Articles

Japan’s PM Takaichi promises to continue fiscal management, and adds while paying close attention to interest rate trends and other factors.

I think there may be a bit of random word generating going on here. This is just sound bite stuff.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s factory activity slipped back into contraction in November as momentum in production and domestic demand weakened, according to a private-sector survey released on Monday.

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, eased to 49.9 from 50.6 in October, missing forecasts and falling just below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

The downturn aligns with official PMI data released Sunday, which showed the sector shrinking for an eighth straight month.

Production stalled in November as new orders softened, extending a sluggish domestic demand trend that has weighed on industrial profits. While firms reported brighter overseas demand, with export orders rising at the fastest pace in eight months following the October U.S.–China trade truce, the improvement was not enough to offset weakness at home. Export prices slipped slightly amid heavy competition.

The survey pointed to renewed strains inside factories: job shedding returned, purchasing activity contracted for the first time since June, and firms ran down inventories at the quickest pace in nearly a year. Stocks of both inputs and finished goods declined sharply as producers avoided holding excess inventory in the face of softer demand.

Input costs rose due to higher metal prices, but manufacturers held back from passing them on, instead offering further discounts that pushed output charges lower.

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Over the weekend:

• China’s factory and service PMIs contract again as holiday boost fades, recovery softens

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction in November, though the pace of decline slowed, according to the final S&P Global PMI released Monday.

The headline index rose to 48.7,

• up from 48.2 in October
• broadly matching the flash estimate of 48.8.

While still below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction, the reading marks the slowest decline since August.

Weakness persisted across intermediate and investment-goods producers, while consumer goods showed a mild improvement. New orders continued to fall for the 30th consecutive month, reflecting subdued global conditions, tighter client budgets and muted capital investment. Automotive and semiconductor demand remained soft.

Input cost pressures intensified for a fourth straight month, driven by higher labour and raw-material expenses. Manufacturers lifted selling prices in response. Despite the current downturn, business sentiment reached a 10-month high, supported by expectations of new product launches and recovering demand, particularly in electronics and transport.

The survey noted that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recently approved ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package could help revive demand, especially in strategic sectors such as AI, though its impact will take time to filter through.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian Q3 business inventories -0.9% q/q

• expected 0%, prior +0.1%

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Optimism in the UK services sector fell at its fastest pace in three years in the three months to November, as persistent cost pressures squeezed profitability, according to the Confederation of British Industry. The CBI’s services optimism index slid to –50, down from –29 in August, while service volumes also weakened.

The industry is unlikely to find relief from the government’s 26 billion-pound tax package unveiled in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November 26 budget, the CBI said. Charlotte Dendy, head of economic surveys, warned that the budget “adds further costs to businesses,” including higher national insurance charges on salary-sacrifice pension contributions and no action on elevated energy costs.

A separate survey from the Institute of Directors painted a similarly bleak picture. Business sentiment improved only marginally after the budget, rising to –72 from –73 in early November, keeping confidence near record lows. The IoD survey primarily reflected smaller firms, with two-thirds of respondents employing fewer than 50 people.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s latest Ministry of Finance corporate survey showed a sharp slowdown in capital expenditure growth in the third quarter, even as company profits surged.

• Business spending rose 2.9% y/y, well below expectations of around 6% and down from 7.6% in Q2.
• Capex excluding software also increased 2.9%, missing forecasts and marking a clear deceleration.
• Corporate sales were broadly flat, up just 0.5% y/y, only marginally above estimates.
• The standout surprise came from profitability: company profits jumped 19.7% y/y, far exceeding expectations of 3.7% and rebounding from just 0.2% previously.
• The divergence — weak investment but strong earnings — highlights a cautious corporate stance amid economic uncertainty, despite healthier bottom-line performance.

The data will feed directly into GDP revisions and will be closely scrutinised ahead of the Bank of Japan’s December meeting, with policymakers watching for signs of durable investment momentum.

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In summary:

• Q3 capex +2.9% y/y, far below 5.9% expectations and down from 7.6% prior.

• Capex ex-software also +2.9%, missing 5.4% forecast.

• Company profits surged 19.7% y/y (vs 3.7% expected).

• Company sales +0.5% y/y, slightly above estimates.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks with Ukraine made “additional progress,” stressing that negotiations are focused not only on ending the war but ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security and prosperity. Rubio said the U.S. aims to help Ukraine emerge “safer, stronger and more prosperous than it has ever been,” building on discussions that began in Geneva and continued through the week. He noted the process remains “delicate and complicated,” with further engagement expected when U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Moscow.

Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov thanked the U.S. team, Rubio, Witkoff and Jared Kushner, for their “tremendous work,” saying Washington had been “super supportive.” He said the talks focused on Ukraine’s future as a “prosperous, strong” nation and described the meeting as “productive and successful.”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s manufacturing sector returned to growth in November.

51.6 in November, strongest since August

• from 49.7 in October
• the November preliminary was 51.6

Remarks from the report:

Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global
Market Intelligence

“The Australia Manufacturing PMI showed that the
goods producing sector returned to growth in the
penultimate month of the year. While modest, the pace
of improvement was the quickest in three months, driven
by fresh increases in both new business and output.
“Forward-looking indicators, including the New Orders
and Future Output indices, pointed to the likelihood for
growth to sustain in the near term. It was also positive to
see headcounts rising at a pace among the fastest so far
this year.

“Supply conditions remained challenging, however, with
goods producers facing the worst lengthening of delivery
times since last December amid supply constraints,
shipment delays and congestions at ports. That said,
prices were not immediately impacted as rates of
inflation eased in November.”

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AUD/USD is around 0.6540.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand Building Consents

-0.9% m/m

• prior +7.3%

NZD/USD is little changed around 0.5725.

Be careful of reading too much into the early pushing and shoving for FX at this time of the week:

• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 01 December 2025

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump confirms he had a phone call with Venezuelan President Maduro

• Says considers Venezuela not to be a friendly country
• Don’t read anything into me closing Venezuela airspace
• Doesn’t mean airstrike imminent

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Oil futures trade will open for the week at 2300 GMT / 1800 US Eastern time

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Some background info here from last week:

• ICYMI: Trump administration reportedly considers Venezuela strikes, oil-field seizures

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More from Trump:

• Says he knows who he will pick as next Fed chair

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) over the weekend confirmed China’s economy lost momentum in November as both factory and service-sector gauges slipped further into contraction, highlighting an uneven recovery and persistent strains in property-linked activity.

The official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2 from 49.0, its eighth straight month below 50, signalling continued weakness despite modest improvements in production and new orders.

• High-tech manufacturing stayed in expansion at 50.1, while energy-intensive industries posted a mild rebound.
• Small firms saw the strongest improvement in nearly six months, though large manufacturers softened.

Non-manufacturing activity was weaker. The services-and-construction PMI fell to 49.5, its first contraction since late 2022 and below forecasts.

• Officials attributed the pullback largely to the fading boost from October’s Golden Week holiday.
• Services were dragged by ongoing property-sector malaise, though areas such as rail transport, telecoms and financial services held above 55.
• Construction activity ticked up to 49.6 on stronger near-term expectations, but new non-manufacturing orders slumped to 45.7, underscoring fragile demand.
• Market sentiment improved modestly, with the expectations index rising to 53.1, led by metals and aerospace-related industries.

Overall, the composite PMI dipped to 49.7, reinforcing that China’s recovery remains fragile amid weak domestic confidence, subdued stimulus and persistent external headwinds.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.