets.

Fundamentally and other market data.

• US initial jobless claims came in lower than expectations that 216K vs 225K last week. No noticeable slowdown in the weekly claims.
• US durable goods came in stronger than expectations, but it was for the month of September as they catch up continues
• Crude oil inventories showed a greater than expected build of inventories. Despite the build, will prices are higher in the day by $0.63 at $58.58
• Gold prices moved higher by $34 or 0.83% at $4164
• Silver soared by $1.80 or 3.5% to $53.25
• Bitcoin rose sharply by $3000 or 3.3% to $90299 (see post here). The high price reached $90,445. The next target comes in at $94,229 (the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 27 swing high).
• US stocks moved higher led by the NASDAQ index up 0.82%. The S&P index rose 0.69% and the Dow industrial average rose 0.67%.
• US yields were mixed with the two-year up to basis points at 3.479%. The 10 year yield was down 0.8 basis points and back below the 4.00 level at 3.994%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing higher led by the NASDAQ index with a gain of 0.82%.

Looking at the closing levels:

• Dow industrial average is up 314.67 points or 0.67% at 47427.12
• S&P index is up 46.73 points or 0.69% at 6812.61
• NASDAQ index is up 189.10 points or 0.82% at 23214.69.

The indices are up for the 4th consecutive day helped by a shift in the Fed bias led by comments from near Fed Pres Williams. The odds of a Fed rate cut moved up from about 35% last week to close to 85% this week. The Fed interest rate decision will take place on December 10. The Fed will enter their blackout period at the close on Friday.

J.P. Morgan is now saying that they expect the Fed to cut in December.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington next week for the 2026 World Cup draw, where he expects to meet U.S. President Donald Trump.

Carney said the pair spoke briefly on Tuesday, but noted that trade negotiations remain stalled.

Talks were halted last month after Ontario aired an advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan warning that tariffs can trigger trade wars and economic damage. Carney said discussions on reviving the trade agenda in key sectors have not restarted.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Both NZD and AUD were swung around by events in Asia yesterday, the Kiwi from the RBNZ rate cut and the Aussie by surging inflation:

• investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJ)

The data from NZ and Oz won’t impact as much, but I’ll keep an eye on the releases and post thier implications.

With the US out now for a holiday Thursday that’ll somehow stretch into a slack Friday and a long weekend Asian traders will be reluctant to punt too heavily during the session here.

• This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Two National Guardsmen were shot near the White House in downtown Washington, prompting a swift security response. One suspect is in custody, and police say the scene is now secure. The incident, reported around 2:20 p.m. ET at the Farragut West Metro station entrance, led to a White House lockdown. President Trump, currently in Florida for Thanksgiving, has been briefed and the White House is actively monitoring the situation.

Bullet Points:

• Two National Guardsmen shot near the White House.

• Conditions of the victims remain unknown.

• One suspect is in custody; scene secured, police say.

• Incident occurred around 2:20 p.m. ET near Farragut West Metro entrance.

• President Trump has been briefed and the White House is monitoring.

• The White House is currently on lockdown.

• Trump is in Florida at Mar-a-Lago for Thanksgiving.

Those short are reportedly in critical condition.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures settled at $58.65, rising $0.70 (+1.21%) on the session. Price action was contained within a $57.66 low and a $58.69 high, keeping the market choppy but constructive through the day.

On the hourly chart, the rebound lifted crude back above the 100-hour moving average at $58.24, a short-term positive that helped stabilize downside momentum. However, the market still trades below the 200-hour moving average at $59.01, meaning buyers have not yet regained full control. That level remains a key barrier that must be broken to shift the bias more convincingly higher.

Adding to the technical picture, yesterday’s high stalled at the underside of a broken trendline, a rejection that reinforced seller interest and contributed to Tuesday’s push lower. That same trendline now sits near $59.30 and marks an important upside target for bulls.

If crude can work back above both the 200-hour moving average and the broken trendline, the bullish bias would strengthen materially. Until then, the market remains caught between early signs of buying interest and lingering resistance that continues to cap the upside.

The Baker Hughes rig count today showed a decline of -12 oil rigs.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Freddie Mac says that the 30 year average mortgage rate fell to 6.23% from 6.26% last week.

The recent lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%. The low price on this last cycle to the downside has taken the rate down to 6.19%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major European indices are closing higher on the day. The gains were led by the Spain’s Ibex which increase by 1.36%.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +0.98%
• France’s CAC +0.88%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%
• Spain’s Ibex +1.36%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.01%

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major US indices are trading comfortably higher with the NASDAQ leading with a gain of 1.02%. The S&P index is up 0.93% in the Dow industrial average is up 0.90%.

US yields are mixed with the shorter end higher in the longer end lower.:

• 2-year yield 3.487%, +2.8 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.579%, +1.4 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.005%, +0.4 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.652%, -0.6 basis points.

In other markets:

• Crude oil is trading up $0.35 at $58.31.
• Gold is up $36 at $4167
• Silver is up $1.54 or 3.04% at $53.
• Bitcoin is up $500 at $87,836.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• High yield 3.781%
• WI level at the time of the auction 3.775%
• Tail 0.6 basis points versus 6 month average of -0.6 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.46X vs 6 month average of 2.56X
• Dealers 9.44% versus 6 month average of 9.2%
• Directs 30.27% versus 6 month average of 23.5%
• Indirects 56.65% versus 6 month average of 67.2%

AUCTION GRADE: C-/D+

Below average auction with low international demand. Domestic demand was fairly strong but came at a high yield above the WI level at the time of the auction.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.