Articles

Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang :

• talks with U.S. had involved in depth exchanges
• communication has been rational and candid
• two sides agreed a consensus on Geneva meeting
• Will report on framework to Leaders
• Hope Progress Here is conducive to increasing Trust Between China and U.S.
• Hope this injects positive Energy into World Economic Developments
• our communication has been professional, rational, in-depth and candid
• we hope progress achieved in London talks can be conducive for enhancing trust

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump will sign three resolutions on Thursday abolishing California’s electric vehicle sales mandates and diesel engine rules

US politics site Politico with the report.

more to come

I wonder if its personal? At least some of it.

Regardless, TSLA shareholders will be paying attention to this.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs expects tariffs to push up goods prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core inflation likely to rise even as pressures in labour, housing, and autos moderate.

• In Wednesday’s May CPI report, the bank forecasts a modest tariff-related impact, nudging core inflation up 0.05 percentage points to 0.25% month-on-month.
• Looking ahead, core inflation could climb to 3.5% by year-end, up from 2.8% in April.
• Most of the near-term inflation is expected to come from goods rather than services, with hotel and airfare prices projected to remain flat.

Earlier previews here:

• US CPI data due Wednesday, core expected just under 3% y/y
• BofA and Morgan Stanley expectations for the May US CPI report on Wednesday

Data due at 0830 US Eastern time:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Blackstone plans to invest up to $500 billion in Europe over the next decade, CEO Steve Schwarzman told Bloomberg, citing improving growth prospects amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.

• The firm has already deployed around US$100 bn in the U.K., including into data centres and logistics assets.

• European warehouse investments remain among Blackstone’s most profitable, with the company bullish on continued returns from the region.

• Outside Europe, Blackstone also sees strong potential in the Middle East, driven by the rapid expansion of cities like Dubai and Riyadh.

Info via Bloomberg on Tuesday ICYMI.

Firms are more closely examining investment ex-US, this another example./

Blackstone is one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, specialising in private equity, real estate, credit, and hedge fund investment strategies:

• firm manages over $1 trillion in assets globally
• invests across a wide range of sectors

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This idea has been floated multiple times over past years. Its getting a redo in the headlines again today.

• Sichuan province city Mianyang is considering a 2.5-day weekend
• businesses to close on Friday afternoons, along with Saturdays and Sundays
• Mianyang is the second-largest city in Sichuan province in terms of gross domestic product, it has a population just under 5 mn.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent:

• Bessent says he has to go back to DC to testify before Congress
• Greer and Lutnick will carry on with trade talks

• We have had 2 days of productive talks, talks are ongoing
• Talks will be continuing as needed

Bessent.

Bessent’s departure raises the possibility that talks are not going well so he is bailing out and leaving two bag holders. Or maybe I need to remove my tin hat?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via oilprice.com twitter:

—

Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude -2 mn barrels
• Distillates +0.8 mn bbls
• Gasoline +0.9 mn

This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US, Mexico are closing in on a deal that would remove President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel imports up to a certain volume – Bloomberg News with the info

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US and Mexico are nearing an agreement to eliminate President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on a pre-determined volume of steel imports, according to sources familiar with the discussions cited by Bloomberg. The deal would update a similar arrangement made during Trump’s first term.

I think Canada and the US are set for a similar type of deal in the near future as signs point to them also negotiating in secret. I thought Mexico might be left out of the deal because it’s been a big source of trans-shipments but that hasn’t been the case.

In the prior deal under Trump I, the US did not impose a hard quota so we will see what the details and tariffs are. The report notes that it would be a 0% tariff and that Trump will need to sign off on any deal.

“Under its current terms, it would allow US buyers to import Mexican steel duty-free as long as they kept total shipments below a level based on historical trade volumes, according to the people.”

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing higher on the day. The NASDAQ index is the strongest of the indices with a gain of 0.63%. Hopes for an agreement with China and the US helped to support the market.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• Dow Industrial Average rose 105.11 points or 0.25% at 42866.87.
• S&P index rose 32.93 points or 0.55% at 6038.81.
• NASDAQ index was 123.75 points or 0.63% at 19714.99.

Looking at some gainers, the chip sector did well today:

• Intel shares rose 7.95% helped by strong option buying. There was no news to support the surge.
• AMD shares rose 1.24%.
• Micron rose 2.88% will
• Nvidia shares rose 0.93%.

Looking at other gainers:

• Tesla shares rebounded 5.67%
• Stellantis rose 4.72%
• Schlumberger rose 4.09%
• Whirlpool rose 4.02%
• Target rose 3.56%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

more to come

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Lutnick: Talks are going really well, hope they end this evening
• World Bank cuts 2025 global growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points
• Bessent might shift from Treasury to Fed chair – report
• US treasury auctions $58B of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.972%
• Drill, baby, drill? US agency sees US oil prodcution falling next year
• ECB’s Vujcic says no need to discuss a rate cut until September
• 59 out of 105 economist see the Fed cutting next quarter (likely September).
• US May NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 95.9 expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down 54-cents to $64.75
• US 10-year yields down 1.6 bps to 4.47%
• Gold flat at $3327
• S&P 500 up 0.5%
• CAD leads, GBP lags

It was a day that was light on newsflow with everyone watching the US-China talks in London like a papal conclave. The only signal came late with Lutnick upbeat on talks but warning they could stretch into tomorrow. The market took that as a signal to buy stocks and bitcoin but the FX market was less impressed.

The mover on the day was the pound, which lost ground in European trade on a poor jobs report but recouped most of it by the end of European trading. Part of that was on general USD softness but there are also lingering questions about ONS data quality. On the day, it finished just below 1.3500 and down 50 pips.

USD/JPY climbed on hopes for a positive resolution in London, rising to 145.00 before backing off a tad. Treasury yields had been lower at the outset of US trading but reversed higher in part after a small tail in the 3-year auction.

Oil attempted to break out as it rose to a two-month high before reversing lower. The World Bank report emphasized some growth risks in H2 while the EIA retained its view on 2025 US oil production despite lower prices. Even with oil prices dragged lower, the loonie was well-supported on optimism about a US-Canada trade pact before the G7.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.