It was a busy week again for financial markets as geopolitical updates on the Gulf continued to dominate market sentiment, while further strong earnings reports kept stock markets trading at record highs.

It is a quieter macroeconomic calendar again in the week ahead, although there is again a major focus on US data as the week progresses, with key inflation numbers due out as well as the Fed Chair Nomination Vote.

Traders will again be looking at newswires for direction for the first few sessions of the week, with the market eagerly awaiting news on whether Iran will accept the latest US proposal and whether we see a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

There is also the small matter of the planned trip for President Trump to visit President Xi in China for trade negotiations later in the week, which is also likely to see volatility hit markets as updates hit the newswires.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

Updates out of the Middle East will be the major focus for the Asian session again on Monday, with anything fresh on the peace proposal likely to lead to gapping again on the open. The main data drop for the day also comes in the Asian session, with key Chinese CPI and PPI numbers due midway through the day. There is nothing of note on the calendar for the other two trading sessions, and therefore traders are expecting more news-driven markets as the day progresses.

It’s a quiet start to the day on Tuesday, with little likely to hit markets in the first two sessions of the day. However, the New York session has the propensity, at least from a calendar perspective, to be the busiest of the week. Key US CPI data is due out early in the session, while later in the day the Fed Chair Nomination Vote will take place, where Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed as the next leader of the central bank.

Australian markets will come into focus early in the Asian session on Wednesday, with Wage Price Index data due out. Again, there is little of note scheduled in the London session today, but the New York day again sees crucial inflation numbers being released out of the US, this time the PPI data, due out shortly after the open.

The Asian session has little on the calendar on Thursday; however, things should pick up in the latter two sessions of the day. The London session sees a big UK data drop early in the day, with GDP numbers the highlight of several scheduled releases. Liquidity may also see a bit of a drop during the session, with Swiss, French and German markets all off for bank holidays. US data will be in focus again shortly after the New York open, with Retail Sales numbers out alongside the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims figures. Later in the day, we hear from several Fed members, including Schmid, Hammack, Barr and Williams, which could add some spice to markets.

There is very little of note on the calendar on Friday to get traders excited. However, given the fact that President Trump is expected to be in China and Middle East updates are likely to continue, traders are expecting another lively day to close out the week.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 11 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Positive Sentiment Drives Markets to Record Levels on Friday – Nasdaq up 1.7%

US equity markets finished mixed but overall stronger on Friday, with technology stocks again leading the charge as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs. The Nasdaq outperformed with a sharp 1.71% rally to finish at 26,247, while the S&P 500 gained 0.84% to close at 7,398. The Dow Jones was little changed on the session but still edged 0.02% higher to end at 49,609. Market sentiment was initially supported by stronger-than-expected US employment data, which reinforced confidence in the resilience of the US labour market and broader economy. However, despite the solid economic data, traders continued to focus heavily on geopolitical developments in the Gulf region, with hopes for a potential peace agreement weighing on both treasury yields and the US dollar into the close. The US Dollar Index fell 0.22% to 97.84, while bond markets also rallied modestly. US 2-year treasury yields declined 2.7 basis points to 3.885%, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling 3.2 basis points to 4.354%. Commodity markets remained volatile throughout the day as traders balanced geopolitical risks against broader macroeconomic themes. Oil prices finished higher despite choppy trading conditions, with Brent crude rising 1.23% to settle at $101.29 per barrel, while WTI crude added 0.64% to close at $95.42. Gold also strengthened on the weaker US dollar, climbing 0.63% to $4,715.25 an ounce.

Oil Gaps on Open as Peace Hopes Fall

Oil prices had fallen over the course of last week’s trading as investors started to look hopefully at comments from both the US and Iran that a peace deal could be forthcoming and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz likely in the short term. Those hopes had increased by Friday, with a proposal from the US being reviewed by Iran. However, a counterproposal and a consequent sharp rejection from President Trump have seen oil gap higher on the open this morning, with WTI jumping nearly 3% to trade above $98 a barrel again and Brent pushing over 3% to trade back above $104. Traders are now expecting to see both benchmarks push higher in the coming session and, if we see a further escalation of rhetoric and, more importantly, an escalation in hostilities in the Gulf — which have still been continuing despite the ‘ceasefire’ — then we could see both pushing back towards recent highs in short order. The optimists out there will be hoping this is more tactics from President Trump, but for now they have to trade the information in front of them, and that is pointing towards higher prices again.

Quiet Calendar Day to Kick off Trading Week – Middle East to Dominate Moves

Geopolitical focus turns to the start of the Asian session today after reports emerged shortly before the market open that President Trump has rejected Iran’s counteroffer to the US peace proposal submitted on Friday. The latest headlines are expected to keep geopolitical tensions firmly in focus and could lead to heightened volatility across risk assets early this week. We have seen some gapping on the FX open — the first market in play for the day — with the dollar appreciating against most of the majors as peace hopes have taken a knock. The focus will move to fundamentals later in the session, however briefly, with key Chinese data due out midway through the day. CPI (exp +0.9% y/y) and PPI (exp +1.7% y/y) numbers will be closely monitored in local markets and could add to overall sentiment as the day progresses. There is little of note on the economic calendar in both the London and New York sessions today, but traders are expecting more updates on the Middle East to hit the newswires and keep volatility elevated.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 11/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

FX traders are expecting to see some big moves in the dollar in the New York session on Tuesday with the release of the first key inflation update of the week. CPI numbers are due out early in the day and after another stronger than expected Non-Farms Payroll result on Friday, sticky inflation data could push Fed interest rate cut expectations out of 2026 and even out of the door if they come in higher than expected, with some market participants already calling for the next move to be a hike from the world’s most influential central bank.

The market is expecting to see the headline month-on-month number fall from last month’s 0.9% increase to a 0.6% increase this month with the crucial year-on-year number rising to a hefty 3.7% increase on the back of the surging energy market. Core data is expected to have a 0.3% monthly increase and the annual figure to come in with a 2.7% increase, still way above the Fed’s 2% target level.

Cable is setting up nicely from a technical point of view on the daily chart for a good move if the data prints off expectations. It has rallied nicely from levels under 1.3200 early in April to highs around 1.3650 in May and a strong result either way should see some good percentage moves in the short-term and maybe break into fresh ranges for longer-term players if it coincides with the dollar move from a geopolitical perspective. It is currently trading just under strong resistance levels on the chart, and a stronger result should see it drop back into recent ranges, whilst a surprise weaker print should see those resistance levels break and the pound move higher to challenge annual highs just under 1.3900.

Resistance 2: 1.3867 – 2026 High and Trendline Resistance

Resistance 1: 1.3658 – May High and Short Term Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 1.3422 – 200 Day Moving Average

Support 2: 1.3254 – Long Term Trendline Support

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The post Trade Cable on the US CPI Data first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 11/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.56%, Shanghai Composite down 0.43% Hang Seng down 1.20% ASX down 1.71%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,727.41 (0.35%) Silver at $80.420 (0.30%), Brent Oil at $101.28 (1.28%), WTI Oil at $95.91 (1.17%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.389, UK 10-year yield at 4.9540, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9972

News & Data:

• (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  109K  to 118K  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets traded lower on Friday as investors reacted to renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran despite an ongoing ceasefire agreement. Concerns escalated after both nations exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with each side accusing the other of initiating the attack.

Despite the flare-up, President Donald Trump maintained that the ceasefire remains intact, downplaying the incident as “just a love tap” during a call with an ABC News reporter. In a later Truth Social post, Trump claimed the U.S. had “completely destroyed” Iranian boats and drones involved in the exchange. He also warned that Iran would face stronger military action if it failed to agree to a nuclear deal quickly.

Oil prices initially rose before trimming gains. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 0.81% to $95.85 per barrel, while Brent crude futures gained 1.07% to $101.13.

Regional markets mostly declined. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.68% after reaching a record high a day earlier, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.93%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.19%, and China’s CSI300 fell 0.90%. India’s Nifty50 also edged 0.50% lower as global sentiment weakened.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Non-Farm Employment Change

The post Friday 8th May 2026: Asia-Pacific Markets Fall as U.S.-Iran Tensions Escalate Despite Ceasefire first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 08 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session reflected a strong risk-on tone led by AI and semiconductor enthusiasm, while geopolitical optimism around the Middle East eased pressure on energy markets. Equity indices across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan outperformed, oil prices weakened sharply, and FX traders remained highly sensitive to developments involving the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan ahead of upcoming global macro data releases and central bank signals.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

A mix of geopolitical developments, central bank expectations, and key macroeconomic releases is driving risk sentiment across global markets. European equities have turned cautious after recent gains, with weaker regional economic data and falling oil prices weighing on sentiment, while optimism surrounding potential U.S.–Iran negotiations continues to influence energy markets and safe-haven flows.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. Dollar is trading with mixed momentum today as markets react to a combination of geopolitical tensions, Treasury yield movements, and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. Safe-haven demand initially supported the Dollar after renewed tensions involving the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices higher and increased market uncertainty. However, optimism about possible diplomatic progress in the Middle East later weighed on the greenback, causing the Dollar Index (DXY) to soften in parts of today’s session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices are trading near multi-week highs today, Friday, May 8, 2026, as investors continue to favor safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and shifting expectations around U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Spot gold has been hovering around the $4,700–$4,750 range after rebounding strongly from earlier weekly lows.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is still trading on the back of a “higher-for-longer” interest rate outlook, after recent European Central Bank signals that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and that additional tightening is still possible if energy-driven price pressures persist. Markets continue to price in potential rate hikes in the coming months, which has kept the euro relatively supported against other majors.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc (CHF) is trading in a generally firm and supported environment, with market focus still driven by safe-haven demand, sticky geopolitical risk, and expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep policy extremely cautious. Recent price action shows the franc holding relatively strong against both the euro and US dollar, as traders continue to favor CHF during periods of global uncertainty and energy-driven inflation pressures.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (12:20 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound is showing a relatively stable but slightly supported tone in global FX markets, holding close to recent highs against both the US dollar and the euro. Sterling has been underpinned by shifting expectations around UK monetary policy, with markets still pricing in potential further Bank of England tightening later in the year as inflation risks remain elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April is detailed yet, but consensus previews anticipated a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios with inflation peaking over 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline before easing below 2% in three years, or higher at 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is trading in a relatively tight range against the U.S. dollar, with USD/CAD hovering around the mid-1.36 area, reflecting a largely sideways but slightly weak bias for the loonie. Canada’s recent data show a surprisingly strong trade surplus and improving manufacturing activity, which normally supports the currency, but these gains are being offset by weaker oil sentiment and shifting expectations for Bank of Canada policy.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on Friday are still being driven primarily by geopolitical risk and supply disruption dynamics, especially linked to the ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainty around the U.S.–Iran situation. Brent crude has been fluctuating roughly around the $100–$102 per barrel zone, while WTI is holding near the mid-to-high $90s, after sharp intraday swings seen earlier in the week as optimism and skepticism over potential peace talks shifted sentiment quickly.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 08 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 98.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 97.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap  resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1714

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1661

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1796

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 184.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 182.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8653

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8617
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8676
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3554

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3458
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3630
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 214.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 211.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 214.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7836

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7760
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7917
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 157.88

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 155.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                           

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3641

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3550

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3704

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7190

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 07150

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7257

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5920

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5873

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6036

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 49,485.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,894.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,814.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,342.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,665.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,126.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 7,270.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,179.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,384.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 79,508.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 77,288.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 82,811.88

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 2,299.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,218.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,325.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 101.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 90.46
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 110.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4631.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,510.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,767.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Friday 8th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Stocks Hit as Ceasefire Comes Under Threat – Dow down 0.6%

US equity markets closed lower overnight as investor caution continued to dominate sentiment ahead of further developments surrounding peace negotiations between the US and Iran. US stocks finished modestly lower across the board, with the Dow Jones falling 0.63% to 49,596, while the S&P 500 lost 0.38% to close at 7,337. The Nasdaq was relatively resilient but still ended 0.13% lower at 25,806, as traders reduced risk exposure ahead of tonight’s key US employment data release. In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields moved higher amid ongoing inflation concerns and fears that any renewed escalation in the Middle East could keep energy prices elevated for longer. The US 2-Year yield rose 4.6 basis points to 3.912%, while the benchmark US 10-Year yield gained 3.7 basis points to 4.386%. The move higher in yields helped the US dollar recover some recent losses, with the DXY climbing 0.24% to 98.24. Commodity markets again experienced highly volatile trading conditions. Oil prices initially swung sharply lower before rebounding strongly into the close as traders reacted to the latest headlines surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and regional security concerns. Brent crude finished 1.82% higher at $103.11 per barrel, while WTI surged 2.71% to settle at $97.84 per barrel. Gold also traded in wide ranges throughout the session before ending near unchanged, slipping just 0.08% to $4,685.80 per ounce.

Middle East Situation Pivotal for Markets

Developments out of the Middle East are again set to dominate market sentiment, overshadowing even tonight’s major US employment data release. The coming sessions are shaping up as pivotal for global markets, with traders closely watching to see whether current peace efforts can hold or if the conflict escalates further. Markets continue to await confirmation that Iran will accept the latest US proposal, while overnight reports that the US is preparing to resume shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz next week added another layer of uncertainty for investors. Since the New York close, however, fresh reports of renewed hostilities between the US and Iran have emerged, weighing on sentiment heading into the Asian session and setting the stage for another volatile trading day across global asset classes. President Trump has stated that the ceasefire remains in place, although both sides have since confirmed strikes against each other. That has left market participants increasingly cautious, with traders now preparing for the possibility of renewed downside pressure across risk assets in the session ahead.

Non-Farms in Focus on the Calendar Today

It is Non-Farm Payroll Day today for markets, and it is set up in the classic fashion, with little else on the calendar in the preceding two sessions, which would normally lead to a quiet trading day followed by a jump in volatility on the big data release. However, geopolitical updates are likely to keep markets lively into the start of the New York session, when the focus will move to fundamentals and the US employment data. The market is expecting the headline Non-Farm number to show a 65k increase over the last month, with Average Hourly Earnings pipping up to +0.3% month-on-month and the Unemployment Rate remaining steady at 4.3%. Canadian Employment Change (exp +12.9k) and the Unemployment Rate (exp 4.3%) are out at the same time, and University of Michigan Preliminary data is out later in the day. However, traders expect the US employment data and the consequent geopolitical updates will dominate sentiment into the week’s close.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 08/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Markets were dominated by risk‑on re‑pricing, chiefly driven by growing optimism around a U.S.–Iran peace framework and continued strength in U.S. labor‑market data, rather than a wave of hard new macro releases. Major U.S. equity indices closed sharply higher, with the S&P 500 just above 7,300 and the Nasdaq 100 at record highs, while Treasury yields edged lower and oil prices backtracked, reflecting a compression of Middle‑East‑related risk premia.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a high-impact Friday, driven by geopolitical headlines and key US data that could spark volatility in oil, forex, and equities. Monitoring these developments closely will be essential for positioning amid thin liquidity from regional holidays.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar showed limited movement today amid anticipation for the key April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data release at 8:30 AM ET, forecasted at just 65,000 jobs added versus the prior 178,000, potentially signaling a labor market slowdown. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and “Project Freedom” efforts to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping have eased some oil-related inflationary fears, contributing to dollar stability around the DXY level of 98. Markets await NFP outcomes, wage growth figures (prior 0.2% m/m), and unemployment rate (prior 4.3%) to gauge Fed policy direction amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices have surged in recent sessions amid de-escalating Middle East tensions, particularly progress in US-Iran talks, which have weakened the dollar and lowered oil prices, easing inflation fears. Gold traded above $4,700 per ounce, up over 3% in a day to around $4,693-$4,747, rebounding from a one-month low near $4,500. On Friday, markets await key US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could influence Fed rate expectations and gold’s trajectory.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its strong upward trajectory, trading around 0.7256 against the USD after hitting a four-year high above 0.72 earlier in the week. This resilience persists despite Australia’s first trade deficit in over eight years (AUD -1.84 billion in March), driven by surging imports of data center equipment and higher fuel costs from prior Middle East tensions.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
• Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
• Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
• Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
• Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
• The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
• The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar remained steady in early trading around recent levels near 0.596 against the USD, extending gains from a risk-on rally driven by U.S.-Iran de-escalation progress in the Strait of Hormuz, though caution persists amid limited new details and ongoing Middle East tensions. The RBNZ’s freshly released May Financial Stability Report underscores a resilient but challenged financial system, with elevated inflation expectations at 6.6% signaling potential policy shifts.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen has seen ongoing volatility amid speculation of further interventions by Japanese authorities, with recent surges linked to official buying after the currency weakened past key levels like 160 against the dollar. As of the latest available updates around early May 2026, USD/JPY has fluctuated between approximately 155 and 157.8, steadying near 156.5-157 after sharp rallies in thin holiday trading sessions.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on Friday remain volatile amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, with WTI crude expected to settle at or above $109 per barrel based on prediction markets and models, following a recent pullback to around $102 on May 5 due to perceived de-escalation in US-Iran tensions.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Higher Margin Requirement (HMR)

At IC, we continuously review our trading conditions to ensure they remain transparent, responsible, and aligned with changing market conditions.

As part of this commitment, we are introducing Higher Margin Requirement (HMR) periods across selected products. These periods are designed to help manage increased market volatility and risk during specific trading conditions and major economic events.

This update forms part of our broader leverage framework, providing clients with greater visibility into how leverage and margin requirements may temporarily change during periods of elevated market activity.

What are HMR Periods?

HMR periods are predefined time windows during which:

• Leverage is temporarily reduced
• Margin requirements are increased
• Updated leverage tiers apply to new positions opened during the HMR period

These measures are intended to reflect the increased volatility and reduced liquidity that may occur around major market events, market close periods, and weekend openings.

HMR conditions apply only to positions opened during the HMR period. Existing positions will generally retain the leverage at which they were opened, unless otherwise specified under the Company’s policies.

When the HMR period ends, your margin is automatically recalculated based on the prevailing mark-to-market value at that time, which may result in higher or lower margin compared to when the positions were originally opened.

When do HMR Periods Apply?

End of Day

HMR conditions apply:

• Daily, starting 30 minutes before market close
• Until 15 minutes after the market opens

Weekend

HMR conditions apply:

• Every Friday, starting 1 hour before market close
• Until Monday, 30 minutes after market open

Major Economic News Releases

HMR conditions apply:

• From 15 minutes before
• Until 1 minute after high-impact economic announcements

The major events currently covered include:

• Central Bank Rate Decisions
• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
• CPI
• Core CPI
• Crude Oil Inventories

Please note that these events are indicative and not exhaustive. The Company reserves the right to apply HMR conditions at its discretion in response to market volatility or changing market conditions.

Forex CFDs – HMR Leverage Tiers

During HMR periods, the following leverage tiers apply to Forex CFDs:

Metals CFDs – HMR Leverage Tiers

Gold (XAU)

Silver (XAG)

Margin requirements during HMR periods are calculated progressively based on the applicable leverage tier.

As a result, larger positions may require significantly higher margin during HMR periods compared to normal market conditions.

Why are HMR Periods Important?

Periods surrounding major market events may experience:

• Increased volatility
• Rapid price movements
• Wider spreads
• Reduced market liquidity

Clients are encouraged to monitor their available margin carefully and ensure sufficient funds are maintained in their accounts during HMR periods.

If you have any questions, please reach out to our support team. We’re always here to assist you.

Kind Regards,
IC

The post Important Information HMR Periods first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 08/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Traders will turn their attention back to fundamentals from geopolitics in the final trading session of the week as key US employment data is released that could see some significant changes in Fed rate move expectations, especially if it combines with a peace deal with Iran. Rate cut hopes have been pushed back in the last few months as energy prices surges have led to inflationary fears in the US and around the globe, however if those fears are pulled back and we see a weakening in the labour market, then we could see rate cuts come back onto the table for the Federal Reserve Bank.

The market is expecting the headline Non-Farm number to show a 65k increase over the last month, well down from last month’s surprise 178k print, with the Average Hourly Earnings pipping up to +0.3% month-on-month and the Unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3%. A weaker than expected result would we welcomed by investors and the incoming Fed Chair alike and should see some sharp downside moves in the dollar, however, another topside surprise could hit those rate cut expectations further and see the greenback rally strongly.

The Euro is nicely poised from a technical perspective coming into the data with good levels near that market that traders will be using to trade over the data release. A weaker number or 30k or more lower than expected should see the dollar hit a would see the Euro challenge strong trendline resistance and recent highs near the 1.1800, with breaks here and at the April high likely to lead to a fresh assault on the 1.200 level again, whilst a higher surprise should see the pair hit with strong support coming in just below the 1.1700 area, with bigger moves likely to test longer-term support under 1.1600.

Resistance 2:  1.1850 – April High

Resistance 1: 1.1796 – Trendline Resistance and May High

Support 1: 1.1704 – Trendline Support

Support 2: 1.1679 – 200-Day Moving Average

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property. 

The post Trade the Euro on the Non-Farm Payroll Data first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.