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The major US indices are closing lower ahead of Nvidia earnings. The declines are consistent across the major indices near -0.5% to -0.6%.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• Dow Industrial average -244.95 points or -0.58% at 42098.70.
• S&P index fell -32.99 points or -0.56% at 5888.55
• Nasdaq fell -98.22 points or -0.51% at 19100.94.

Salesforce is out with their earnings:

• EPS $2.58 vs $2.54 est
• Revenues $9.8B vs 9.74B est,.
• Guidance for Q2 EPS $2.76-$2.78 vs $2.72 est Rev $10.11 to $10.16B vs $10.01 est
• FY EPS $11.27-$11.33 vs est. of $11.14. Rev $41.0 to $41.3B vs $40.79B est.

Shares are up 5.01% in after hours trading to $289.87 after falling -0.42% on the day to $276.03

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The UK’s Financial Times is reporting that Pres. Trump is ordering US chip designers to stop selling to China.

• Shares of Nvidia are still trading up $1.17 or 0.88% at $136.78 ahead of the earnings to be released after the close.
• Shares of AMD are down one dollar at $113.56 (-0.86%).
• Broadcom shares are trading up $4.41 or 1.87% at $240.03.
• Intel is training down $0.11 or -0.53% at $20.44.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $61.94. That’s up $0.95 or 1.56%.

Later today, the private inventory data will be released. Tomorrow the EIA weekly data will announce their inventory changes.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NVIDIA will release its earnings after the market closes.

Below are the expectations:.

• Revenue: Analysts forecasted revenue of approximately $43.3 billion, a 65% increase year-over-year ($26.04B), driven primarily by the data center segment (AI chips), expected to contribute ~$39.4 billion. NVIDIA’s guidance from the prior quarter projected $43 billion (±2%). The company has a history of beating revenue estimates for nine consecutive quarters.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Wall Street anticipated an adjusted EPS of $0.89 up from $0.61 last year. ~46% from the year-ago period. Zacks projected $0.93, while others cited $0.88. NVIDIA’s prior quarter reported $0.89 adjusted EPS, beating estimates.

• Gross Margin: Expected to be around 71%, slightly below prior quarters (mid-70s range), reflecting potential margin pressure from a $5.5 billion inventory write-down for the H20 chip due to China export restrictions.

• Key Focus Areas:

  • Data Center and Blackwell: The Blackwell AI chip, which generated $11 billion in Q4 FY2025, was expected to see a “significant ramp” in sales. Data center revenue, a core driver (~90% of total revenue), was projected to remain robust despite China-related headwinds.

  • China Impact: A $5.5 billion write-down on H20 chips, potentially representing $15 billion in lost China revenue, was a major investor concern. NVIDIA has pivoted to cheaper Blackwell chips for China to comply with export limits.

  • Guidance: Investors were focused on Q2 FY2026 guidance, with analysts expecting ~$46.4 billion in revenue. Strong guidance could counter concerns about trade tensions and AI spending slowdowns.

  • Market Sentiment: Despite a 19–22% stock decline from its 2025 peak due to trade war fears and tariff concerns, optimism remained high, with 87% of analysts rating NVDA a “Buy.” Options traders anticipated a 7% stock price swing post-earnings.

For the year, the stock is up 1.78% or $2.28. The closing price for 2024 was at $134.29. The current price is at $136.47. The low price this year reached $86.62. That represented a decline of 35.4% from the 2024 closing level.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• High-yield 4.071%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.075%
• Tail -0.4 basis points vs six month average of -0.5 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.39X vs six month average of 2.4X
• Directs (measure of domestic demand) 12.4% vs six month average of 20.2%
• Indirects (measure of international demand) and the 78.4% vs six month average of 68.2%
• Dealers 9.24% versus six month average of 11.6%

Auction Metrics vs Averages

1. High Yield: 4.071% vs WI 4.075%

   • Tail: -0.4 basis points (slightly better than market)

   • Positive: The auction cleared slightly through the when-issued level, indicating investors were willing to accept a slightly lower yield than expected—a mild sign of strong demand.

2. Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.39x vs 2.4x average

   • Neutral: Just a tick below average, suggesting solid but not standout demand.

3. Direct Bidders: 12.4% vs 20.2% average

   • Negative: Domestic real-money interest was notably below average, which is a concern and weighs on the grade.

4. Indirect Bidders: 78.4% vs 68.2% average

   • Strong Positive: This is the standout metric. International demand (often foreign central banks or large institutions) was well above average, offsetting the weakness in direct bids.

5. Dealer Takedown: 9.24% vs 11.6% average

   • Positive: Dealers were left with less than average, a good sign that end-user demand (especially from indirects) was strong.

Summary

• Positives: Strong foreign demand, better-than-market clearing yield, below-average dealer burden.

• Neutral: Average bid-to-cover ratio.

• Negative: Weak domestic direct bidding.

Final Grade: B+

This auction showed healthy demand overall, anchored by strong international interest and minimal dealer exposure. While domestic direct participation was soft, it was more than offset by the high indirect bids. The slight negative tail and average bid-to-cover keep it from being an A-tier auction, but overall performance was solid.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Cannot tell if Putin wants to end the war

• Will find out soon

• Will respond differently if Putin playing us

• Will take about a week to find out

• Disappointed in what happened in Ukraine

• My words on Russia speak loudly

• Doing well with Iran, Gaza

• Parties in Gaza still have to agree to document

• On Musk comments: We need to get a lot of votes

• On Musk comments: We will negotiate bill, not happy about all aspects of it

• On Musk comments: Bill has a way to go

• Thune working with me, others

• Need all Republican votes on bill

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Iran may agree to pause nuclear enrichment work temporarily, if US recognizes Tehran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian uses.

• Temporary halt to nuclear activity under a political agreement would also require US to release frozen Iranian funds.

The price of crude oil came off highs which peaked at $62.50 and was trading near $62.34 prior to the headline. The price low off of the news reached to $61.86. The current price is trading back above $62 and $62.15.

When you ask, how much do you trust your enemies?—the implied answer seems to be: not much, and perhaps not at all. Temporary negotiations, temporary tariffs, temporary ceasefires—they’re all rooted in the lack of enduring trust. These arrangements are often not about mutual understanding or reconciliation, but rather managing risk, delaying conflict, or creating leverage. They’re tactical pauses, not genuine peace.

Even more unsettling is your follow-up: What about those presumed not to be your enemies? That’s where it gets murky. In a world defined by shifting alliances, economic dependencies, and political gamesmanship, even “friends” have competing interests. And when everyone is hedging, perhaps everyone is an enemy—at least potentially.

So maybe the temporariness of everything isn’t a flaw—it’s a feature. It’s a recognition that trust, like peace, isn’t something granted. It’s something continually negotiated, managed, and, all too often, withdrawn.

Just some thoughts—but heavy, important ones.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A major European indices are closing lower on the day as London/European traders exit:

• German DAX which closed at a record level yesterday, felt -188.30 points or -0.78% at 24038 .20.
• France’s CAC fell -38.69 points or -0.49% at 7788.11.
• UK’s FTSE 100 fell 52.05 points or -0.59% at 8726.01.
• Spain’s Ibex fell 139.30 points or -0.98% at 14100.61.
• Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 2.85 points or 0.01% at 40127.74.

As European traders exit for the day, US indices are also modestly lower ahead of Nvidia and Salesforce earnings after the close:

• Dow industrial average -124 points or -0.29% at 42219.26.
• S&P index -14.50 points or -0.25% at 5906.96.
• NASDAQ index -25.15 points or -0.13% at 19173.82.

Shares of Nvidia are trading up 0.21% at $135.76. Shares of Salesforce are down -0.42% at $276.03. Earnings for both companies will be released after the close.

• Nvidia earnings are expected to come in at $0.73 on revenues of $43.34 billion
• Salesforce earnings are expected at $2.55 on revenues of $9.75 billion.

Looking at the US debt market ahead of the five year note auction,

• 2year yield 3.992%, +4.3 basis points
• 5year yield 4.076%, +5.3 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.493%, +5.9 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.997%, +5.0 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The details from the OPEC+ meeting:

• OPEC reaffirms the level of overall crude oil production for OPEC and non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC as agreed in the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting until 31 December 2026

• OPEC+ has agreed to use 2025 oil output levels for 2027 baseline, source says

• OPEC+ to mandate the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to assess participating countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) to be used as reference for 2027 production baselines

• OPEC says it is to closely review global oil market conditions, oil production levels, and the level of conformity with the DoC, assisted by the OPEC Secretariat

• OPEC+ to meet next on Nov 30

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -13
• Richmond Fed composite index for May -9 versus -13 last month
• Services index -11 versus -7 last month.

• Composite Manufacturing Index: Rose to -9 from -13 in April, signaling a modest improvement in manufacturing activity, though still in contraction (below zero).

Details from the Richmond Fed.

Component Indexes:

• Shipments: Improved to -10 from -17 in April, reflecting a less severe decline in goods shipped.

• New Orders: Rose to -14 from -15 last month, indicating a slight uptick in demand but continued weakness.

Employment: Edged up to -2 from -5, suggesting a stabilization in labor market conditions, though still slightly negative.

Other Key Metrics (based on typical survey structure from the Richmond Fed):

• Backlogs -19 versus -24 last month,

• Inventories 18 versus 23 last month,

• Vendor Lead Times 15 versus one last month:Capacity Utilization: Expected to have improved marginally, tracking with shipments and new orders.

• Wages 23 versus 24 last month

• Prices paid 5.35 versus 5.37 last month.

• Prices received 2.73 versus 2.65 last month

Service Sector Context: The survey also noted a decline in the services revenues index to -11 from -7, indicating weaker performance in the service sector, which contrasts with manufacturing’s slight improvement.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are trading little changed ahead of Nvidia and salesforce earnings after the close.

• Dow industrial average +10.68 points or 0.02% at 42355.93.
• S&P index up 2.65 points or 0.04% at 5924.01
• NASDAQ index up 4.09 points or 0.02% at 19203.

• Nvidia (NVDA): Shares are trading at $135.44 ahead of its Q1 earnings release after the close today (down -0.07%). Analysts are keen on data center growth, developments in China, and the potential of “sovereign AI” clients like Saudi Arabia.

• Broadcom (AVGO): Currently at $236.16 up $0.46 or 0.19%. The stock has seen a price target increase to $283 from $198 by Melius Research, citing strong AI chip demand.

• Salesforce (CRM): Shares are at $277.52 of $0.33 or 0.12%. The company will announce earnings after the close. Canaccord, cut their price target to $350 from $400 after its $8B acquisition of Informatica. The deal is expected to enhance earnings and cash flow.

• Macy’s (M): Trading at $12.015, the company reported a quarterly beat but cut its guidance due to tariff concerns. Despite this, the stock rose 4%.

• Tesla (TSLA): Shares are at $361.23, down -0.46%. Elon Musk has expressed concerns over President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” stating it undermines the Department of Government Efficiency’s efforts. Elon’s SpaceX Starship rocket experienced another setback, exploding during its ninth test flight. Despite the failure, Musk noted progress compared to previous attempts

  .

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.