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Trump is busy on Truth Social today:

Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this
violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK.
Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to
comply with our Treaty over the past five years. The U.S needs Mexico
to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest
must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is
very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That
is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico
if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY. The longer Mexico takes to
release the water, the more our Farmers are hurt. Mexico has an
obligation to FIX THIS NOW. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

I’m sure there is more than one side to this story but it’s one that nags at one of the classic geopolitical angsts — water.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Same approach will apply to AMD, Intel and others

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Trump: Will end up putting severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if they have to
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent We are still working on a trade deal with India:
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.88
• Trump news: WIll provide 12 billion in aid to farmers
• AUDUSD Technicals: The AUDUSD is correcting lower ahead of the RBA rate decision
• U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.614%
• US to allow Nvidia H200 chip exports to China
• Ukraine Zelenskyy: Talks in London were productive
• Japan government downgrades tsunami warning to tsunami advisory after earthquake
• Major European indices close mixed to start the new trading week
• BLS will not publish October PPI report. November to be published on January 14
• New York Fed November survey says one year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.2%
• More on Paramount Skydance bid for Paramount. Jared Kushner involved in helping finance
• 7.2 magnitude earthquake hit off northern Japan
• Paramount Sky Dance launches all cash tender to acquire Warner Bros. for $30/share
• WH Econ Advisor Hassett: We should continue to get the rate down some
• The USD is little changed to kickstart the new trading day.What are the technicals saying?
• investingLive European FX news wrap: ECB’s Schnabel is fine with rate hike bets

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher across the curve during the US session, reinforcing demand for the dollar and helping to lift the USD broadly against its major counterparts.

Although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates, market sentiment has shifted toward the idea of a hawkish cut — one in which policymakers lower rates but pair the move with firmer guidance on inflation risks and a cautious path for future easing.The rise in yields, combined with the hawkish-leaning policy outlook, boosted the greenback.

Below is a snapshot look of the change of the USD vs the major currencies today:

• EUR, +0.03%
• JPY +0.37%
• GBP +0.05%
• CHF, +0.30%
• CAD, +0.30%
• AUD, +0.23%
• NZD unchanged.

Looking at the US yield curve today, despite a successful 3 year note auction, the yields did move higher across the curve but they are near the middle of the low and high trading range for the day.

• 2-year: 3.58% (+1.7 bps)

• 5-year: 3.75% (+3.5 bps)

• 10-year: 4.17% (+2.9 bps)

• 30-year: 4.81% (+1.8 bps)

Kevin Hassett — the current White House economic adviser and frontrunner to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve — told CNBC that the Fed should continue to “get the rate down some,” stressing the need to watch incoming data carefully because many pieces are still missing. investingLive He praised the current chair for “herding the cats,” but argued real-wage growth and positive supply shocks are the way to restore living standards and anchor long-term growth. Against that backdrop, he suggested there is plenty of room for the 10-year Treasury yield to drop, hinting at possible market support if rates are cut.

In other economic news out of the NY Fed, the New York Fed’s November consumer survey showed that inflation expectations remained stable across all horizons, with the one-year outlook holding at 3.2% and both the three- and five-year measures steady at 3%. Home-price expectations were also unchanged at 3%. Despite that stability, households grew more pessimistic about their current and future financial situations, and expectations for medical-cost inflation surged to the highest level since January 2014. At the same time, labor-market sentiment improved modestly, suggesting consumers see job conditions as a relative bright spot even as broader financial concerns persist.

In other news, a powerful magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck off northern Japan, triggering tsunami warnings and raising concerns about potential infrastructure damage and economic disruption. The shock created a bout of risk aversion in financial markets, which led to selling pressure on the Japanese yen as investors reassessed exposure to Japan and moved capital into safer or higher-yielding assets. That yen weakness helped push USD/JPY higher, and the pair broke above the 200-hour moving average at 155.628, a key technical level that shifts short-term momentum firmly in favor of the dollar. Holding above this moving average keeps the bullish bias intact, with the quake-related uncertainty reinforcing the market’s willingness to sell JPY until conditions stabilize.

U.S. equities finished the session mostly under pressure as defensive positioning, higher Treasury yields, and scattered sector rotation weighed on sentiment:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,739.32 (-215.67, -0.45%)

• S&P 500: 6,846.51 (-23.89, -0.35%)

• Nasdaq Composite: 23,545.90 (-32.22, -0.14%)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It’s decision day for the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Unfortunately for us, the decision itself will be drama free with no change in the 3.60% case target expected whatsoever. What’s starting to get interesting is 2026 as the market is now fully priced for at least one rate hike. At the March meeting, there is a 33% chance of a hike priced in and that could swing today based on Governor Michelle Bullock, who has noted inflationary pressures recently.

The decision is at 2:30 pm Sydney time or 0330 GMT or 10:30 pm in New York. There is a news conference an hour later.

Three hours before the RBA decision, we get the November Australian NAB business confidence survey.

That just about wraps up what we’re expecting for the session. Eamonn is out this week and I’m covering for him.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump on Canada says:

• Will end up putting severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if they have to

On related trade news, the US ambassador to Canada says:

• Trump does not want to terminate the USMCA trade deal

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

When asked about a trade deal with India, US Treasury Secretary Bessent says:

• We are still working on a India trade

Companies like Nike export from India. Their stuff today is down sharply but -3.89% at $63.30. In the tumble, the price has moved back below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $64.06 and $63.86 respectively. That shifts the bias back in favor of the sellers.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump News:

• Taking action to protect farmers
• US will take small portion of tariff revenues to give it to farmers
• We will provide $12 billion in aid to farmers
• He spoke with Xi and he thinks China will buy even more soybeans than promised.

He added:

• We willl take off a lot of environment rules that affect tractor companies.
• We will take those rules off and want reduction in prices on farming equipment.
• Farming equipment has gotten too expensive

For Fiscal Year 2025 (Ended Sept 30, 2025):

• The US collected approximately $195 billion to $215 billion in customs duties. This represents a massive increase—roughly 150% to 250% higher than the previous year.

• Fiscal Year 2024: For comparison, the US collected roughly $77 billion in customs duties.

Since the start of the fiscal 2026 year, (Started Oct 1, 2025):

• Collections remain at record highs. In October 2025 alone, the Treasury reported collecting roughly $34 billion, putting the US on pace for another record-breaking year if current policies remain in place.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US is to allow Nvidia H200 chip exports to China.

• Some analysts view such a move as a “strategic win-win,” arguing that allowing H200 shipments would sustain China’s reliance on U.S. AI infrastructure — and potentially slow down the adoption of domestic alternatives
• The H200 is more capable than the chip China is currently allowed to buy (the H20), which gives it technical appeal for high-demand applications (large-model training, inference, data-center use cases)

Although good news, Jensen Huang, recently said he is not sure China would accept H200 even if restrictions are eased — Beijing may prefer home-grown chips or chips already certified under export rules. Chinese firms and regulators appear increasingly focused on domestic AI-chip makers (like Cambricon Technologies) and building self-sufficiency. There’s growing pressure—both economic and political—on companies not to rely solely on foreign hardware.

Nvidia shares have moved higher and are up $3.90 or 2.15% at $186.46.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.614%.

• WI level at the time of the auction was 3.622%
• Tail -0.8 basis points versus -0.2 basis points 6 month average
• bid to cover 2.64X vs 6 month average of 2.63X
• Directs 19.0% versus 6 month average of 24.5%.
• Indirects 71.97% versus 6 month average of 62.5%
• Dealers 9.03% vs 6 month average of 13.1%

Auction Grade B+

The 3 year note auction was met with strong demand from international buyers. The domestic buyers were less than average in the bid to cover was near the average. More good news was that the tail was -0.8 basis points which was much less than the -0.2 basis point average over the last 6 months.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Ukraine Zelenskyy is speaking and says:

• Talks in London were productive.
• There is a small progress toward peace.
• Ukraine – Europe plan proposals should be ready by tomorrow to share with the US
• Ukraine cannot give up land
• The US is trying to find a compromise on this issue

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $50 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction is the 1st of 3 coupon auctions this week with the treasury also auctioning $39 billion of 9 year 11 month bonds tomorrow at 1 PM. On Thursday they will complete the auctions with the sale of $22 billion of 29 year and 11 month bonds.

The 6 month averages of the major components for the 3 year note auction will be compared to the actual results. Below are the averages for those components:

• Tail: -0.2 basis points.
• Bid to cover 2.63X
• Directs (domestic buyers) 24.5%
• Indirects (international buyers 62.5%)
• Dealers 13.1%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDINR corrected lower last week, breaking below its 100-hour moving average. However, sellers were unable to extend the decline toward the next key target—the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the mid-November low. That failure allowed buyers to regroup and push the pair higher, lifting it back above the 100-hour MA, where dips over the past day or two have consistently found support.

As long as the price holds above the 100-hour MA, currently near 89.99, the short-term bias remains tilted in favor of the bulls. For sellers to gain any traction, they must push the price back below that level. A break lower would open the door toward 89.79, followed by the rising 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement near 89.656—levels that would need to be broken to shift control back to the downside.

Until that happens, buyers remain firmly in control. On the topside, the high from last week at 90.4370 is the next major target. Above that, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 90.5700 stands as a key objective for bullish continuation.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.