Articles

• US major indices have a solid start to the holiday shortened week
• NZDUSD moves lower ahead of the RBNZ rate decision
• Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, May 28 2025: RBNZ rate cut expected, &2 Fed speakers
• Russia’s Medvedev on Trumps comment that Putin is playing w/fire…
• Crude oil future settle at $60.89 down -$0.64 or -1.04%
• Senator Lummis. Bill to buy $1M bitcoin hits senate floor next week
• Air raid sirens are going off in Kiev
• US treasury auctions off $69 billion of two-year notes 3.955%
• SNB’s Schlegel: In the coming months we cannot rule out negative inflation in Switzerland
• ECB Lane: No one is talking about dramatic rate cuts
• German DAX closes at a record level.
• Trump: Putin is playing with fire.
• Technology leads the charge: Tesla electrifies, Nvidia surges
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 2.2% vs 2.4% last
• US consumer confidence for May 98.0 versus 87.0 estimate.
• Feds Barkin: Data shows economy on same trajectory as last year or two
• Case Shiller monthly home price data for March -0.1% versus 0.3% estimate
• Geopolitics: Trump could impose new Russian sanction in coming days
• US durable goods for April -6.3% versus -7.8% estimate
• White House economic advisor Hassett: There could be more deals this week. Up to Trump.
• The USD is higher as traders come back from the holidays in the UK and US yesterday
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Good day for USD, bad day for JPY

The USD moved higher on risk-on sentiment which saw stocks in the US move solidly higher to start the holiday-shortened week.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average rose 740.58 points or 1.78% at 42343.65. At session lows the index was up 245.97 points.
• S&P index rose 118.72 points or 2.05% at 5921.54. At session lows the index rose was up 51.25 points
• NASDAQ index rose 461.96 points or 2.47% at 19199.16. At session lows the index was up 224.48 points

The S&P index is now positive on the year by 0.68%. The NASDAQ index is still modestly lower by -0.58%. The Dow industrial average is down -0.47% for 2025.

In the US debt market yields moved lower with the long end outperforming:

• 2-year yield 3.980%, -0.6 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.035%, -4.1 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.443%, -6.7 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.950%, -8.7 basis points.

Yields moved lower on the day, despite a strong rebound in consumer sentiment, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rising to 98, well above both the 87 estimate and last month’s 85.7 reading. However, other economic data painted a more mixed picture.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a modest decline of -0.1%, falling short of the +0.3% forecast. Meanwhile, durable goods orders (advance) dropped -6.3%, which was better than expectations of a -7.8% decline. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.2%, reflecting the outsized impact of large-ticket transportation items.

Notably, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft—a key proxy for business investment—fell -1.3%, sharply below the -0.1% estimate. This decline underscores growing caution among businesses, likely driven by uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy.

Fed’s Barkin spoke today and described the U.S. economy as remaining on a similar path as the past couple of years, with low unemployment and inflation gradually easing toward target. He noted that businesses are cautious, citing hiring freezes and delayed investment, though he doesn’t see evidence of outright cancellations. Barkin emphasized business sentiment as a key forward-looking indicator.

On the consumer side, he pointed out that although inflation expectations are weighing on sentiment, real-time data does not yet show a drop in spending. He also mentioned that government spending cuts are starting to impact employment, particularly in the D.C. area.

Regarding Trump’s tariff policies, Barkin said the effects on inflation and employment appear balanced so far. Businesses are responding in two ways—stockpiling inventories or cutting imports—but it’s too early to assess the full economic impact.

Overall tone: Cautiously neutral, with a wait-and-see approach to how businesses and consumers react to evolving inflation and policy changes.

Looking at the US dollar, the greenback was higher vs the major currencies today, led by a 1% gain vs the JPY. The USDJPY is closing above the 200-hour MA at 144.077 (at 144.346).

The EURUSD is closing below its 100 hour MA at 1.1344 but short of the 50% midpoint of the range since the April high. That level comes in at 1.1318. Teh current price comes in at 1.1326.

The GBPUSD is lower and is testing its 100 hour MA at 1.3497 going into the new trading day. That will be a key barometer in the new trading day. Staying above is more bullish. Moving below, increases the sellers bias.

The RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the new trading day. The 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 200 hour MA are all converged near 0.5935. The current price is at 0.5942. That cluster will be the key barometer for buyers and sellers in the new trading day.

Good fortune with your trading.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Premier Li Qiang was speaking at the ASEAN – Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) – China Economic Forum official dinner on
the sidelines of the 46th Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Notably, Li said that

• fiscal outlays in China will reach a record high this year

• the government is directing more policy resources towards consumption to
  boost demand

Li had some comments on Trump’s trade war:

• “Facing rising protectionism and unilateralism in some places of
  the world, we must be committed to expanding opening up and removing
  barriers”
• “Economic
  globalisation is currently experiencing an unprecedented major
  impact”
• Li urges upholding a multilateral
  trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core

• said China’s economy has continued to recover and improve since the
  beginning of the year, and that Chinese exports have remained
  “resilient despite external pressure”.

Info via Reuters report ICYMI.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal (gated):

• U.S. to Grant Chevron License to Preserve Oil Assets in Venezuela
• Company would be able to maintain key infrastructure but be barred from importing oil from the South American country

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices started the holiday-shortened week with solid gains on the back of risk-on sentiment following the latest tariff US concession on EU tariffs.

Recall on Friday, Trump “recommended” 50% tariffs on EU goods starting June 1, as well as 25% tariffs on Apple products not manufactured in the US. That sent stocks lower.

Over the weekend, Trump gave a reprieve to July 9th after speaking with the EU Commission President. With the markets closed on Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday, the delayed reaction was postponed to today.

The major indices all gapped higher, with the NASDAQ index the leading gainer. Both the S&P index and the NASDAQ rose index over 2%.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average rose 740.58 points or 1.78% at 42343.65. At session lows the index was up 245.97 points.
• S&P index rose 118.72 points or 2.05% at 5921.54. At session lows the index rose was up 51.25 points
• NASDAQ index rose 461.96 points or 2.47% at 19199.16. At session lows the index was up 224.48 points

The S&P index is now positive on the year by 0.68%. The NASDAQ index is still modestly lower by -0.58%. The Dow industrial average is down -0.47% for 2025.

Looking at some of the large-cap stocks, Tesla was a big gainer with a rise of 6.9%. Southwest Airlines which enacted baggage fees for the first time rose by 5.53%. Other airlines also benefited, with United Airlines up 4.73%, and American Airlines up 4.02%. Winners today included:

• Tesla (TSLA): +6.90% to $362.75

• GameStop Corp (GME): +6.02% to $35.02

• Stellantis NV (STLA): +5.92% to $10.48

• Block (XYZ): +5.81% to $62.15

• Southwest Airlines (LUV): +5.53% to $32.66

• Arm Holdings (ARM): +5.33% to $133.96

• Shopify Inc (SHOP): +5.15% to $106.74

• Papa John’s (PZZA): +4.88% to $44.31

• Ethereum (ETH/USD): +4.65% to $2,686.91

• United Airlines Holdings (UAL): +4.73% to $78.18

• Robinhood Markets (HOOD): +4.52% to $66.03

• Intuit (INTU): +4.42% to $751.96

• American Airlines (AAL): +4.02% to $11.64

Shares of Nvidia rose 3.21% ahead of earnings after the close tomorrow.

• Microsoft was 2.33%
• Meta rose 2.43%
• Apple rose 2.53%
• Alphabet rose 2.63%
• Amazon rose 2.50%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs expects the inflationary impact of the latest U.S. tariffs to be temporary, with core PCE inflation forecast to rise to 3.6% by the end of 2025 before easing in 2026.

Info via a note by economists:

• bank argues that unlike the 2021–2022 inflation surge, today’s weaker economy—with a looser labour market and slowing wage growth—makes a sustained price spike less likely

Although recent CPI data has shown cooling inflation, Goldman acknowledges the risk that if tariffs escalate or reach “prohibitive” levels, inflation could remain elevated. Still, economists at the bank see these pressures fading by August, potentially opening the door for the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts later this year. With the Fed holding rates steady and inflation still above its 2% target, Goldman’s outlook hinges on tariffs remaining a one-off shock rather than a prolonged trend.

Anybody remember ‘transitory’?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Russia’s Medvedev on Trumps comment that Putin is playing with fire….

“I only know of one really bad thing- WWIII”

Let’s hope not, but two leaders are starting to shove each other. Trump with his words. Putin with his continuous bombing of Ukraine.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $60.89 down -$0.64 or -1.04%.

Technically, the price attempted multiple times to break above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, but each effort lacked follow-through, and upside momentum quickly faded. The failure to hold above those key resistance levels led to a pullback, with price falling to a low of $60.29. On the downside, the next key support levels are the May 15 low at $60.12 and the May 23 low at $60.00. A break below these levels would strengthen the bearish bias and open the door for further downside pressure.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The crazy, aggressiveness from Russia’s Putin continues. Air raid sirens are blaring in Kiev as a threat ballistic missile strike. This is according to the Kiev Post.

Pres. Trump has been increasingly more critical of Russias Putin, threatening additional sanctions, and added a warning that Putin is playing with fire.

Putin seems to be unfazed by the threats and is pushing harder.

This is not a good thing… if it continues unabated as Putin pushes for retaliation.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• High yield 3.955%
• WI level at the time of the auction 3.965%.
• Tail -1.0 basis points versus six-month average of -0.4 basis points.
• Bid to cover 2.57X vs average of 2.65X
• Directs 26.2% versus six-month average of 16.4%
• Indirects 63.3% versus six-month average of 72.7%
• Dealers 10.5% versus six-month average of 10.9%

Auction Grade: B-

Positive Factors:

• High Yield vs. WI (When-Issued):
  The high yield came in 3.955%, which is 1.0 basis point better than the WI level of 3.965%. That’s a negative tail (i.e., the yield was lower than expected), and better than the 6-month average tail of -0.4 bps.
  ✅ Positive signal of stronger-than-expected demand.

• Direct Bidders:
  Awarded 26.2%, significantly above the six-month average of 16.4%.
  ✅ Shows strong appetite from domestic buyers, often viewed as “real money” participants.

Neutral to Slightly Negative Factors:

• Bid-to-Cover Ratio:
  Came in at 2.57x, below the 6-month average of 2.65x.
  ❌ Suggests slightly weaker overall demand in terms of total bids per amount offered.

• Indirect Bidders (Foreign/Central Banks):
  Awarded 63.3%, lower than the 72.7% average.
  ❌ Could point to weaker foreign demand

• Dealer Takedown:
  10.5%, close to the 10.9% average.
  ⚖️ Roughly in line, not a major driver either way.

Why not higher than a B?

While the strong tail and direct bidder interest are definite positives, the lower bid-to-cover and drop in indirect interest indicate a less broad-based appeal. For an “A” auction, we’d expect above-average demand across all major bidder categories and a strong bid-to-cover.

Conclusion:
Strong pricing and healthy direct interest, but only modest demand overall—a B-

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major European indices are closing mostly higher. France’s CAC is marginally lower.

The German DAX leading the way with a gain of 0.83% and closing at a new all-time record high..

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German Dax rose 198.84 points or 0.83% at 24226.50.
• France’s CAC -1.34.points or -0.02% at 7826.80.
• UK’s FTSE 100 rose 60.10 points or +0.69% at 8778.06.
• Stan’s Ibex rose 18.32 points or 0.13% at 14239.91
• Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 136.42 points or 0.34% at 40124.89.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.