Articles

China’s economy showed signs of stabilisation and gradual improvement in November, but authorities warned that external headwinds and persistent domestic imbalances continue to weigh on the outlook, signalling a readiness to step up policy support.

Speaking after the release of November activity data, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said economic conditions had “stabilised while improving,” reflecting firmer momentum in parts of industrial production and services. However, the official cautioned that changes in the external environment are having a deeper impact, underscoring ongoing pressure from global demand conditions, trade uncertainty and financial market volatility.

The spokesperson highlighted a growing tension between strong domestic supply capacity and weak demand, describing the imbalance as increasingly prominent. While production capacity in some sectors remains ample, subdued household and corporate demand continues to constrain pricing power and profitability. As a result, certain industries and firms are facing mounting operational difficulties.

The comments reinforce the view that China’s recovery remains uneven, with supply-side strength outpacing demand-side momentum. This imbalance has contributed to lingering deflationary pressures and has kept policymakers focused on supporting demand without reigniting financial risks.

In response, the NBS said authorities will step up both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policy adjustments, language that typically signals a willingness to deploy additional fiscal, monetary and structural support if conditions warrant. While no specific measures were outlined, the guidance suggests policymakers remain prepared to fine-tune stimulus to stabilise growth and cushion against external shocks.

The remarks are likely to reinforce market expectations for continued targeted support into early 2026, particularly if domestic demand fails to recover more decisively. For now, officials appear intent on maintaining stability while preserving flexibility to respond to a more challenging global backdrop.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s property investment plummeted to a 15.9% year-on-year decline in the first 11 months, a widening drop from the previous period.

• Property sales and new construction starts also continued to decrease, alongside a significant fall in funds raised by developers.

Urban area unemployment rate 5.10%

• same as October, 5.10%

–

Earlier:

• China debt crackdown pushes LGFVs into costly shadow loans, reviving hidden-risk worries
• USTR Greer calls for smaller, balanced China trade and tighter USMCA enforcement

• China November new house prices -0.4% m/m and -2.4% y/y

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China November 2025 house prices

China New Home Prices -0.39% m/m

• prior –0.45%
• for the y/y, -2.4% (prior -2.2%)

Used Homes Prices -0.66% m/m

• prior –0.66%

—

I seem to write something like this every month … This is a self feeding vicious cycle. Why buy a home when the price will soon fall? The indebted property sector continues to weigh on the Chinese economy. Stimulus and surprisingly resilient exports are a counter balance of sorts.

—

Earlier:

• China to issue ultra-long-term bonds to fund strategic priorities – weekend announcement
• China Vanke fails to secure delay on $284m bond payment, gets just 5 days breathing space

—

And, plenty of data to come from China soon:

• Economic and event calendar in Asia Monday, December 15, 2025: RBA, BoJ Tankan, China data

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK home asking prices fell by more than is typical for the time of year in early December, according to property website Rightmove, highlighting a subdued housing market around last month’s government budget.

• Rightmove said average asking prices for newly listed homes dropped 1.8% month-on-month in the four weeks to December 6, a steeper fall than the 10-year average decline of 1.4% for the period.
• Prices were also 0.6% lower than a year earlier (compared with November of -0.5% y/y)

The report adds to evidence of softer market conditions. The UK budget included plans for a new annual tax on homes valued above £2 million from April 2028.Rightmove said there were early signs of a post-budget pickup in sales activity at the top end of the London market.

Looking ahead, Rightmove expects a more stable economic backdrop to support a rebound in activity and around 2% house price growth in 2026.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s finance ministry said it plans to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds next year, with proceeds earmarked to support key national strategies and security-related initiatives.

In a statement released on Saturday, the ministry said funds will also be used to finance large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs, following a meeting to implement decisions from the Central Economic Work Conference.

The ministry did not disclose details on the specific strategic or major construction projects that will receive funding. It also reiterated its commitment to tackling local government debt risks, pledging to actively reduce existing liabilities and strictly prevent the accumulation of new hidden debt.

—

The announcement signals continued fiscal support for growth and industrial upgrading, though the lack of project detail may limit near-term market reaction.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Musk weighing in on nuclear reactors in a tweet:

• The Sun is an enormous, free fusion reactor in the sky. It is super dumb to make tiny fusion reactors on Earth.
• Even if you burned 4 Jupiters, the Sun would still round up to 100% of all power that will ever be produced in the solar system!!
• Stop wasting money on puny little reactors, unless actively acknowledging that they are just there for your pet science project jfc.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ukraine has signalled a major shift in its war aims, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offering to abandon Kyiv’s long-held ambition of joining NATO as peace talks with U.S. envoys showed signs of progress in Berlin.

Zelenskiy held more than five hours of discussions on Sunday with U.S. representatives, including Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as part of an intensified push to end the war with Russia. Talks are set to resume on Monday morning, with draft documents under consideration.

Witkoff said “a lot of progress was made” during discussions covering a proposed 20-point peace framework as well as economic and security issues, though few details were disclosed publicly. Zelenskiy is expected to comment once negotiations conclude.

Ahead of the talks, the Ukrainian leader said Kyiv could drop its NATO membership goal in exchange for firm Western security guarantees against future Russian attacks — a significant concession given NATO membership is written into Ukraine’s constitution. While the move aligns with one of Moscow’s core demands, Ukraine has continued to resist territorial concessions.

The talks were hosted by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with other European leaders expected in Germany on Monday. However, Germany’s defence minister cautioned that any security guarantees would need to be credible and enforceable to deter renewed Russian aggression.

—

Signs of progress in peace talks may support European risk sentiment and cap geopolitical risk premia, though uncertainty around security guarantees and territorial issues remains high. I’d emphasise that uncertainty does indeed remain high. This development is positive at the margin, but given Putin’s recalcitrance, it’s a minor impact only.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s services sector slipped deeper into contraction in November, according to the latest BNZ–BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI fell to 46.9 in November, down 1.5 points from October and marking the weakest reading since May 2025. The result remains well below the long-run survey average of 52.8, reinforcing the sector’s ongoing softness. (A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.)

All five sub-indices remained in contraction:

• Activity/Sales the weakest at 45.8
• New Orders/Business edged closer to stabilisation at 49.3 but remained below the breakeven mark
• Employment slipped further to 46.4.

Businesses continued to cite a challenging economic backdrop, pointing to subdued consumer confidence, high living costs, inflation, elevated interest rates and restrained spending as key drags on activity.

BNZ senior economist Doug Steel warned that, when combined with the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI), the composite indicators suggest downside risks to even modest economic growth expectations in early 2026.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Stock Market Wrap-Up: Tech Sector Tumbles, Dow Hangs On
• WSJ: Trump leaning toward Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed
• Crude oil settling lower by 0.28%
• European indices close lower but not bad relatively speaking
• Tech Wreck: Stocks continue to tumble with the NASDAQ now down -1.78%
• Fed’s Hammack: Balancing both sides of the Fed mandate is challenging.
• Goolsbee wants to wait. Cannot assume the current inflation will be transitory
• Fed’s Schmid Explains Dissent: “Inflation is Too Hot”
• FX technical outlook: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD set the tone into the North American session
• Fed Divided: Goolsbee Dissents on Rate Cut While Paulson Eyes Job Risks
• investingLive European FX news wrap: UK GDP misses, Gold extends gains

The currency markets finished the week on a mixed note. While the US Dollar found support against risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars—mirroring the sell-off in the Nasdaq—it struggled to gain ground against the Euro and Canadian Dollar. The greenback’s performance reflects a market caught between “safe-haven” flows and specific regional strength.

Closing Levels

• EUR/USD: 1.1740 (+0.02%) – The Euro managed a marginal gain against the dollar.

• USD/JPY: 155.82 (+0.16%) – The pair pushed higher, with the dollar showing strength against the Yen.

• GBP/USD: 1.3363 (-0.17%) – The Pound was one of the day’s underperformers, sliding back below the 1.34 handle.

• USD/CHF: 0.7958 (+0.09%) – The dollar gained slightly against the Swiss Franc.

• USD/CAD: 1.3767 (-0.01%) – The Loonie held its ground, outperforming most peers likely due to robust Canadian economic data released earlier in the day.

• AUD/USD: 0.6649 (-0.20%) – The Aussie was hit by the broader “risk-off” sentiment.

• NZD/USD: 0.5802 (-0.10%) – The Kiwi followed the Aussie lower.

Key Market Drivers in the forex today.

1. Canadian Dollar Resilience (USD/CAD)
The Canadian Dollar was a standout performer relative to other commodity currencies. While oil prices struggled, the Loonie was supported by a slew of strong domestic data.

• Building Permits: Surged +14.9% in October, smashing expectations.

• Capacity Utilization: Rose to 78.5% in Q3, signaling a tightening industrial sector.

• Wholesale Trade: Posted a +0.1% gain versus a forecasted decline.

2. Risk-Off Flows Hit Antipodeans (AUD & NZD)
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars were the weakest majors on the day, down 0.20% and 0.10% respectively. These “high-beta” currencies often act as a liquid proxy for global risk sentiment. With the Nasdaq tumbling -1.69% and the S&P 500 down -1.07%, investors rotated out of these growth-linked currencies.

3. Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) Firmness
Despite the drop in US equity markets (which typically strengthens the Yen), USD/JPY rose 0.16% to 155.82. The pair remains sensitive to the divergence between the Federal Reserve’s recent cut and the Bank of Japan’s slow-moving policy normalization.

US Bond Yields : Rising Across the Curve

Treasury yields are moving higher today, retracing the declines seen earlier in the week. The selling pressure has pushed yields up across the board, with the long end of the curve leading the move. Notably, the 30-year yield has climbed to its highest level since early September, driven by the market digesting a massive influx of supply—over $602 billion in Treasuries were sold this week—and reassessing the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook following Wednesday’s cut.

Current Yield Levels:

• 2-Year Yield: 3.545% (up +1.5 basis points)

• 5-Year Yield: 3.743% (up +2.8 basis points)

• 10-Year Yield: 4.178% (up +3.7 basis points)

• 30-Year Yield: 4.831% (up +4.2 basis points).

For the weeK, despite the Fed cut, the 2 year was the only one to see lower yields this week. :

• 2-Year Yield: -4.0 basis points

• 5-Year Yield: +2.7 basis points

• 10-Year Yield: +4.7 basis points

• 30-Year Yield: 5.6 basis points

Fed officials were open to speak after the black-out period expired. Speaking were Fed’s Hammack (non-voting member but hawk), Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee who dissented to no change, and Cleveland Pres. Schmid who also dissented to no change. Below is a summary of their comments:

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

President Hammack, who will become a voting member in 2026, aligned herself with the hawkish dissenters despite not casting a vote at this meeting. She emphasized the difficulty of the current economic moment, noting that while the labor market has been “gradually cooling,” inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target. Her comments suggest she would have preferred to keep rates unchanged to ensure price stability is fully restored.

• Balancing Act: Stated that balancing both sides of the Fed’s mandate (maximum employment and price stability) is currently “challenging.”

• Inflation Focus: Highlighted that inflation remains above target, justifying her alignment with the “no change” camp.

• Future Voter: Positioned herself as a hawkish voice heading into her voting rotation next year.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid

President Schmid was one of the two officials who dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged. He argued that the economy still has significant momentum and that the labor market appears to be in balance rather than deteriorating. His primary concern is that inflation is “too hot” and that current monetary policy may be only “modestly restrictive,” if at all, which risks undermining the Fed’s hard-won credibility on inflation.

• Policy Effectiveness: Questioned whether current rates are actually restrictive enough to bring inflation down effectively.

• Inflation Warning: Stated explicitly that “inflation is too hot” and warned policymakers not to become complacent about maintaining credibility.

• Economic Resilience: Observed that the economy is showing momentum and the job market seems largely in balance, countering the need for immediate cuts.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

President Goolsbee, typically known for more dovish views, dissented in favor of a “pause” to wait for more data. He expressed discomfort with “front-loading” rate cuts when inflation has stalled above target for years. Goolsbee argued that waiting until the first quarter of the year would have provided the necessary assurance that inflation was truly on a downward path without risking significant harm to a labor market he describes as stable.

• Patience on Cuts: Argued that waiting until Q1 would allow the Fed to be “assured inflation is coming down” rather than assuming current pressures are transitory.

• Labor Market Stability: Noted that the “low hiring and low firing” dynamic does not suggest a cyclical downturn, meaning there was no urgent need to cut to save jobs.

• Inflation Persistence: Highlighted concerning services inflation and emphasized that one cannot ignore that prices have been rising for four years.

For technical views on the major currency pairs going into the new week:

• USDJPY:
• AUDUSD:
• NZDUSD:
• USDCHF:
• USDCAD:
• EURUSD and GBPUSD:

Wrap the week up and put a bow on it.

Thank you for your support this week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Weekly Price Action

Crude oil futures settled the week on a soft note, closing at $57.44, down $0.16 or -0.28% for the day. For the week, the commodity saw significant selling pressure:

• Weekly Change: Down -4.54%, a decline of $3.12.

• The Highs: The week’s high was reached on Monday at $60.30.

• The Lows: Sellers pushed the price to a weekly low of $57.01 during Thursday’s trade.

The Fundamental Story

The sharp 4.5% drop this week was driven by a “perfect storm” of bearish supply data and easing geopolitical risk premiums that overpowered localized disruptions.

• The Supply Glut Narrative: The primary weight on prices this week was the growing consensus of a massive supply surplus heading into 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report forecasting a record oil glut for next year, driven by surging production from non-OPEC nations (like the U.S. and Canada) outpacing global demand.

• Geopolitical Risk Fade (Ukraine): Traders began removing the “war premium” from oil prices as peace talks regarding Ukraine gained traction. Reports that the White House is sending a representative to Europe for negotiations signaled a potential de-escalation, which reduced the fear of sudden supply shocks from the region.

• Production Restorations: Adding to the bearish supply picture, Iraq successfully restored production at a key oilfield that accounts for roughly 0.5% of global supply, further easing tightness in the physical market.

• Limited Support from Disruptions: There were bullish factors, but they failed to turn the tide. The U.S. seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, and Ukraine struck another vessel in Russia’s “shadow fleet,” but market participants largely ignored these supply threats, focusing instead on the broader macro picture of oversupply.

Technical Analysis: Testing Critical Support

The price action is currently testing a critical floor on the hourly chart, focusing on a low swing area between $57.10 and $57.39. This zone is now the “line in the sand” for near-term direction.

The Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):

• Trigger: Getting and staying below the $57.10 – $57.39 support zone would significantly increase the bearish bias.

• Target: A confirmed break here would have traders looking toward the October low at $55.96 as the next major downside objective.

The Bullish Scenario (Hold & Bounce):

• Trigger: If the price can hold support in this swing area, buyers may look to rotate back higher.

• Target: The immediate upside target is $58.13.

• Key Resistance: Traders must also watch the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at $58.28, which is moving quickly toward that $58.13 level and will act as a stiff ceiling for any recovery.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• India’s inflation rate increases to 0.71% in November, but the Rupee continues to bleed
• Interest rate expectations turn more hawkish for most major central banks except the Fed
• Gold extends gains after key technical breakout, putting all-time highs in sight
• Nifty 50 recovers some losses on dovish Powell, but it’s not out of the woods just yet
• The British Pound falls on weaker than expected GDP data sealing the case for a rate cut
• FX option expiries for 12 December 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?

It’s been a very light session in terms of data releases and newsflow. The main highlight was the UK GDP which missed expectations and weighed on the pound. Traders added to BoE rate cuts bets, increasing the total easing by the end of 2026 from 57 bps to 61 bps.

We also got the final CPI readings for Germany, France and Spain but there were no surprises there as the data came out in line with the preliminary figures.

The most notable mover in the session was gold. The precious metal continues to rally after yesterday’s key technical breakout, and it’s now getting very close to the all-time high set in October. The fall in real yields following Powell’s dovish tone is a good tailwind.

In other markets, US equities continue to mostly range, while maintainig a bullish bias. The bear-steepening in US Treasuries has resumed after Powell’s press conference, with the 10Y-2Y spread close to breaking the April 2025 highs.

The US dollar recovered some of yesterday’s losses, although it looks more like a technical pullback given the lack of catalysts today. We might even see some pullbacks before the NFP given the expected high volatility.

In the American session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of Fed speakers. Wish you all a nice weekend!

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:

• India’s inflation rate Y/Y increased to 0.71% vs 0.70% expected in November
• The prior release saw inflation falling to a record low of 0.25%
• The RBI’s inflation target is 4% with a +/-2% tolerance band
• Inflation remains far below the central bank’s target

INFLATION REPORT:

India’s inflation rate increased to 0.71% in November after falling to 0.25% in October. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation noted that the increase in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of
November was mainly attributed to increase in inflation of Vegetables,
Egg, Meat and fish, Spices and Fuel and light.

Food makes up the largest share of India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket (typically around 46%). This means that swings in food inflation influence significantly overall inflation. A government review might lower slightly the weight in the upcoming revision in January 2026.

MARKET REACTION:

The INR strengthened a bit following the release but quickly gave back the gains and extended the losses against the US dollar as the USD/INR pair continues to push into new record highs.

Next week, we have the US NFP and CPI reports. Right now, the market is leaning on the dovish side for the Fed, so a surprisingly strong employment report should trigger a hawkish repricing and give the US dollar a boost.

The big picture trend remains heavily skewed to the upside and probably only a major positive breakthrough on the US-India trade front could give the Indian Rupee a strong short-term boost.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.