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Japanese data is the focus of the calendar. The trade and machine orders info we’ll get today are not top-tier data, but its all goes into the mix.

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The trade data is expected to be encouraging, showing strength in November better than that in October for both exports and imports.

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Japan core machine orders data for October 2025 is due today. These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It’s a volatile data set.

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The Bank of Japan will begin its two day meeting tomorrow, Thursday, December 18, 2025. On Friday we’ll get the statement followed by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference

• the statement is expected some time in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window (this is 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time). The BoJ do not have a set scheduled time for the release
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference will follow at 0630 GMT (this is 0130 US Eastern time)

A 25bp interest rate rise is widely expected, from 0.5% to 0.75%

The snapshot shown is from the investingLive economic data calendar.

• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

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ps. You’ll note that I have stretched out the pic of the clandar a little to show that ther is top-tier data due today, but it’ss be during the Europe/UK time zone. UK inflation data is expected top have remained elevated in November.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• US November non-farm payrolls +64K vs +50K expected
• US Retail sales for October rises by 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate
• S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI December 51.8 versus 52.0 estimate
• Fed’s Bostic warns against too much monetary policy easing
• New Zealand consumer confidence jumps in the fourth quarter
• Hassett jumps back into the lead as the betting favorite for the Fed job
• BOC Macklem: Policy rate is about right to keep inflation close to 2%.
• Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow forecast 3.5% vs 3.6% previously
• US business inventories for September 0.2% versus 0.1% estimate
• WH economic advisor Hassett: There is plenty of room to cut rates

Markets:

• Gold up $8 to $4309
• US 10-year yields down 3.3 bps to 4.15%
• WTI crude down $1.58 to $55.11
• S&P 500 flat
• GBP leads, AUD lags

It was an unusual non-farm payrolls report as it combined October and November for the headline but only November for the unemployment rate. The latter ended up being the most-noteworthy part of the report as it rose to 4.6% from 4.4%, leading to an initial dovish reaction in markets. The odds of a March cut are now up to 58% from 40% before the data.

The initial market reaction was in that direction as well as the euro and yen hit session highs but it had less staying power. For one, stocks sold off and that caused some USD buying. We’re also in the end-of-year period where moves are tough to pin down. One concerning note was the BofA fund manager survey that showed cash allocations at all-time lows (the survey dates to 1999).

After some heavy selling in stocks, there was a late-day rebound led by the Nasdaq and Tesla in particular. The company hit an all-time high for the first time this year and the Nasdaq turned positive late.

On the flipside was oil, with crude prices breaking the Liberation Day low of $55.12 and breaking into the lower half of the $50s briefly. There wasn’t much of a bounce from there as the market is fearful of oversupply and a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. The drop in crude prices is certainly welcome news to central bankers as it’s explicit deflation.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Consumer confidence jumps to 96.5 from 90.9 in Q3.

That’s a good sign for spending in New Zealand and highlights upside risks to rates and the kiwi.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I wrote about Comcast yesterday as it was one of the top-10 picks from Barron’s for 2026. It looks like the market is taking a closer look at the cable giant and liking what it sees.

Shares are up 4.1% and it’s the best performer on the S&P 500 in an otherwise sluggish day. Some of that is due to its classic defensive characteristics. Barron’s has shares at just 6.7x next year’s earnings.

In terms of news, the Comcast spinoff Versant debuted in very thin trading today. It includes the cable networks (CNBC, MSNBC, USA, etc.), which are its lowest-multiple assets. The shift explains the hasty CNBC logo change to start the week.

What’s left? The “New Comcast” aims to be a cleaner play on:

• Residential Broadband: High margin, high barrier to entry.

• Streaming (Peacock): Finally turning the corner on profitability.

• Theme Parks: The crown jewel (Universal Studios)

The “cord-cutting 2.0” narrative has dominated the flows, and the Fixed Wireless Access competition from T-Mobile and Verizon has put a ceiling on sentiment. The Epic Universe theme park opened in May and so far the attendance numbers have been solid.

In the bigger picture, this may be indicative of a market that’s looking for a new place to happen. There are persistent worries that the AI trade is over-crowded and we saw signs today that the broader market may be overcrowded. If we see a retrenchment or a downturn in the economy, a company like Comcast is likely to outperform.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

From the Atlanta Fed:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent
on December 16, down from 3.6 percent on December 11. After this
morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Labor
Statistics, the contributions of consumer spending and inventory
investment to third-quarter real GDP growth fell slightly to 1.84 and
0.09 percentage points, respectively.

We are starting to catch up on economic data but are still essentially flying blind so I don’t think this report is useful.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US business inventories and retail inventories ex-auto for September 2025 (old data) shows:

• Business inventories +0.2% versus 0.1% estimate
• Retail inventories ex-auto 0.0% versus 0.0% last month

Details from the Census Bureau:

• Sales: $1,947.5B in September, unchanged vs August (±0.1%), but up 3.7% YoY, pointing to steady nominal demand despite slower monthly momentum.

• Inventories: $2,670.0B at month-end, up 0.2% MoM and up 1.2% YoY, showing continued but modest inventory accumulation.

• Inventories-to-Sales Ratio: 1.37, down from 1.40 a year ago, suggesting inventories remain relatively lean versus sales, reducing near-term overhang risk.

The chart above shows the inventory to sales ratio which is moving lower but still steady. There is nothing concerning regarding the ratio numbers.

US stocks are mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.22% and the S&P index -0.11%. The NASDAQ index is up 0.13%.

US yields are lower with the two-year down -2.3 basis points, the 10 year down -2.1 basis points at 4.160%, and the 30 year down -1.4 basis points.

Business inventories play an important and sometimes underappreciated role in GDP because changes in inventories are a direct component of economic growth calculations. In the national accounts, GDP measures not just what is sold, but what is produced, and when production exceeds sales, the difference shows up as an increase in inventories, which adds to GDP for that period. Conversely, when businesses draw down inventories to meet demand, that subtracts from GDP, even if consumer spending remains solid.

For markets and policymakers, inventories often act as a swing factor in quarterly GDP. A period of inventory rebuilding can temporarily boost headline growth, while an inventory liquidation phase can weigh on GDP and mask underlying demand strength. This dynamic is especially important when assessing whether growth momentum is being driven by final demand (consumers and businesses) or by stockpiling and supply-chain adjustments.

From a forward-looking perspective, inventory levels also influence future production decisions. Elevated inventories relative to sales can lead firms to cut output, slow hiring, and reduce investment, while lean inventories often prompt higher production and restocking, supporting growth. As a result, economists and traders closely watch inventory growth and the inventories-to-sales ratio to gauge whether inventories are likely to be a tailwind or a headwind for GDP in upcoming quarters.

Earlier today, the US jobs report was mixed with the October weekend November rebounding. The retail sales report came in unchanged, but the control group which feeds into GDP, was up a strong 0.8% for the month of October.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The flash S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI data for December is out and shows weakness:

• Prior month manufacturing 52.2
• Manufacturing flash PMI 51.8 versus 52.0 estimate
• Services PMI flash 52.9 versus 54.0 estimate. Prior month 54.1..
• Composite index 53.0 versus 54.2 last month

Below is a chart of the composite PMI compared to GDP growth.

The data is all in expansion mode above the 50.0 level, but all are less than expected as well.

Details on the key components from S&P Global shows:

Employment

Employment growth softened in December, slipping to a marginal pace and the weakest since September. Manufacturing jobs improved modestly, posting the strongest gain in four months, but service-sector employment nearly stalled, recording the smallest net payroll increase since April. Firms cited cost pressures, weak demand, and economic uncertainty as constraints on hiring, though labor shortages persisted in some areas.

Future sentiment

Business expectations for the year ahead remained positive overall, but confidence deteriorated slightly and stayed below the long-run average. Companies pointed to price increases, uncertainty, and softer customer spending, often linked to tariffs and government policy concerns, as drags on sentiment. These headwinds were partially offset by hopes for lower interest rates, fiscal support, and planned investment in new products, marketing, and capacity.

Prices and inflation

Input cost inflation accelerated sharply, reaching its fastest pace since November 2022. While manufacturers saw slightly slower cost growth, inflation remained historically elevated, and services input costs surged to the steepest rate in more than three years. Tariffs and rising labor costs were the primary drivers. Higher costs fed through to selling prices, with overall price inflation rising to its highest level since July, among the strongest since the 2022 inflation surge. Manufacturers struggled to pass on costs due to competition, while service-sector price increases were the strongest since August 2022.

Inventories and supply chains

With manufacturing output holding up but new orders declining, backlogs fell, prompting factories to cut input purchases for the first time since April. Inventories of unsold goods continued to build, though at a slower pace than the record accumulation seen in October and November. Despite reduced buying, supplier delivery times lengthened significantly, among the worst delays of the past three years, partly reflecting weaker import supply conditions.

Manufacturing PMI

The US Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 from 52.2, signaling a fifth consecutive month of expansion, but at the weakest pace of that run. Production growth slowed to a three-month low, as new orders fell for the first time since December 2024. Supporting the index were faster employment growth and longer supplier delivery times, which helped offset softer demand and slower inventory accumulation.

Bottom line: the report points to slowing but still expanding activity, cooling labor momentum, and renewed inflation pressures, especially in services—keeping the Fed firmly data-dependent as growth resilience and price risks remain in tension.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence:

• The flash PMI data for December suggest that the recent
  economic growth spurt is losing momentum. Although the
  survey data point to annualized GDP expansion of about
  2.5% over the fourth quarter, growth has now slowed for
  two months. With new sales growth waning especially
  sharply in the lead up to the holiday season, economic
  activity may soften further as we head into 2026.
• The signs of weakness are also broad-based, with a nearstalling of inflows of work into the vast services economy
  accompanied by the first fall in factory orders for a year.
  While manufacturers continue to report higher output,
  lower sales point to unsustainable production levels which
  will need to be lowered unless demand revives in the
  new year. Service providers reported one of the slowest
  months for sales growth since 2023.
• Firms have also lost some confidence in the outlook and
  have restricted their hiring in December in accordance
  with the more challenging business environment. A key
  concern is rising costs, with inflation jumping sharply to
  its highest since November 2022, which fed through to
  one of the steepest increases in selling charges for the
  past three years. Higher prices are again being widely
  blamed on tariffs, with an initial impact on manufacturing
  now increasingly spilling over to services to broaden the
  affordability problem.

The EURUSD is extending to new highs on the day and extended above a swing area high at 1.1788. The current price is trading at 1.1793. See video for key levels in EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

The USDCAD isextending lower and toward a key target swing area between 1.3720 and 1.3726 . The low price of just reached 1.3731.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

WH economic advisor Kevin Hassett is speaking on CNBC and says:

• There is plenty of room to cut rates
• US rates are out of touch with the rest of the world
• on the jobs data sees a solid upward trajectory.
• Trump thinks interest rates could be lower.
• If I were there, I’d have to negotiate with the rest of the committee.
• Fed would have to see what kind of consensus could be reached.
• Thinks we can reach 3% growth and 1% inflation again
• Deficit reduction is a key to the economy to lower rates.
• We are pretty positive that the Supreme Court will rule in our favor, and if not we have backup plans.
• We have deals 232s and 301s to use as a backstop for tariffs if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs.
• If Trump has a good reason, and I agree with it, I will present it to the others at the Fed
• Need consensus based on facts, data.
• On jobs data, he is bullish on 2026
• The jobs data was colored by the governement shutdown.
• ON GDP growth, looking at supply side, need to have north of 4%
• On jobs, AI, seeing AI-trained workers have increased their productivity and wages

Earlier today, The latest US jobs and retail sales data painted a mixed picture of the economy, shaped in part by distortions from the recent government shutdown. Nonfarm payrolls showed a decline in October followed by a rebound in November, making it difficult to gauge the true trend in hiring, while the unemployment rate moved up to 4.6% from 4.4% which could be a worry but keep the Fed on the downside tilt.

On the consumer side, October retail sales were flat at the headline level, but the control group rose a solid 0.8%, pointing to firmer underlying demand that feeds directly into GDP. Together, the reports suggest moderating but still resilient economic momentum, leaving markets data-dependent and keeping the focus on whether growth can remain supported without reigniting inflation pressures.

For your guide:

• Section 301 and Section 232 are two US trade-law tools used to impose tariffs, but they serve different purposes and carry different market implications. Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 is aimed at addressing unfair foreign trade practices, such as intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, or discriminatory policies. Under Section 301, the US Trade Representative (USTR) investigates whether another country’s practices are unreasonable or burden US commerce and, if so, can impose targeted tariffs, quotas, or other trade restrictions. These measures are often country-specific and product-specific, and they tend to be used as negotiating leverage in broader trade talks.
• Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, by contrast, is grounded in national security concerns. It allows the US Department of Commerce to investigate whether imports of certain goods—such as steel, aluminum, autos, or critical supply-chain items—threaten national security. If a risk is found, the president can impose tariffs or quotas regardless of country, making Section 232 actions broader and more structural. Markets typically view Section 232 tariffs as more persistent and harder to unwind, since they are justified on security grounds rather than trade imbalances.

For traders and markets, Section 301 tariffs are often seen as tactical and negotiable, while Section 232 tariffs are viewed as strategic and long-lasting. Both can affect inflation, supply chains, corporate margins, currencies, and risk sentiment, but Section 232 actions generally

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Retail Sales data for the month of October 2025

• Prior month retail sales (September) 0.2% revised to 0.1%
• Retail sales for the month of October 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate.
• Retail sales ex autos 0.4% vs 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.3% revised lower to 0.1%
• Retail sales ex autos and gas 0.5% vs 0.0% last month (revised from 0.1%).
• Control group (feeds into US GDP) 0.8% vs 0.4% estimate. Last month -0.1%

Looking at some of the details from the line items:

• Motor vehicle & parts dealers: -1.6% — a notable drag on the headline, reflecting weaker auto demand.

• Furniture & home furnishings: +2.3% — strong rebound, pointing to resilience in discretionary household spending.

• Electronics & appliance stores: +0.7% — moderate improvement after prior softness.

• Building materials & garden supplies: -0.9% — continued weakness tied to softer housing-related activity.

• Food & beverage stores (groceries): +0.3% — steady essential spending.

• Health & personal care: -0.6% — pullback after strong gains in prior months.

• Clothing & accessories: +0.9% — discretionary spending improved modestly.

• Sporting goods, hobby, books: +1.9% — solid gain, supporting the idea of selective discretionary strength.

• General merchandise stores: +0.5% — steady broad-based retail activity.

• Nonstore retailers (online): +1.8% — e-commerce remained a key growth driver.

• Food services & drinking places: -0.4% — slight decline, hinting at some consumer caution on services spending.

Top gainers (month-over-month)

• Furniture & home furnishings: +2.3%

• Sporting goods, hobby, books: +1.9%

• Nonstore retailers (online): +1.8%

• Clothing & accessories: +0.9%

• Electronics & appliance stores: +0.7%

• General merchandise stores: +0.5%

• Retail sales ex-autos: +0.4%

• Food & beverage stores (groceries): +0.3%

• Retail sales ex-gas: +0.1%

Top decliners (month-over-month)

• Motor vehicle & parts dealers: -1.6%

• Building materials & garden supplies: -0.9%

• Gasoline stations: -0.8%

• Health & personal care stores: -0.6%

• Food services & drinking places: -0.4%

Unchanged

• Retail & food services (headline): 0.0%

Trader takeaway: gains were concentrated in discretionary and online spending, while autos and housing-related categories dragged, explaining the flat headline despite healthier underlying demand.

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US retail sales: What the report tells traders about the consumer and growth

Why retail sales matter

When on schedule (today’s data is from October) US retail sales offer one of the clearest, most timely reads on consumer demand, which drives roughly two-thirds of overall US economic activity. Because the data are released monthly and feed directly into GDP calculations, markets often use the report to reassess growth momentum, Fed policy expectations, and near-term direction for yields, equities, and the US dollar.

Understanding the key components

The headline retail sales figure measures overall spending but can be volatile due to autos and gasoline. For that reason, traders focus more closely on retail sales ex-autos, which provide a cleaner signal of underlying demand, and the control group (excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services), which feeds directly into GDP’s personal consumption component. A strong control group typically signals solid real economic growth, while weakness can quickly raise recession or slowdown concerns.

What the category breakdown reveals

The internal composition of the report is often as important as the headline. Strength in discretionary categories such as online sales, restaurants, and general merchandise suggests confident consumers and healthy labor income.

By contrast, weakness across multiple categories or reliance on essentials can indicate consumers are becoming more cautious, even if the headline number looks stable.

How traders use the data

For markets, strong retail sales tend to support higher Treasury yields and a firmer USD, particularly if paired with signs of rising prices or wages. Soft or slowing sales usually weigh on yields and the dollar, reinforcing expectations for Fed easing. Ultimately, traders use the report to judge whether the US consumer is powering growth, merely sustaining it, or beginning to pull back, shaping both short-term market moves and broader macro positioning.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• September was 119K
• October was -105K (just released)
• Unemployment rate 4.6% vs 4.4% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 4.4%
• Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.4% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 8.7% vs 8.0% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +3.5% y/y vs +3.6% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.2 expected
• Change in private payrolls +69K vs +45K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls -5K vs -5K expected
• Government payrolls -5K vs +22K in September

The market was pricing in a 48% chance of a March cut before the report. USD/JPY was trading at 154.65 before the data and S&P 500 futures were down 8 points.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It’s been a long wait for the return of US economic data but we are finally here with November non-farm payrolls and October retail sales due at the bottom of the hour. The jobs report is the most up-to-date and the most meaningful. I wonder if the Fed got a nod that it was going to be a poor reading and that tilted them towards cutting rates.

In any case, the consensus is +50K from +119K previously. The BLS noted that the standard errors in this report will be larger than normal because of missing data from the shutdown, so be prepared for anything. A good check will be on the unemployment rate, which is projected to stay flat at 4.4%.

Retail sales are expected up 0.1% in October with the control group up 0.4%. In earnings season, companies were mostly upbeat on the consumer but there were certainly indications of K-shaped spending, with McDonald’s and Walmart highlighting the struggles of low-income consumers.

For more, see the investingLive economic calendar.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:

• Expects new Fed chair announcement in early January
• US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs also expected in early January
• Says Warsh and Hassett both very qualified for the job
• Expects substantial drop in inflation in the first half of 2026
• US-China relations remain positive

US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, spoke in a Fox Business interview and commented on the upcoming Fed chair announcement and the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. Both decisions are expected in early January.

Bessent also added that Warsh and Hassett are both “very very qualified” for the job, which further confirms that it’s going to be either one of them.

Warsh recently overtook Hassett as favorite following a CNBC report saying that “Hassett candidacy was running into pushback from people close to Trump”. Warsh is also seen as a better pick in Wall Street.

Whoever it’s going to be, the new Fed Chair will still have only one vote, and monetary policy decisions are made on a majority basis. It will just make the FedWatching job more interesting as traders will need to closely follow the voters’ views on economy and policy, and monitor the economic developments.

That could bring more volatility and trading opportunities as expectations will likely swing with every comment and economic report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.