IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 07 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Markets traded cautiously with no fresh macro releases, as US-Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions sustained oil above $100 (impacting Brent/WTI most), yen weakened to USDJPY ~158 amid BOJ watch (USDJPY heavily hit), and AUD fluctuated post-RBA hike; Asian stocks dipped (Hang Seng -1%), extending prior slips while AI optimism faded against geo-risks—overall, commodities and JPY pairs bore the brunt.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders face a mix of steady macroeconomic data and high-impact geopolitics: US initial jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET (exp. 218K) will test labor resilience amid Fed’s steady 3.5-3.75% rates, while US-Iran peace progress has slashed Brent crude below $100 from $120 peaks, weakening USD, lifting yen on intervention risks, and fueling equity records in tech/AI amid RBA hike ripples position for volatility in oil, forex, and risk assets as sessions open.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar remained nearly flat against major peers, with the DXY near 99.00, pressured by advancing “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz that reduced war-related safe-haven flows despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict, alongside softer US PMI revisions and steady Fed policy expectations post-April hold at 3.50-3.75%. Expectations point to range-bound trading in May, supported by resilient US data but capped by global risk sentiment and central bank divergences.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold continued its strong rebound, rising about 2.2% to approximately $4,695 per ounce after a 2.7% surge the day before. The rally was fueled by a weaker U.S. dollar, which made gold more affordable for non-U.S. investors, and by persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly around U.S.–Iran tensions and stalled peace talks, which reinforced gold’s role as a safe-haven asset

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro remained stable with EUR/USD near 1.1748 following a 0.47% gain the prior day, supported by USD weakness from soft US data and hawkish ECB outlooks, though capped by ongoing US tariff threats from President Trump and sluggish Q1 GDP growth of 0.1% in the Eurozone. No significant economic releases occurred today, keeping focus on technical levels and broader trade risks amid steady ECB rates.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is starting Thursday on a firm footing, with the currency near multi-year highs against the dollar, helped by stronger April inflation and persistent safe-haven flows. The SNB’s zero-rate stance and willingness to lean against rapid appreciation are limiting factors, but for now the market tone remains CHF-positive rather than reversal-led.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound is trading near multi‑month highs versus the dollar, supported by expectations that the Bank of England will keep its Bank Rate on hold at 3.75% and maintain a relatively hawkish‑leaning stance, while geopolitical risk in the Middle East and firmer US‑dollar conditions keep volatility elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April is detailed yet, but consensus previews anticipated a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios with inflation peaking over 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline before easing below 2% in three years, or higher at 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar remains range-bound near USD/CAD 1.36-1.37, pressured by strong US growth, Fed hawkishness, and Middle East risks favoring the USD, yet buoyed by stable oil exports and a hawkish Bank of Canada outlook; forecasts from major banks like RBC and TD predict gradual CAD strengthening later in the quarter to around 1.34-1.36.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets remain on edge following a sharp decline on May 6, where Brent crude fell around 6% to $103 per barrel, and WTI dropped nearly 7% to $95, triggered by reports of advancing U.S.-Iran peace talks that could end the war and ease supply fears from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Despite the pullback from recent highs above $114 amid Middle East strikes and restricted shipping, prices stay elevated year-over-year, with US gasoline topping $4.50/gallon

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 07 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 98.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 97.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap  resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1714

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1661

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1831

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 184.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 182.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8653

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8617
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8676
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3554

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3458
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3657
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 214.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 211.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 214.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7836

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7760
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7917
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 157.88

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 155.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                              

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.3641

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3550

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3704

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7207

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 07150

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7262

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5920

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5873

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6036

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 49,485.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,894.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,290.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,403.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,665.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,126.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 7,270.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,179.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,447.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 79,508.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 77,288.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 87,549.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 2,325.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,266.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,449.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 101.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 94.89
Supporting reasons: Identified as aa pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 110.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4631.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,510.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,767.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 7th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 5.76%, Shanghai Composite up 0.25% Hang Seng up 1.55% ASX up 0.86%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,712.26 (0.36%) Silver at $78.190 (1.16%), Brent Oil at $101.97 (0.68%), WTI Oil at $95.65 (0.60%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.353, UK 10-year yield at 4.9420, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9943

News & Data:

• (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  109K  to 118K  expected

Markets Update:

Japan’s stock market surged on Thursday, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 soaring more than 5% to cross the 62,000 mark for the first time ever, as Asia-Pacific markets rallied despite renewed tensions in the Middle East. Investor sentiment remained upbeat after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran would face bombing “at a much higher level” if it failed to agree to a peace deal.

The Nikkei rally was driven by strong gains in technology, financial and basic materials stocks. Shares of SoftBank jumped over 13%, while electronics maker Ibiden climbed 17%. Mitsui Kinzoku gained 16%, Renesas Electronics rose 13%, and Tosoh Corporation advanced 12%. Japan’s broader Topix index also gained 2.37%.

Elsewhere in the region, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.9%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.47%, while China’s CSI 300 edged 0.38% higher. However, South Korea’s Kospi reversed earlier gains to fall 0.68%, while the Kosdaq lost 0.56%.

Trump’s comments came amid reports that Washington and Tehran were close to reaching a deal to end the conflict. He also said the U.S. military campaign, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury,” could end if Iran agrees to the proposed terms, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, including Iran.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 7th May 2026: Asia Markets Rally as Nikkei Hits Record 62,000 Despite Middle East Tensions first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

US Markets Rally as Iran Reviews Peace Deal – Nasdaq up 2%

US equities extended their rally in the latest session as risk sentiment strengthened on growing optimism around a potential de-escalation in the Middle East. Reports that Iran is reviewing a fresh US proposal aimed at ending the conflict helped underpin a broad risk-on move across global markets. The major US indices all pushed sharply higher, with the Dow Jones rising 1.24% to 49,910, while the S&P 500 gained 1.46% to close at a fresh record of 7,365. The Nasdaq once again led the advance, climbing 2.02% to 25,838 and marking another record close for the technology-heavy index, helped by strong AMD earnings results. In currency markets, the US dollar softened alongside the improvement in risk appetite, with the USD index falling 0.42% to 98.03. Treasury markets also reflected the shift in sentiment, with yields moving lower across the curve. The US 2-year yield dropped 7.4 basis points to 3.866%, while the 10-year yield declined 7.5 basis points to 4.349%. Commodity markets were particularly active on the geopolitical developments. Oil prices fell sharply as risk premiums were unwound, with Brent crude sliding 7.25% to $101.90 after briefly dipping back below the $100 level during the session. WTI also came under pressure, falling 7.03% to $95.08. In contrast, gold continued to defy its traditional safe-haven role, rallying 2.92% to $4,689.05, supported in part by the weaker US dollar.

Oil Looking Vulnerable on Peace Hopes

Oil prices dropped hard in trading yesterday as peace hopes increased dramatically with news that the US has put a proposal to Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East that will see the Strait of Hormuz reopened and allow 20% of the world’s oil to flow once again. Traders are preparing for more downside moves if a deal is confirmed in the coming sessions, but there are some questions as to how far it will fall, given likely continued concerns on the longevity of the deal and how long it will take for oil flow to return to normal levels once the naval blockades are lifted. At one stage yesterday, WTI traded down as much as 13%, but then closed around 7% from its open, so the initial target for moves lower will be near yesterday’s low at $88.66 a barrel, with trendline support on the daily chart coming in just below at $87.42. Longer-term traders will be looking for prices to return to pre-conflict levels under $70 a barrel, but the path there may not be smooth after the disruptions from the last several weeks. Those wary of a breakdown in negotiations will, however, be looking for sharp moves back to the topside, with the initial target at yesterday’s high of $102.70.

Geopolitics Remain in Focus on Quiet Calendar Day

Looking ahead, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet today, leaving markets highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. With hopes building around a potential peace agreement, volatility is expected to remain elevated as investors react to any further developments. In the Asian session, attention turns briefly to New Zealand, where RBNZ Governor Anna Breman is scheduled to speak early in the day, with markets watching for any policy signals or commentary on the regional inflation outlook. There is little else on the calendar for the rest of the Asian session and indeed the European session, where mainly lower-tier releases are scheduled. However, the US session does see the release of the Weekly Unemployment Claims (exp. 205k), which will provide a timely read on labour market conditions ahead of tomorrow’s big Non-Farm Payrolls release.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 07/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was dominated by hopes of a U.S.–Iran peace deal, which lifted U.S. equity‑index futures and global stocks while pushing oil prices lower and safe‑haven yields down. Against that backdrop, slightly firmer‑than‑expected JOLTS data kept the labor market looking tight ahead of next week’s non‑farm payrolls, while the Fed remains on hold at 3.50%–3.75%, leaving the dollar and real rates range‑bound.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Oil-driven volatility from US-Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions, where recent attacks pushed Brent to $114 before pullbacks, yen intervention risks around USD/JPY 160 post-BOJ spending, and selective equity gains in AI/tech sectors across Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, amid thin liquidity from holidays; light data like Hong Kong/Indonesia GDP and Korea CPI offers limited catalysts, while RBA’s fresh rate hike to 4.35% tempers AUD expectations, demanding vigilance on Middle East headlines and FX defenses.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar showed mixed performance, holding near 99.00 on the DXY index amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, boosting safe-haven demand, though it faced pressure from hopes of a US-Iran deal resolution. Recent sessions saw the DXY dip to around 97.70-98.31, reflecting a slight depreciation after modest prior gains, with traders eyeing upcoming US labor data like ADP reports and non-farm payrolls, expected later in the week to dictate further direction.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices have shown resilience amid escalating Middle East tensions, rebounding from recent lows around $4,540 per ounce on May 4 to approximately $4,560-$4,677 by May 6, driven by safe-haven demand despite inflation fears from oil spikes and potential US-Iran clashes over the Strait of Hormuz.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintains a strong position, continuing to trade near four-year highs following a period of sustained appreciation. The currency has been bolstered by a combination of resilient domestic economic conditions and market expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy, with the AUD/USD pair recently pushing past the 0.7200 level.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
• Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
• Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
• Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
• Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
• The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
• The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

Today’s NZD story is a tug of war between global risk sentiment and domestic rate expectations. The kiwi has been holding near recent highs because markets are still pricing some RBNZ tightening later this year, but the immediate upside is capped by softer May hike expectations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen remained under pressure near USD/JPY 156-157 levels, with traders on high alert for additional interventions after a May 6 spike to 155.04 sparked speculation of official buying; Japan’s recent $34.5 billion effort and stern warnings have propped up the currency short-term, but persistent USD strength from rate differentials and geopolitics limits lasting gains.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are sharply off their recent highs, as markets pivot from Middle East‑war risk to a narrative of de‑escalation and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has retreated from intraday peaks above 114 dollars toward the low‑100s, while WTI has slid from around 106 dollars down into the low‑90s, driven by signals that the U.S.‑Iran conflict is moving toward a ceasefire‑style agreement and the lifting of naval blockades.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 07/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 06 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The intersection of high-growth technology optimism and systemic risks stemming from energy security. While semiconductor-related equities continued to benefit from robust AI demand, the broader market sentiment remained sensitive to the volatility in Brent crude prices, which hit significant highs not seen since mid-2022. The Japanese Yen continued to serve as a focal point for currency traders, with its weakness highlighting the conflict between domestic economic policy and external pressures from a high USD and geopolitical risk.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Markets are riding momentum from Tuesday’s record close for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fueled by AI chip stocks surging after Intel posted a 12% jump on Apple chipmaking talks and AMD rallied on earnings expectations, while falling oil prices (down 3%) and a holding U.S.-Iran ceasefire reduced geopolitical risk. The day’s critical data includes the JOLTS job openings report, where a weak print below the 6.8M forecast could revive rate-cut arguments as the Fed’s rate-cut window narrows, versus the EIA crude inventory report expected to show a 1.5M barrel draw that would support oil prices amid Strait of Hormuz tensions.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (12:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar remains range-bound near 98.20 on the DXY amid a slight daily uptick, pressured by yen strength from potential interventions and offset by safe-haven flows from Middle East conflicts like US-Iran tensions, which also fuel oil-driven inflation concerns limiting Fed rate cut bets. US data shows economic rebound with 2% Q1 GDP and low jobless claims, but monthly weakness persists at -1.82%, with forecasts eyeing further softening to 97.83 soon.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (12:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices showed resilience, rebounding amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly US-Iran clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, which have driven energy costs higher and heightened inflation fears. Spot gold traded around $4,560-$4,585 per ounce, up about 0.8-1.4% from recent sessions after hitting a one-month low, supported by safe-haven demand despite high interest rate pressures.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro is navigating a complex landscape defined by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. While the currency has shown resilience, trading above the $1.17 level early this month, it remains sensitive to ongoing volatility in global oil prices and shifting expectations regarding future interest rate adjustments.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc maintained its bullish momentum against major currencies like the USD (at ~0.7840) and EUR (~0.9172), fueled by safe-haven flows amid Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices, while the SNB signals readiness for interventions to cap rapid appreciation and support price stability. Forecasts suggest a short-term test of USD/CHF resistance near 0.7855 before potential declines below 0.7665, with the franc up 4.69% over the past year. No major Swiss economic data releases occurred today, keeping focus on global risk sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British Pound traded steadily around 1.35 against the USD with minor declines of 0.19%, pressured by gloomy UK economic revisions such as elevated inflation forecasts to 3.4% and subdued GDP growth at 0.5% coupled with escalating Middle East conflicts driving oil to four-year highs via US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks, as the Bank of England maintains a cautious 3.75% rate stance amid 3.3% inflation.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April is detailed yet, but consensus previews anticipated a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios with inflation peaking over 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline before easing below 2% in three years, or higher at 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news eventIvey PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (8:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is trading slightly stronger versus the US dollar, around 0.735 USD per CAD (USD/CAD near 1.360), continuing a period of range‑bound action as the loonie balances modest support from firm oil prices and resilient domestic data against headwinds from a safe-haven bid for the US dollar and cautious Bank of Canada policy.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories ( 2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Global oil markets saw continued downward momentum as positive RSI signals hinted at possible temporary stabilization or sideways trading, but the dominant bearish technicals prevailed amid OPEC+’s earlier May output increase of 206,000 barrels per day. Prices averaged around $114 recently after a 12% drop from April highs, with US producers like Diamondback Energy cutting rigs in response.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 06 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 98.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 97.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap  resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.1718

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1628

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1771

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 184.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 182.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8653

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8617
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8676
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot:1.3589

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3450
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3657
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 214.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 211.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 214.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7869

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7775
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7917
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 157.88

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 155.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                              

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.3641

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3550

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3704

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term bullish breakout  the pivot toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7207

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 07150

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7262

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Neutral

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could move sideways, fluctuating between the 1st support and 1st resistance

1st support: 0.5813

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5920

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 49,591.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 48,597.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,992.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,884.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,407.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,649.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 7,270.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,179.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,329.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 79,508.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 77,288.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 87,549.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 2,325.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,266.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,449.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 101.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 94.89
Supporting reasons: Identified as aa pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 110.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4560.42

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,510.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,672.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 6th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.38%, Shanghai Composite up 1.27% Hang Seng up 0.70% ASX up 0.87%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,654.59 (1.89%) Silver at $76.000 (3.29%), Brent Oil at $108.04 (-1.67%), WTI Oil at $100.46 (-1.75%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.398, UK 10-year yield at 5.0650, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0663

News & Data:

• (USD) ISM Services PMI 53.6  to 53.7  expected

Markets Update:

South Korea’s Kospi surged to another record high on Wednesday as Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher, following overnight gains on Wall Street driven by easing oil prices and upbeat corporate earnings.

Investor sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that diplomatic discussions surrounding the Middle East conflict were progressing. Trump announced that “Project Freedom,” the U.S. operation guiding commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, would be temporarily paused while negotiations continue.

The U.S. military had begun escorting ships through the vital waterway earlier this week after disruptions linked to tensions involving Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that two U.S. commercial ships, accompanied by American destroyers, had safely passed through the strait.

Oil prices declined as concerns over supply disruptions eased. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 1.45% to $100.79 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fell 1.40% to $108.33.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 5.56%, extending gains of more than 70% this year. Technology giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both reached record highs. China’s CSI 300 rose 0.71%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.58%. Hong Kong markets were mostly flat, and Japan remained closed for a holiday. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures also edged higher.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:15 PM GMT – USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

The post Wednesday 6th May 2026: Asia Markets Rise as Kospi Hits Record High, Oil Prices Ease Amid Hormuz Talks first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rise as Ceasefire Holds – Nasdaq up 1%
US equities rallied in the latest session as markets took confidence from a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that continues to hold, despite ongoing reports of intermittent missile strikes across the region. The improvement in risk sentiment saw the Dow Jones rise 0.73% to 49,298, the S&P 500 gain 0.81% to 7,259, and the Nasdaq outperform with a 1.03% advance to 25,326. In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields eased modestly, with the 2-year yield falling 1.2 basis points to 3.940% and the 10-year yield declining 1.4 basis points to 4.424%. In currency markets, the US dollar traded in a choppy range but ultimately finished little changed, edging just 0.02% higher to 98.48. Commodities saw some divergence on the session. Oil prices moved lower on hopes that geopolitical tensions may not escalate further, although they remain at elevated levels overall. Brent crude fell 3.56% to $110.37, while WTI declined 3.90% to $102.37. In contrast, gold prices pushed higher, rising 0.79% to $4,556.04, as underlying uncertainty continues to underpin demand for safe-haven assets.

US Jobs Data in Focus for Fundamentals this Week
Geopolitical updates have again been dominating market commentary this week, as markets swing on a daily and sometimes hourly basis depending on sentiment from the latest updates on the Middle East. However, some crucial US data could be slipping by that could have a significant effect on markets further down the track. US jobs numbers are being released throughout the week, culminating in the blue-riband Non-Farms numbers on Friday, and there are some concerns that if they come in strongly, indicating a resilient employment picture in the US, then we may be wiping the prospect of Fed rate cuts off the table. Inflation concerns have been front of mind for many in terms of Fed thinking, with the war with Iran pushing out rate cut expectations. However, if the jobs numbers combine with sticky inflation, we could see some strong moves in markets in the coming months, with yields remaining elevated and the dollar pushing higher.

Geopolitics to Dominate Trading Sessions Again Today
Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively quiet, which is likely to keep market focus firmly on geopolitical developments—particularly any updates out of the Gulf region. We have already seen some data out early in the Asian session, with New Zealand employment data coming in close to expectations: the quarterly change coming in lower than expected, but the unemployment rate also dipping by 0.1% to 5.3%, showing a slight improvement. Later in the day, the focus will remain on the Land of the Long White Cloud, with the RBNZ Governor set to speak from Wellington. The London session has very little of note on the calendar today; however, we do have another US jobs update shortly after the New York open. This time, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change numbers are due out, with the market expecting a 118k rise last month. Ivey PMI data (exp. 49.9) is due out of Canada later in the day, and we are also set to hear from several central bankers, including the Fed’s Alberto Musalem and Austan Goolsbee, as well as Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, towards the end of the day.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 06/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 06 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The March trade balance data release overshadowed by US-Iran clashes in the Hormuz Strait, propelling oil prices to multi-month highs around $113/bbl for Brent and sparking broad risk-off moves U.S. stocks dipped (S&P 500 -0.4%, Dow -1.1%), Treasury yields jumped toward cycle peaks, VIX rose 7.65%, and the USD firmed, with energy the sole equity bright spot amid looming inflation and Fed rate-cut repricing ahead of upcoming ISM Services and JOLTS data.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Renewed Middle‑East headlines out of the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to drive oil volatility and risk‑off sentiment; they should also monitor the RBA policy‑cycle narrative in AUD pairs, yen‑intervention risks at the Bank of Japan, and any tweaks in Chinese growth‑support messaging, as these macro drivers will likely dictate intraday swings in FX, energy, and regional equities.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (12:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar showed modest resilience around the 98 level, amid ongoing Middle East tensions, including the Strait of Hormuz crisis and US-Iran conflict, which continue to influence safe-haven flows and oil prices. Recent data highlighted a rebound in US Q1 GDP growth to 2% annualized, supported by 1.6% consumer spending gains and multi-decade low jobless claims, though the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.75% with internal policy divisions noted.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (12:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold today is trading with a cautious bullish bias, supported by geopolitical tension, safe-haven flows, and continued institutional demand, but capped by a firm dollar, higher yields, and technical selling pressure. In plain terms, buyers still have reasons to stay in the market, but they need a stronger breakout above nearby resistance to turn this rebound into a more convincing rally.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) saw mixed movements, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) widely expected 25 basis point rate hike to 4.35% on May 5, which marked the third consecutive increase in 2026 amid persistent inflation pressures at 4.6% headline CPI.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25-basis-point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
• Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
• January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
• The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
• Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
• Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
• Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
• Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
• Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZD/USD hovers near 0.588 amid subdued activity, pressured by USD strength from Mideast tensions and surging oil prices that fuel inflation worries, while RBNZ’s accommodative policy outlook, despite sticky 3.1% inflation, delays tightening expectations until late 2026; technicals suggest potential downside below 0.5805 if support breaks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japan’s authorities have warned against speculative selling, the market believes they may have already spent around $35 billion defending the currency, and USD/JPY is now holding in the 157 area while traders wait to see whether Tokyo acts again. The yen has found some short-term support, but the broader backdrop still favors the dollar unless Japanese officials deliver another forceful intervention or the U.S.-Japan rate gap starts narrowing.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories ( 2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets remain volatile, driven by ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran conflict, with WTI crude holding around $102-$105 per barrel and Brent near $114 after recent gains. Fuel prices are spiking globally, including sharp hikes in South Africa (petrol up R3.27/litre, diesel R6.19/litre effective today) due to sustained high crude costs and currency pressures.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 06 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 06/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.