Articles

• Japan finmin Kato says recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves (referring to the yen)
• Silver hits record above $52.70 as squeeze intensifies; Goldman warns of volatility
• Chinese media defends rare earth controls, accuses U.S. of abuse of export restrictions
• Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking Tuesday. Bowman, Waller, Collins also on deck.
• JPMorgan to double Asia assets to $600 billion by 2030, targets $1 trillion long term
• RBA says Australian dollar near equilibrium, not adding to tighter financial conditions
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1021 (vs. estimate at 7.1353)
• China commerce ministry urges the US to correct its wrong practices
• RBA minutes – Signals patience on rate cuts, says policy still slightly restrictive
• Australian business confidence jumps to+7 in September, from +4 in August
• Bank of America sees gold at US$5,000, silver at US$65 by 2026 amid US policy risks
• PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1353 – Reuters estimate
• USD/SGD not a lot changed after the as expected Monetary Authority of Singapore hold
• MAS leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected
• JPMorgan blames leveraged ETFs for worsening Wall Street selloff, warns of more to come
• China has officially begun levying port fees on US ships
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand to ease LVR restrictions
• UK retail sales slow as households brace for Reeves budget, Barclays and BRC say
• Staunch Trump ally Taylor Greene rings alarm bells on tariffs, deports, harm to business
• Rabobank expects AUD/USD to stay near 0.65 short term, rise to 0.68 over 12 months
• Goldman: Trump trade policy now key driver of US inflation. See tariffs delaying Fed cuts.
• New Zealand data: September Card Spending Retail -0.5% m/m (prior +0.6%)
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 13 Oct: US stocks claw back some declines. USD rises.
• BofA says AI boom unlike dot-com bubble; Nvidia remains top chip pick
• Australia – NAB Business Survey in focus as inflation pressures test RBA outlook
• US major indices claw back some of the declines
• Goldman Sachs warns U.S. shutdown could be one of the longest in history

Singapore’s economy expanded faster than expected in the third quarter, even as the central bank cautioned that growth will likely moderate in 2026.

• Gross domestic product rose 2.9% year-on-year in the three months to September, topping forecasts for a 1.9% gain but slowing from a revised 4.5% in Q2.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept policy unchanged, maintaining the current rate of appreciation in the S$NEER band, with the width and midpoint left steady.

In Australia, business confidence improved, with the NAB index rising to +7 in September from +4 in August, while business conditions held steady as stronger sales and profitability offset softer employment.

Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting signalled patience on further rate cuts, with policymakers saying monetary policy remains slightly restrictive but that previous easing is supporting housing activity.
The bank said the Australian dollar’s modest appreciation, driven by widening yield differentials, is in line with fundamentals and not adding to financial tightening.

In China, the Commerce Ministry confirmed it had notified the U.S. in advance of its new rare earth export controls and held working-level talks on Monday under existing trade consultation channels. Beijing criticised Washington for “imposing new restrictions while seeking dialogue” and urged it to act with sincerity, reiterating that cooperation benefits both sides while confrontation harms both.

Major currencies traded in narrow ranges, while gold and silver rocketed to fresh record highs as precious-metals momentum continued amid tight physical markets and strong speculative interest.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -1.2%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng)+0.44 %
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.64%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) +0.03%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Beijing has accused the United States of damaging the atmosphere for trade talks by repeatedly tightening restrictions on Chinese exports, even as China insists its own new export control measures on rare earths are lawful and transparent.

According to the Global Times, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said Beijing had notified Washington in advance of the latest export control actions through established bilateral channels. “In contrast, the U.S. has long overstretched the concept of national security, abused export controls and imposed discriminatory measures against China,” the spokesperson said, adding that these moves “severely harm China’s interests and undermine the atmosphere of bilateral economic consultations.”

The ministry said China’s new rare earth and related materials controls were aimed at improving its domestic export management system and were not an outright export ban. Companies meeting compliance standards would still be able to obtain licenses.

Responding to reports that U.S. officials were unable to reach Chinese counterparts by phone after the measures were announced, MOFCOM said both sides remain in contact under the China–U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, and a working-level meeting took place on Monday.

Reiterating Beijing’s long-held stance on trade and tariff tensions, the ministry said: “We will fight if we must fight. Our doors are open if the U.S. wants to talk. The two countries share extensive common interests and vast cooperation potential. Cooperation benefits both, while confrontation harms both.”

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China’s strong defence of its rare earth export controls underscores mounting tension in the global technology and supply-chain landscape. While Beijing insists licenses will continue for compliant exporters, the rhetoric highlights a harder line that could unsettle commodity and manufacturing markets.

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Earlier:

• China commerce ministry urges the US to correct its wrong practices

From that linked post: The key take away here is that the two sides held talks on Monday! While tensions might be high, its not stopping some progress being made it would seem.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China commerce ministry:

• Responds to US saying it has proposed to talk with China after rare earths restrictions
• US cannot have talks while threatening to intimidate and introduce new restrictions, which is not right way to get along with China
• Urges US side to correct its ‘wrong practices’ as soon as possible, show sincerity in talks with China
• Two sides have maintained communication under the framework of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism
• On Monday, also held working-level talks with the US

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia NAB Business Survey

Business conditions 8

• prior was 7 but revised to 8

Business confidence 7

• previous 4

–

Australian business conditions held steady in September, as stronger sales and profits were offset by weaker employment, according to the latest National Australia Bank (NAB) survey.

NAB’s index of business conditions was unchanged at +8, while business confidence rose three points to +7, sitting just above its long-run average. “Both business confidence and conditions appear to be consolidating slightly above trend after improving through mid-2025,” said NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld.

Sales rose three points to +16, and profitability edged up to +6, continuing an upward trend since May — a positive sign for future hiring. However, forward orders fell three points, slipping below average into negative territory.

Input costs ticked higher, while retail price growth accelerated to 0.7% from 0.5%, and labour cost growth eased slightly to 1.5%. The data suggest underlying resilience in business activity even as firms remain cautious amid an uncertain inflation and rate outlook.

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The steady NAB survey suggests underlying resilience in Australia’s business sector despite soft hiring and weaker forward orders. Modest price pressures and improving confidence support the RBA’s cautious policy stance, reinforcing expectations for steady rates near term.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China has officially begun levying port fees on US ships. CCTV with the report.

More:

• April 17 is the starting date of the annual billing cycle for the fees

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK consumer spending slowed in September as households turned cautious ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s budget and faced rising energy bills, surveys from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Barclays showed.

The BRC said total retail sales rose 2.3% year-on-year, the weakest since May and down from 3.1% in August, while like-for-like sales eased to 2.0%. “Rising inflation and a potentially taxing budget is weighing on the minds of many households planning their Christmas spending,” said BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson.

Barclays reported a 0.7% annual fall in card spending after a 0.5% rise in August. Essential spending dropped for a fifth month, while non-essential spending growth was the weakest in over a year.

Despite improving wage growth lifting confidence to a four-year high, nearly half of consumers said they were adjusting spending ahead of the budget, with one-third saving more. Retailers, meanwhile, face uncertainty over business rates and subdued demand heading into the “Golden Quarter.”

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The weaker retail and spending data point to cooling domestic demand just weeks before Chancellor Reeves unveils her budget. Softer consumption could ease near-term inflation pressure but raises growth risks heading into the winter, reinforcing expectations for a cautious Bank of England.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a vocal Trump ally and prominent America First conservative, has voiced rare criticism of the administration’s trade and immigration policies, warning that some measures could backfire on U.S. businesses and households.

US politics site ‘The Hill’ carries the article. In summary:

Speaking on a podcast, Greene said she is hearing growing concern from manufacturers about the impact of tariffs, which she believes are raising costs and complicating production. “Major manufacturing companies are saying we’re having a problem with these tariffs,” she said, adding that ordinary Americans have yet to see much relief from inflationary pressures. “That should be the focus — not helping crypto donors,” she added, in a pointed reference to priorities within Trump’s policy circle.

Greene also cautioned that an overly aggressive deportation policy could harm the economy by worsening labour shortages. “We have to do something about labour,” she said, “but that needs to be a smarter plan than just rounding up every single person and deporting them.”

Her remarks mark a rare instance of intra-party dissent within the pro-Trump camp, underscoring tension between economic populism and business pragmatism as the administration balances tariffs, immigration enforcement, and domestic growth goals.

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Greene’s comments add a political wrinkle to tariff policy, suggesting fractures within the America First bloc. Any widening dissent among congressional allies could pressure the administration to moderate trade or immigration measures seen as inflationary or disruptive to U.S. industry.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand electronic retail card spending

• dipped 0.5% in September m/m
• +1.0% y/y

The electronic cards data covers about 68 percent of core retail sales in the country, and is the main measure of monthly retail activity.

–

Kiwi $ little changed, NZD/USD circa 0.5725

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs says the latest round of U.S. tariffs is adding notable stickiness to inflation, warning that the cumulative impact could keep core PCE inflation around 3.0% year-on-year by December 2025, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

In its updated forecast, Goldman estimates that tariffs already implemented this year have raised core PCE prices by 0.44 percentage points, while new and proposed duties are expected to add another 0.6 percentage points over the coming year. The combined effect would slow the pace of disinflation and complicate the Fed’s policy outlook.

The bank said much of the inflation impulse reflects firms passing through higher import costs in goods categories exposed to China and Europe. Although broader domestic inflation pressures are easing—helped by cooling labour markets and stabilising shelter costs—trade policy is now acting as a countervailing force.

Goldman’s economists noted that without these tariff effects, core PCE would likely be closer to the mid-2% range, suggesting that trade tensions, rather than overheating demand, are behind the persistence of price growth heading into 2026.

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Goldman’s forecast suggests inflation could stay above target longer than markets expect, challenging hopes for faster Fed easing. Sticky core PCE readings driven by tariffs may reinforce caution among policymakers and weigh on Treasuries and rate-cut bets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• US major indices claw back some of the declines
• Goldman Sachs warns U.S. shutdown could be one of the longest in history
• Crude oil futures settle at $59.49
• More Paulson: Sees labor supply and demand for workers declining at about the same pace
• Fed Paulson: Favors gradual path of rate cuts over this year into next
• Ukraine’s Zelensky to meet Trump in Washington on Friday
• Major European indices close higher led the German DAX
• Trump: Would love to take off Iran sanctions, if they talk
• Gold tops $4100 for the first time.
• Silver trades to a new record high
• Israeli defense minister Katz: Any delay in releasing bodies will be a gross violation
• Can peace beget peace and the trend for it continue?
• While the US will continue to be void of data, Fedspeak and earnings will be the focus
• Peace. Hostages are released. The USD is mixed. Stocks are higher
• US Bessent: 100% tariffs doesn’t have to happen
• More from US Bessent: Trump’s Friday social media post turned the tables
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steadies alongside risk mood, gold jumps

US stocks closed higher – erasing some of the declines but not all. The gains can be attributed to less confrontational remarks from Trump to China over the weekend, Trump said the U.S. wants to “help China, not hurt it,” adding that tariffs “don’t have to happen,” while Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirmed that the U.S. remains open to talks. Maybe. Maybe not.

China’s export numbers today showed that they can export to other nations other than the US (or is that circumventing the tariffs through tariff arbitrage?). Let’s say China is still a wild card but the market’s fear was allayed today. PS the hostage release and hopes for lasting peace were also a feel good story that helped give equity markets a boost.

Nevertheless, tomorrow will be a key day for the stock market as the Nasdaq is closing the day, near the 100 hour MA at 22695 (closed at 22694).

The USD rose vs most of the currencies today.

EURUSD: The EURUSD saw the pair move briefly above the 100 hour MA in early trading, only to fall to swing area between 1.1548 to 1.15612 and find willing buyers. The price bias is to the downside with the 100 hour MA at 1.1602 the key resistance target and bias defining level.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD also stayed below its 100 hour MA (currently at 1.3355) but is closing within a swing area between 1.3323 and 1.3341. Moving below the lower extreme and staying below will be more bearish. Moving above and also above the 100 hour MA at 1.3353 would be more bullish.

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose today and tested its higher 100 hour MA at 152.457. The price is trading at 152.19 currently. Staying below keeps the seller in play but there is more work to do to the downside if the sellers are to take more control.

Fed’s Anna Paulson also spoke for the first time since becoming Philadelphia Fed President, striking a dovish but balanced tone—emphasizing that policy should prioritize full employment and price stability, with gradual rate cuts expected through this year and into next.

The price of gold and silver both moved to new highs The US debt market was closed due to the Columbus Day holiday.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The September NAB Business Survey will be in focus today week as analysts gauge whether the recent improvement in private-sector activity has continued into the final month of Q3. Both business confidence (August was +7) and business conditions (+4) remain close to their long-term averages, pointing to a steady—if unspectacular—backdrop for corporate activity.

Economists say the finer details of the report will matter just as much as the headline readings. The price and cost components will attract particular scrutiny after Australia’s latest inflation data came in hotter than expected. Any renewed upward movement in labour costs or purchase prices could signal that underlying price pressures are persisting, complicating the Reserve Bank of Australia’s path toward further easing. Conversely, softer cost trends would support expectations that inflation is cooling and that the RBA could maintain its easing bias heading into 2026.

The data is due at 0030 GMT / 2030 US Eastern time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs expects the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could become one of the most extensive and longest in history, warning that the economic hit will grow the longer it lasts.

In a research note, Goldman economist Phillips said the situation

• seems like it has a decent chance of going on for a while
• possibly extending for weeks
• and affecting all government agencies
• based on the way things feel right now, it could actually be one of the biggest shutdowns we’ve had

Phillips estimates that each week of closure will subtract roughly 0.11 percentage points from annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter, though output would likely rebound once the government reopens. However, he cautioned that a shutdown lasting beyond a few weeks could cause wider disruptions — delaying federal contracts, infrastructure projects, and new listings, as the Securities and Exchange Commission slows operations.

Despite those risks, markets have taken the standoff in stride. Goldman believes that’s partly because investors expect a political resolution and partly because the Federal Reserve remains in an easing cycle:

• Without new data, the Fed is still likely to cut again, the bank said

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Goldman’s warning underscores growing downside risks to U.S. growth if the government shutdown lingers. The note suggests GDP could take a hit each week the impasse continues, though markets appear unfazed — betting that the Fed will stay on track with further rate cuts even as economic data flow pauses.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.