Articles

• Powell did not discuss expectations from monetary policy
• Powell said his policy will depend on incoming economic information

The full statement from the Fed on the meeting.

May 29, 2025

Statement on Chair Powell’s meeting with the President

For immediate release

At the President’s invitation, Chair Powell met with the President today at the White House to discuss economic developments including for growth, employment, and inflation.

Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.

Finally, Chair Powell said that he and his colleagues on the FOMC will set monetary policy, as required by law, to support maximum employment and stable prices and will make those decisions based solely on careful, objective, and non-political analysis.

I would have loved to watch that live….

Wonder if Trump will spin things Powell said?

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A 2nd US court blocks Trump tariffs in case filed by toy company

• Pusing tariff order for 14 days.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Crude drawdown -2.795M vs est build of 0.118M
• Gasoline drawdown -2.441M vs estimated drawdown of -0.527M
• Distillates drawdown -0.724M vs estimate of build of 0.481M
• Cushing build of 0.075M vs est of drawdown of -0.457M

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg is reporting that the US (I assume the Trump administration) may ask the Supreme Court on Friday to keep the tariffs intact.

Meanwhile, as European traders look to exit, the down – labs has turned negative with the index now down -114.5-0.27% at 41982. The S&P is up by 5.55 points or 0.09%. The NASDAQ index is up 69.23 points or 0.36%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Axios Ravid is x-ing on comments from Israeli Netanyahu and potential issues:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Canada PM Carney, has stuck his toe in the Trump water, by saying that Canada is still being hit by unjustified US tariffs on steel and autos. You never know what the reaction may be.

The USDCAD is lower on the day, but has seen a modest rebound off the lows. Looking at the hourly chart, the price low reached 1.3784 which was support at 1.3781 and then the 100-hour MA at 1.3775. The price remains below the 200-hour MA at 1.38351.In between sits the 38.2% of the May trading range at 1.38107.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month +6.1% revised to 5.5%
• Pending home sales for April -6.3% versus -1.0% estimate
• pending home sales index 71.3 versus 76.1 (revised from 76.5)
• Sales are down -2.5% year over year
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is near 6.98% which is putting a brake on sales

Regionally,

• Northeast -0.6%
• West -8.9%
• Midwest -5%
• South -7.7%

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun,

“At this critical stage of the housing market, it is all about mortgage rates. Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales. Lower mortgage rates are essential to bring home buyers back into the housing market.”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

WH economic advisor Peter Navarro on Bloomberg:

• There is no question, this is an economic emergency
• Nothing much has changed due to the trade ruling
• Initial measures on China were targeted on Fentanyl imports
• What the US has done already is perfectly appropriate
• USTR Greer will clarify potential administrative actions during the appeal of the trade court ruling. The announcement will come soo.
• The administration has a number of different options on trade
• On the tax bill, the CBO is historically bad at estimating tax bills impact.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior estimate -0.3%
• GDP 2nd revision -0.2% versus -0.3% expected
• GDP deflator 3.7% versus 3.7% expected and 3.7% preliminary
• Core AC prices 3.4% versus 3.5% estimate and 3.5% preliminary
• PCE prices preliminary 3.6% versus 3.6% preliminary
• PCE ex food, energy and Housing 3.3% versus 3.4% preliminary
• PCE ex energy and housing 4.1% vs 4.2% preliminary
• Sales preliminary -2.9% versus -2.5% advanced release
• Consumer spending +1.2% versus 1.8% advanced release

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 227K (revised to 226K)
• Continuing claims 1919K vs 1894K expected
• Prior 1903K (revised to 1893K)

Nothing worrying here as the data continues to show a steady labour market. The continuing claims data pertains to the NFP survey week and it just made a new cycle high. That could translate into an uptick in the unemployment rate. Note that the data could get revised the next week though.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

ECB poll:

• All 81 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to cut deposit rate to 2% on June 5.
• ECB to pause in July according to 71% of the economists
• note majority among economists for timing of next ECB deposit rate cut after June, but at least one more expected.
• Eurozone economy to grow 0.9% and 1.1% in 2025 and 2026 (versus 0.8% and 1.2% in the April poll.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Judges’ decision on tariffs will be overturned
• Trump administration has different options on tariffs
• Tariff ruling will not affect ongoing trade deals
• Still expects more trade deals in the coming weeks
• Three trade deals are basically done, ready for Trump decision as of last week

You wouldn’t expect anything less as Trump will go down fighting if he has to on pushing forward with these tariffs. The appeal will still take some time to play out but you can bet Trump will want it to be fast tracked. And if not, he will push it to the Supreme Court otherwise. We’ll now have to see if the ruling will be upheld or not in due time.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.