FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Bitcoin
hasn’t been immune to the deteriorating macro picture in the past few days amid
increasing Fed rate hike bets and worsening geopolitical developments.
The negative sentiment was triggered by Trump pouring cold water on expectations of an earlier end
to the Iran war when he repeated that the US would make a deal with Tehran
after the November elections.
Heading into the weekend though, the hopes for a
US-Iran deal returned after Iran sent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
within seven days on certain conditions.
Unfortunately, Trump rejected the proposal on Saturday and told reporters that he expected
to resume bombing Iran after the midterms. That has weighed on the crypto market and dragged bitcoin lower again.
With the lack of bitcoin-specific catalysts on
the horizon, the focus will remain on the Middle East and the Fed. A
breakthrough would be positive for bitcoin as the aggressive rate hike bets
will likely get pared back. A prolonged stalemate or even a re-escalation, on
the other hand, will likely continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoinis consolidating around the broken
resistance-turned-support zone around the 82,500 level. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the upward
trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will want to see
the price breaking lower to extend the drop into the 76,000 support next.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation between the 82,500 support and the 85,000
resistance. The buyers will continue to step in around the support, with a
defined risk below it, to keep targeting a rally into the 90,000 level. The
sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback
into the major trendline.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour
chart, there’s not much we can add here as the market participants will likely
continue to play the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until
we get a breakout on either side.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow, we get the US
Consumer Confidence report and the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have
the US ADP and the US PCE price index. On Thursday, we get the US ISM
Manufacturing PMI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we
conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.