Articles

USTR:

• The office of USTR announced suspension of action in Section 301 investigation of China’s targeting of maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for dominance
• Action will be suspended for one year, and as of 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on November 10, 2025

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan PM Takaichi:

• Not ruling out sales tax cut as option in future, but immediate priority is to compile package of steps to cushion blow from rising cost of living
• Changing sales tax rate would take time, so decision on whether to do so would need to take into account wage, inflation levels at the time

Japan’s government will need all the revenue it can get to fund the stimulus the new PM is planning.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs has raised its growth outlook for China, citing resilient exports, easing U.S.–China trade tensions, and renewed policy momentum from Beijing’s latest five-year plan.

Hui Shan, Goldman’s chief China economist, said the bank now expects China’s real GDP to rise 4.8% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027

• up from earlier forecasts of 4.3% and 4.0%

marking the firm’s largest upgrade since 2019.

The revision follows the late-October meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, which de-escalated trade tensions and led to tariff reductions. Shan said the meeting signalled that China now wields meaningful leverage in trade talks, particularly through control of rare-earth exports, and that the U.S. may find it harder to impose further tariffs.

Goldman also cited the outcomes of China’s recent Fourth Plenum and its 15th Five-Year Plan, which emphasise technology self-reliance and industrial competitiveness. Policymakers aim to double down on high-tech manufacturing and innovation as drivers of growth, replacing reliance on property and infrastructure. While the strategy may boost exports and corporate profits quickly, Shan warned it may take longer to lift household consumption.

The bank sees the combination of stronger exports, technological upgrading, and easing geopolitical pressure as key to sustaining momentum. Goldman also noted that the rise of artificial intelligence could lift China’s long-term growth potential by as much as 8% over the next decade, helping offset demographic and structural headwinds.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are at least 8 votes from Senate Democratic caucus in favor of a negotiated deal to end shutdown

Reuters citing unnamed source. This is enough to end the shut down.

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The Senate is in recess until 8pm US Eastern time. It looks like there are now plenty enough votes to reopen the government. The bill will have to go to the House of course, and there is plenty of noise being made about how it’ll face opposition there. I suspect it’ll gt passed, there seems to be enough pressure on now.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan PM Takaichi:

• Won’t ditch govt primary balance target for fiscal 2025, but will examine new govt fiscal target for future that looks at fiscal state in scope of several years

Earlier:

• Japan’s Takaichi abandons annual budget target, takes softer fiscal consolidation stance

Despite what we hear from the pollies in Japan on a day to day basis this new government is proposing a lot of stimulus for the Japanese economy. Keep that in mind.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

British employers expect to raise pay by around 3% over the next year, but growing use of artificial intelligence could reduce headcount, according to a new survey that also highlighted weaker hiring intentions and concern over government tax policy.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said overall recruitment plans are among the weakest since the pandemic, with hiring especially soft in the public sector.

• One in six firms expects AI adoption to shrink their workforce over the coming year, with a quarter of those anticipating job cuts of more than 10%.
• Clerical, junior managerial, and administrative roles are seen as most at risk.

CIPD senior economist James Cockett warned that the government’s recent rise in employers’ social security contributions has already cooled hiring, and urged Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to avoid further tax measures that could worsen the slowdown. He called for more investment in workforce skills to help employees adapt to AI-driven change.

The survey, conducted between September 19 and October 14, showed median expected pay rises holding at 3% for a sixth straight quarter.

• By contrast, a Bank of England survey found firms predicting 3.7% wage growth in the three months to October, while official data due Tuesday are expected to show annual regular pay rising 4.6% in the latest quarter.

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The CIPD’s survey adds to signs of cooling labour demand as firms balance steady wage growth with rising automation. Slower hiring could reinforce the Bank of England’s case for easing rates, though persistent pay pressures may complicate its December decision.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. government shutdown appeared close to ending after a group of centrist Senate Democrats agreed to support a stopgap deal to reopen key agencies and provide temporary funding.

• Under the proposal, federal employees would receive back pay and states would resume delayed federal transfers.
• The measure would fund certain departments through January 30, while others would receive full-year appropriations.

However, the bill faces a tough path in the House. Democratic leaders have spoken out against the compromise, arguing it concedes too much to Republicans. At the same time, conservative GOP lawmakers are pushing for a broader package that would fund the entire government through September 30, setting up another potential standoff.

The agreement marks the most serious bipartisan effort yet to end the protracted shutdown, though the political divisions underscore the difficulty of reaching a lasting budget deal.

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Earlier:

• Some media reports of reopening the US government
• Sunday session for US Senate as lawmakers seek band aid funding for 10% of government

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has signalled a major shift in fiscal policy, saying her government will drop the annual target for achieving a primary budget surplus in favour of a multi-year framework.

Speaking in parliament on Friday, Takaichi said progress in restoring Japan’s finances will be judged “over a span of several years,” effectively diluting the country’s long-standing fiscal consolidation goal.

Her administration plans a new stimulus package to offset rising living costs and boost investment in growth sectors and defence. Analysts see the move as another sign of Tokyo prioritising growth over budget tightening, even as public debt remains more than twice the size of the economy — the highest among major economies.

The change marks a clear break from past administrations that used the annual primary balance target as proof of fiscal discipline. Takaichi, a known advocate of government spending, has criticised the metric as too restrictive and out of step with global norms.

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The shift away from Japan’s annual fiscal target signals a more expansionary policy stance under Takaichi, reinforcing expectations of continued fiscal stimulus. Markets will likely view the move as supportive for growth but negative for the yen and bond stability.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ABC News reports that a sufficient number of Democrats are expected to back a short-term funding measure to end the U.S. government shutdown.

The proposal would extend federal funding until January 31 and fully finance the SNAP food assistance program and Veterans Affairs for the entire fiscal year, according to Senate sources.

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Stay tuned for further on this, just ‘reports’ at this stage, lets see what eventuates.

If true it should be a risk positive event.

Earlier on such moves is here:

• Sunday session for US Senate as lawmakers seek band aid funding for 10% of government

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has warned that air travel disruptions will deepen in the coming days as the country faces a third consecutive day of federally mandated flight reductions amid the ongoing government shutdown.

Duffy spoke in an interview with CNN’s State of the Union

• “It’s only going to get worse,”
• flight capacity could shrink to a “trickle” in the two weeks leading up to Thanksgiving
• a “substantial number” of Americans could miss holiday travel plans as a result
• on Saturday alone, there were 81 “staffing triggers”, incidents where flight operations were curtailed due to staffing shortages

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The background to this chaos is the government shutdown. As essential workers, controllers are required to work during a shutdown but without pay. This has led to widespread absenteeism, many controllers are seeking gig economy work to put food on the table, and operational strain.

• The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) introduced the cuts on Friday, affecting 40 major airports nationwide, in response to worsening air traffic controller shortages.
• By Sunday morning, more than 4,200 flights had been delayed and 1,520 cancelled, with Duffy warning tha
• The FAA expects the flight reductions to escalate over the week: capacity will drop 4% this weekend, 6% by Tuesday, 8% by Thursday, and up to 10% by Friday.

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Flight disruptions threaten to dent consumer spending and tourism activity heading into the U.S. holiday season. Extended shutdown-related travel chaos could ripple through airlines, hospitality, and retail sectors, adding short-term pressure to service-driven GDP growth.

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If you are in the US and planning a Thanksgiving flight, have back up plans in place would be my advice.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Senators returned to Capitol Hill for an unusual Sunday session as efforts intensified to bring an end to the 40-day government shutdown. While no formal votes were initially scheduled, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that “we plan to vote today” on a funding proposal intended to reopen parts of the government.

The Senate released three draft spending bills covering Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration, the Legislative Branch, and Military Construction and Veterans Affairs. Combined, they account for about 10% of overall federal funding.

However, the proposed legislation leaves unresolved the central issue behind the shutdown — the lapse of Affordable Care Act Medicare subsidies. Republicans are expected to attach provisions addressing these subsidies to a short-term continuing resolution, in an effort to draw bipartisan backing and end the standoff that has shuttered portions of the federal government for over a month.

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The prolonged U.S. government shutdown continues to cloud fiscal outlooks, delaying data releases and threatening broader confidence in Washington’s ability to govern effectively. Investors are watching closely for signs of a bipartisan deal before further disruptions to federal payments and economic reporting.

The damage is ongoing, earlier:

• Bessent says shut down impact getting worse for economy, Hasset says recession possible

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US economy is shrinking according to comments from these two senior Trump officials.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent:

• the impact of the government shut down on the economy is getting worse and worse
• expects prices to come down over the months ahead

(note, in a recession prices will tend to fall, or at least not rise so quickly, yes)

Trump key economic advisrer and candidate for Fed Chair Hasset:

• economic growth could be negative in the fourth quarter if the shut down drags on

(note, if negative economic growth persists for two quarters in a row that is the commonly accepted definition of an economic recession)

Bessent and Hassett are doing a couple of things here

• softening the public up for bad news on the economy in the months ahead
• seeking to blame others, not the administration they are key members of, for a possible recession in the US

For markets recessions are not good news, but the lower rates that usually result are tailwinds for risk assets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.