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Today the Fed is expected to finally restart its journey towards the neutral rate after the last cut in December 2024. Let’s see what’s priced in by the market and what kind of surprises could trigger a repricing in expectations.

Statement

The Fed should acknowledge the weakening in the labour market while maintaining the lines about elevated inflation and uncertainty. No change to QT. In terms of votes, we should see a majority of participants voting for a 25 bps cut with two or three participants voting for a 50 bps reduction (Miran, Waller and Bowman). There might also be one participant voting to hold the rate steady (Schmid).

Potential surprises:

• 50 bps cut (very dovish)
• More than three members voting for 50 bps cut (dovish)
• No cut (very hawkish)
• No dissents for 25 bps cut (slightly hawkish)
• Only Miran voting for 50 bps (slightly hawkish)

*Note that whatever Miran does or says from now on, will likely be ignored by the market because of his political appointment.

Dot Plot

At this meeting we also get the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The focus will be on the dot plot and it will be compared to the current market pricing since this is what’s priced in. The market is pricing a total of 148 bps of easing by the end of 2026, with 68 bps in 2025. Therefore, the market is expecting 3 cuts in 2025 and 3 cuts in 2026. In June, the Fed projected 2 cuts in 2025 and 1 cut in 2026. The Fed is expected to match the market pricing for 2025 but could be more hawkish for 2026 by projecting just one or two cuts.

Potential surprises:

• Just one more cut in 2025 and anything lower than three cuts in 2026 (hawkish)
• Two more cuts in 2025 and four cuts in 2026 (dovish)
• Three more cuts in 2025 and three cuts in 2026 (very dovish)

Press Conference

This is where things will get interesting and where it’s harder to really get a consensus, but most agree that Powell will put more focus on the labour market given the recent weakness. Nonetheless, we have Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech as the baseline.

In fact, in August Powell already pivoted towards the employment side of the mandate, downplaying the risk of lasting inflation dynamic and higher wage growth setting by stating that “given that the labor market is not particularly tight and faces increasing downside risks, that outcome does not seem likely”.

Potential surprises:

• Powell makes a strong pledge to support the labour market in case it weakens further (dovish)
• Powell downplays the labour market weakness and puts more emphasis on inflation (hawkish)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Market index 386.1 vs 297.7 prior
• Purchase index 174.0 vs 169.1 prior
• Refinance index 1596.7 vs 1012.4 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.39% vs 6.49% prior

This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates.

Having said that, this should be a little bit concerning for the Fed given that a slight fall in mortgage rates is leading to such a strong surge in demand.

After years of elevated mortgage rates and low demand for mortgages, there could be some type of FOMO for lower rates.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Latest ECB decision driven by prudent, wait and see approach in a fluid and uncertain environment.
• Financing conditions had become easier in orderly fashion thanks to ECB policy.
• This should support a gradual economic recovery over the medium term.
• By keeping inflation expectations firmly anchored to our medium term target, monetary policy acts as a stabilising force.
• Looking ahead, favourable financing conditions are expected to support growth even though risks due to trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are tilted to the downside.

Again, nothing new here from Stournaras as he reaffirms policy flexibility like other officials. He’s sounding optimistic on future growth due to the soft landing and easier financial conditions.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Governors (permanent voters)

• Powell (neutral)
• Barr (neutral)
• Jefferson (neutral)
• Cook (dovish)
• Waller (dove)
• Bowman (dove)
• Miran (dove)

Fed Presidents

• Williams (neutral) – voter
• Goolsbee (neutral) – voter
• Collins (dovish) – voter
• Musalem (hawkish) – voter
• Schmid (hawkish) – voter
• Kashkari (neutral)
• Daly (dovish)
• Bostic (hawkish)
• Paulson (no public comments)
• Logan (neutral)
• Barkin (neutral)
• Hammack (hawkish)

Voters

• Neutral: 5
• Dovish: 5
• Hawkish: 2

Neutral voters are those that were leaning towards two cuts for 2025. Dovish are those who are likely to favour three or more. Hawkish are those looking for less than two cuts in 2025.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior +2.0%
• Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.4%

The headline estimate is revised lower but there’s no change to the core reading. So, carry on as you will.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Even with the drop so far today, gold is up roughly 0.6% on the week and is keeping over 6% gains this month. Not bad for what is supposed to be a soft seasonal month for the precious metal, eh?

For today though, gold is back down to $3,665 currently after briefly clipping the $3,700 mark in overnight trading. This is mostly profit-taking as traders are gearing up towards the Fed decision later in the day.

The chart still points to gold keeping a more bullish momentum in the bigger picture. That especially after the break of $3,500 earlier this month.

As we look to the Fed later, there is scope for a modest pullback and shift in near-term momentum if the dollar manages to bounce back. The 100 and 200-hour moving averages for gold are at $3,658 and $3,636 respectively. So, a break below those levels will see sellers gather back some near-term momentum at least.

However, all of that is still likely to be temporary and short-lived. So long as US data continues to soften and the Fed stays on track to cut rates further, gold will continue to build on that tailwind alongside the many other factors driving the bullish momentum.

I’d be remiss not to point out that there is scope for a sharp and violent pullback in gold prices amid the incessant rally all through this year. But in the bigger picture, I will continue to advocate for dip buying in gold on any major pullbacks/corrections.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 4.6% in 2024, and 3.2% in 2025.
• For the first half of 2026, the headline ECB wage tracker stands at 1.7%
  (down from 2.1% in the second half of 2025 and 4.3% in the first half
  of 2025).

Stable wage growth is a good thing for the ECB as it helps with keeping inflation stable around their target in absence of shocks.

Full report here

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Even if out central scenario is materialising, that doesn’t mean the uncertainty elements have been erased.
• Disinflation has been a success.
• The situation was complex two or three years ago.
• The current interest rate at 2% seem reasonable to us.
• Risks to inflation are balanced and slightly negative for growth.

Escriva spoke yesterday at an event and the video got released later. He’s not saying anything new here and just reaffirming the central bank’s neutral stance. The readiness to move in either direction (cuts or hikes) is becoming the consensus among ECB’s officials, but in absence of shocks, they won’t react to slight deviation in their 2% target.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

– Club joins forces with global cryptocurrency exchange –

– Collaboration will accelerate international growth and deliver new digital opportunities for fans –

Newcastle United has signed a multi-year partnership with global cryptocurrency exchange BYDFi, marking an important step in the club’s continued international expansion.

As the club’s Official Cryptocurrency Exchange Partner, BYDFi will work closely with Newcastle United to connect with the Magpies’ rapidly growing global fanbase, while showcasing its innovative financial solutions to new audiences worldwide.

The partnership will strengthen the club’s presence in key international markets, while giving supporters access to digital finance tools, expertise, and new experiences through BYDFi’s cutting-edge platform.

Commenting on the new partnership, Newcastle United’s Chief Commercial Officer, Peter Silverstone, said: “We’re excited to welcome BYDFi to the Newcastle United family. They’re an ambitious, forward-thinking brand whose mission to help people build their financial futures really resonates with us.

“Our club has seen incredible growth in recent years – since the 21/22 season our broadcast audience has ranked second among Europe’s top clubs, and in the Asia-Pacific region we now attract the fifth-highest Premier League TV audience. Add to that being the fastest-growing club on Premier League social media last season, and it’s clear our fanbase is expanding at a remarkable pace.

“This partnership gives BYDFi a fantastic platform to connect with our supporters around the world, and together we’ll be creating new digital experiences to bring fans even closer to the club.”

Michael Hung, Co-founder and CEO of BYDFi, added: “Lasting success, on the pitch or in finance, comes from doing the right things, repeatedly, over time. We’re honoured to partner with Newcastle United and to support a mindset where belief meets steady practice. That’s what ‘BUIDL Your Dream Finance’ means to us; BUIDL is our term for taking actions which turn ideas into reality.

“Partnering with one of Europe’s biggest clubs shows our ambition to continue our growth and reach new audiences. We are delighted to be working with Newcastle United and to reach their growing global fanbase.”

BYDFi, founded in 2020, now serves over 1,000,000 users across 190+ countries and regions. It offers a suite of crypto trading services for both beginners and seasoned investors, with a strong emphasis on compliance, education, and community-building. For more information, please visit www.bydfi.com

This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Leading multi-asset broker XM is giving traders more control and confidence by unifying all its products and introducing new powerful tools in one seamless trading experience.

“We wanted to introduce a new trading experience that makes a difference for our traders,” said Pavlos Evangelidis, Chief Product Officer. “We carefully crafted every part of their journey with an intuitive design and advanced technology to give them the best chance to achieve their trading goals.”

Traders can expect intuitive navigation, a direct-to-trade interface, faster access to everything XM offers, and the same experience across both web and app. The multi-regulated broker aims to give traders everything they need to make precise trading decisions and seize more opportunities.

At the centre of this experience are the highly sophisticated TradingView charts, now integrated into XM traders’ accounts. Both beginner and experienced traders can take advantage of the simplified and advanced versions, using a variety of tools including smart drawing features and technical indicators.

“The new interface is designed to allow traders to stay informed, analyse, plan, and act fast when opportunity strikes,” said George Michail, Senior Product Manager. “Beyond trading, our users can now fund and withdraw, chat with support, view live education, and access everything we offer in one place.”

This launch also marks the release of the highly anticipated XM AI – an AI-powered assistant designed to instantly answer any questions about trading. Aptly positioned next to the chart, it ensures uninterrupted decision-making and execution.

Additional updates include a notification centre with personalised alerts, customisable watchlists, and the new Explore page, offering real-time market updates throughout the day.

Earlier this year, the award-winning broker celebrated 15 years of success, promising major upgrades and releases. Following two hugely successful promotions that gave traders unprecedented opportunities, this latest release further strengthens the suite of advantages available with XM.

Traders around the world can enjoy this new experience on the web and across all devices by simply opening an account with XM.

#EveryOpportunityToSucceed

About XM

XM is a globally trusted broker with over 15 years of success and more than 15 million clients worldwide. Fully regulated and licensed, XM offers a full suite of products and trading instruments including forex, commodities, indices, stocks, Copy Trading, and Competitions. Traders can rely on award-winning services, support, and traders’ education.

Disclaimer: Promotions and bonuses are not available for accounts registered under our EU or UAE-based entity. Specific regions may be excluded. The XM Group operates globally under various entities, so products, services, and features listed here vary between XM entities. For further information, please visit the XM website.

Risk Warning: XM’s services involve significant risks and may result in the loss of your invested capital. T&Cs apply.

This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

• The current interest rate is appropriate based on inflation developments, our projections and the transmission of monetary policy.
• We are living in a very complex and uncertain world with numerous risks.
• Despite rising real incomes, consumption remains subdued. Maybe because households fear higher taxes in the future.
• Markets are not always wrong, but they are not always right either.
• Thursday decision was unanimous.
• We all agree we must keep all options open.
• If the situation changes, we will adjust out stance accordingly.
• An independent central bank is the best protection against high inflation.
• Inflation expectations only stay low if investors and consumers trust the central bank to keep prices stable.
• It’s particularly critical if monetary policy is constrained by fiscal policy – what we can fiscal dominance.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior +3.8%
• Core CPI +3.6% vs +3.6% y/y expected
• Prior +3.8%

The main component leading to the drop in core annual inflation was prices for airfares. That was seen up 2.1% between July and August this year, but was up 22.2% between the same months in 2024. This is largely due to the timing in which the index was captured, with the holiday season falling earlier this year in July. That resulted in a relatively high July index.

Besides that, services inflation also eased slightly from 5.0% to 4.7% in August so that’s another contributing factor. But the headline reading remains high as goods inflation rose marginally from 2.7% to 2.8% in August.

All in all, there isn’t any major changes that should change the BOE outlook for now. Core prices remain elevated with services inflation still sticky, even if it is gradually moderating for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.