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The Kremlin is saying that Istanbul may be the next venue for the next Russia/Ukraine talks.

Trump has been sending warning shots over the bow, calling Putin crazy and saying that he is “playing with fire” in reaction to the recent bombing of Ukraine.

Earlier today, the US State Department spokesman Bruce said the US is ready to exert maximum pressure on Russia. That was hinted at yesterday. The problem is that sanctions have already led to sharply lower trade. We will see what additional pressure they can apply.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng is on the wires saying:

• Welcomes US financial institutions to deepen cooperation with China.
• Welcomes US financial institutions, long-term capital to paricipate in China’s Capital market
• Me with Morgan Stanley executive in Beijing

The US 145% tariffs on China imports were lowered on May 12 with a 90-day reprieve. That clock is ticking.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

White House CEO Miran:

• Canada is anxious for a trade deal with the US.
• ON EU, thinks they will come around.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Lagarde reportedly has discussed cutting short ECB stint to head WEF
• ECB reaffirms that Lagarde is determined to complete her term at the central bank
• Swiss government says further development on tariffs is still uncertain
• Japan autos facing big impact from US tariffs, says Akazawa
• Euro area consumers see higher near-term inflation expectations – ECB survey
• Germany April import prices -1.7% vs -1.4% m/m expected
• Germany May unemployment change 34k vs 10k expected
• France Q1 final GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q prelim
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 23 May -1.2% vs -5.1% prior

Markets:

• NZD leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.453%
• Gold up 0.4% to $3,312.03
• WTI crude up 1.0% to $61.50
• Bitcoin down 0.6% to $108,929

It was a rather quiet session with not much in it really. There weren’t any meaningful headlines, just some transfer gossip about Christine Lagarde’s future. The word on the street is that she might be vacating her post at the ECB a little earlier than expected, in favour of a move to the WEF. Of course, the ECB was quick to come out to refute the report.

Other than that, there wasn’t too much else as markets wait on fresh catalysts ahead of month-end trading.

Major currencies were largely subdued with the dollar holding steadier and more mixed across the board. The changes on the day are light, with EUR/USD and USD/JPY more or less flattish ahead of US trading now at 1.1320 and 144.40 respectively.

In other markets, European indices are also looking more tepid today. The DAX is down 0.4% after having hit fresh record highs yesterday, with not much follow through for now. As for US futures, they are little changed but off the lows earlier in the day at least. The key risk event will only come after the market close in the form of Nvidia’s earnings release. Speaking of which, I can’t remember the last time Nvidia didn’t disappoint investors so we’ll see if they can keep that streak going.

In the bond market, yields are nudging back up a bit with the interesting part of this coming from a weak 40-year auction in Japan. That might be a signal that the recent bounce may have run its course with yields looking to move back up again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last week, crude oil prices came under renewed pressure as we got the news that OPEC+ was considering another 411K B/D output hike in July.

The bearish momentum wasn’t enough though to break below a key support zone around the 60.00 handle as better global growth expectations continue to support the market.

This supply and demand balance though is keeping the market in a range and we will likely need a catalyst to see a breakout on either side.

On the daily chart, we can see that we have a strong resistance zone in the 63.00-64.00 price area and a major trendline. The buyers will need to break above those two key levels to open the door for a rally into the 72.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will continue to pile in around the resistance to position for a drop back into the 55.00 low.

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we are stuck in a range between the 60.00 support and the 64.00 resistance. The market participants will continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -5.1%
• Market index 235.7 vs 238.5 prior
• Purchase index 162.1 vs 157.8 prior
• Refinance index 634.1 vs 682.5 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.98% vs 6.92% prior

The slight drop in mortgage applications in the past week is led by a decline in refinancing activity, partially offset by higher purchase activity. But with rates still keeping on the higher side, that will put pressure on the market if it stays that way in the weeks/months to come.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin has been on a great ride since Trump’s
tariff pause announcement back on April 9. We’ve seen the same with the
US stock market given that the main macro drivers for both are growth
expectations and liquidity.

Growth
expectations remain positive and the soft data is now showing improvement across the board with the US consumer confidence yesterday confirming the trend. The US Flash PMIs last week were also very good although the inflation part could pose a problem.

The only risk I see ahead for risk assets is a more hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations if inflation worries increase. This
repricing might trigger a bigger pullback in Bitcoin and the stock
market in the short-term, although the uptrend would remain unchanged.

Therefore, the economic data is now back in focus, especially on the inflation side.

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is now trading near the key trendline that’s been defining the bullish momentum since April. We can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to target a pullback into the 102,127 level next.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Swiss federal council consults on impact of US tariffs, agrees on existing instruments
• No slump in overall economic development currently expected

So far, there’s not too much progress on this front with Switzerland yesterday saying that they are hoping for a result from talks with the US only in early July.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD has been supported
across the board in the first half of the month as the positive news on the
trade front triggered a more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. Once
the market got back in line with the Fed’s baseline of two rate cuts in 2025,
the greenback lost that support and began to weaken again.

For further gains, the US
Dollar will need either strong economic data to make the market to price out the
rest of the rate cuts expected by year-end or weak data from its peers to make
the divergence with the Fed stronger.

Yesterday, we got a little taste of that as the very soft French inflation figures weighed on the euro. The ECB policymakers also continue to blame the stronger euro for the
downside risks for inflation. This might eventually force them to cut
more than expected while the Fed keeps rates higher for longer due to
upside inflation risks as seen already in the latest US Flash PMIs.

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price yesterday broke below the minor upward trendline and extended the fall as more sellers started to pile in. We have a strong support zone around the 1.1270 level where we can find also the confluence with another trendline. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.10 handle next.

Starting from next week, we have lots of key events for the USD including the release of the ISM PMIs, the NFP and the CPI, which will culminate into the FOMC decision on June 18th.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

That’s a modest improvement as trade tensions have also eased since last month, with better developments for the global economy following a thaw in the US-China conflict especially.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 4k
• Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected
• Prior 6.3%

German unemployment was seen a little higher than expected in May but the jobless rate remains unchanged compared to April at least. The labour office noted that “the market is not getting the tailwind it needs for a trend reversal”. Adding that they expect unemployment figures to rise further in the summer.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -0.1%

The details are less encouraging with household consumption actually falling by 0.2% during the quarter. Overall, that led to domestic demand making a negative contribution of 0.1% in Q1, following a 0.2% positive contribution in Q4 last year. The overall GDP increase was led by inventory changes instead (+1.0%), offset by net foreign trade (-0.8%).

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.