Articles

• Hasset says expects trade deals in the next week or tow
• Dell beats on revenue as AI server demand surges, but EPS misses
• Tech Stocks move higher. U.S. major indices close higher. Nvidia rises after earnings
• Fed’s Daly says workers are worried about inflation
• Reuters: US appeal court reinstates Trump tariffs during appeal temporarily
• U.S. crude oil futures settle at $60.94/bbl, down 90 cents, or 1.46%
• Fed’s Kugler Does not comment on the economy/monetary policy
• Treas Sec. Bessent and Greer have been in touch with counterparts on tariffs
• White House: Isreal signed off a Israel/Hamas ceasefire proposal
• More Goolsbee: If court ruling on tariffs leads to more uncertainty, that is negative
• US treasury auctions off $44 billion or 7 year notes at a high yield of 4.194%
• Feds Powell met with US Pres. Trump at the White House today
• Second US court blocks Trump tariffs in case filed by toy company.
• Crude oil inventores drawdown -2.795M vs estimated build of 0.118M
• Axios: Israel is ready to move forward to a hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza
• BOE Bailey: Merit in seeking to increase the openness of our financial markets
• Fed’s Goolsbee: If tariffs are avoided by a deal or otherwise, could lead to rates lower
• Canada PM Carney: Canada is still being hit by unjustified US tariffs on steel/autos
• US pending home sales for April tumble -6.3% versus -1.0% estimate
• US moves lower as markets react to weaker claims data
• WH Navarro on Bloomberg: There is no question, this is an economic emergency.
• US Q1 2nd estimate GDP -0.2% vs -0.3% expected
• US initial jobless claims 240K vs 230K expected
• Reuters poll: ECB to cut rate to 2.00% on June 5
• The USD is little change after run higher on endingTrump Liberation Day tariffs fizzles
• We are confident in success of tariff ruling appeal – Hassett
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Markets continue to digest court ruling on Trump tariffs

A full slate of U.S. data and policy news hit markets on Thursday, with mixed signals from the economy and key developments on the trade front. While economic figures showed weakness, a court ruling on Trump-era tariffs was also an influence.

Trade policy developments

At the start of the day, a panel of federal judges from the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that former President Trump overstepped his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose wide-reaching tariffs on China and other countries. The court found that the law—designed for embargoes and sanctions, not tariffs—does not grant the president “unbounded authority” to tax imports globally. The ruling declared many of the tariffs illegal and gave the administration 10 days to begin winding them down. However, the Trump administration quickly filed an appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

Later this afternoon, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated many of former President Trump’s tariffs on China and other trading partners, pausing a lower court’s earlier ruling that had deemed the duties illegal. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued the stay on an administrative basis, allowing time to consider the Trump administration’s request for a longer delay. The move helps preserve Trump’s key trade weapon while the legal battle over the tariffs continues.

White House officials sought to downplay the impact. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett called the earlier ruling a “hiccup,” expressing confidence in the administration’s trade strategy. WH Economic Advisor said that you can assume even if they lose tariff cases, they will do it another way.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee weighed in and warned that tariff-related uncertainty could weigh on the economic outlook. He noted that:

• If tariffs are avoided—whether through a deal or other means—it could create conditions where interest rates might come down.

• However, if politics starts to dictate interest rate policy, inflation could reemerge.

• Central banks must sometimes make decisions unpopular with political leaders to maintain stability.

• The recent court ruling on tariffs, while significant, may prolong uncertainty if the administration seeks other ways to justify tariffs.

• That prolonged uncertainty, Goolsbee said, would be a negative for the economy.

Key economic data today showed

• GDP (Q1 2025): The U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of -0.2%, slightly better than the initial -0.3% estimate. Weakness was driven by higher imports and reduced government spending, despite modest gains in business investment and exports.

• Corporate profits: Profits fell by $118.1 billion, the sharpest quarterly drop since 2020, reflecting margin pressures and slowing demand across several sectors.

• Initial jobless claims: Rose to 240,000, up 14,000 from the prior week and above estimates. Is it temporary due to faulty seaonals or is it the start of a weaker trend?

  • Continuing claims: Increased to 1.919 million, the highest since November 2021, hinting at a gradually cooling labor market.

• Pending home sales (April): Fell 6.3% month-over-month, the steepest drop since mid-2022. All regions declined, with the West leading losses. High mortgage rates and uncertainty weighed on housing demand.

The USD today fell across the major currencies, helped by lower rates which are ending near session lows.

For the greenback it fell by

• -0.68% versus EUR
• -0.46% versus the JPY
• -0.16% versus the GBP
• -0.56% versus the CHF
• -0.17% versus the CAD
• -0.25% versus the AUD
• -0.07% versus the NZD

Looking at the US debt market as the day draws to a close:

• 2 year yield 3.938%, -5.3 basis points.
• 5- year yield 3.998%, -6.4 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.422%, -5.7 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.91%, -5.7 basis points

Major US indices closed higher

• Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 117 points to 42,215.73 (+0.28%)

• S&P 500 gained 23.62 points to 5,912.17 (+0.40%)

• Nasdaq Composite climbed 74.93 points to 19,175.87 (+0.39%)

After the close both Costco and Dell reported earnings. Dell shares are trading up 2.68% in after-hours trading. Costco is trading marginally higher.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China and Japan have agreed on steps to resume Japanese seafood imports, according to the Nikkei, signaling a potential end to China’s 2023 trade ban.

• Japan will register seafood processing facilities with China and include inspection certificates confirming no radioactive contamination.
• The deal follows efforts to ease tensions after Japan’s release of treated Fukushima wastewater.

  China is expected to soon lift import restrictions on seafood from Japanese regions outside Fukushima.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Hassett with more baloney.

• Expect trade deals in next week or two
• Have been briefed on three that are about to happen
• Had productive talks with India

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a packed data agenda ahead.

As background to the Tokyo area inflation data:

• National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.
• Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPI
  It measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan area
  Its considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hub.
• Historically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example.

While the data is going to be watched the focus in Japan right now is on JGB yields (getting the long end under control) and tariff chaos.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Costco and Dell will report earnings after the close:

Costco

• EPS estimate $4.24. That compares to $3.78 in the same period a year ago.
• Revenues are expected at $63.13 billion which compares to 58.52 billion last year

Dell:

• EPS is expected at $1.70. A year ago it was at $1.27.
• Revenues are expected at $23.18 billion. A year ago, revenues were reported at $22.24 billion.
• Server backlog last quarter came in at $9 billion.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A US appeals court has reinstated US president Trumps tariffs during appeal temporarily.

The keyword is “temporarily”. I would assume that is for a formal appeal to take place, but cannot be too sure.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures settle at $60.94. That is down $0.90 or -1.46%.

The high price reached $63.04. The low price was at $60.57 the price is closing below it’s 100 and 200 hour moving averages.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

White House is also reporting that Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer have been in touch with counterparts on tariffs after court ruling.

• They will win the trade battle in court.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

White House is saying:

• Israel signed off on cease-fire proposal
• discussions are continuing
• Hamas is not accepted it yet
• Countries intend to continue trade talks despite ruling deeming Liberation Day tariffs void
• US trade policy will continue
• The Pres. has other authorities for tariffs

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• High yield 4.194%
• Wi level at the time of the auction 4.216%
• Tail -2.2 basis points. The six month average -0.8 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.69X. The six month average 2.64X
• Direct 23.64% versus the six month average of 21.4%
• Indirects 71.52% vs the six month average of 67.6%.
• Dealers 4.85% vs six month average of 11.0%.

Auction Details and Evaluation

Grade Justification: A

• Why not A+? While all metrics are solid or better-than-average, the bid-to-cover was only modestly above average, not exceptional. A perfect score would typically require blowout figures across all categories.

• Strengths: The deep tail, strong indirect and direct participation, and low dealer retention all point to very strong end-user demand — the market wanted this issuance.

Summary

This was a very strong auction with broad participation and pricing well through the WI. The only reason for not assigning a perfect “A+” is that the bid-to-cover wasn’t exceptionally high — just slightly better than average. Still, an A grade reflects excellent overall execution.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The FT is reporting:

• Germany is reportedly buying a 10% digital tax on global tech giants like Meta and Google.
• German Chancellor Merz’s coalition agreed to evaluate a tax on Internet platforms in its treaty signed in early May.
• The proceeds would be used to strengthen the country’s media landscape.

Is that a tariff on a US business?

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.