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Axios reports that the US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war.

It details:

One element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.

S&P 500 futures are up 40 points, roughly doubling on the headlines.

Importantly, the report also says that there has been “steady progress” in negotiations though “significant gaps remain”.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It’s been that kind of week in European trading, where markets are left in a bit of a bind but keeping the steady optimism for the most part. US-Iran developments continue to be the key thing to watch out for and market players are hanging on to hope that there will be some good news ahead of the ceasefire deadline on 22 April next week.

In doing his part, US president Trump continues to fuel the optimism as he says the war will be over “very soon”. And there are multiple reports about both sides looking for further progress in general. However, it’s still a case of having to wait and see.

For now, markets are definitely running with the narrative that good news will eventually come. The only question is when exactly will we see a material shift in the geopolitical landscape? Is it going to be in the next week? Or is it going to be in two to three months from now? There’s a big difference there.

Risk trades are holding on to hope that peace talks will succeed and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon enough. I can see the case of the former being pushed hard but on the latter, it is doubtful that we will get a big change to the status quo any time soon. And that is a big concern, with market players perhaps underestimating the impact of a prolonged disruption to the strait.

S&P 500 futures are up another 0.2% today with European indices also holding modest gains on the session so far. That’s another signal that risk sentiment continues to ignore the potential downside risks to the reality of the situation.

As for major currencies, the dollar is steadier once again but not really doing all too much. EUR/USD keeps just below 1.1800 while USD/JPY sits just above 159.00 as we approach the final stages this week. Those levels are not too different from where we were in the past two days.

If anything, it shows that currency traders are still holding some reservations and limiting their exposure. That as to not underestimate the potential for peace talks to fall apart.

Looking to betting markets, we can also see the shift in optimism among the broader public and money players. The odds of a nuclear deal before 30 April has surged up to 44% now, after having been as low as 3% at the start of the month:

However, even betting players are not really all too optimistic about the situation with regards to the Strait of Hormuz. They’re only seeing 28% odds of traffic returning to normal in the strait before the end of the month:

Those odds do jump up to roughly 65% for a timeline by the end of May and then 76% by the end of June.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Oil prices remain under pressure amid US-Iran deal optimism. What’s next?
• Markets keep with the more optimistic view in the final stretch of the week
• Gold struggles to gain steam amid US-Iran optimism as neutral Fed caps momentum
• IEA chief Birol says release of more emergency oil reserves is under consideration
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
• BoE’s Breeden: Iran war raises risk that vulnerabilities could crystallise
• Euro area trade balance moves back to surplus in February just before US-Iran conflict

Markets:

• Brent crude down 3% to $96.40
• WTI crude (May contract) down 3.5% to $91.30, WTI crude (June contract) down 3.5% to $88.00
• June contract for WTI has more open interest and volume, provides a better read on “front-month” price
• S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, major indices in Europe up 0.1% to 0.5%
• US dollar mixed but lightly changed across the board
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.30%
• Gold flat at $4,790, Silver up 1.1% to $79.30

It’s another slow session in Europe as markets are caught waiting on more US-Iran headlines before wanting to proceed.

But despite the trepidation, the steady optimism continues to flow this time around ahead of the weekend. Traders and investors look to be expecting good news to come, as peace talks are expected to show progress before the ceasefire deadline on 22 April.

Oil prices are sitting lower amid the better market mood, in spite of the fact that the Strait of Hormuz situation remains the same. The strait looks poised to enter its eighth straight week in de facto closure but market players are keeping the faith that the situation will be resolved sooner rather than later.

Brent crude is down by around 3% to $96.40 while “front-month” WTI crude is down 3.5% to $88.00 on the day. The June contract is arguably the better indicator of front-month pricing, with volume and open interest overtaking the May contract. The latter is still very much in play though, with the cutoff date only coming on 20 April next week.

In other markets, equities are continuing to fuel the optimism as investors push up stocks following Wall Street gains. The DAX is up 0.5% and CAC 40 up 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.2% on the day as well.

As for major currencies, there wasn’t much action with the dollar kept on a tight leash and mostly little changed. EUR/USD is up 0.1% to 1.1795 while USD/JPY is flat at 159.15 on the day, not offering much.

Elsewhere, gold is flat at $4,790 while silver is up 1.1% to $79.30 as precious metals are also waiting to take a cue from the broader market mood.

With the weekend set to arrive, it’s all on whether there will be any positive/negative murmurs before markets take a breather from the chaos.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Trade balance in the euro area already recorded a deficit of €1.0 billion (revised) in January, but at least returned to a surplus in February with an estimate of €11.5 billion. This improvement was primarily driven by the machinery and vehicles sector, where the surplus rose from €1.5 bn in January 2026 to €10.2 bn in February.

But considering the fact that surging energy prices will be a factor starting from the March report, this latest one for February is not relevant whatsoever anymore. The euro area imports roughly 60% of its energy requirements and as such, we will observe a big terms-of-trade shock in the data next month.

For some context, the trade balance in the euro area typically keeps at a surplus but ran a massive deficit for a prolonged period of time in during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And this looks set to be a repeat of that.

The massive widening in the energy deficit can be a big problem, especially if oil and gas prices keep higher for a sustained period of time. That will in turn weigh more heavily on the economic performance in the euro area region.

So while the energy deficit widening is the main thing to watch out, there could be a secondary impact on manufacturing too. When energy prices surge higher, it will eventually see energy-intensive production become too expensive. And that will also narrow the trade surplus from the chemicals sector for example.

For some backdrop, chemicals and related products have always been producing the biggest trade surplus margin for the region. In February, it recorded a surplus of €16.2 billion. Trouble, trouble.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• On possible release of more emergency oil reserves, “we are not there yet”
• However, it is definitely under consideration
• We should prepare ourselves for volatile markets for some time
• If Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices
• We estimate it will take approximately two years for overall oil production to reach pre-war levels again
• The push for use of electric vehicles will increase faster than previously anticipated

It looks like Japan will have to act in an isolated manner to push for their next round of emergency oil reserves release. With prices looking much calmer in the past week or so, you can bet that the US and Trump won’t have as much appetite to force the issue this time around.

As for the other comments, Birol is pretty much just stating the obvious for the most part. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it doesn’t mean that supply issues will immediately get resolved. As mentioned before, it will be a slow trickle at best and it will take many more months for key energy facilities to run back at full capacity.

In other words, it will take a long time before things actually normalise and that is assuming the war comes to an end and the strait is open for business in a meaningful way.

And if not, the market optimism we’re seeing here could really run into big trouble down the road with there being no change to the status quo on the Strait of Hormuz especially.

Sure, more positive talks and a deal of sorts may look play well on the optics. But when the hard data hits, nothing will change for markets and the global economy until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. That’s the main thing still.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• China signals loose policy, boosts fiscal and tech investment push
• ICYMI: IEA warns Europe may have ~6 weeks of jet fuel
• India ICYMI: RBI FX intervention intensifies, curbs refiners’ dollar buying
• NZ PM Luxon rejects leadership challenge as political pressure builds – watch the kiwi
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8622 (vs. estimate at 6.8206)
• Singapore exports surge on AI demand, beating forecasts
• Japan officials’ ‘no comment’ when asked if BoJ hike delay could trigger sharp yen fall
• Trump pump again – says war in Iran “should be ending pretty soon”
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda “no comment” on declining mkt expectations for April rate hike
• Trump pump – says it’ll be great for Hezbollah if they act nice and well
• G7 warns on war’s economic risks, signals action on inflation, supply chains
• Unverified reports Tehran plans to begin “initial steps” toward Bab al-Mandab block
• NZ food prices fall, spending slows as RBNZ maintains cautious stance
• ECRI: Markets underestimating global inflation upswing beyond oil
• RBA breaks ranks, will hike again, as global central banks stay sidelined: RBC
• U.S. to delay weapons deliveries to Europe as Iran war strains stockpiles
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Israel agrees to ceasefire in Lebanon
• Iran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon

At a glance:

• Mixed geopolitical signals: ceasefire talk offsets escalation risks (Bab al-Mandab threat unverified)
• Markets lean toward optimism on Trump ceasefire tone despite ongoing uncertainty
• BoJ flags oil-driven stagflation risk, keeps policy flexible and accommodative
• China reinforces easing bias and fiscal support; NZ political noise adds mild uncertainty
• FX subdued; equities softer as traders trim risk into weekend

Geopolitics

Geopolitical headlines remained mixed, with tentative signs of de-escalation offset by lingering risks to key shipping routes.

Iranian officials reiterated the need for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while unverified reports suggested Tehran could begin “initial steps” toward blocking the Bab al-Mandab Strait from midday tomorrow. That latter development, if confirmed, would represent a significant escalation risk for global trade and energy flows, though markets treated it cautiously given the lack of verification.

On the more constructive side, sentiment was supported by a series of optimistic remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump. He suggested the conflict could end “pretty soon” and pointed to positive developments around Lebanon, including ceasefire-related progress and the possibility of U.S.-Iran engagement over the weekend. While similar comments have been made repeatedly in recent weeks, markets appear increasingly willing to lean into the positive narrative.

Overall, the tone remains fragile, with de-escalation hopes balancing against persistent tail risks.

Central banks / macro

Central bank commentary reflected the growing complexity of the macro backdrop, particularly the inflation-growth trade-off stemming from higher energy prices.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasised that rising oil prices are acting as a drag on Japan’s growth while simultaneously pushing up inflation, highlighting a classic supply shock dilemma. He reiterated that monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with low real interest rates, and stressed that policy decisions will remain data-dependent and assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Ueda declined to be drawn on near-term rate expectations, reinforcing a cautious stance.

In China, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng reaffirmed confidence in the country’s long-term growth outlook while signalling that policy will remain “appropriately loose.” This was complemented by the NDRC outlining a broad fiscal and industrial push, including support for consumption, high-growth sectors such as AI and the digital economy, and expanded energy security measures.

In New Zealand, political developments added a layer of uncertainty, with Prime Minister Luxon pushing back against reports of a leadership challenge. While not immediately market-moving, softer polling trends and election-related risks could become more relevant over time.

FX

Major FX was relatively subdued. The yen weakened modestly, with limited support from official commentary suggesting that broader dollar strength, rather than idiosyncratic yen weakness, is driving moves. Good luck with that.

Equities

Asia-Pacific equities underperformed, with traders trimming exposure into the weekend despite positive cues from Wall Street. The cautious tone reflects ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and reluctance to carry risk amid fluid headline risk.

Houthis in Yemen will do the work to attempy po block Bab al-Mandeb if needed.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Singapore NODX rose 15.3% y/y in March, beating forecasts, as AI-driven electronics exports surged, though non-electronics remained weak and MAS warned of downside risks from global conditions.

Summary:

• Singapore NODX +15.3% y/y in March vs +9.4% expected (Reuters poll)
• Electronics exports surge +74% y/y, driven by AI demand
• Non-electronics still weak (-0.6% y/y), highlighting uneven recovery
• Export growth broadening across Asia, softer to US and EU
• MAS flags downside risks from energy shock and tighter global conditions

Singapore’s export sector delivered a strong upside surprise in March, driven by a surge in electronics shipments linked to artificial intelligence demand, although underlying momentum remains uneven across sectors and regions.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 15.3% year-on-year, well above the 9.4% increase expected in a Reuters poll and accelerating sharply from February’s 4% gain. The data marks a seventh consecutive month of expansion, reinforcing the resilience of Singapore’s externally driven economy despite rising global uncertainty.

The strength was heavily concentrated in electronics, where exports jumped 74% y/y, supported by robust AI-related demand and favourable base effects. Key contributors included integrated circuits, personal computers, and disk media products, underscoring Singapore’s position within the global semiconductor and tech supply chain.

However, the broader picture remains more mixed. Non-electronic exports declined 0.6% y/y, extending a run of weakness, though the pace of contraction moderated from February’s 6.9% drop. This divergence highlights a two-speed export profile, with tech-linked sectors outperforming while more traditional industries lag.

Regionally, export gains were concentrated within Asia, with shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China rising, while exports to the United States, European Union, and Indonesia declined compared to a year earlier. This suggests that demand linked to regional supply chains — particularly in electronics — remains stronger than in Western markets.

For policymakers, the data comes shortly after the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation and currency pressures. However, MAS has also flagged growing downside risks, warning that a prolonged energy shock could tighten global financial conditions and weigh on demand, including through potential negative spillovers to the AI-driven cycle.

While Singapore has upgraded its 2026 export growth forecast to 2–4%, the outlook remains contingent on global conditions. The March data reinforces near-term strength, but also highlights vulnerability to external shocks and the narrow base of the current export upswing.

Highlights strength in the global AI and semiconductor cycle, supporting tech-linked assets. However, uneven export growth and MAS caution reinforce sensitivity to global demand and energy-driven risks.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZ PM Luxon said he has full caucus support despite reports of a leadership push, as weak polling adds to political uncertainty ahead of the election, posing modest downside risks for NZD sentiment.

Summary:

• NZ PM Luxon rejects leadership challenge reports, says he has caucus support
• Media reports suggest internal pressure within National Party
• Polling shows declining support for Luxon and coalition risks ahead of election
• Political uncertainty adds to already fragile NZ economic backdrop
• Limited immediate market impact, but risks skewed to NZD sentiment and fiscal outlook

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has pushed back against reports of a potential leadership challenge, insisting he retains full support from his National Party caucus despite rising political pressure ahead of this year’s general election.

Speaking to reporters, Luxon said he remains confident in his position, dismissing suggestions that party members are preparing to move against him when parliament returns. Local media reports have indicated that some lawmakers are considering a push for leadership change, though not necessarily through an immediate formal challenge or confidence vote.

The political noise comes as polling trends point to weakening support for both Luxon and the governing coalition. Recent surveys show the National Party struggling to consistently poll above 30%, raising questions about its ability to retain power at the 7 November 2026 election. Leadership preference data has also turned unfavourable, with opposition leader Chris Hipkins polling ahead of Luxon in at least one recent survey.

From a macro perspective, the developments add a layer of political uncertainty to an already mixed economic backdrop. New Zealand’s economy has been navigating subdued growth, elevated interest rates, and a gradual disinflation process, leaving policymakers at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in a cautious holding pattern.

While the immediate economic impact of the political developments is limited, the situation could become more market-relevant if it begins to influence fiscal policy expectations or investor confidence. A weaker or more contested government heading into the election may reduce policy clarity at a time when economic conditions remain fragile.

For financial markets, the implications are likely to be modest in the near term but skewed to sentiment. The New Zealand dollar could face mild pressure if political instability intensifies, particularly against a backdrop of global risk sensitivity and commodity price volatility. Domestic bond markets may remain anchored by the RBNZ’s policy stance, though longer-term yields could begin to reflect increased fiscal uncertainty if political risks escalate.

Overall, while not yet a market-moving event, the political backdrop is becoming an increasingly relevant secondary factor for New Zealand assets as the election approaches.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

more to come

Trump is speaking at an event in LasVegas. Feedng the chooks.

–

Earlier:

• Iran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon
• Unverified reports Tehran plans to begin “initial steps” toward Bab al-Mandab block

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

G7 finance chiefs warned the Middle East war risks damaging growth and fuelling inflation, signalling readiness to act on energy shocks while accelerating efforts to diversify critical minerals supply chains.

Summary:

• G7 flags urgent need to limit economic fallout from Middle East war
• Central banks ready to act to prevent energy shock feeding into core inflation
• IEA oil releases highlight coordinated response to supply disruption
• Rare earths and critical minerals diversification away from China in focus
• Free transit through Hormuz seen as key to stabilising energy markets

G7 finance ministers and central bank governors have warned of mounting risks to the global economy from the Middle East conflict, pledging coordinated action to contain inflation pressures and safeguard energy and supply chains.

Meeting on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, officials agreed that limiting the economic damage from a prolonged conflict is an urgent priority, while emphasising the need to move toward a lasting peace. The group highlighted growing concern over both direct and second-round effects from the energy shock, particularly its potential to feed into broader inflation dynamics.

From a policy perspective, G7 central banks signalled a readiness to respond if needed, while stressing that they are not yet in “rush mode.” Officials indicated they would act to prevent higher energy and commodity prices from becoming embedded in core inflation through second- and third-round effects, but will rely on incoming data before adjusting policy settings.

Fiscal and policy coordination has already been deployed. Backed by the G7, the International Energy Agency released record volumes from strategic reserves to offset supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Officials indicated further intervention remains on the table if conditions deteriorate, underscoring a willingness to use inventories and coordinated measures to stabilise markets.

Energy security remains central. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure stressed the importance of ensuring uninterrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, warning against any attempt to impose transit costs. Maintaining open and cost-free passage is seen as critical to preventing further volatility in global oil markets and limiting inflation spillovers.

Beyond energy, the G7 also sharpened its focus on supply chain resilience. Finance leaders discussed concrete steps to develop alternative supply chains for rare earths and critical minerals, aiming to reduce dependence on China’s dominant position. This reflects a broader strategic push to insulate key industrial inputs from geopolitical disruption.

The group also reaffirmed support for Ukraine, with a focus on sustaining its economy, energy infrastructure, and reform agenda, while maintaining pressure on Russia.

Overall, the G7 message points to a coordinated policy stance: monitor closely, act if needed, and prioritise preventing an energy shock from morphing into a broader inflation problem.

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Reinforces a coordinated global policy backstop, helping cap extreme energy-driven inflation risks. Focus on Hormuz and supply chains keeps oil, shipping, and industrial metals central to market pricing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The latest from Trump:

Trump is happy with stock markets bouncing back.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZ food prices fell 0.6% m/m (prev -0.1%) while retail card spending rose 0.7% (prev 1.4%), showing easing inflation and slowing demand, reinforcing expectations the RBNZ will hold rates steady.

Summary:

• NZ food prices -0.6% m/m (prev -0.1%), annual pace 3.4% – Stats NZ
• Core retail card spending +0.7% m/m (prev +1.4%), signalling slower momentum
• Total card spending +1.3% m/m (prev +1.1%, revised to +1.3%)
• Data points to easing inflation but still-resilient, moderating demand
• RBNZ likely to remain on hold as disinflation continues gradually

New Zealand data showed a combination of easing food price pressures and moderating, but still resilient, consumer spending in March, reinforcing expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will remain on hold.

Food prices fell 0.6% month-on-month in March, a deeper decline than the previous -0.1%, according to Statistics New Zealand. On an annual basis, food prices rose 3.4%, with the category accounting for nearly 19% of the CPI basket. The latest drop adds to evidence that near-term inflation pressures in household essentials are easing.

Retail spending data, however, painted a more nuanced picture. Core electronic card spending rose 0.7% m/m, slowing from a stronger 1.4% increase previously. Meanwhile, total card spending rose 1.3% m/m, matching the upwardly revised 1.3% print for February (initially reported as 1.1%). The data suggests consumption remains supported but is losing some momentum as higher interest rates continue to weigh on households.

Together, the figures point to a gradual cooling in inflation alongside a still-functioning consumer sector, rather than a sharp slowdown in activity.

For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the data reinforces a cautious policy stance. Price pressures are easing in some categories, while underlying inflation remains a concern.

The broader economic backdrop remains mixed. Growth has been uneven, with weakness in housing and business investment offset by pockets of resilience in consumption. External risks, particularly from global energy markets, continue to cloud the outlook and could complicate the inflation trajectory.

For now, the moderation in both inflation and spending supports a “wait-and-see” approach from the RBNZ. Policymakers are likely to keep rates unchanged in the near term, looking for clearer evidence that inflation is durably contained without a sharper deterioration in economic activity.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.