Articles

• June US Empire Fed manufacturing survey -16.0 vs -5.5 expected
• Trump: I’m sure we can work something out with Canada
• Canada’s LeBlanc says he’s confident in progress on deal with US
• Pound shrugs off news that final UK-US trade deal near
• Netanyahu: Killing Iran’s supreme leader would ‘end the conflict’
• French and German and British foreign ministers to hold phone call with Iran minister
• U.S. Treasury auctions off 13 million of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.942%
• A new batch of missiles are being launched from Iran toward Israel
• Iran preparing for largest missile attack on Israel
• Israel bombed Iranian state TV
• Iran asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to ask US to press Israel to agree to a ceasefire
• Iran signals it wants to de-escalate hostilities – report
• Canada May housing starts 279.5K vs 245K expected

Markets:

• Gold down $48 to $3384
• US 10-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.45%
• WTI crude oil down $1.67 to $71.31
• S&P 500 up 0.9%
• NZD leads, JPY lags

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks finished below the highs but still scored strong gains across the board:

Closing changes:

• S&P 500 +0.9%
• Nasdaq Comp +1.5%
• DJIA +1.1%
• Russell 2000 +1.2%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.3%

The Nasdaq is within striking distance of the June high and the war in the Middle East has barely dissuaded the bulls.

Travel and semiconductor names were particularly strong today with AMD up 8.7%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD has risen more than 30 pips from the lows of the day as the US dollar rebounds.

It’s part of a broader strengthening in the US dollar that’s also boosted USD/JPY to the highs of the day. It comes on higher US long-dated yields and uncertainty around outcomes from the war in the Middle East.

Republicans are also fighting over Trump’s budget bill and markets will be closely watching tomorrow’s US retail sales report for signs of consumer weakness.

Trump is in Alberta meeting with G7 leaders this week in his first foreign trip. So far signs of progress on trade have been minimal and Trump’s comments today suggest he remains enamoured with tariffs.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Says he is confident Canada is making progress on a deal with the US

There were hopes for a deal before the G7 but that hasn’t come to fruition. Obviously there are some snags but we’ll see if they can be sorted out.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY is nearing the Asian high after non-stop bidding in the back half of US trading. The pair is up nearly a full cent from the lows and 55 pips on the day now.

The rally comes as US Treasury yields — especially at the long end — ratchet to the highs of the day. Some of the positive sentiment also extends from stock markets and the overall risk trade, which is undeterred by the war in the Middle East.

Eyes are also on Congress as a July 4 goal for Trump’s big, beautiful budget bill looks increasingly out of reach. Republicans are squabbling over SALT deductions and fiscal savings in the bill.

Zooming out, today’s move is mostly insignificant as the pair consolidating within the range of the past three weeks. There is something brewing though with a series of higher lows and lower highs, creating a wedge that could dramatically break out.

I would guess this won’t take long to break out.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The pound was unmoved on a report that the final US-UK trade deal will be signed in the coming days, according to Reuters sources.

The report matches initial comments from both sides on a deal that will cover beef, steel, autos and ethanol. Cable had been higher on the day ahead of the news and remains up 33 pips to 1.3597.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Oil jumped early, then faded and fell more than $3 at the lows in early New York trade. It’s since rebounded somewhat after fresh Israeli strikes in Iranian threats.

It settled $1.21 lower at $71.77 per barrel.

How it goes will depend on what happens next in the Middle East but no barrels (or very few) have been lost so far.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

SocGen sees a faster path to 1.20 in EUR/USD as the dollar weakens amid renewed tariff threats, rising geopolitical tensions, and diminishing haven demand. With EUR/USD breaking above 1.15 for the first time since 2021 and holding that level through risk-off events, structural USD headwinds are mounting ahead of the Fed’s June meeting.

Key Points:

Geopolitics and Trade Escalation:

• President Trump announced the US will notify partners of new unilateral tariffs within two weeks, reviving trade war fears ahead of the 9 July deadline.

• The announcement triggered a sharp USD selloff, pushing EUR/USD to a 3-year high above 1.15.

Diminished Risk-Off Demand for USD:

• Despite heightened geopolitical risk—specifically Israeli strikes on Iran—EUR/USD remained above 1.15.

• The market’s reluctance to buy USD in traditional risk-off conditions signals a weakening of its safe-haven appeal.

Fed Outlook Adds to USD Pressure:

• EUR/USD is closely tracking the Bloomberg Fed speak index.

• A dovish tone next week amid slowing inflation would add to USD downside risks, particularly as growth expectations erode due to tariff fears.

Capital Flow Implications:

• The tariff narrative and policy uncertainty are accelerating outflows from USD assets.

• The shift in sentiment is fueling demand for alternatives, particularly the euro.

Conclusion:

With EUR/USD breaking above 1.15 and holding that level in the face of geopolitical shocks, SocGen now sees 1.20 as attainable sooner than previously expected. Trade uncertainty, a softening Fed stance, and fading USD safe-haven demand form a potent mix for continued euro strength.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

“It’s not going to escalate the conflict, it’s going to end the conflict,” Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu told ABC News in an interview after he was asked about reports that US President Donald Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to kill the supreme leader out of concern it would intensify the Iran-Israel showdown.

I’m not sure what the calculus is on that statement but I’d hate to see what the blowback would be on a failed assassination.

Meanwhile, Iran says key Israeli military and intelligence centres are on its target list and threatens a “proportionate response” in the coming hours.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• High-yield 4.942%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.942%
• Tail 0.0 basis points versus six month average of 0.1 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.68X vs six month average of 2.59X
• DIrects (domestic demand) 19.9% versus six month average of 18.1%
• Indirects(proxy for international demand 66.7% versus six month average of 67.2%
• Dealers (they take the residual) 13.4% versus six month average of 14.8%.

AUCTION GRADE: C+

Close to a C, but feeling generous.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

French, German and British foreign ministers to hold a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister on Monday evening in an attempt to slow the progress of the aggressions.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.