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Bloomberg have the info on China considering trade talks.

• China Commerce Ministry says the US has taken the initiative to convey to China that the US is hoping to talk on trade

• China said to be conducting assessment on US trade negotiations
• Also wants the US to correct its tariff mistakes, says the US unilaterally initiated the tariff trade war
• China is urging the US to demonstrate sincerity if it wants trade talks
• China is evaluating possible US trade talks
• China says the door is open to trade talks with the US

China obviously acting coy, but at least this is some sign of tentative progress.

Or, perhaps not ….. more:

• In any possible dialogue, meeting, if US does not correct its ‘unilateral’ tariff measures, US has no sincerity at all
• US should show sincerity if it wants to talk

• US should be prepared to take action in correcting ‘erroneous’ practices, cancelling unilateral tariffs

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ahead of last Monday’s Canadian election Adam posted on the risk for CAD – minority government:

• There is one Canadian election outcome that could hurt the loonie

That is also a risk for this weekend’s election in Australia. Polling is currently favouring the incumbent Prime Minister Albanese, but its very close. The very real risk is Albanese wins but only in minority, just like Carney this week. He will then form government with the support of Greens and/or independents and that always risks a more open wallet and a hit to fiscal irresponsibility, what little there is.

The other near term risk is we won’t get a clear result for many days after the election.

These could provide a setback for AUD, apart from the trade storms currently underway hitting Australia’s major trading partner, China.

PM Albanese and opposition leader Dutton

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy minister Akazawa said that FX was not discussed.

• Negotiation lasted for 130 minutes

• Able to have thorough discussions

• Again requested review of tariffs on Japan

• No comment on specific negotiations

• Talked how Japan can expand trade, non-tariff measures, economic security with US

• Told US that tariff measures regrettable

• Did not discuss forex

• Want to hold next meeting after mid-May

• No discussions on national security

• Asked us to review tariff measures on auto parts

• Negotiation handled as a package

• National security matters different from tariff talks

• Did not talk about China during talks

• Already decided forex matters to be discussed between finance ministers

• Understand that US wanting to reach some kind of agreements within 90-day window with various countries

I bolded that timing comment above. This is not indicative of a quick resolution to trade talks as Trump would have us believe. Not that anyone does anyway.

—

Earlier from Japan:

• “Japan’s US Treasury holdings among tools for trade talks, Finance Minister Kato says”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Politico with the report that might have an impact on the US labour market in the weeks and months to come.

Trump’s admin asked the US Supreme Court to allow rolling back immigration protections for about 600,000 Venezuelans living in the U.S.

• the latest of about a dozen expedited requests the Trump administration has brought to the high court in the past three months
• asks to lift a court order blocking Trump’s plan to curtail or end so-called temporary protected status, or TPS, for Venezuelan nationals. People who are granted TPS get protection from deportation and are issued work permits

Advocates for the Venezuelan TPS recipients will have until May 8 to file a response.

More at that link to the report above.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan March unemployment rate 2.5%

• expected 2.4%, prior 2.4%

Jobs to applicant ratio 1.26

• expected 1.25, prior 1.24

This is the big news from Japan today, IMO:

• “Japan’s US Treasury holdings among tools for trade talks, Finance Minister Kato says”

99 problems but a job ain’t one in Japan!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea April CPI

more to come

South Korea April consumer price index +2.1% y/y (Reuters poll +2.0%)

• +0.1% m/m is better, the slowest since November 2024

Core CPI +2.1% y/y vs +1.9% in March

Copy

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand March 2025 Building Permits +9.6% m/m

• +0.8% prior
• and +15.9% y/y

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Vice President Vance: Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end any time soon.

• up to the Russians and Ukrainians now
  that each side knows what the other’s terms for peace are
• its going to be up to them to come to an agreement and stop this
  brutal, brutal conflict
• “Its not going anywhere, Bret. It’s not going to end any
  time soon,”

Vance’s comments came during a Fox News interview.

Dialling back geopolitical tension such as ending this war, was a promise Vance and his boss made, it was always a stretch.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That headline is via Reuters, recapping the bombshell remark from Kato earlier. Kato made the comments while appearing on a television program.

Kato is Japan’s Finance Minister. He said the country’s massive holdings of U.S. Treasuries could serve as a potential bargaining tool in trade negotiations with Washington — though he emphasized there’s no commitment to actually using that option.

• noted that while Japan’s main reason for holding such large reserves is to maintain sufficient liquidity for possible yen intervention, “we obviously need to put all cards on the table in negotiations. It could be among such cards.”
• he was quick to add a caveat: “Whether we actually use that card, however, is a different question.”

—

Japan holds around $1.27 trillion in foreign reserves, most of which analysts believe is in U.S. Treasury debt, though the government doesn’t publicly detail the composition.

Threatening to offload some is a big step.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Analysts at Macquarie say that even if Trump reverses all his tariffs the US dollar is unlikely to fully recover all of its recent losses.

They give three reasons :

• any capital flight from the U.S. isn’t just about foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, or public pension plans abroad selling their U.S. assets at the direction of foreign politicians

And add a fourth reason on why foreign holders need to diversify away from the dollar:

• the reduction in the integrity of some US institutions and systems

Once trust is blown, its very difficult to recover.

Macquarie conclude that the USD will become less a must hold currency and more an alternative to a few omparable choices, citing the euro as an example.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Apple announced EPS and revenues that th modestly beat expectations:

• Revenue: $95.36 billion

  • vs. estimate: $94.59 billion → BEAT

  • vs. Q2 2024: $90.75 billion → +5.1%

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.65

  • vs. estimate: $1.63 → BEAT

  • vs. Q2 2024: $1.52 → +8.6%

Revenue by Product Segment

• iPhone: $46.84 billion

  • vs. estimate: $46.17 billion → BEAT

  • YoY growth: +2.3%

  • Driven by iPhone 16e demand despite macro headwinds

• Mac: $7.95 billion

  • vs. estimate: $7.92 billion → BEAT

  • YoY growth: +10.4%

  • Boosted by M4 MacBook Air refresh

• iPad: $6.40 billion

  • vs. estimate: $6.07 billion → BEAT

  • YoY growth: +8.5%

  • Supported by new iPad Air and Pro models

• Wearables, Home & Accessories: $7.52 billion

  • vs. estimate: $7.85 billion → MISS

  • YoY decline: −1.8%

  • Soft global demand, especially for accessories

• Services: $26.65 billion

  • vs. estimate: $26.69 billion → MISS (slightly)

  • YoY growth: +17.9%

  • Strength in App Store, iCloud, and subscriptions

Geographic Performance

• Greater China: $16.0 billion

  • vs. estimate: $15.9 billion → BEAT

  • Modest growth despite local competition

Capital Return

• Dividend: Raised by 4% to $0.26/share

• Buyback: New $100 billion share repurchase authorization

Shares of Apple are trading down -2.12% after earnings

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.