Articles

• Prior +0.2%
• GDP Q1 Y/Y +1.2% vs +1.1% expected
• Prior +1.2%

Economists expected an improvement due to tariff-driven frontloading after companies and consumers in the US stockpiled European goods before the tariffs started.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• China needs to adapt to changing situations.
• Urges measures to stabilize employment, markets and expectations.
• China to adjust economic plan based on global change.
• To promote transformation of traditional industries.
• We will study and roll out a batch of balanced and accessible policy measures for people’s livelihoods.

There’s nothing new here. Chinese officials continue to repeat the same old stuff but we haven’t really seen any strong action yet.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The other German state releases around the same time:

• Hesse CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y prior
• Brandenburg CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y prior
• Saxony CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y prior
• North Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y prior
• Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.4% vs +2.2% y/y prior

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -10.7

As mentioned for the Swiss KOF Index previously, the consumer and business sentiment indicators are not surprising at all given the uncertainty around US trade policy and the hit to global growth.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.1%
• GDP Y/Y +0.6% vs +0.4% y/y expected
• Prior +0.6%

The agency notes “The first quarter of 2025 has had one working day less with respect
to the previous quarter and two working days less than the same quarter
of previous year.

The quarter on quarter change is the result of an increase of value
added in both agriculture, forestry and fishing and industry, whereas
the contribution of services was null. From the demand side, there is a
positive contribution by the domestic component (gross of change in
inventories) and a negative one by the net export component.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -0.2%
• GPD Q1 Y/Y -0.2% vs -0.2% prior

The agency notes “The gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of
2025 compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 – following adjustment for
price, seasonal and calendar variations – after decreasing at the end
of 2024 (-0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the third
quarter of 2024). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that both household final consumption expenditure and capital formation were higher than in the previous quarter.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 26k
• Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected
• Prior 6.3%

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• French Finance Minister Lombard says he discussed idea of reciprocal zero tariffs with Scott Bessent, and Bessent told him this was not unrealistic.

This would be great news if we eventually get to such resolution. The market meanwhile continues to rally on positive expectations as the de-escalation remains the trend.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 103.9 (revised to 103.2)

No surprise here as business confidence got hit all over the world after the April 2 announcement. You can see in the chart below how the business confidence just kept on improving steadily with the SNB rate cuts. Now that we have the trade war uncertainty and global growth slowdown expectations, the confidence is falling.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.9%

The agency notes “This new rise in prices should be explained by the increase in services
prices, in particular transport, and food. Conversely, energy prices should fall again
in April, while prices of manufactured products and tobacco should remain virtually
unchanged over the month.”

Inflation hasn’t been a problem for France for a long time and that’s also why you’ve been hearing the French ECB policymaker Villeroy delivering dovish takes and supporting rate cuts.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese markets will be closed from tomorrow (1 May) until Monday next week (5 May), in observance of Labor Day. However, that won’t halt any plays on US-China trade relations. But as things stand, we’re not seeing either side be willing to pick up the phone. In any case, we should be seeing a bit more of a quiet period from China during the interim – barring any prerecorded remarks fed to the state media. The question is, will Trump use this down time to push his own agenda?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.3%

The bulk of the decline owes to energy prices. If you strip that out, import prices were only seen down 0.3% on the month. Looking at the breakdown, there were also falls in prices for intermediate goods (-0.4%) and capital goods (-0.4%).

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.