IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 05 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Heightening geopolitical tensions following reports of a US-Iran military confrontation, which significantly impacted market sentiment and key financial instruments. Investors reacted to the instability with a flight to safety, putting pressure on risk assets while bolstering safe-haven commodities and the US dollar. Major equity markets showed sensitivity to these developments as traders assessed the potential for further energy shocks and inflationary pressures emanating from the Middle East.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

traders should be alert to Middle‑East‑driven oil‑price volatility above 110 USD on Brent, which is reinforcing a risk‑off tilt into European and US open, while the main trading catalysts will be the final US ISM services and composite PMIs plus JOLTS figures; these data points will shape odds on the Fed’s path and, in turn, volatility in equities, the dollar, and inflation‑sensitive sectors across both sessions.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (2:00 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (Feb Data)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is consolidating with a slight uptick today, trading around 98.3–98.4 on the Dollar Index as safe‑haven demand and elevated oil prices support its value, even as month‑on‑month and year‑on‑year momentum remains mildly negative amid a cautious Fed and elevated geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (2:00 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (Feb Data)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold traded lower, hovering around the mid‑$4,500s per ounce after a roughly 2% drop from Monday’s close, as markets price in continued “higher‑for‑longer” U.S. rates and elevated energy‑driven inflation. Despite this near‑term pullback, prices remain sharply higher year‑on‑year and are still supported by strong central‑bank demand and geopolitical risk, with several major banks maintaining multi‑thousand‑dollar price targets into late 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium earish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro maintains mild gains near 1.1730 against the dollar, buoyed by the ECB’s recent decision to hold rates steady while signaling possible June hikes amid surging 3% inflation and oil-driven pressures from Middle East conflicts. Key data releases today on trade, retail sales, and PPI are poised to influence sentiment, as analysts forecast EUR/USD climbing to 1.18 quarterly on hawkish ECB expectations despite US trade tensions.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (6:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc shows modest strength against the USD today, with the USD/CHF pair trading around 0.7840, up slightly by 0.21% amid ongoing safe-haven flows driven by US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. No major Swiss economic data releases are scheduled for May 5, 2026, though the April Unemployment Rate (expected around the previous 3.0%) is due early at 03:00 AM US Eastern Time, potentially influencing sentiment if it deviates.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British Pound is trading around $1.3527 against the U.S. Dollar and approximately 1.1574 against the Euro. Following recent Bank of England (BoE) policy announcements, the currency has maintained a firm position, having successfully cleared the 1.35 resistance level on the back of favorable central bank differentials. Market sentiment currently reflects optimism regarding the Pound’s relative strength.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April is detailed yet, but consensus previews anticipated a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios with inflation peaking over 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline before easing below 2% in three years, or higher at 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is edging slightly lower on Tuesday, as the US dollar regains some ground on geopolitical concerns and safe‑haven flows, even though strong oil prices continue to support the loonie. The currency is trading in a narrow band around mid‑1.35 on USD/CAD after four consecutive weekly gains, with markets awaiting Canadian labour data and Bank of Canada guidance to clarify whether the CAD can extend its recovery or remain range‑bound amid elevated Middle East risks and stable‑to‑hawkish US rate expectations.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock ( 8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Global oil markets are experiencing significant upward pressure today as regional security threats in the Middle East escalate, specifically concerning the safety of energy infrastructure and shipping routes. While production quotas have been increased by OPEC+, the market remains reactive to news of military strikes and trade disputes between major world powers. Investors are closely monitoring the potential for supply disruptions as the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a focal point of global energy security concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 05 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 98.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 97.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low  support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap  resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.1718

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1628

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1771

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 184.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 182.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8653

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8617
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8676
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot:1.3555

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3390
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3657
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 214.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 211.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 214.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7869

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7775
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7917
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 157.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 155.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                              

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.3641

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3550

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3704

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term bearish breakout at the pivot and continue its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.7150

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 07090

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7210

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.5888

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5829

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5920

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 49,115.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 48,326.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,846.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support

Pivot: 23,884.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,407.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,652.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 7,179.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,134.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,265.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 78,373.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 76,441.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 81,027.829

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 2,325.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,266.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,449.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 104.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 99.95
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 116.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,573.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,473.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,624.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 5th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.38%, Shanghai Composite up 0.11% Hang Seng down 1.29% ASX down 0.58%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,546.66 (0.29%) Silver at $73.268 (-0.36%), Brent Oil at $113.27 (-1.01%), WTI Oil at $108.48 (-1.81%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.440, UK 10-year yield at 4.9530, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0828

News & Data:

• (USD) Factory Orders m/m 1.5%  to 0.5%  expected

Markets Update:

Asian stocks declined Tuesday as oil prices eased slightly but remained above $100 a barrel, with markets unsettled by ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Investors cautiously monitored developments as both nations pursued diplomatic signals while continuing military actions in the region.

MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan slipped 0.3%, while Australian shares fell 0.4% in thin trading. Markets in Japan and South Korea were closed for holidays. U.S. futures also edged lower, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures down 0.1%, while European futures followed a similar softer trend.

Renewed conflict in the Gulf heightened concerns about supply disruptions, even as efforts to escort stranded vessels through the strategic waterway continued. Shipping firm Maersk confirmed one of its vessels safely exited the Gulf under military protection. However, analysts noted that the broader geopolitical stalemate remains unresolved, keeping markets volatile.

Oil prices pulled back after earlier gains, with Brent crude at $113.85 and U.S. crude at $105.03. Meanwhile, investors turned attention to upcoming earnings, with strong results so far supporting sentiment. A majority of S&P 500 companies have exceeded expectations, driven largely by continued AI-related spending.

Currency markets remained cautious, with the yen steady after recent volatility and intervention concerns. The U.S. dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand, while gold edged slightly higher.

Upcoming Events:

• 02:00 PM GMT – USD ISM Services PMI
• 02:00 PM GMT – USD JOLTS Job Openings

The post Tuesday 5th May 2026: Asia Stocks Slip as Oil Holds Above $100 Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Risk Sentiment Falls as Middle East Tensions Escalate – Dow down 1.13%
US markets traded lower in the latest session as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Reports of renewed hostilities, including Iranian claims of a missile strike on a US warship in the Strait of Hormuz and a drone attack on a UAE terminal, drove a clear risk-off tone across asset classes. Equities finished in negative territory, with the Dow Jones leading the declines, falling 1.13% to 48,941. The S&P 500 also moved lower, easing 0.41% to 7,200, while the Nasdaq showed relative resilience, slipping just 0.19% to close at 25,067. In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields spiked higher as investors adjusted to the heightened uncertainty and inflation risks tied to surging energy prices. The 2-year yield rose 7.5 basis points to 3.952%, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed 6.8 basis points to 4.438%. Currency markets saw the US dollar strengthen, with the dollar index gaining 0.31% to 98.46. However, the Japanese yen remained a key focus, with traders again flagging suspected intervention activity amid heightened volatility. Commodities reacted sharply to the geopolitical developments, with oil prices surging on fears of supply disruptions through key shipping routes. Brent crude jumped 5.30% to $113.90, while WTI crude rose 3.11% to $105.11. In contrast, gold moved lower despite the risk-off backdrop, falling 2.02% to $4,520.39 as the stronger dollar and rising yields weighed on the precious metal.

Middle East Finely Balanced for Markets
Updates during yesterday’s trading sessions from the Middle East have investors on tenterhooks as the possibility of a return to full-out war looms. Oil prices pushed higher and stocks came under pressure; however, we have not yet seen the huge moves that could come if full hostilities are resumed in the Middle East. Traders will again be watching newswires closely in the coming sessions, and if we see further strikes from Iran against its neighbours, followed by the inevitable retaliation from US troops, then oil prices could rally strongly through recent highs, taking risk sentiment and inflationary concerns with them. Some investors are hoping that negotiations are taking place in the background that could see a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, hostilities end, and recent risk rallies resume. However, if yesterday’s actions – and claims – are anything to go by, that doesn’t look likely in the short term, so prepare for more volatile markets ahead.

Volatile Day Ahead with Macro and Geopolitics Set to Hit Markets
Looking ahead, markets are bracing for another volatile session, with geopolitical headlines expected to remain the primary driver of sentiment. The Asian session will see attention turn to the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is widely expected to deliver another rate hike during the Asian session, alongside its subsequent press conference, which could add further fuel to the flames if it comes in with a ‘hawkish’ hike in the face of inflationary pressures. There is little of note on the calendar in the European session; however, later in the day we have several key US data releases scheduled. The jobs numbers for the week kick off with the JOLTS Job Openings (exp 6.87mio) data, but also released at the same time we have the ISM Services PMI (exp 53.8) and New Home Sales (exp 668k) figures, which will provide further insight into the strength of the US economy. However, given the sensitive nature of the situation in the Middle East, expect updates there to dominate sentiment in the short term.

The post General Market Analysis – 05/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 05 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets grappled with Middle East tensions driving oil prices higher (WTI ~$94-105/bbl) and Treasury yields up (10-year at 4.40%), alongside data like stronger-than-expected March Factory Orders and the Fed’s SLOOS signaling potential credit conditions; Barclays’ no-Fed-cuts 2026 call amid Iran war inflation risks bolstered the USD against majors, while stocks wavered with S&P/Nasdaq near records but Dow sagging on geopolitical oil shocks and yield pressure.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should concentrate on oil‑driven volatility linked to US–Iran developments around the Strait of Hormuz, renewed yen‑intervention risk around USD/JPY near 160, and AI‑led equity strength in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan; any fresh headlines on Middle‑East truces, coordinated FX defence, or megacap tech earnings will likely magnify intraday swings in energy, FX, and regional tech‑heavy indices.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (2:00 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (Feb Data)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is trading modestly lower today in thin markets due to the Golden Week holiday, hovering near 98.1–98.3 on the DXY after recovering from April’s weakness. The main focus is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision (expected to hike 25bps to 4.35%), which could strengthen the Australian dollar near its four-year high against the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is edging lower in early‑May 2026 trading, with spot prices hovering in the low‑4,600s USD per ounce and intraday moves confined to a narrow band around 4,580–4,630 USD, reflecting mild dollar strength and cautious positioning rather than a fundamental reversal. Despite this short‑term softness, the broader macro backdrop, ongoing geopolitical tensions, elevated fiscal deficits, and expectations of eventually looser monetary policy.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Cash Rate (4:30 am GMT)

RBA Monetary Policy Statement (4:30 am GMT)

RBA Rate Statement (4:30 am GMT)

RBA Press Conference (5:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar is trading near multi‑year highs versus the US dollar on Tuesday, 5th May 2026, as markets brace for a widely expected 25 bps RBA rate hike that would lift the cash rate to around 4.35% and extend the cycle of tightening amid persistent inflation and robust domestic conditions.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25-basis-point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
• Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
• January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
• The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
• Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
• Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
• Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
• Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
• Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

Employment Change q/q (10:45 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (10:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar on 5 May 2026 is consolidating after a recent rally, supported by tightening‑bias RBNZ expectations and a weaker US dollar, but capped by still‑modest domestic rate‑hike odds and persistent global risk swings, leaving the Kiwi in a narrow, range‑bound mode around the 0.583–0.5900 zone.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen showed limited activity amid Japan’s Golden Week holiday, with thin liquidity leading to volatile but contained movements in Asian trading sessions. The USD/JPY pair briefly strengthened as much as 0.8% to ¥155.72 before retracing, following last week’s suspected intervention where authorities reportedly spent around ¥5.4 trillion ($34.5 billion) to support the yen after it weakened past ¥160.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock ( 8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets remain volatile with WTI around $102-105/bbl and Brent at $113+, driven by US-Iran clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, including denied missile strikes on US vessels, Iranian shipping rules, and UAE port attacks disrupting nearly 20% of global supply while Trump launches ship escorts and OPEC+ modestly boosts output amid the UAE’s cartel exit.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 05 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 05/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.38%, Shanghai Composite up 0.11% Hang Seng up 1.90% ASX down 0.31%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,620.96 (-0.51%) Silver at $76.205 (-0.30%), Brent Oil at $108.46 (0.27%), WTI Oil at $101.81 (-0.09%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.384, UK 10-year yield at 4.9690, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0342

News & Data:

• (CHF) Retail Sales y/y 0.5%  to 0.6%  expected

Markets Update:

South Korean stocks climbed to a fresh record on Monday, extending April’s strong gains, as investors assessed ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States alongside Washington’s plan to reopen shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that efforts would begin to “free” ships stranded since the escalation of the Iran conflict. The initiative, named “Project Freedom,” is scheduled to start Monday (Middle East time) and will primarily focus on enabling civilian vessels from non-aligned countries to safely exit the contested waterway and resume normal operations.

According to U.S. Central Command, the mission will involve significant military support, including guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft across land and sea, advanced unmanned systems, and approximately 15,000 service personnel.

Oil prices edged lower following the announcement. West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery slipped 0.26% to $101.68 per barrel, while Brent crude futures declined 0.13% to $108.03.

In equity markets, South Korea’s Kospi surged 4.26%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.8%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, however, fell 0.28%. Markets in Japan and China remained closed due to public holidays.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures were largely unchanged Sunday night. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a modest decline.

Upcoming Events:

• 02:00 PM GMT – USD Factory Orders m/m

The post Monday 4th May 2026: Asian Markets Rally as South Korea Hits Record High Amid U.S. “Project Freedom” Initiative first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets saw mild gains with stocks edging higher, oil prices holding steady, and the yen stabilizing amid ongoing Middle East tensions and anticipation for upcoming data like the RBA policy and China services PMI. No major macroeconomic releases occurred precisely on May 4, but focus lingered on recent China manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.2 in April and scheduled indicators such as Hong Kong GDP, Indonesia GDP, and Korea CPI later in the week.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Financial markets are reacting to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and concerns over their impact on global trade and commodity prices. Oil prices are experiencing choppy trading as investors monitor plans for securing vessels caught in the regional conflict. Additionally, market participants are processing corporate developments, including earnings reports and concerns surrounding potential “psychological contagion” in private credit markets as flagged by Federal Reserve officials.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar exhibited stability with the DXY unchanged at 98.16, navigating a light economic calendar featuring consumer credit data, Fed currency valuations, and Treasury auctions amid ongoing Middle East tensions and post-FOMC Fed speak; recent yen interventions and Q1 GDP rebound at 2% provided context for range-bound trading near 98, with forecasts eyeing a dip to 97.83 by quarter-end as rate cut bets build.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is softer to start Monday, May 4, 2026, with the main theme being inflation worries and a cautious market waiting on U.S.-Iran peace-talk developments. Reuters said gold nudged lower as inflation concerns clouded the U.S. policy outlook, while spot-price coverage showed gold struggling around the $4,600 area, with short-term support near $4,605 and resistance around $4,625 to $4,642.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium earish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The ECB held its main refinancing rate at 2.15% at its April meeting, but policymakers signaled that they are “moving away” from the baseline scenario and left room for rate hikes from June onward, lifting the euro on expectations of up to three quarter‑point hikes by year‑end. Inflation data show euro‑area CPI at 3% year‑on‑year in April, the highest since September 2023 and well above the 2% target.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

Today the Swiss franc is trading on a firm footing as a safe‑haven asset, benefiting from a softer US dollar and ongoing global risk‑off sentiment, with USD/CHF near 0.78 and the franc broadly strong versus the euro and other majors; recent data show the franc up roughly 1.3% over the past month and around 4% over the last year, while the Swiss National Bank continues to monitor the situation for possible intervention to prevent an excessively strong currency.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound begins the week of May 4, 2026, exhibiting signs of caution as markets digest recent central bank policy decisions and navigate ongoing geopolitical and domestic economic pressures. While the currency held firm near multi-month highs toward the end of April following the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, analysts are increasingly concerned that the “peak pound” narrative may be fading as risks mount.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April is detailed yet, but consensus previews anticipated a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios with inflation peaking over 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline before easing below 2% in three years, or higher at 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (7:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is holding a modestly stronger tone today, trading around 1.358 per U.S. dollar (or roughly 0.735 USD per CAD), after extending recent gains driven by a resilient domestic manufacturing sector and supportive oil prices. Markets are still digesting last week’s jump in Canada’s manufacturing PMI to 53.3 in April, which signaled the fastest factory‑sector expansion in nearly four years and helped the loonie notch its fourth weekly gain in a row.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Today’s oil news is dominated by a tug-of-war between geopolitical supply risk and signs of price stabilization. The market had spiked sharply on fears of deeper disruption in the Middle East, but more recent trading shows a pullback as ceasefire hopes and diplomacy cooled the rally. Even so, the outlook stays highly sensitive to any new developments in US-Iran talks, Strait of Hormuz shipping, and OPEC+ supply policy.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Headlines on Middle East conflicts disrupting oil flows, such as the Strait of Hormuz closure, dominated, driving sharp oil price gains and heightened market volatility without major data releases. Energy commodities and related equities bore the brunt, while the USD gained on safe-haven flows, and indices like the Dow futures weakened amid recession fears; upcoming Treasury auctions and factory orders loom for Monday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Monday’s Asian session looks like a low-liquidity, headline-driven market, with China and Japan holidays reducing participation just as oil and geopolitical tensions remain the main macro forces. That combination usually means sharper-than-normal moves in USD/JPY, AUD/USD, energy-linked assets, and Asia equity futures if any fresh Middle East or OPEC-related headlines hit overnight.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is beginning the week on firmer footing, but it is still vulnerable to fresh moves in U.S. data, Fed commentary, and risk sentiment. If today’s numbers and Fed remarks reinforce the view that rates will stay elevated for longer, the dollar could extend its recovery; if they disappoint, the broader downtrend may reassert itself.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is starting the week with a mildly constructive tone after a volatile Friday, as lower oil prices and a softer U.S. dollar helped bullion recover from early losses tied to easing Iran-war inflation fears. The most important near-term driver today is whether risk appetite continues to improve and whether traders keep rotating away from the dollar, while gold remains sensitive to the next round of U.S. macro data and any fresh Middle East headlines.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar enters Monday in a strong but cautious position, trading near 0.72 and supported by sticky inflation, a firm labor market, and expectations of another RBA rate hike this week. The key issue for today is not a fresh domestic release, but whether markets keep bidding up AUD ahead of Tuesday’s policy decision, or pause to wait for the RBA statement and guidance

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25-basis-point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
• Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
• January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
• The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
• Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
• Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
• Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
• Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
• Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is in a fragile, consolidation phase after briefly pushing back above the 0.5900 level against the US dollar, as moderating risk‑off flows and a softer greenback have provided temporary support even though the underlying macro backdrop remains weak; the kiwi is still weighed down by lingering concerns over Middle‑East‑driven energy‑price spikes.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade in a climate of heightened sensitivity following suspected government intervention to support the currency late last week. The yen recently experienced significant volatility, surging by up to 3% on April 30th, its largest daily gain in over three years, after officials issued “final” warnings and were widely reported to have engaged in currency market operations to curb rapid depreciation.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Global oil prices are trading in the high‑100s USD/bbl range early on Monday, after a partial pullback from April’s four‑year highs above $120; the market remains tightly wound by the US–Iran conflict, a largely blocked Strait of Hormuz, and expectations of a large second‑quarter supply shock that could cut global output by several million barrels per day, even as the US and other governments signal continued use of strategic reserves and policy tools to cushion the impact on importers.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 97.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fiboancci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 95.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.44
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1808

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1631

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again

1st resistance: 1.2044

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 186.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 181.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 187.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8654

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8574
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8687
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3461

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3195
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3860
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 213.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 209.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 216.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7843

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7752
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7935
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 158.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 154.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 160.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                           

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3641

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance t, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3489

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3732

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 07151

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6980

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7284

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5926

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5774

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6079

Supporting reasons: Identified a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 49,687.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 47,747.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,477.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,805.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,332.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,451.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,992.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,762.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,451.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 80,504.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 74,641.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 85,026.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,618.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,201.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,785.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 87.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 73.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,661.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,367.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 48,62.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 4th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

It was a busy week again for financial markets, as geopolitical updates on the Gulf competed with a plethora of interest rate updates from key central banks, tier 1 data, and major corporate earnings updates to keep markets volatile.
It is slightly quieter on the macroeconomic front this week; however, big US employment numbers over the week, building up to the key Non-Farms data on Friday, will be a major focus alongside an anticipated rate hike from the RBA and more expected updates on the constantly changing situation in the Middle East.
Bank holiday markets could also contribute to market moves over the coming days, with several key financial centres having breaks throughout the week, which should see liquidity come at a premium in some key trading sessions.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It’s a quiet calendar start to the week on Monday, with some of the major centres on holiday again, which could add to exacerbated moves in thinner markets. There are only third-tier data releases scheduled across the three sessions, and we do hear from the Bank of Canada Governor later in the day; however, geopolitical updates are likely again to be the main catalyst for any moves.

Australian markets will be in focus on Tuesday, with the Reserve Bank of Australia set to update the market on its latest rate call, while both Chinese and Japanese markets are closed again. The London session will see an early focus on Swiss markets, with key CPI numbers due out, before we then hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde. US data for the week starts in earnest later in the day, with ISM Services PMI (exp 53.8), JOLTS Job Openings (exp 6.87mio), and New Home Sales (exp 668k) numbers all due out.

It’s an early start for data on Wednesday, with New Zealand Employment Change (exp +0.3% q/q) and Unemployment Rate (exp 5.4%) data due early in the session, before we then hear from RBNZ Governor Anna Breman. It’s a quiet calendar in the London session on Wednesday; however, we have more US employment numbers out soon after the New York open, with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (exp +90k), followed by the Canadian Ivey PMI (exp 49.9) data release. Later in the day, we again hear from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

There will be an initial focus on Kiwi markets again on Thursday, with RBNZ Governor Anna Breman testifying on the Monetary Policy Statement in Wellington early in the day. However, it is a much quieter day through the other trading sessions, with just the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims data (exp 203k) due out of the US later in the day, set to trouble the scorers.

It is Non-Farm Payroll Day on Friday, and it is a typical setup for the big US employment data, with very little scheduled in the preceding two trading sessions. Canadian Employment Change (exp 2.1k) and Unemployment Rate (exp 6.7%) numbers are due out alongside the big US data – Non-Farm Employment Change (exp +60k), Average Hourly Earnings (exp +0.3% m/m), and Unemployment Rate (exp 4.3%) – and traders expect to see plenty of volatility around the release. Later in the session, the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (exp 49.3) and Inflation Expectations (last 4.7%) numbers are also released; however, expect the jobs numbers to dominate sentiment into the weekend.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 04 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Mixed Day for Markets to Close out the Week – Nasdaq up 0.9%
US markets delivered a mixed finish to end the week, as investors continued to digest an ongoing stream of macroeconomic, central bank, and geopolitical developments. The tech sector remained a key driver of performance, with the Nasdaq climbing 0.89% to 25,114, while the S&P 500 added 0.29% to close at 7,230. In contrast, the Dow Jones underperformed, slipping 0.31% to 49,499. In FX markets, the US dollar edged modestly higher, with the Dollar Index up 0.16% to 98.21, stabilising after the prior session’s sharp, intervention-led weakness. Treasury markets were relatively subdued, with the 2-year yield ticking up 0.9 basis points to 3.877%, while the 10-year yield was little changed, easing slightly by 0.1 basis points to 4.370%. Commodities saw some retracement, particularly in energy markets. Brent crude fell 2.02% to $108.17, while WTI declined 2.98% to $101.91, as optimism surrounding a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East weighed on prices. Gold was largely unchanged on the session, slipping just 0.08% to $4,614.21.

Big Moves Ahead for Oil Today
It’s not exactly a tough call to make given the moves we have seen in oil over the past few weeks, but the latest update from President Trump over the weekend really could see oil prices move 10%+ in either direction, depending on how the situation in the Strait of Hormuz plays out. The update lacked details, but a commitment to assist countries in moving their ships through the blockaded strait could test the current ceasefire in the Middle East in the coming sessions. If we see the start of traffic increase under US protection, then we should see oil prices fall—and fall hard. However, if the Iranians look to oppose this move and strike at those tankers or the US Navy, then we could see full military operations resume in short order, which would lead to a sharp move north for oil prices and probably a swift challenge of recent highs. Noting that President Trump has received Iran’s latest proposal over the weekend and has advised that he feels it is not acceptable could see some skewing of options towards topside moves.

Geopolitics to Dominate First Trading Day of the Week
Looking ahead, market conditions are expected to be quieter in terms of liquidity, with Japan, China, and the UK all observing public holidays today. Despite a relatively light economic calendar, geopolitical developments remain firmly in focus. Reports that President Trump has indicated the US will begin facilitating traffic through the Strait of Hormuz today are likely to keep markets sensitive to incoming headlines, particularly in oil markets. In terms of scheduled events, the only notable release comes in the US session, with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem set to speak towards the end of the day when he testifies before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance in Ottawa, which could see some moves in the loonie.

The post General Market Analysis – 04/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.