The post Ex-Dividend 13/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Markets are poised for more moves in financial markets over the next few sessions as fundamental updates are released alongside a continuous stream of geopolitical updates on the Middle East. For the moment news from the Middle East is likely to dictate the major short term moves in FX, but fundamental updates out of the US this week will have a big say in the medium term and long term moves in the dollar.

We have major inflation numbers out of the US this week with both the CPI and PPI data due out and although the CPI will probably capture the initial reaction earlier in the week and big surprises in the PPI numbers released on Wednesday could see more impact on the majors. The headline month-on-month PPI number is expected to show a 0.5% increase while the more stable Core data is expected to come in with a 0.3% increase, with both indicating more inflationary pressure on the US economy. If these numbers reinforce a strong CPI print on Tuesday, then we could see topside moves in the dollar start to pick up, whereas if we see weaker prints, traders are expecting to see more weakening for the greenback.

The Euro is sitting near range highs and a weaker print, which will probably be more of a surprise to the market given the current environment could see it break through resistance near 1.1800 to challenge the key psychological level at 1.2000. However, stronger numbers, especially if coming in line with strong CPI data and increased geopolitical tensions should see the dollar drive higher and Euro break back down through support levels around 1.1730 to push back into levels seen throughout April.

Resistance 2: 1.1848 – April High

Resistance 1: 1.1790 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 1.1727 – Trendline Support

Support 2: 1.1682 – 200 Day Moving Average

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

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The post Trade the Euro on the US PPI Data Release first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Australia’s Federal Budget 2026-27 unveiling and anticipation around India’s April CPI data release. The Australian budget, delivered by Treasurer Jim Chalmers at 7:30 pm AEST (11:30 UTC), highlighted a $45 billion improvement in the bottom line over four years through spending restraint amid inflation pressures, alongside reforms to housing tax incentives, capital gains, negative gearing, NDIS cuts, and boosted defense spending to $887 billion over a decade.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

U.S.-Iran tensions are stalling talks, driving oil prices higher, and prompting Goldman Sachs to delay its Fed rate-cut forecasts to December 2026 due to persistent inflation pressures. Wall Street futures remain subdued amid this geopolitical risk, while AI optimism supports S&P 500 year-end targets from HSBC at 7,650 and RBC at 7,900, with recent April jobs data showing resilient employment at 4.3% unemployment.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Nomination Vote (Tentative)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar remained subdued, trading near six-week lows on the DXY at approximately 97.7-98.2, driven by persistent hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement that diminishes its safe-haven appeal and expectations of Federal Reserve easing amid upcoming CPI data and leadership changes. This caps a challenging period for the greenback, with earlier safe-haven gains from Middle East tensions now fading, positioning it for potential further declines if global growth accelerates and other central banks hold steady.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Nomination Vote (Tentative)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading in a volatile, consolidating range today, after a sharp prior correction tied to geopolitical easing and hawkish‑leaning central‑bank signals. Spot gold is hovering around the mid‑4,600s USD per ounce, down from recent highs as investors reassess safe‑haven demand amid reduced tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and a firm‑talk backdrop from major central banks.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

Today, the euro is slightly under pressure against the dollar despite a broadly positive domestic backdrop, as Middle‑East‑related risk‑off flows and dollar strength dominate FX flows while the ECB’s expected June rate cut looms; at the same time, higher but still‑moderate inflation, improving investor confidence, and a robust manufacturing sector are helping underpin the euro‑area economy and limiting the downside in EUR.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc remains one of the strongest major currencies, supported by safe-haven demand, firmer Swiss inflation, and expectations that the SNB will stay cautious rather than cut rates aggressively. The main story today is continued CHF resilience: it is still benefiting from market uncertainty, while euro and dollar weakness have kept the franc elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound remained relatively steady with no major breaking news, continuing a resilient monthly performance where it hit multi-month highs versus the dollar earlier in May, supported by ebbing USD momentum and positive UK retail sales data from March; however, lingering BoE rate cut probabilities priced at around 80% for near-term moves and political/economic uncertainties capped upside potential, keeping GBP/USD near 1.33 levels amid broader forex caution.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April is detailed yet, but consensus previews anticipated a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios with inflation peaking over 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline before easing below 2% in three years, or higher at 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar (CAD) shows stability around USD/CAD levels of 1.36–1.37 today, May 12, 2026, amid forecasts of modest weakness in the near term due to resilient U.S. economic data and commodity influences. Recent market snapshots indicate CAD/USD trading near 0.734, with prediction markets active for intraday rates as of early May 12.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock ( 8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are surging today amid escalating US-Iran tensions, with Brent crude futures up 0.29% at $104.51 per barrel and WTI at $98.38, as President Trump rejects Iran’s peace offer and describes the ceasefire as on “life support,” prolonging the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 97.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap  resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.1749

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1716

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1811

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 184.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 182.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.31
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8642

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8617
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8676
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3554

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3458
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3657
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 213.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 212.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 215.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7800

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7760
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7848
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 157.88

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 156.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                           

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3641

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3550

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3704

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7212

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 07190

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7277

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5920

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5873

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5991

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 49,362.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,894.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,125.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 24,373.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,665.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,074.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 7,370.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,262.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,451.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 79,508.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 77,288.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 82,811.88

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 2,362.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,273.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,452.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 101.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 94.89
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 110.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 4,793.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,660.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,889.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Tuesday 12th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.63%, Shanghai Composite down 0.40% Hang Seng up 0.31% ASX down 0.26%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,730.96 (0.05%) Silver at $86.882 (1.08%), Brent Oil at $105.10 (0.85%), WTI Oil at $99.09 (1.04%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.422, UK 10-year yield at 5.0030, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0433

News & Data:

• (USD) Existing Home Sales  4.02M  to 4.05M   expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Tuesday as investors brushed aside renewed concerns over the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Donald Trump warned that the truce was on “massive life support” after Iran reportedly delivered an unacceptable response to Washington’s proposal aimed at ending the conflict.

Trump compared the ceasefire’s condition to a critically ill patient with only a “1% chance of living,” raising fears that tensions in the Middle East could escalate further. Despite the uncertainty, regional markets showed varied reactions.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.19%, while the broader Topix index rose 0.27%. However, South Korea’s Kospi reversed earlier gains and dropped more than 3% after hitting a record high on Monday. The small-cap Kosdaq declined over 4%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.82%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged up 0.47%, and China’s CSI 300 remained flat.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 2.545%, its highest level since 1997, after Bank of Japan minutes indicated some policymakers favored raising interest rates soon.

In the U.S., futures markets were slightly positive after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh record highs overnight, supported by strong technology stocks despite rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core CPI m/m

The post Tuesday 12th May 2026: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as Trump Raises Doubts Over U.S.-Iran Ceasefire first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

US Stocks Edge Higher Despite Increasing Tensions – Dow up 0.2%
US equity markets finished modestly higher overnight, although sentiment remained cautious as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and the increasing risk of renewed hostilities. President Trump’s warning that the current ceasefire agreement is “on life support” reignited concerns around potential energy supply disruptions and the inflationary impact of elevated oil prices, keeping traders on edge throughout the session.

The Dow Jones gained 0.19% to close at 49,704, while the S&P 500 also added 0.19% to finish at 7,412. The Nasdaq underperformed slightly but still edged 0.10% higher to close at 26,274, as technology stocks remained relatively resilient despite higher bond yields.

US Treasury yields pushed higher across the curve as markets reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy ahead of tonight’s key inflation release. The US 2-year yield rose 6.9 basis points to 3.954%, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed 5.9 basis points to 4.414%. The stronger yield environment also helped support the US dollar, with the USD Index rising 0.05% to 97.95.

Energy markets again remained a major focus as traders continued to monitor updates on the Gulf, with crude oil prices extending recent gains as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, fuelling ongoing concerns around global supply constraints. Brent crude rose 3.15% to settle at $104.50 per barrel, while WTI crude gained 3.20% to finish at $98.45 per barrel.

Gold prices also moved higher in volatile trade, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, with the precious metal rising 0.44% to close at $4,736.17 an ounce.

Precious Metals Move Back into Focus

Strangely, the major precious metal markets have been relatively quiet over the past couple of months despite the high levels of geopolitical concern brought about by the conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent surge in oil prices. Intra-day volatility has still been high, but both gold and silver have largely been trading in line with dollar moves rather than as haven products, and have remained in relatively restricted ranges. Certainly, the huge moves north, and subsequent corrections, that both saw in Q1 will have had some impact on this behaviour, but traders are starting to pay more attention again to both products, with silver breaking out to fresh multi-month highs in trading yesterday and now gold threatening to do the same. If we see gold drive through the recent high near $4,765 in the coming sessions, we could see it break much higher, especially if supported by weaker US data later today, with the next topside target now around the $5,000 level.

US Inflation Data in Focus Today

Geopolitical updates will continue to dominate investor focus today. However, on the macroeconomic front, with little else on the calendar for most of the day, attention now turns squarely toward tonight’s US CPI inflation data. The data is expected to be pivotal for near-term Federal Reserve expectations, especially given last week’s stronger-than-expected jobs numbers. Another sticky inflation print could see markets further scale back interest rate cut expectations, potentially pushing any easing hopes later into the year or removing them from the outlook altogether. The market is expecting to see the headline month-on-month number fall from last month’s 0.9% increase to a 0.6% increase this month, with the crucial year-on-year number rising to a 3.7% increase. Core data is expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase and the annual figure is expected to come in at 2.7%. Confirmation of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair is also expected to come through during the session. However, this is only likely to impact markets if it is not confirmed.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 12/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets traded cautiously overnight amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks, boosting oil prices amid supply fears, while Friday’s robust April jobs data (115k added, 4.3% unemployment) reinforced economic strength but delayed rate cut hopes; oil was most impacted, with equities pausing after records and USD firming slightly.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets are heading into Tuesday in a fragile, oil‑driven risk‑on mood, with traders watching for renewed escalations in the Iran–US conflict, fresh Asia‑wide economic data, and any updates on US trade tariffs or Chinese stimulus, all of which are likely to drive volatility in regional equities, bonds, and currencies throughout the APAC session.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Nomination Vote (Tentative)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar showed mixed performance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and market volatility. Recent reports indicate the Dollar Index (DXY) faced pressure from a weakening Indian Rupee, which hit levels around 94.88–95.18 per USD following Indian PM Narendra Modi’s speech on forex conservation and rising crude oil prices above $105 per barrel, driven by US-Iran conflict escalation.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Nomination Vote (Tentative)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is consolidating in the mid‑4,700s USD per ounce after a sharp run‑up and a subsequent 2‑month correction, with prices still significantly higher than a year ago and supported by strong central‑bank demand, ongoing geopolitical risk, and its role as a portfolio diversifier amid rising bond‑equity correlations. Market focus is on near‑term U.S. data and Fed‑rate expectations, as well as Middle East headlines, which are keeping volatility elevated but preventing any sustained breakdown below key support around the low‑4,500s.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The AUD has trended strongly in early May 2026, hovering near multi-year highs around 0.718-0.72 amid favorable global risk sentiment, softer oil prices, and expectations of steady or tighter RBA policy, though volatility looms from domestic CPI and geopolitical developments. Traders eyed potential tests of 0.72 resistance, with earlier strength tied to robust Australian growth and labor data outweighing occasional USD safe-haven bids.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
• Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
• Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
• Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
• Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
• The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
• The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is trading in a relatively firm, recovery‑oriented range versus the US dollar and other majors, underpinned by a mix of easing geopolitical risk, modestly upbeat domestic data, and lingering expectations for a July rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen strengthened notably against the USD following multiple suspected interventions by Tokyo authorities, with USD/JPY dropping from 160+ levels to around 156 amid holiday-season operations costing up to ¥5.4 trillion ($34.5 billion). While BOJ’s hawkish hold and officials’ threats of further action curbed downside pressures from U.S. rate hike expectations and oil-driven inflation.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock ( 8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on 12 May 2026 are slightly calming after months of extreme volatility driven by Middle‑East conflict and a near‑blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude pulling back from its April spike into the low‑ to mid‑90‑dollar range on hopes of a US–Iran deal to end hostilities and reopen key shipping lanes.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 12/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.16%, Shanghai Composite up 0.94% Hang Seng down 0.31% ASX down 0.60%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,684.31 (0.98%) Silver at $81.115 (0.35%), Brent Oil at $105.83 (4.47%), WTI Oil at $100.15 (4.97%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.393, UK 10-year yield at 4.9170, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0047

News & Data:

• (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change  109K  to 118K  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday as rising oil prices and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran weighed on investor sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi surged to a fresh record at the open, outperforming regional peers despite concerns over a prolonged Middle East conflict.

Investor worries intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal aimed at ending the war. According to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency, Tehran’s counteroffer called for a ceasefire across all fronts and the removal of sanctions. Trump, however, dismissed the proposal as “totally unacceptable” in a Truth Social post.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also warned that the conflict was “not over,” emphasizing ongoing efforts by the U.S. and Israel to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The situation has further disrupted global energy markets, especially after Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.

Oil prices jumped sharply, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 3.94% to $99.18 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 3.49% to $104.83.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 4.70%, boosted by a 10.74% rally in SK Hynix. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded slightly lower, Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.83%, China’s CSI 300 rose 0.58%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.48%.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Existing Home Sales

The post Monday 11th May 2026: Asia Markets Mixed as Oil Surges on Escalating U.S.-Iran Tensions; Kospi Hits Record High first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Fresh spike in Middle‑East risk after Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, which lifted oil prices sharply and kept global risk‑off sentiment elevated despite solid prior‑week gains on Wall Street. China’s April CPI and PPI data, released in the same window, confirmed that inflation is stabilizing off earlier deflation prints but with producer‑price pressures rising, reinforcing concerns about input‑cost‑driven margin squeeze and keeping central‑bank policy on a cautious path.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should focus on escalating US-Iran tensions, driving oil prices up $3 per barrel amid a deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a resilient US jobs report showing 115K jobs added in April, exceeding forecasts, while consumer sentiment hits a record low of 48.2 due to high energy costs and tariffs.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is trading slightly firmer as strong US April jobs data and fragile truce talks with Iran bolster demand for the world’s main safe‑haven currency; the dollar index sits near 98, reflecting a modest rebound from a recent ten‑week low, while markets await the next US inflation print that could influence both rate‑cut expectations and the greenback’s near‑term path.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading in a tight consolidation range following a recent recovery from multi‑month lows, with spot prices hovering around the mid‑$4,000 per ounce bracket and key support near $4,500–$4,470. The market is in a short‑term stand‑off, as traders weigh persistent inflation, geopolitical risks, and central‑bank demand against the prospect of further U.S. macro data and potential policy shifts, leaving gold in a volatile but structurally supported mode for the week ahead.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro gained ground versus the dollar (hovering around EUR/USD 1.18-1.20 levels), supported by improved investor sentiment, robust manufacturing data, and ECB hawkishness amid Middle East risks and de-dollarization trends, though global uncertainties as high oil prices loom.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

Today’s Swiss franc news is mostly bullish for CHF: the currency remains near its strongest levels in years, helped by safe-haven demand and a recent rise in Swiss inflation to 0.6% in April. That inflation surprise has reduced immediate pressure on the Swiss National Bank to ease policy further, so the franc is likely to stay supported unless risk sentiment improves sharply or the SNB signals a more dovish stance.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound is being driven today by a broadly firmer sterling tone after last week’s Bank of England decision, with markets still leaning on the idea that rates may need to stay higher for longer. At the same time, the dollar has eased a bit, which has helped GBP stay supported, while traders are also watching UK political and fiscal risks that could limit further gains.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April is detailed yet, but consensus previews anticipated a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios with inflation peaking over 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline before easing below 2% in three years, or higher at 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened slightly against the US dollar on Monday, May 11, 2026, trading near 1.3785 USD/CAD and approaching a five-month low amid anticipation for key inflation data due Tuesday. This decline, down about 0.1%, reflects growing bearish pressure from moving averages and speculators’ increased short positions, now at their highest since December.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are sharply higher on Monday, as Middle East tensions remain front and center for the market. Brent crude rose to around $104–105 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to about $95, reflecting renewed fears of supply disruption linked to the ongoing conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The jobs report, as the primary macroeconomic data release, showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 115,000, beating expectations of around 55,000-62,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience amid signs of slowing hiring and rising part-time work for economic reasons. Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions also dominated headlines, with renewed hostilities threatening a fragile ceasefire and impacting oil supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz, alongside chip stock rebounds and anticipation for upcoming inflation data.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus on three big themes on Monday, 11 May 2026: China inflation, Japan’s yen intervention risk, and the wider risk tone from Middle East tensions and US macro headlines. China’s April CPI and PPI are due on Monday morning in Asia, and a soft print could reinforce expectations for more policy support from Beijing.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar remains under pressure heading into a data-heavy week featuring US CPI, retail sales, and existing home sales releases, alongside BoJ updates and potential Trump-Xi talks. Pair movements include EUR/USD up 0.51% near 1.1786, GBP/USD gaining 0.52% to 1.3628, and USD/JPY down 0.14% at 156.69, reflecting broad greenback softening. Forecasts suggest DXY trading between 90-100 through 2026’s remainder, with H2 bias lower amid de-escalation hopes.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is range-bound in a critical decision zone ($4,715–$4,725) after rebounding above $4,700, supported by mixed U.S. economic signals, persistent inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainties like U.S.–Iran tensions, though analysts warn of volatility with downside risks to $4,500 or upside tests near $4,850 ahead of key data releases.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar is holding near four‑year highs against the US dollar, consolidating around the mid‑0.72 area after a recent rally fueled by cooling Middle‑East tensions, strong commodity‑linked fundamentals, and expectations of a hawkish‑leaning RBA hike later this week. Markets remain sensitive to the RBA’s policy tone and the broader US‑dollar risk‑sentiment complex, positioning the AUD for either a test of stronger resistance near 0.73 or a pause in its current uptrend.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
• Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
• Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
• Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
• Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
• The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
• The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) saw limited specific updates based on the most recent available market reports, but it continued building on recent gains amid ongoing global risk sentiment and domestic economic signals. Trading around 0.594-0.597 against the USD, the kiwi hovered near recent two-month highs after a positive jobs report showed unemployment dipping to 5.3% in Q1, bolstering hopes for a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike later in the year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen remains under pressure near USD/JPY 156-157 levels following a series of interventions in late April and early May, where authorities spent billions to halt declines past 160 amid speculative selling and oil-driven USD strength; traders are on high alert for further action from Tokyo, tempered by BOJ’s cautious stance and global risk-off moods, with no major new catalysts reported today but ongoing volatility expected into the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on Monday show continued volatility driven by US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, with crude prices like WTI dipping toward $90-98 per barrel amid speculation of a potential peace deal or MoU to reopen shipping routes. Bonny Light and other grades have fallen sharply from recent highs around $114, influenced by record US oil exports filling supply gaps and easing fear premiums, though Iranian attacks on vessels and UAE terminals keep risks elevated.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 97.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fiboancci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 95.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1808

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1631

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again

1st resistance: 1.2044

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 186.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 181.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 187.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8654

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8574
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8687
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3574

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3461
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3860
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 213.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 209.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 216.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7778

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7649
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7835
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 157.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 154.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 160.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                           

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3732

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3578

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3859

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 07187

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7104

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7295

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.5920

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5853

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6079

Supporting reasons: Identified a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 48,824.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 47,747.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,477.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,805.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,332.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,451.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 7,147.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,013.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,451.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 78,616.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 74,631.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 85,026.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,424.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,200.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,618.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracmemt, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 87.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 73.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 4,929.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,367.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 48,62.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 11th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.