Articles

• Monthly ADP -32k
• Last weekly report -13.5K.
• The weekly 4-week average is 4.75K

From ADP:

For the four weeks ending November 22, 2025, U.S. private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER).

Three times a month, ADP Research publishes preliminary estimates of the week-over-week change in U.S. employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP’s finely tuned, high-frequency data. Data is seasonally adjusted and made available with a two-week lag.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Trump: May make tariff changes to lower some prices
• US November NFIB small business optimism index 99.0 vs 98.3 expected
• China set to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips – FT
• ECB’s Nagel: AI offers tools to process vast datasets and can improve predictive accuracy
• The JPY is free-falling again despite incoming BoJ rate hike and constant jawboning
• BoJ Governor Ueda: Believe the economy will go back to positive growth in Q4 and beyond
• Germany October trade balance €16.9 billion vs €15.6 billion expected
• FX option expiries for 9 December 10am New York cut
• Japan PM Takaichi: Specifics of monetary policy up to BoJ
• BoJ Governor Ueda: Certainty of BoJ’s outlook materialising is increasing gradually
• What are the main events for today?
• Japan PM Takaichi: Will take appropriate actions on FX if necessary
• investingLive Asia-pacific market news wrap: RBA introduces a clear hawkish bias
• RBA’s Bullock: If data suggests inflation not slowing, that will be considered in February

The most notable mover in the session was the Japanese Yen. The JPY continues to weaken across the board despite the incoming BoJ rate hike and constant jawboning from Japanese officials.

Part of the problem could be that the BoJ waited far too long and it’s now looking to deliver a cautious rate hike right when other major central banks are shifting to a hawkish stance.

The market has also already priced in a rate hike this month and at very least another in 2026, so it’s hard to see the BoJ outhawking the market pricing, leaving limited room for JPY appreciation on a hawkish repricing.

We also got a report from Financial Times saying that Chinese regulators have been discussing ways to permit limited access to H200 chips. No final decision had been made yet though. For context, Trump yesterday announced that the US will allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China.

US equity indices weakned a bit on the headline but recovered quickly as this news isn’t new. In fact, China has been implementing restrictions on foreign AI chips like Nvidia, AMD and so on in state-funded data centers to boost domestic tech as they compete with the US.

Lastly, Politico published an interview with Trump in which he said that he may consider changes to tariffs to lower prices. He also said that the willingness to lower interest rates would be a litmus test in the choice of a new Fed chair.

Lowering tariffs further would be certainly bullish for the global economy but at this point it could also stoke inflation given that central banks responded to the negative shock from tariffs with lower interest rates. Therefore, it might be bullish in the short-term but if things get hot, central banks will be forced to tighten again, and that would be negative for risk assets.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Would make support for immediately slashing interest rates as a litmus test in the choice of a new Fed chair (well, duh)
• Ukrain hasn’t had an election in a long time
• No question Russia has a stronger position
• On Ukraine: Europe is not handling it well
• Trump declined to rule out troops in Venezuela
• Could extend anti-drug military operations to Mexico and Colombia

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 98.2
• Full report here

An increase in those expecting real sales to be higher contributed most to the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from October to 91. An increase in owners reporting uncertainty about capital expenditure plans over the next three to six months was the primary driver of the rise in the Uncertainty Index.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers. Despite this, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior €15.3 billion
• Exports +0.1% vs -0.5% expected
• Prior +1.4%
• Imports -1.2% vs -0.5% expected
• Prior +3.1%
• Full report here

The German trade surplus expanded in October as exports rose by 0.1% on the month while imports fell by 1.2%. This is not market-moving data and won’t change anything for the ECB.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Won’t comment on talks with Ueda
• BoJ needs to communicate with the government, but specifics of monetary policy should be left with BoJ
• Expects BoJ to carry out appropriate monetary policies to achieve its price target
• Government bears ultimate responsibility for macroeconomic policy

I feel like she wants to calm the markets by stressing that BoJ is independent in setting monetary policy.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Will make appropriate economic, fiscal decisions at appropriate timing while taking into account interest rates, FX and prices
• Watching market moves closely
• Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals
• Difficult to single out impact of fiscal policy on interest rates, FX as they are determined by various factors

Feels like Japanese officials are really getting worried about the JPY weakness despite the incoming BoJ rate hike. I think part of the problem is that they’ve waited for too long and are now considering rate hikes right when the others are shifting to a hawkish stance too.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• RBA decision: Case rate set at 3.60% vs 3.60% expected
• RBA’s Bullock: Discussed circumstances in which we might have to tighten
• Full text of the RBA decision on Dec 9, 2025
• Australian November NAB business conditions +7 vs +9 prior
• UK BRC November retail sales +1.2% y/y vs +1.5% prior
• Trump threatens Mexico tariffs due water treaty violations

Markets:

• Gold flat
• WTI crude oil down 21-cents to $58.67
• US 10-year yields up 0.4 bps to 4.17%
• S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• Nikkei up 0.2%
• AUD leads, CHF lags

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gambling, sports betting, crypto speculation and now online trading are part of a bigger trend of deregulation of vice and the lack of predictable pathways to succeed in the modern world.

Here is a great essay from John Ehrett on what has young men struggling so badly and turning towards so many high risk behviours. The argument is that the economy is increasingly random. It argues that for Gen Z men, the link between effort and reward has broken, turning life into a low-probability trade where many are checking out and others are taking wild risks for a chance at a comfortable life.

• College admissions are now opaque and random, and there’s a deep sense that it’s rigged by alumni and other connections
• Hiring and resume keywords are an algorithmic black box
• Dating apps have turned romance into a high-frequency trading environment

I’m not sure I agree with some of his solutions but the system needs to stop feeling like a slot machine. The “social contract” has stopped working for young people and it can’t last.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The latest yuan fix is out.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior business conditions +9
• Business confidence +1 vs +6 prior

National Australia Bank, one of the country’s “Big Four” banks. This survey combines three components—trading conditions, profitability, and employment—into a single index that shows whether business activity is expanding or contracting.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +1.5%
• Total sales +1.4% y/y vs +1.6% prior

A separate survey from Barclays put UK consumer spending down 1.1% in November, worse than -0.8% in October. It was also the worst y/y reading since Feb 2021.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.