Monday 18th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review

430595 May 18, 2026 16:01 ICMarkets Market News

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 99.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 97.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fiboancci retracement that aligns with the 50% Fiboancci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1669

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1480

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again

1st resistance: 1.1808

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 186.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 181.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 187.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8687

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8654
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8767
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3461

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3192
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3635
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 212.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 209.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 213.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7835

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7764
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7936
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 157.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 155.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 160.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3699

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3578

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3859

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7187

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7104

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7278

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5853

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5752

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5965

Supporting reasons: Identified a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 48,824.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 47,747.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,477.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,805.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,332.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,451.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 7,175.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,013.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,496.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 78,616.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 74,631.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 81,867.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,200.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1,983.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,424.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 87.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 73.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,629.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,367.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 48,62.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 99.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 97.87

1st resistance: 100.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1669

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1480

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again

1st resistance: 1.1808

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 186.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 181.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 187.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8687

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8654
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8767
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3461

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3192
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3635
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 212.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 209.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 213.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7835

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7764
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7936
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 157.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 155.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 160.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3699

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3578

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3859

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7187

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7104

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7278

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5853

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5752

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5965

Supporting reasons: Identified a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 48,824.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 47,747.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,477.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,805.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,332.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,451.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 7,175.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,013.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,496.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 78,616.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 74,631.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 81,867.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,200.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1,983.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,424.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 87.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 73.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,629.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,367.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 48,62.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Monday 18th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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Monday 18th May 2026: Asia Markets Fall as Trump’s Iran Warning Sparks Oil Supply Fears

430594 May 18, 2026 16:01 ICMarkets Market News

Global Markets:

Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.77%, Shanghai Composite down 0.22% Hang Seng down 1.39% ASX down 1.38%
Commodities : Gold at $4,540.37 (-0.49%) Silver at $75.603 (-2.50%), Brent Oil at $111.31 (1.89%), WTI Oil at $103.29 (2.25%)
Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.628, UK 10-year yield at 5.1830, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1535

News & Data:

(CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m 3.0% to 3.5% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets declined Monday after renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattled investors. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran to “get moving, FAST,” fueling concerns about a deeper conflict and possible disruptions to global oil supplies.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said “the Clock is Ticking” for Iran and warned there “won’t be anything left” if swift action was not taken. He did not clarify what measures he expected from Tehran or what consequences might follow.

Oil prices jumped more than 1% amid fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude futures rose 1.9% to $111.34 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.17% to $107.71.

Regional markets reacted negatively. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.32%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.92%, and the Topix fell 0.77%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.49%, while Taiwan’s Taiex declined 1.02%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.15%, though the Kosdaq fell 1.65%.

Investors also monitored rising bond yields and inflation concerns. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield jumped above 2.79%.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures were mostly flat after Wall Street ended lower Friday, pressured by rising Treasury yields and weakness in technology shares, including Nvidia, Intel, AMD, and Micron.

Upcoming Events:

08:00 AM GMT – EUR Italian Trade Balance

The post Monday 18th May 2026: Asia Markets Fall as Trump’s Iran Warning Sparks Oil Supply Fears first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 18 May 2026

430588 May 18, 2026 15:40 ICMarkets Market News

Markets closed out another busy week on the back foot on Friday, as rising yields across most global markets led to a souring of what had been positive sentiment for most of the week. Inflationary concerns have been building since the conflict in the Middle East started, and data this week, particularly out of the US, saw markets start to react as the week wore on.

On the geopolitical front, President Trump’s trip to China concluded with little in the way of concrete updates for investors, despite plenty of positive rhetoric, while hopes of the ceasefire in the Middle East between the US and Iran continuing seem to be fading with each passing day.

The week ahead will see focus remain strongly on geopolitical updates in general, and the Middle East in particular, whilst on the data front there is little out of the US, although Fed Meeting Minutes should provide interesting reading midway through the week. However, we do have some key updates due from other major economies that should see moves in their respective markets.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It’s a quiet start to the calendar week on Monday, with nothing of note scheduled across all three trading sessions. Canadian markets are closed for a bank holiday, which could affect liquidity later in the day, but overall expect market moves to be dominated by geopolitical updates.

There is little on the calendar in the Asian session on Tuesday, but we do have the first of some key UK data this week out shortly after the London open, with employment numbers being released. The initial focus in the New York session will be on Canadian markets, with the CPI data due out, while later in the day US Pending Home Sales numbers are scheduled.

The Asian session will see attention move to Chinese markets midway through the day, with the Loan Prime Rate updates due. The London session sees more key UK data out early in the day, this time the CPI and PPI data. The New York session has little in the way of data due out again, although the Weekly Crude Oil Inventory data will draw some attention. However, traders are expecting to see volatility towards the end of the session when the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released.

It’s the busiest day of the week in terms of data releases on Thursday, with Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers out from a variety of jurisdictions including Australia, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US. Australian markets will be in focus early in the day, with key employment data due out, while the New York session sees the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers out later in the day.

It’s a relatively quiet calendar day to close out the trading week on Friday, although Retail Sales data out of both the UK and Canada may see some moves in their local markets in their respective sessions. Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data is also out in the US session. However, again traders are expecting news-led flows to dictate market moves into the weekend.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 18 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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General Market Analysis – 18/05/26

430587 May 18, 2026 15:40 ICMarkets Market News

US Stocks Hit Hard into the Weekend – Nasdaq down 1.55%

Global equity markets finished sharply lower into Friday’s close as investors reacted to mounting inflation concerns and another aggressive move higher in global bond yields. Risk sentiment deteriorated throughout the session, with all three major US indices ending firmly in the red as rising yields continued to weigh heavily on growth and technology stocks.

The Dow Jones fell 1.07% to close at 49,526, while the S&P 500 lost 1.24% to finish at 7,408. The Nasdaq underperformed once again, sliding 1.54% to 26,225 as higher rate expectations pressured the tech sector.

US Treasury yields surged higher across the curve, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve may need to keep policy restrictive for longer amid persistent inflation risks. The US 2-year yield climbed 5.2 basis points to 4.069%, while the benchmark 10-year yield jumped 11.2 basis points to close at 4.593%, comfortably above the key 4.5% level.

The move in US yields helped underpin broad dollar strength, with the DXY rising 0.46% to 99.27. USD/JPY continued to push higher despite ongoing intervention threats from Japanese authorities, as yield differentials remained firmly in favour of the greenback.

Commodity markets were dominated by geopolitical concerns, with oil prices rallying strongly again as hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East continued to fade. Brent crude rose 3.35% to settle at $109.26 per barrel, while WTI gained 4.20% to $105.42. Gold lost ground again on the back of the stronger dollar.

Gold Losing its Lustre to the Stronger Dollar

Gold came under heavy selling pressure on Friday as the combination of higher yields and a stronger US dollar triggered another wave of selling. The precious metal fell 2.40% to $4,540.08, breaking through a recent support level in the process. XAUUSD had started the day just above a strong trendline support level on the daily chart around $4,620.00, but further dollar buying soon saw that level break, and it was generally one-way traffic after that for the majority of the day. It found some support just above the key $4,500 level on Friday, where it had also found support on two previous occasions this month, and a clean break through there in the coming sessions could see a much deeper correction as the week rolls on, especially if US yields and the dollar remain supported. The next target on the downside is the 200-day moving average around $4,347, with any further weakness likely to challenge the annual low of $4,097.99.

Quiet Calendar Monday to Kick off the Trading Week

It is a relatively quiet start to the week on the economic calendar today, leaving markets likely to remain heavily driven by bond market moves and geopolitical headlines. Asian equities are expected to open under pressure following Friday’s sharp selloff on Wall Street, and we have so far been blessed with a relatively quiet start to the trading week, with no significant gapping or moves on the early FX open. There is a raft of Chinese data due out midway through the Asian session today, with Industrial Production data (exp. +6.0% y/y) the likely highlight, but traders are not expecting much market impact. There is little else due out in terms of data releases or central bank updates today, and liquidity may be affected later in the day by a Canadian bank holiday, so newswires are likely to be the main catalyst for any significant moves in the market.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 18/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 May 2026

430584 May 18, 2026 15:00 ICMarkets Market News

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Inflation and consumer‑spending data plus Fed commentary, which pushed front‑end and intermediate Treasury yields higher (raising rate expectations) and supported a firmer dollar; equities were mixed with retail and consumer names reacting to spending prints while tech/AI sectors tracked earnings flow, and oil moved on continuing Middle East/supply headlines that benefited energy stocks and pushed crude prices higher.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus on whether the “trade‑thaw” story from the Trump‑Xi summit continues to support equities and a firmer yuan, on how China’s April industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment data shape perceptions of domestic demand, and on any renewed hawkish geopolitical or tariff signals that could quickly reverse the current risk‑on tone; FX, regional EM flows, and commodity‑linked sectors will be particularly sensitive to the interplay between US‑China rhetoric, Chinese data, and global risk sentiment.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is trading moderately firm but range‑bound, with the Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around the mid‑98s after a strong five‑day advance into the weekend, fueled by higher US Treasury yields, a resilient US jobs report, and lingering Middle‑East‑related safe‑haven demand. Markets are still pricing in a modest chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026, which underpins the greenback, even as equity‑market strength and occasional risk‑on moves cap its upside.

Central Bank Notes:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold on Monday is holding in a tight, elevated range around the mid‑$4,500s per ounce, balancing safe‑haven demand from Middle East tensions and lingering inflation worries against a firmer U.S. dollar and higher bond yields that cap gains. Analysts broadly expect prices to stay supported near current levels over 2026, thanks to central‑bank buying and strategic diversification away from the dollar, even as some forecasts warn of a potential pullback toward the low‑$4,000s if key support breaks or risk‑on sentiment strengthens.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar has been trading near 0.7200 AUD/USD, holding close to four-year highs after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike to 4.35% at its May 2026 monetary policy meeting. This hawkish shift comes as Australia’s annual inflation remains elevated at 4.6% YoY (March 2026), well above the RBA’s 2–3% target, prompting the central bank to tighten policy to combat persistent price pressures.

Central Bank Notes:

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

On Monday, the New Zealand Dollar is trading near the lower end of its recent range against the US Dollar, underpinned by a stronger‑than‑expected Fed policy outlook and softer domestic fundamentals, which have entrenched the Kiwi’s recent weekly losses and kept NZD/USD close to 0.585–0.590.

Central Bank Notes:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen weakened toward 158 per dollar as of mid-May 2026, falling for multiple consecutive sessions amid a stronger US Dollar fueled by hotter US inflation and rising expectations for Fed rate hikes. Although the Bank of Japan signaled potential additional rate hikes as soon as June and Japanese officials have warned against excessive volatility (with intervention risk capping some USD/JPY gains), the fundamental interest rate differential continues to pressure the Yen lower.

Central Bank Notes:

The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Brent and WTI have recently been supported by fears over the Strait of Hormuz and wider supply disruptions, but there have also been pullbacks whenever ceasefire or diplomatic headlines ease those risks. Reuters also reported that the U.S. EIA now sees Middle East supply losses peaking at 10.8 million bpd in May, which reinforces the market’s focus on disruption risk.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 May 2026

430583 May 18, 2026 15:00 ICMarkets Market News

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Weaker-than-expected China April activity data and a fresh surge in geopolitical risk, producing a clear split between pressure on Chinese and Hong Kong equities and strength in oil. The headline losers were growth-sensitive equities and risk assets, while the headline beneficiaries were crude futures and related energy exposures.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Geopolitical news (notably U.S.–Iran tensions) and rising oil prices are the immediate risk drivers this morning, while a packed economic calendar features flash PMIs across Europe and the U.S., Germany’s Ifo and GfK consumer gauges, UK activity and inflation signals, and U.S. regional Fed indexes plus housing and consumer-sentiment reads will provide fresh directional cues for equities, FX, and rates.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. dollar is strengthening broadly amid rising Treasury yields and fading Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, continuing a five-day winning streak that positions it for its largest weekly rise in two months. Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for the pound versus the dollar, with a projection to fall toward 1.320.

Central Bank Notes:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

As of Monday, gold is trading in the mid‑4,500s USD per ounce, consolidating after a strong early‑2026 rally and a subsequent 2‑percent+ correction, as a firmer U.S. dollar and higher real yields cap gains while persistent geopolitical risk and central‑bank buying cap the downside; the market is currently in a containment phase, with traders awaiting U.S. macro data and Fed‑policy signals to decide whether renewed expectations for rate cuts will reignite a fresh leg higher for bullion later this year.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro experienced modest weakness today as traders engaged in profit-taking following its recent three-month peak, pushing the EUR/USD pair down to 1.1617 and extending its losing streak against the dollar to three sessions. While the monthly trend shows a 1.45% decline, the euro maintains a solid 3.35% gain year-over-year, suggesting the current pullback is a short-term correction rather than a fundamental shift.

Central Bank Notes:

The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is currently strengthening amid heightened global uncertainty and rising inflation in Switzerland, which has pushed consumer prices to 0.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding the SNB’s 0.5% forecast and prompting futures markets to price in a potential 25-basis-point rate hike by late 2026. Despite SNB Governor Martin Schlegel’s hint at possible currency interventions or a return to negative rates, the franc’s safe-haven appeal, bolstered by geopolitical tensions including US-Iran concerns, continues to support its value against the dollar and euro, with USD/CHF hovering around 0.78.

Central Bank Notes:

At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound is trading modestly stronger versus the dollar and broadly stable against the euro, lifted by a weaker Greenback and lingering expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates relatively supportive rather than turning aggressively dovish. At the same time, the currency remains vulnerable to any downside surprises in UK growth or inflation data.

Central Bank Notes:

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.
Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is trending weaker against the US dollar, with USD/CAD anticipated to rally toward 1.3825 before potentially rebounding downward toward 1.3245 if the bearish trend persists. The loonie’s decline is driven by a combination of risk-averse market flows, falling oil prices, and a stronger US dollar fueled by rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions involving Iran and China.

Central Bank Notes:

The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil surged on 18 May 2026 as renewed Middle East tensions and concerns about shut-ins and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz pushed benchmark Brent above $110 and WTI above roughly $106, while regional crude grades and the OPEC basket also climbed; the U.S. EIA and market analysts say inventories remain tight and production outages are keeping a sustained risk premium on prices, leaving substantial upside risk if the geopolitical situation does not ease.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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Ex-Dividend 18/05/2026

430556 May 15, 2026 17:40 ICMarkets Market News

The post Ex-Dividend 18/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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Friday 15th May 2026: Asian Markets Slip as Trump-Xi Talks Weigh on Investor Sentimentv

430553 May 15, 2026 14:00 ICMarkets Market News