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It’s a busy session ahead for data.

China’s April PMIs are expected to fall back a little from March, both the official and the unofficial. Trump tariffs should continue to bit in the months ahead. I posted on some analyst takes on jobs and economic activity:

• Goldman Sachs says Trump tariffs could endanger 16 million export jobs in China
• Hidden damage: Trump tariffs threaten bigger blow to China’s economy, Nomura warns

Australian CPI data is due. The consensus has built for an Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut in May:

• “Lock it in: RBA to cut 25bps in May” – Westpac forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• US March advance goods trade balance -161.99BB vs -147.85B prior
• US April consumer confidence 86.0 vs 87.5 expected
• JOLTS March job openings 7.192M vs 7.480M estimate
• US advanced wholesale inventories for March 0.5% versus 0.5% last month. Estimate 0.0%
• Lutnick: Tariff adjustments give automakers time to grow US plants
• Trump says he will focus on the economy
• Rubio: It’s now time for Russia and Ukraine to submit concrete proposals
• USTR: Europe is not engaging well on tariff talks
• Lutnick: I have a deal with a country, I’m just waiting for foreign parliament to approve
• The market is now pricing in a full 125 bps in Fed easing in the next year
• Final Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 estimate -2.7% vs -2.4% prior
• Dallas Fed April service sector outlook index -19.4 vs -11.3 prior
• China waives ethane tariffs, as rumored last week
• US February Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +4.5% y/y vs +4.7% expected
• Bessent: We want a combo of long-term tariff revenue and lower barriers
• Goldman Sachs: Revising our USD/CAD forecasts lower

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down $1.79 to $60.26
• US 10-year yields down 4.6 bps to 4.665%
• Gold down $18 to $3322
• S&P 500 up 0.6%
• USD leads, AUD lags

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P index rose for it 6th consecutive day. Yesterday the NASDAQ index snapped a five day went streak with a modest point. Over all the major indices were up in trading today. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• Dow industrial average rose 300.03 points or 0.75% at 40527.62.
• S&P index up 32.08 points or 0.58% at 5560.83.
• NASDAQ index rose 95.18 points or 0.55% at 17461.32.

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 10.96 points or 0.56% at 1976.51.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is speaking in an interview with Fox ‘News’:

• No trade deal is done until Trump announces it
• Trump needs to sign off on 18 key trade deals, he is involved in talks
• There is a plan for changes to auto tariffs
• The tax deal will make auto loans for US-made cars deductible

Bessent saying the big T needs to ‘sign off’ on 18 deals makes it sounds like the deals have been done. They have not.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• “If there Is no progress, US will step back as mediators in this process”

I pray this war ends but Russia is in an interesting spot here. They can stall and it sounds like Trump would possibly turn to secondary sanctions if it falls apart but at the same time, he would drop military support for Ukraine, or at least limit it. If that’s the case, Russia could calculate it could win the war outright in time.

That second scenario would be bullish for oil prices, particularly if the US went hard on Russia secondary sanctions.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• If auto makers can’t get parts we don’t want to penalize them
• There is great support for a tax deal
• Not at all worried about the auto industry
• India coming along great, think we have a deal on tariffs
• He will visit Africa
• He will speak to Australians

More signs point to the first tariff deal being with India, as I speculated.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A notable detail from Howard Lutnick’s interview on CNBC today was that the US has a trade deal with one country ready to go — pending ratification from a country’s parliament and leadership.

That was followed up by Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino who wrote that “word on Wall Street” was that it was India or South Korea.

Two things point to India:

1) A hint from earlier today

Earlier today Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they were one of the easiest countries to negotiate with because they have so many tariffs. That meant the US could ask for them to be taken down and the ask was relatively clear. With non-tariff barriers, it can get more difficult and complicated.

2) The structure of parliament

Because the Union cabinet in India can implement a tariff-cutting deal by executive notification that only has to be tabled in Parliament, not approved by a full vote, the ruling National Democratic Alliance can bring a U-S-India tariff package into force in a few weeks to a couple of months after signature. Because of the structure of government, opposition parties would have to actively defeat it, rather than passing it and the NDA have enough seats to block that path.

South Korea’s parliament is controlled by the opposition and it’s very contentious at the moment. Even with some cooperation, it would take 6-12 months to approve because of hearings, studies and public consultations. A previous US deal that wasn’t contentious took 5 months to approve, though you could argue the US could waive tariffs before approval if it was on track.

All told: Bet on India if you have to pick a spot.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This isn’t a big surprise given the politics and reality in Europe, along with its clout. The US seems to be trying to use the UK as a wedge but all trade negotiations in the EU are tough.

The deadline that matters for Europe is the 90 days after Liberation Day. If the US ramps up tariffs back to 20%, it could quickly turn into a China-like situation.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• All of the deals will be incredibly smart and incredibly thoughtful
• If we cut our trade deficit in half, that’s 2 percentage points of GDP
• Americans are going to work in factories as technicians
• You’re going to see the greatest domestic resurgence in auto manufacturing in the next two years, and I’ll wear it

The GDP math is such a tiresome argument. If you gain on the trade deficit by charging people people $2000 for an iPhone built domestically, then they won’t have that money to spend on other domestic goods/services.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Synopsis:
Goldman Sachs has revised its USDCAD forecasts lower, citing stronger-than-expected Canadian data, a supportive fiscal policy stance, and diminished expectations for Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cuts. While Canada’s close ties to the U.S. may limit broader gains on the crosses, Goldman expects the Canadian dollar to outperform the U.S. dollar through the remainder of 2025.

Key Drivers Behind the Revision

• Emerging Trade War Effects
  Canada’s recent payrolls report may be the first sign that the U.S.-led trade war is beginning to weigh on hard economic data beyond the U.S.

• BoC Defers to Fiscal Support
  The BoC is emphasizing fiscal policy—not monetary easing—as the primary buffer against trade-related growth risks. This stance reduces the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts.

• CAD Supportive Backdrop
  A combination of less dovish BoC policy expectations and proactive government stimulus is strengthening the outlook for the Canadian dollar, especially versus the USD.

• USDCAD Forecast Revisions
  Goldman Sachs’ updated projections are:
  • 3-month: 1.36 (previous: 1.40)
  • 6-month: 1.35 (previous: 1.39)
  • 12-month: 1.34 (previous: 1.38)

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs is growing more confident in the CAD’s relative strength against the U.S. dollar, supported by macroeconomic stability and policy alignment. However, due to Canada’s close economic ties with the U.S., broader CAD gains on cross-currency pairs may remain limited.

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This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices ended the session with mixed results. Italy’s FTSE MIB led the way, rising 1.09%, supported by strength in auto and banking stocks. Reports suggesting auto tariffs may be less severe than expected helped lift sentiment, with notable gains from Stellantis (+4.0%) and Iveco (+2.3%). Banks also performed strongly, including UniCredit (+1.3%), Intesa Sanpaolo (+1.4%), Mediobanca (+3.6%), Monte dei Paschi (+2.7%), and Banca Generali (+2.2%).

Elsewhere:

• German DAX: +0.80%

• UK FTSE 100: +0.55%

• France’s CAC 40: -0.24%

• Spain’s Ibex 35: -0.66%

As European traders wrap up for the day, U.S. markets are modestly higher. The Dow Jones leads with a 0.5% gain, while the S&P 500 is up 0.14% and the Nasdaq is slightly firmer by 0.06%.

U.S. Treasury yields are moving lower across the curve:

• 2-year: 3.666% (-1.9 bps)

• 5-year: 3.783% (-3.1 bps)

• 10-year: 4.181% (-3.5 bps)

• 30-year: 4.661% (-3.1 bps)

Commodities and crypto:

• Crude oil: $60.86, down $1.19 (-1.92%)

• Gold: $3,307, down $36.70 (-1.10%)

• Bitcoin: $94,937, down $100

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.