Articles

Japan tariff negotiator Akazawa intends to visit the US around May 30 for fourth round of talks

Reuters with the info citing unnamed sources

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A research note from Citi, via a CNBC report, paints a bleak picture for the economy in the months ahead:

• economy to worsen in H2 2025
• “As the full effects of the tariffs come online — likely over the next few months — demand could face a double blow. The tariffs could reduce real purchasing power, and in addition, frontloaded purchases will be ‘paid back‘”
• “As such, we view the current period as still the ‘calm before the storm,’ and we expect growth in the second half of the year to weaken.”

September Federal Reserve rate cut?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

GfK’s consumer confidence for May 2025 is -20

• expected -22, and -23 in April
• survey long-run average is -11

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Deputy Secretary of State spoke with Chinese counterpart on Thursday

• Acknowledged the importance of the bilateral relationship to the people of both countries
• Discussed a wide range of issues of mutual interest, and agreed on the importance of keeping open lines of communication

Bland sort of readout.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Retail Sales Q1 2025

Retail Sales +0.8% q.q

• expected +0.1%, prior +0.9%

+0.7% y/y

• expected +0.1%, prior +0.2%

Core Retail Sales +0.4% q/q

• expected +0.7%, prior +1.4%

NZD unmoved:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JPMorgan is noting a broad-based recovery in China, with encouraging signs of renewed momentum in markets and rising foreign investor interest in diversification, according to Rita Chan, the bank’s co-senior country officer for China.

Speaking at the Global China Summit in Shanghai, Chan pointed to a pickup in foreign direct investment and a rebound in market liquidity and trading volume over the past 12 months.

• now signs of business picking up, seeing increased share sales in both Hong Kong and mainland China
• “broad-based recovery in liquidity and volume” in China.
• “The development in the last 12 months have definitely been encouraging,”

She added that Beijing’s recent stimulus efforts and reiterated commitment to financial market liberalisation have helped restore confidence, supporting a more optimistic outlook among global investors looking to re-engage with Chinese assets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had some mixed data from Japan yesterday. From back in March, a nice positive surprise:

• Japan machinery orders surge, +13% m/m (expected -1.6%)

And as an early sign for May, not so good, it’ll be the 11th consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing PMI if the final reading confirms:

• Japan flash May manufacturing PMI 49.0 (prior 48.7)

Today we get CPI data

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato with the remarks.

Yesterday the reasonably unremarkable news that Kato had met with Bessent kicked the legs out from under the yen for an hour or so, As I said in the wrap:

• But, that’s all it took for USD/JPY to race from around 143.60 to highs above 144.30 in just a few minutes. Admittedly, it was at a low-liquidity part of the 24 hours FX cycle (just prior to 8am Sydney time (10am New Zealand, 7 am Tokyo, 6am Singapore and Hong Kong, 6pm US Eastern time, 12am/11 pm Frankfurt/London).

It all soon retraced to lows around 142.80 or so heading into Europe time … but JPY has weakened again overnight:

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Yields reverse lower, bitcoin hits record near $112K

Eyes on CPI data from Japan due today for the next (known!) catalyst:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing the day mixed with the Dow and S&P little changed (down marginally) and the Nasdaq index higher.

A snapshoe of the closing levels shows:

• Dow Industiral Average fell -1.35 points or 0.0% at 41859.09
• S&P -2.6 points or -0.04% at 5842.01
• Nasdaq index rose 53.09 points or 0.28% at 18925.73

Some winners in the Nasdaq index today included:

• PDD (Pinduoduo): +3.10%

• TSLA (Tesla): +1.89%

• PLTR (Palantir): +1.42%

• GOOGL (Alphabet): +1.37%

• ARM (Arm Holdings): +1.30%

• BKNG (Booking Holdings): +0.92%

• INTU (Intuit): +0.92%

• NVDA (NVIDIA): +0.78%

• HON (Honeywell): +0.79%

• AMZN (Amazon): +0.96%

The top 10 losers in the Nasdaq

• ASML: –4.05%

• CRWD (CrowdStrike): –2.15%

• TXN (Texas Instruments): –2.85%

• ADI (Analog Devices): –2.03%

• QCOM (Qualcomm): –2.60%

• KLAC (KLA Corp.): –1.47%

• INTC (Intel): –1.05%

• MU (Micron): –1.05%

• APP (AppLovin): –1.92%

• FTNT (Fortinet): –1.70%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• US May S&P Global flash services PMI 52.3 vs 50.8 expected
• US initial jobless claims 227K vs 230k estimate
• US April existing home sales 4.00m vs 4.10m expected
• Canada April producer price index -0.8% m/m vs -0.5% expected
• Fed’s Waller: If tariffs are closer to 10%, then economy is good shape for 2H
• BOC’s Macklem: G7 discussions focused on improving dialogue on tariffs
• White House: Trump believes things moving in the right direction with Iran
• US treasury auctions $18B of 10 year TIPS at high yield of 2.22%
• Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate for the current week highest since February
• EU’s Dombrovskis: Ministers put forth proposals on further Russian sanctions
• Fed’s Williams doesn’t comment on monetary policy or the outlook
• KC Fed manufacturing index -10 vs -5 prior
• May Belgium business confidence -13.5 vs -14.0 expected
• ECB Accounts: Increased confidence inflation would return to target over the medium term.

Markets:

• Gold down $21 to $3292
• US 10-year yields down 6 bps to 4.53%
• S&P 500 flat
• WTI crude oil down 47-cents to $61.09
• GBP leads, NZD lags

The US dollar generally strengthened in North American trade but the overall moves were modest. The bigger action was elsewhere, particularly in the bond market. US 30-year yields hit 5.16%, which is just below the 2023 high and the highest levels since 2007. However that cap held and some buyers started to weigh in from there and yields slowly fell to 5.05%.

That came in the aftermath of the US House passing a deficit-ballooning bill in Congress and sending it to the Senate. With yields declining, USD/JPY rose which is a change from the correlation for many years but underscores the change in that relationship this year. That pair ticked up to 144.31 from as 143.40 early in US trade.

US economic data argued for a solid economy as initial jobless claims were steady and the S&P Global PMIs improved, including on the pricing metrics.

Outside of FX, bitcoin and crypto were the stars of the show as BTC almost touched $112K but made a fresh record high in the fifth day of gains.

Over at the G7, there were some headlines but in general there were no signs of tension and the indication was more of a united front against China than a brewing fight with the USA.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US VP JD Vance will be speaking at the piquant 2025 convention in Las Vegas on May 28.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.