Crude oil dropped to start
the week as Trump has waived several sanctions and tariffs on Russia to ease
fuel shortages and contain prices without making concessions to Iran.
Meanwhile, Ukraine launched
a major drone attack targeting energy infrastructure around St Petersburg,
including an oil export terminal, undermining prospects for the proposed energy
ceasefire. This could keep the risk premium high despite Trump’s waiver.
The US–Iran conflict
remains the main bullish driver for oil, with the negotiations for the
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz stalled. Attacks on commercial shipping
continue, and Gulf crude exports fell sharply last week, according to Kpler
data cited by Reuters.
Moreover, the conflict
between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continues with attacks on key infrastructure
and oil supply disruptions. Without a de-escalation in the Middle East, oil
prices will likely remain supported.
CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil(CFD contract) broke above
the 96.77 level and pulled back to retest the level. The buyers will likely
step in around the 96.77 level, with a defined risk below it, to keep targeting
the 110.00 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price falling back below the level to position for a drop into the lower bound of
the channel.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we have
a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely
continue to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to keep
pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break
lower to extend the pullback into the lower bound of the channel.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the buyers will likely step in around these levels,
with a defined risk below the trendline, to keep pushing into new highs, while
the sellers will need a break below the most recent lower low around the 95.30 level
to open the door for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
On
Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the Flash US PMIs. The focus will remain on the Middle East
developments.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.