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• Prior manufacturing +17
• Non-manufacturing vs +27 prior

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We’ve got a bit of data to chew on to kick off the Tuesday session, with the focus squarely on Japan early on and China a bit later.

It’s going to be an interesting start to the day.

First up at the top of the hour, we get the Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index. It’s a monthly sentiment check that often leads the official BoJ Tankan. The prior read was 17 for manufacturing and 27 for non-manufacturing.

Shortly after at 2350 GMT, keep an eye on the Japanese Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) for November.

• Monthly expected: 0.3% (Prior 0.4%)

• Yearly expected: 2.7% (Prior 2.7%)

Reminder: The BOJ decision is next week and a hike is mostly expected.

The Main Event: China CPI

The real mover comes later in the evening (0130 GMT) when China drops its inflation numbers.

The market is looking for a rise in CPI year-over-year to 0.7% (from 0.2% prior). If we see a miss here, the “China deflation” narrative is going to roar back into the headlines, and we could hear more talk about stimulus (that talk has restarted lately).

PPI is expected to remain deep in negative territory at -2.0% y/y.

Complete schedule:

2200 GMT

• JP: Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index (Dec) – Prior: 17

• JP: Reuters Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (Dec) – Prior: 27

2250 GMT

• JP: Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (Nov) – Exp: 0.3% / Prior: 0.4%

• JP: Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (Nov) – Exp: 2.7% / Prior: 2.7%

0130 GMT

• CN: PPI (YoY) (Nov) – Exp: -2.0% / Prior: -2.1%

• CN: CPI (YoY) (Nov) – Exp: 0.7% / Prior: 0.2%

• CN: CPI (MoM) (Nov) – Exp: 0.2% / Prior: 0.2%

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Crude -4800K
• Prior was +2480K
• Gasoline +7000K
• Distillates +1000K

Expectations for tomorrow’s EIA report

• Crude -2310K
• Gasoline +4518K
• Distillates +1943K

WTI is struggling this week and finished lower by 49-cents on Tuesday. The crude number here is nice but that’s a fat build in gasoline and comes after a 4.5mb build in last week’s EIA data.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Ext migration and visitors +9.4% vs +9.6% prior
• Estimated migrant arrivals 2400 vs 1800 prior

Not exactly blowing the doors off but the population is steadily rising and tourists continue to love New Zealand, aside from the long travel times.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• US indices close mixed. Russell 2000 rates to new intraday record level
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Highlights Trump’s commitment to lasting peace in Ukraine
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.25
• RBNZ signals updated – driven approach as policy Path remains uncertain
• U.S. Treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.175%
• Major European indices close the session with mixed results.Silver trades at all-time high
• U.S. Economic Data Finally Resumes After Shutdown: Key CPI and Jobs Reports Rescheduled
• Silver technicals: Price moves to a new all-time high. What is the next target?
• JOLTS October job openings 7.600M vs 7.150M estimate
• WH Economic Advisor Hassett: There is more room than a 25 basis point cut
• Weekly ADP 4-week average employment change +4.75K versus -13.5K in last weekly release
• The USD is little changed. One more day to the Fed rate decision
• Gold technical analysis video: Bulls are back after the stop hunt below $4200
• investingLive European FX news wrap: JPY keeps weakening, Trump considering tariff changes

The JOLTS job openings was released for the month of October (so during the shutdown).

• Job openings rose modestly — the number moved up to 7.67 million, slightly higher than September’s 7.66 million.

• Hiring activity stagnated — total hires remained around 5.15 million, with a hires rate of about 3.2%.

• Worker confidence fell — the quits rate dropped to 1.8%, one of the lowest readings in several years. Meanwhile, layoffs rose modestly, indicating heightened risk or caution among employers.

The uptick in job openings suggests that demand for labor hasn’t collapsed — there remain companies willing to post positions. At first glance, that’s healthy. But the flat hiring numbers and a steep drop in quits tell a different story: many of those jobs are going unfilled (or being posted but not filled), and workers are less willing to move jobs.

In short, this isn’t a booming hiring environment; it’s more of a “no-hire, no-fire” stalemate: employers may be listing jobs, but they’re not aggressively hiring — and workers aren’t jumping to new roles. That signals an increasingly cautious labor market, even if demand remains weakly positive.

The monthly jobs report for November will not be released until December 15. The BLS reported that the December report will be released on January 9th which is closer to catching up.

Of interest this week in addition to the FOMC rate decision tomorrow is the initial jobs claims data. Recall that was week, the fell below the 200,000 level to the since 2022.

Was it the Thanksgiving Day holiday seasons. It could also be the “no fire” side of the equation.

The odd’s on favorite for Fed Chair, Kevin Hassett spoke today and said:

• There is “plenty of room” for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, and he believes cuts could go beyond just a standard 25-basis-point move.
• He emphasized that any decision should be “data-driven” — that is, based on economic indicators (inflation, growth, employment), not predetermined or politically driven.
• Asked hypothetically if he would accept pressure from political leaders to cut rates, Hassett insisted he would rely on his own judgment and follow the data, even if that meant disagreeing with such requests, and added that Trump trusts him (TBD on that comment).

Silver surged to a new all-time record high today, breaking above the $60 per ounce mark for the first time in history and reaching intraday levels near $60.56. The rally reflects a powerful combination of tightening global supply, surging industrial demand, and rising investor interest.

Silver has now more than doubled in value this year, far outpacing gold and marking one of the strongest precious-metal performances in decades. Structural supply shortages—paired with robust consumption from solar, EV, and electronics industries—have added upward pressure. The next key target comes at a Fibonacci extension target (200%) at $63.12. The price today reached $60.80.

The price of gold moved up $22.30 or 0.43% to $4212.90.

In the US stock market today, the Dow and S&P moved lower, NASDAQ was marginally higher, and Russell 2000 traded to a new record intraday level, but closed below the highest close

• Dow industrial average is 179.03 points or -0.3% to47560.29.
• S&P index fell -6 .00 point or -0.09% to 6840.41
• NASDAQ index rose 30.58 points or 0.13% to 23576.49.
• Russell 2000 rose by .26 points or 0.21% to 2526.24. The all-time record high close comes in 2531.15

The FOMC rate decision will be announced at 2 PM tomorrow with expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%. Also released will be the summary of economic projections which gives the guesstimates from Fed officials for the Fed funds rate at the end of 2026 along with GDP, employment rate, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation.

In September:

• Fed funds rate at the end the of 2026 was estimate that 3.4%
• GDP was estimated at 1.8%
• Unemployment rate was estimated at 4.4%
• PCE was expected 2.6%
• Core PCE was expected at 2.6%.

The Fed Chair will give his summary of the meeting and answer questions during the normal press conference starting at 2:30 PM ET>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Appreciated the opportunity to speak this morning with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko
• Discussion highlighted Trumps commitment to lasting peace in Ukraine.
• Discussed treasuries sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft.

Earlier today, Zelenskyy spoke and said:

• Wants to discuss restoration of Ukraine as part of peace plan preparation with US.
• Is ready to hold elections US and European unity security during the process.
• If securities is guaranteed, would be held next 60 days and 90 days. Will is parliament to prepare legislative framework to make elections possible during martial law

Meanwhile Pres. Trump said he would give Zelenskyy “days” to respond to peace proposal.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.175%

• WI level at the time of the auction 4.175%
• Tail 0.0 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.0 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of2.51X
• DIrects 20.96% vs 6 month average of 20.5%
• Indirects 70.24% vs 6 month average of 69.5%
• Dealers 8.81% versus 6 month average of 10.0%

AUCTION GRADE: C+/B-

The 10 year note auction came in with a 0.0 basis point tail which is precisely the six-month average. The bid to cover was just marginally higher than the six-month average. The domestic the bidders were just above the six-month average while the in directs were also just above the six-month average. As a result the dealers were saddled with about 1.2% less than the norm.

That was good enough for a C+/B- grade in my view.

There is little reaction. However, in general, the 10 year yield is comfortably above the 4.0% level at 4.17%. Recall that toward the end of November, the yield reached a low of 3.962%. The current level is near the high levels going back to September 26 and is also near a swing area between 4.17% and 4.199%. Move above that area and we could see a further pop in yields.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

European Indices End Mixed as Trading Winds Down

The major European stock indices closed the session mixed, with performance varying across the region. Germany’s DEU40 led to the upside, gaining 0.49% at 24,162.66, while France’s CAC40 lagged, falling 0.69% to 8,052.52. The UK’s FTSE 100 (UKX) hovered near unchanged levels, slipping just 0.03% to 9,642.00.

Spain’s market data included duplicate readings for the IBEX 35, both showing the index up 0.13% at 16,734.49, confirming a modest gain on the day. Italy’s FTMIB also posted a respectable rise of 0.33%, closing at 43,574.51.

U.S. stock indices are mixed as London and European traders call it a day

As European traders head for the exits, U.S. equities are mixed in early trading.

• Dow Jones (DJI): 47,724.12, down 0.03%

• S&P 500 (SPX): 6,854.43, up 0.12%

• Nasdaq (IXIC): 23,588.28, up 0.18%

The modest moves reflect a cautious tone ahead of today’s Treasury auction and lingering macro uncertainty.

U.S. Treasury Yields head higher ahead of 10 year auction

The U.S. Treasury market is showing small upward moves in yields across much of the curve:

• 2-year: 3.6043% (+0.021 basis points)

• 5-year: 3.7691% (+0.017 basis points)

• 10-year: 4.1741% (unchanged)

• 30 year 4.800%, (-1.5 basis points)

Further out the curve, long-end yields dipped slightly, with the 20-year and 30-year down by 0.012 and 0.014 respectively.

A key focal point today will be the U.S. Treasury’s auction of $39 billion in 10-year notes at 1:00 PM ET, which could influence yield direction and risk sentiment into the afternoon session.

Commodities & Crypto: Silver Breaks Above $60 for the First Time Ever

The commodities complex is uneven, with crude oil under pressure while precious metals surge.

• US Oil: $58.22, down 1.05%

• Gold: $4,206.095, up 0.37%

• Silver: $60.115 — up 3.40%, trading above $60 for the first time ever

• Bitcoin: $93,727, up 3.40%

Silver’s breakout above the $60 mark marks a historic milestone, underscoring strong investment flows into precious metals as inflation hedges and volatility dampeners.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Government data releases are catching up following the 46-day shutdown.

• November CPI arrives December 18, while December CPI and real earnings will be released on January 13.

• January jobs report shifts to January 9, restoring a near-normal schedule for labor-market data.

As the government works its way out of the 46-day shutdown, the economic data calendar is finally beginning to realign. The BLS will release the delayed November CPI report on December 18, and has now scheduled the December CPI for January 13. On that same day, the agency will publish real earnings for December, helping fill in the inflation-adjusted income picture.

The U.S. Employment Situation report—normally released on the first Friday of each month—will instead arrive on Friday, January 9, roughly one week later than usual. That timing marks a return to a more typical rhythm for labor-market reporting, suggesting that at least the jobs calendar will be back on track as the backlog clears.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 7.227M
• JOLTs job openings 7.670M vs 7.150M estimate

• October hires were little changed, holding at 5.1 million.

• The hire rate remained steady at 3.2%.

• No significant hiring shifts occurred across any major industries

• In October, total separations were little changed at 5.1 million and a 3.2% rate.

• Total separations fell in health care & social assistance (-111,000) and the federal government (-34,000).

• Quits in October were little changed at 2.9 million with a 1.8% rate.

• Quits were down 276,000 over the year.

• Quits decreased in:

  • Accommodation & food services (-136,000)

  • Health care & social assistance (-114,000)

  • Federal government (-25,000)

• Federal government quits hit a series high of 46,000 in September.

• Quits increased in:

  • Arts, entertainment & recreation (+38,000)

  • Information (+21,000)

The quits is at the lowest since 2020. That is indicative of a jobs market that has some anxiety. People tend to quit jobs when they are confident of getting another job. That is not the case now. However, it was for October in the midst of a shutdown

We saw initial jobless claims last week move below 200K. It was Thanksgiving week which can be influenced by seasonals but we will see. The ADP data today, saw a move back to positive after being negative more recently (with the ADP monthly coming in negative).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The White House economic advisor Hassett is speaking and says:

• Plenty of room for the Fed to cut rates
• Says that there is a play room to cut more than 25 basis points.
• Pres. Trump will make a choice but could change his mind
• Says that it’s important for the Fed chair to look at data.
• Says that Treasury Secretary Bessette is at the top was for running the Fed, but he does not want the job.
• If Fed chair, would make decisions based on his judgment. Says Trump trusts that.
• Labor growth is a little slower than it has been

What’s particularly interesting right now is the intense focus on economic data. Critics such as Miran and Bessent argue that the current Federal Reserve is not forward-looking enough, saying policymakers should be anticipating economic shifts rather than reacting to them. In contrast, Kevin Hassett’s is now aligning more closely with the Fed’s existing framework—including the oft criticized Chair Jerome Powell, who repeatedly emphasizes that the Fed remains data-dependent in setting policy.

Betting markets still support Hassett. On Polymarket, traders currently assign Hassett a 76% probability of becoming the next Fed leader—down from about 88% yesterday, but still firmly in the lead. Kevin Warsh, by comparison, sits at roughly 12%, suggesting market confidence remains strongly tilted toward Hassett despite recent volatility.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US is to allow Nvidia H200 chip exports to China.

• Some analysts view such a move as a “strategic win-win,” arguing that allowing H200 shipments would sustain China’s reliance on U.S. AI infrastructure — and potentially slow down the adoption of domestic alternatives
• The H200 is more capable than the chip China is currently allowed to buy (the H20), which gives it technical appeal for high-demand applications (large-model training, inference, data-center use cases)

Although good news, Jensen Huang, recently said he is not sure China would accept H200 even if restrictions are eased — Beijing may prefer home-grown chips or chips already certified under export rules. Chinese firms and regulators appear increasingly focused on domestic AI-chip makers (like Cambricon Technologies) and building self-sufficiency. There’s growing pressure—both economic and political—on companies not to rely solely on foreign hardware.

Nvidia shares have moved higher and are up $3.90 or 2.15% at $186.46.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.