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The World Cup is in the USA, Canada and Mexico this year. The World Cup draw is underway now and the first three matchups drawn are:

1. Mexico-Korea
2. Canada-Switzerland
3. USA-Australia

Those are fairly good draws for the hosts in what’s sure to be a fun summer. But while countries compete on the football pitch, they also compete in the world economy. The best way to measure that is often in the foreign exchange market.

So with that, here are the competing currencies.

We all know Canada will win the real World Cup trophy, but which is going to be the best-performing currency between now and the July 19, 2026 World Cup final?

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Recall last week, Baker Hughes oil rig count fell -12. Today they rose by half of that with a gain of 6 to 413. The natural gas rates fell -1 to 129. The total rigs for the week rose 5 to 549.

Crude oil is trading near highs for the day up $0.60 41% at $60.28. The low price reached $59.42. The high prices and $60.50. For the week, the price is up 3.11%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Treasury Secretary Bessent is out with a good review of the China trade detente. He said the had a constructive call with He Lifeng today about the implementation of the agreement between Xi and Trump. He said it is “going well”.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Earlier reports said Trump wouldn’t be talking trade with his North American counterparts but now that doesn’t seem to be the case:

• Have meetings set up after FIFA event, will discuss trade
• Will meet with Canada and Mexico
• Getting along very well

That’s more good news or CAD but Trump is so vague and temperamental, he could blow up the USMCA an hour from now.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold is one of several assets that have seen heavy selling in the past half-hour. Gold has quickly turned a $50 gain into a small loss in a near-vertical drop.

Elsewhere, strong gains in US equities have faded as well with a 0.5% rally in the S&P 500 fading to 2%.

Bitcoin is also being hit with selling as it falls 3.3% on the day and cracks $90K to the downside.

This looks like a headline driven move but the only headlines are the ones about Russia and I don’t see that as a reason for these moves.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices will like this:

• The EU and G7 in talks on imposing a full ban on accessing maritime services by Russia to disrupt oil exports
• Would scrap oil price cap system

The oil price cap system has been a failure and this would probably be a failure too but there’s a chance it could actually cut off some Russian exports.

Oil was already up 68-cents to $60.37 ahead of this but has faded from earlier gains. There are also high-level US-Russia talks ongoing that could end the war so this sounds like a carrot-and-stick approach.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There are two things that the market considers with economic data:

1. What the Fed will do
2. What the Fed should do

Now those two things are usually aligned but not always. The heavy politicization of the Fed has the market worried about unwise rate cuts now and into next year.

Today’s UMich consumer sentiment and PCE data shows the Fed might have more latitude than believed. Consumer sentiment is poor but the 1-year inflation expectations survey in the report fell to 4.1% from 4.7% while the five-year fell to 3.2% from 3.6%. That’s a big shift and it’s probably related to gasoline prices but it’s still a sign that consumers aren’t spending like the prices will jump again next year.

As for actual inflation, we’re still digging out from the US government shutdown so the PCE report today was from September but it showed core inflation at 2.8% compared to 2.9% previously (and 2.9% expected). That’s still not on target but it’s a step in the right direction.

A rate cut next week is still only 85% priced in (it should be 100%) but the market should feel more comfortable about 2-3 more cuts in 2026 as the right thing to do even if a Trump lackey is named Fed chair. Now if we get 4-5 cuts that would be a different story but we will cross that bridge when we get to it.

For now we’re getting some nice gains in stocks as we’re not getting indications of a policy error. The S&P 500 is up 0.5%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 50.3
• Current conditions vs 51.3 expected (52.3 prior)
• Expectations vs 51.2 expected (49.0 prior)
• One-year inflation vs 4.7% prior
• Five-year inflation vs 3.6% prior

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Personal income 0.4% versus 0.3%
• personal consumption 0.3% versus 0.3% as expected
• PCE for September 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. YoY 2.8% versus 2.8% expected
• Core PCE for September 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. YoY 2.8% versus 2.9% expected
• PCE Ex food energy, and housing 0.2% MoM versus 0.2% last month
• PCE Ex energy and housing 0.2% versus 0.3% last month

For the month there was $65.1 billion increase in current dollar PCE reflecting an increase of $63.0 billion on services and $2.1 billion on goods.

Looking at the PCE, the core PCE is at the same level that it was a year ago at 2.8%. The high of the core reached 3.0%. The headline moved up from 2.3% to the current 2.8%. The 2.8% is the highest going back a year.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +66.6K
• Unemployment rate 6.5% vs 7.0% expected
• Participation rate 65.1% vs 65.3% prior
• Full time -9.4% vs -18.5K prior
• Part time +63.0K vs 85.1K prior
• Average hourly wages for permanent employees 4.00% vs 4.00% prior

There were a pair of weak reports in July/August followed by a pair of strong ones in Sept/Oct, leaving everyone guessing what the real trajectory of hiring in Canada is. This report provides an emphatic answer. It’s another big jobs gain and a tumble in the unemployment rate. The fall in joblessness is flattered by declining participation but it still runs in the opposite direction of what markets were expecting.

The Bank of Canada had already indicated a shift to the sidelines but now it might be time to start talking about when it’s time to hike rates.

This also might be a gamechanger for the Canadian dollar, which is at a one-month low now and threatening the October low.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prepared to consider further tariff concessions on products originating in the US
• That only provided that the US is also willing to grant more concessions
• Committed to further improve access to the US market

It’s not the first time that they adopted a draft mandate in dealing with US tariffs in this whole saga. As a reminder, the Swiss government also did the same already in May but back then the tariffs imposed were much higher. They have since been reduced to 15% on 14 November last month. So, the negotiating mandate here is to account for the change. The full press release on what concessions were made by the two sides can be found here.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• The risk mood keeps steadier and more boxed in going into the final stretch of the week
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
• The Indian Rupee falls again following the RBI’s rate cut: the trend remains negative
• Japan economy minister says specific monetary policy is up to the BOJ to decide
• Japan chief Cabinet secretary says taking appropriate steps on disorderly FX moves
• RBI Governor Malhotra on the rupee: Will allow markets to determine levels on currency
• Eurozone Q3 final GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% q/q prelim
• Germany October industrial orders +1.5% vs +0.4% m/m expected
• France October trade balance -€3.92 billion vs -€6.58 billion prior
• UK November Halifax house prices 0.0% vs +0.6% m/m prior
• Swiss government adopts draft negotiating mandate for trade agreement with the US
• Italy’s stats office trims 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%
• China commerce ministry rebuffs that it will ramp up efforts to bolster consumption

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.115%
• Gold up 0.5% to $4,227.18
• WTI crude oil down 0.2% to $59.54
• Bitcoin down 1.0% to $91,205

It was a relatively slow session with not too much action as markets seem content to avoid any drama before the weekend comes along. The risk mood remains rather tentative, with equities keeping steadier in general. So, that’s keeping things in check as we look to wrap up the week before the focus next week turns towards the FOMC meeting.

In FX, there wasn’t too much happening with most major currencies keeping little changed across the board. The aussie and kiwi are a little higher, with AUD/USD continuing to push gains in a break to its highest since the middle of September. The pair is up 0.4% to 0.6635 with little standing in the way of a potential run towards testing the 0.6700 mark again.

Besides that, the dollar is looking to close out the week in steadier fashion after a more sluggish week in general. EUR/USD is flattish around 1.1648 with USD/JPY also just marginally higher by 0.1% to 155.18 currently. The latter did see a solid bounce back from a low of 154.34 earlier in the session, as buyers continue to hold the line in preventing a firm break/daily close below the 155.00 mark.

In the equities space, the mood music remains calm and steady. European indices are posting modest gains in trying to end the week on a more positive note, following the brief setback suffered on Monday. US futures are also a little higher with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% currently, with Wall Street slowly taking aim at fresh record highs again.

In other markets, bonds are little changed amid a lack of appetite. Meanwhile, gold is trading back up above $4,200 as buyers continue to try and go in search of the next leg higher. However, they are lacking a bit of oomph in securing that breakout despite managing a break from the flag/wedge at the end of last week.

With there being no US non-farm payrolls release this Friday, market players won’t have all too much to work with in wrapping up the week. As such, the focus and attention will shift towards the FOMC meeting next week. It’s going to be yet another central bank bonanza next week, so make sure to get a good rest over the weekend to gear up for that.

I’ll be back again in just a little over a week. So, catch you guys then. Have a great weekend, everyone!

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.