Articles

TL; DR summary:

• New Zealand GDP rebounded more than expected in Q3

• Production-based GDP rose 1.1% q/q vs 0.9% forecast

• Expenditure-based GDP up 1.3% q/q, also beating estimates
• Annual-average growth remains negative

  NZD reaction modest, reflecting backward-looking nature of data

The investingLive economic calendar gives both the expected and priors if you’d like to keep track:

More detail:

New Zealand’s economy recorded a stronger-than-expected rebound in the September quarter, with official data showing solid gains across both production- and expenditure-based measures.

The quarterly bounce points to a period of improving activity momentum after earlier weakness, likely supported by resilient household spending and a stabilisation in domestic demand conditions through late winter. However, the broader picture remains more mixed. On an annual-average basis, production-based GDP was still down 0.5% in Q3 from a year earlier (i.e. Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024), underscoring that the economy has yet to fully recover from the earlier downturn.

Market reaction was muted. The New Zealand dollar briefly ticked higher following the release, with NZD/USD popping only a handful of points before settling back, reflecting limited conviction that the data materially alters the near-term macro or policy outlook.

That restrained response highlights an important caveat around GDP data: it is inherently backward-looking. Today’s release largely captures economic conditions from several months ago, before more recent shifts in financial conditions, global growth dynamics, and evolving monetary-policy expectations. In a fast-moving environment, quarterly GDP tends to confirm what has already happened rather than signal what is happening now.

GDP also remains prone to revisions, sometimes meaningful ones, which can further temper its value as a real-time guide for investors or policymakers. As such, while the Q3 upside surprise adds context around New Zealand’s recent growth trajectory, markets are likely to place greater weight on higher-frequency indicators — particularly inflation, labour-market data, business surveys and financial-conditions metrics — when assessing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next move.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• End of Day Summary: Tech Rout Batters S&P 500 and Nasdaq
• Silver Price Analysis: XAGUSD Hits Record Highs (Up 130% in 2025)
• The US treasury sells $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.798%
• What if the chart of US oil production is wrong?
• Oracle is getting crushed again and is down nearly 50% since September
• EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -1274K vs -1066K expected
• China won’t need ASML’s chip-building machines for long
• Funny how none of the Fed candidates are talking about the one-off drop in oil prices
• Fed’s Waller: Jobs market is very soft, current payrolls growth not good
• investingLive European FX markets wrap: UK inflation cools just before BOE decision
• USDINR Technical Analysis: RBI intervenes to stop the Rupee selloff. Another failed try?
• Eurozone November final CPI +2.1% vs +2.2% y/y prelim

Key Takeaways for markets today

• USD/JPY Rally: The Yen was the biggest mover vs the USD, pushing USD/JPY up +0.65% to 155.71. The BOJ will announce its interest rate decision on Friday.

• Sterling Slump: GBP/USD fell -0.34% to 1.3375 after softer-than-expected UK inflation data cemented bets for a BoE rate cut tomorrow.

• Commodity Strength: Silver surged it is up 4.34% and Oil rallied +2.92%, while Gold posted a gain of 1%

USDJPY: The Big Mover

The Japanese Yen struggled significantly today, finishing as the worst of the major currencies against the dollar. The pair rallied +0.65% to trade at 155.71, extending from lows of 154.52 earlier in the session.

• The Catalyst: While Machinery Orders and Exports beat expectations, Imports missed. However, the focus remained on policy. The Bank of Japan will enter interest rate decision with expectations of a 0.25% rise in the targeted rate

GBPUSD: Inflation Data Weights on the Pound

The GBPUSD came under pressure earlier in the day after UK CPI data missed expectations but rebounded most of its sharp declines. The low for the day reached 1.3312. The current price is trading at 1.3375 with a high for the day near 1.3426.. Technically, the price is ending the day back above its 200 day moving average at 1.3346 and its 100 day moving average at 1.3357.

• The Data: Headline CPI eased to 3.2% (vs. 3.5% expected), driven largely by falling food prices. Core CPI dipped -0.2% month-over-month.

• The Impact: The report solidified market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut from the Bank of England when the announcer interest rate decision tomorrow, with markets now assigning a ~99.7% chance of a cut, up from 91% pre-release.

EURUSD: Flat Ahead of the ECB

The EURUSD moved lower in sympathy with the Grecovered most of the declines in the North American session to end the day marginally lower by -0.06% .

• The Outlook: Traders appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. However, economic clouds persist as the German Ifo index hit its lowest level since May. Nevertheless expectations are for ECB’s Lagarde to reiterate the bank will remain data -dependent

USDCAD: Technical Buyers Gain Control

The USD/CAD pair rose +0.21% to 1.3783, but the technical story is the highlight.

• Chart Watch: After multiple failed attempts where sellers defended the 100-hour moving average, buyers finally broke above this key resistance level today. The focus now shifts to whether they can sustain this momentum toward the 1.3800 level (200-hour MA). So far, that moving average has held resistance, putting the pair in a more neutral position above its 100 hour moving average at 1.3768, but below its 200 hour moving average at 1.300

Fed Governor Waller Signals Need for Rate Cuts Amid Soft Labor Market

Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered a bearish assessment of the current economy, specifically characterizing the jobs market as “very soft” with payroll growth that is “not good.” He argued that this labor market weakness supports the case for continued interest rate cuts, estimating that the current policy rate remains 50 to 100 basis points above the neutral level. While acknowledging that inflation sits slightly above target, Waller expressed confidence that price pressures are under control, expectations remain anchored, and inflation should decline over the next few months. He advocated for proceeding at a “moderate pace” rather than taking dramatic action, and noted that while tariffs likely did not cause the current labor weakness, he remains hopeful for a stronger economic year in 2026.

Commodities & Crypto

• Silver: The standout performer, rallying $2.70 or 4.25% at $66.44

• Oil (USOIL): Gained $1.58 and $56.85.

• Gold: Ticked higher by $42.92 or 1.0% at $4345

• Bitcoin: felt $-2066 or -2.35% to $85,775.

Stocks slumped led by the tech/AI/chips

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Down -243.51 points (-0.51%) to 47,870.75.

• S&P 500 (SPX): Down -78.34 points (-1.15%) to 6,721.92.

• Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): The biggest loser, falling -410.71 points (-1.78%) to 22,700.75.

• Russell 2000 (RUT): Small caps were not spared, dipping -28.72 points (-1.14%) to 2,490.58.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury sold $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of

• WI level at the time of the auction 4.799%
• Tail -0.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.5 bps
• Bid to cover 2.67X vs 6 month average of 2.65X
• Dealers 12.57 vs 6 month average of 11.0%
• Directs 22.24% vs 6 month average of 25.3%
• Indirects 65.19% vs 6 month average of 63.7%

AUCTION GRADE: Given the results compared to the 6-month average, I give the auction an average grade of C. Not good. Not bad. Just average.

The 20-year Treasury bond occupies a unique and somewhat awkward position on the US yield curve compared to the “benchmark” 10-year and 30-year issues. It is often referred to by traders as an “orphan” issue.

1. The “Orphan” Status

Unlike the 10-year note (the global benchmark for risk-free rates) and the 30-year bond (the primary instrument for long-duration pension hedging), the 20-year bond lacks a natural, dedicated buyer base.

• 10-Year Role: Used by everyone—mortgage lenders, corporate bond pricers, and foreign central banks—as the primary reference point for the US economy.

• 30-Year Role: heavily favored by pension funds and insurance companies who need “long duration” assets to match their long-term liabilities (like payouts due in 30+ years).

• 20-Year Role: It falls in a “no man’s land.” It is too long for tactical traders who prefer the 10-year, but not “long enough” for pension funds who prefer the convexity and duration of the 30-year.

2. The Yield Anomaly (The 20s-30s Inversion)

Because of this “orphan” status, the 20-year bond typically trades with a liquidity premium, meaning investors demand a higher yield to hold it because it is harder to sell than a 10-year or 30-year bond.

This often results in a “kink” in the yield curve where the 20-year yield is near or even inverted to the 30-year yield.

This phenomenon occurs because demand for the 30-year is structurally higher (due to pensions), pushing its price up and its yield down, while the 20-year languishes with less demand, keeping its price lower and yield higher.

3. Liquidity and Trading

• Volume: The 20-year bond sees significantly less trading volume than the 10-year and 30-year issues.

• Volatility: Due to lower liquidity, the 20-year yield can be more volatile and prone to erratic moves during market stress compared to its neighbors.

Overview: The Auction Process

The US Department of the Treasury sells bills, notes, and bonds to finance the US government’s debt. These auctions are closely watched by traders (Forex, Equities, and Bond traders alike) because they provide a direct read on the demand for US assets and the direction of interest rates.

When the auction results are released, the market immediately compares the actual data against the “Pre-Auction” expectations.

Key Metrics for Auctions of US Treasuries.: A Bulleted Review

1. The WI Level (When-Issued Yield)

The “When-Issued” market is essentially a futures market for the Treasury security that is about to be auctioned. It trades in the days leading up to the auction and right up until the auction deadline.

• The Benchmark: The WI yield at the exact time of the auction bidding deadline (1:00 PM ET) is the “expected” price.

• The “Stop” (High Yield): This is the actual highest yield accepted by the Treasury to sell the entire auction amount.

• The Tail: If the Auction Stop yield is higher than the WI yield, it is called a “Tail.” This is bearish (bad demand) because the Treasury had to offer a cheaper price (higher yield) than the market expected to get the deal done.

• Stop-Through: If the Auction Stop yield is lower than the WI yield, it is a “Stop-Through.” This is bullish (strong demand) because buyers were willing to accept a lower yield than expected to secure the paper.

2. Bid-to-Cover Ratio

This is the primary measure of overall demand depth. It is calculated by dividing the total dollar amount of bids received by the amount of debt being sold.

• Measurement: A ratio of 2.5 means there was $2.50 of demand for every $1.00 of debt sold.

• Interpretation: A higher number indicates stronger demand. Traders usually compare today’s Bid-to-Cover against the “Six-Month Average” or the previous ten auctions to see if demand is rising or falling.

3. Indirect Bidders

These are buyers who place bids through a primary dealer rather than directly with the Treasury.

• Who they are: This category is heavily dominated by Foreign Central Banks (via the Fed) and international investors.

• Significance: This is widely viewed as a proxy for Foreign Demand. A strong Indirect number (e.g., 65% or higher) suggests that foreign entities remain confident in the US Dollar and US debt, which is generally supportive of the USD.

4. Direct Bidders

These are non-primary dealer institutions that place bids directly with the Treasury.

• Who they are: Domestic money managers, hedge funds, pension funds, insurers, and occasionally individuals.

• Significance: This is a proxy for Domestic Demand. If the Direct bid percentage rises, it often signals that US-based investment funds see value in the current yield levels.

5. Dealers (Primary Dealers)

Primary Dealers are large banks (like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, etc.) that are obligated to bid in Treasury auctions to ensure the debt gets sold.

• Role: They act as the “backstop.” They buy whatever the Indirect and Direct bidders do not.

• Interpretation: You generally want to see the Dealer award be low.

  • Low Dealer Award (e.g., <15%): Bullish. Real investors bought the debt, leaving the banks with very little “inventory” they have to sell later.

  • High Dealer Award (e.g., >25%): Bearish. Real investors didn’t show up, forcing the banks to absorb the supply. This creates “indigestion” because dealers will immediately try to sell that debt into the secondary market, pushing yields up.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It’s a tough time of year to try and make sense of market moves but I suspect we’re seeing profit taking and position squaring into year end. Some of the high-flying power-generation stocks are getting beaten up today and Oracle continues to crater. We also saw Tesla hitting all-time highs this week, which I suspect was at least partially due to short covering.

Nvidia, Google and Broadcom are all among the worst performers in the S&P 500 as well.

The S&P 500 is down 0.5% while the Nasdaq is down 0.8% in another sign of where the selling is coming from.

In terms of the short-covering angle, some of the best performers are Moderna, Service Now and Chipotle, all laggards this year.

So overall, I wouldn’t try to put any kind of macro or bigger stock market theme into the price action. I do suspect there is some real angst about AI and that could lead to some heavier tech selling at the turn of the year. For now though, this is flows not fundamentals.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -1812K
• Gasoline +4808K vs +2062K exp
• Distillates +1712K vs +1178K exp

There was a huge draw in the private data released yesterday, so ‘expectations’ were for something more-bullish than the consensus.

• Crude -9300K
• Gasoline -4800K
• Distillates +2500K

As a result, we’re getting some selling pressure on oil after the data. This is an unusually large divergence.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The machine shown in this picture is probably the most-important one in the world. It’s from Dutch company ASML and it’s used to fabricate the most-precise computer chips.

Last year, the US began restricting their use and export into China.

Naturally, that caused some panic in Beijing and the country’s resources were marshalled at building a replacement. A report today from Reuters says they have at least partially succeeded. Citing sources, the report says researchers created a working prototype, not just now but in “early 2025” though it’s still undergoing testing and hasn’t produced a working chip.

That sounds a bit dubious but they’re extremely complicated machines. China’s aim is to produce its own chips by 2028.

If that’s the case, the US will then lose whatever moat it has in chips. The question is whether the US can be so far ahead in AI at that point that it won’t matter.

As for the market reaction, shares of ASML dipped on the headlines but it appears as though the market had largely priced in this development already.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fed Chair candidates are falling over themselves to explain how inflation really isn’t 2.8% y/y, as it was in the most-recent PCE report. They’re stripping out rent and portfolio management fees and tariffs to say that inflation is basically on target.

“Tariffs are not a source of persistent inflation,” candidate Chris Waller said today.

This is clearly an attempt to make the appropriate dovish talking points to please Trump. Now whether that charade continues after they actually get the job is anyone’s guess but time will tell.

Of course, the one-off factors swing both ways and that’s something they’re completely ignoring. WTI crude oil is down 23% year-to-date. That’s a big drag on inflation that will continue for a while as lower crude prices filter through.

But it won’t continue forever. If you’re watching oil company budgets this month, they’re being trimmed. No one is making money at $55 WTI and that’s going to do what low oil prices always do — cure low prices. Global oil demand continues to rise and the OPEC excess production will be trimmed and oil prices will inevitably rise again.

Of course, when crude prices do go up again, the same trio of Fed candidates will be ultra-quick to exclude energy costs in the PCE calculation. That won’t be a good look.

Ultimately though, the scorecard is what happens on inflation. We’ve just gone through a period of high prices that were a reminder to everyone of the costs. They were extremely disruptive and led to the topping of virtually every elected Western government; it also eroded faith in money and central banks. Still, it’s largely seen as a pandemic one-off. A repeat would be exponentially-more damaging and would risk unmooring inflation expectations for a generation.

In addition, there are other bubbles that are being formed by inflation that will take many years to unwind.

The Fed is traditionally the thought-leader of global central banks but it’s not clear there are enough people left to fight off inflation. We are also dealing with the breakdown of the global trading system and disruption of AI. How that impacts jobs, inflation and the economy is hard to predict but one thing that everyone in the economy should be able to rely on is sound money.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• UK November CPI +3.2% v +3.5% y/y expected
• British Pound drops across the board as UK inflation surprises to the downside
• GBP/USD on the rocks after softer UK inflation data today
• UK FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: Soft UK CPI boosts the stock market, BoE rate cut bets
• Japan bond yields continue to surge higher with eyes on the BOJ later this week
• BOJ should avoid premature rate hike, says ex-deputy governor
• Eurozone November final CPI +2.1% vs +2.2% y/y prelim
• Germany December Ifo business climate index 87.6 vs 88.2 expected
• After falling to a multi-year low, crude oil recovers on Venezuela, Russia sanctions news
• Japan visitor arrivals stay strong in November despite China boycott

Markets:

• USD leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 4.174%
• Gold up 0.3% to $4,317.33
• WTI crude oil up 1.9% to $56.32
• Bitcoin down 0.9% to $87,040

The key risk event of the session came early on in the form of the UK inflation report. The numbers underwhelmed on estimates, reflecting softer price pressures and that led to a drop in sterling as UK stocks rallied.

Both the headline and core readings came in below expectations, with the details revealing a modest drop in food prices and core goods prices. The latter likely owes to heavy discounts on Black Friday sales but still, it’s enough to be quite a contrast to what we saw in November last year at least.

That being said, services inflation remains a sticking point as it continues to rest comfortably above 4%. The trend there is what will matter most for the BOE in the months ahead, so we’ll have to wait and see.

In any case, market players took to the report in solidifying expectations for a BOE rate cut tomorrow with perhaps quicker intentions for another to follow that up next year.

Prior to the UK inflation report, the next full 25 bps rate cut was priced in for July 2026. Now, that is bumped forward to April 2026. But looking out from now to the end of next year, there is ~69 bps of rate cuts priced in and that is not much changed from ~67 bps of rate cuts before the data. As such, that might put a floor on how much the pound might drop in the aftermath to all this.

GBP/USD fell from 1.3370 to 1.3311 before recovering a little to 1.3337 currently. The UK FTSE is putting in a solid shift in being up 1.5% on the day for now.

Besides that, the dollar was generally firmer in the major currencies space. EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.1715 with price action locked in between large option expiries at 1.1700 and 1.1750 on the day. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is seen higher by 0.5% to 155.50 levels as we see a solid rebound from below 155.00 yesterday.

In the equities space, European indices are keeping steadier and not all too much changed besides UK stocks. The DAX is flat while the CAC 40 is down 0.1%, so that’s not leaving much to work with. That despite US futures holding slight gains ahead of the open later. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% on the day after a slow start earlier.

As for commodities, silver is continuing its hot streak with over 3% gains again today in a push to retest $66 earlier on. We’re seeing price keep around $65.85 for now, with the bullish run still sticking in December. Meanwhile, gold is also holding higher with 0.3% gains to $4,317 on the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +2.1%
• Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.4%

The important point of the release is that core annual inflation is seen steady at 2.4%, unchanged from October. The main sticking point in terms of inflation pressures is still Germany and that represents a headache for the ECB, with it being the region’s largest economy. As such, they are forced to stay on the sidelines until pressures there moderate further.

At the same time, we did get the euro area wages and labour costs data for Q3. The former is seen at +3.0% year-on-year with the latter at +3.3% year-on-year. But as a reminder, negotiated wages in the euro area was seen at 1.87% in Q3 and that is down from 3.95% in Q2.

In any case, all of this just serves to reinforce the narrative that the ECB will remain on the sidelines for the time being. That at least until there is some meaningful change to the economic landscape, especially in Germany on inflation, as we look to next year.

EUR/USD continues to trade at 1.1717 in European morning trade, down 0.3% on the day. The pair continues to be boxed in by large option expiries at 1.1700 and 1.1750 with little conviction to go running before we get to US trading later.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 88.1; revised to 88.0
• Current conditions index 85.6 vs 85.8 expected
• Prior 85.6
• Expectations index 89.7 vs 90.5 expected
• Prior 90.6; revised to 90.5

The headline reading is softer than estimated with the current conditions and expectations index also missing on estimates. The decline in German business sentiment towards the end of the year puts a dent on the recent optimism surrounding economic expectations, with the headline estimate being the softest since May.

That being said, there is still hopeful optimism looking to next year amid more expansive fiscal policies. So, there is that.

In any case, all of this will not do much to change the ECB outlook for the time being. The central bank is still well expected to keep key interest rates unchanged this week and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future in the early stages of 2026.

As things stand, market players are not expecting much of anything from the central bank. That especially since the euro area economy remains relatively fragile and vulnerable, while sticky inflation in Germany especially continues to prove difficult to tackle and allow for flexibility in terms of easing monetary policy further.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1717 currently, down around 0.3% on the day. The low earlier touched 1.1704 with the dollar keeping firmer across the board in European morning trade thus far. But in the case of EUR/USD, we do have large option expiries at 1.1700 and 1.1750 keeping things in check and placing a bit of a bookend to price action before we get to US trading later.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

That figure is 10.4% higher year-on-year, with visitors from China even showing a marginal growth of 3% in November. For some context, the year-to-date visitor arrivals for Japan has breached 39 million in 2025 – well exceeding the total for 2024 already, which was 36.87 million.

As a reminder, China and Japan are engaged in a diplomatic altercation at the moment. That came about after Japan prime minister Takaichi made remarks about Japan intervening militarily if China does decide to engage to seize Taiwan.

Naturally, that didn’t go down well with Beijing as you would expect. And that resulted in China calling for a travel advisory warning for citizens to not to travel to Japan. So far, the impact seems rather muted in November. So, we’ll have to see how things go in December and January (best time for snow visits) to be more certain of any major impact.

As added context, mainland Chinese tourists have made up the largest group of visitors to Japan so far this year, accounting for almost a quarter of the total visitors.

And yesterday, China continues to reaffirm that they want Takaichi to retract her comments. The message from Beijing was that:

“On key issues, Japan is still ‘squeezing toothpaste’ and ‘burying nails,’ attempting to obfuscate and muddle through.”

That as China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, reiterated that Beijing continues to “firmly oppose” to the remarks from Tokyo over the whole debacle thus far.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +3.6%
• Core CPI +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expected
• Prior +3.4%

That is an unexpected miss, especially on the core estimate which is the lowest since January. This will just solidify a rate cut by the BOE for this week but also put pressure on perhaps more rate cuts to come if the central bank can start to sell the narrative of a disinflation path going into next year. The pound has stumbled with GBP/USD falling by 0.6% to 1.3345 on the day from 1.3377 just before.

Looking at the breakdown, the big drop stems from food price inflation which fell from 4.9% in October to 4.2% in November. Besides that, goods inflation also eased lower from 2.6% to 2.1% with Black Friday discounts resulting in a decline in clothing and footwear prices of 0.3% on the month and 0.6% year-on-year. Compared to the same month last year, November 2024 saw a rise of 0.6% in clothing and footwear prices on a monthly basis. So, there is perhaps some greater influence in Black Friday discounts this time around in dragging prices lower.

As for services inflation, it is seen declining marginally from 4.6% to 4.5% in November. So, that is still one key sticking point for the BOE in trying to convince of a strong disinflation narrative in the UK economy.

At the balance, there is some good news in the sense that price pressures are easing and starting to show further signs of softening. That especially after months of not showing much progress.

However, unless services inflation also starts moderating more meaningfully, the BOE might still find it tough to push a strong narrative for further rate cuts next year. For now at least, they can comfortably stick to the one this week. But looking out to next year, it will require months of a similar trend in inflation data to support their case.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.