FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Oil prices are rallying again to start the week as the
supply outlook deteriorated further after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following drone attacks. The pipeline is particularly important
because it has been used as a bypass for the Strait of Hormuz, moving roughly 4-5
million barrels per day to the Red Sea in recent months. Its closure therefore
removes one of the few alternative routes available to Saudi crude exports
while Hormuz remains severely disrupted.
Moreover, the postponement of planned talks between Iran and Gulf nations over a potential temporary shipping arrangement through
the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment, as hopes for a near-term easing in tensions
faded.
The fundamental picture remains positive for oil
prices and negative for other markets in general as inflation concerns remain
high. Hormuz disruption, the loss of Saudi Arabia’s main bypass pipeline. growing
risks around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait means the market has fewer
ways to compensate for lost or delayed barrels. Tanker rates have also surged
as shipping becomes more difficult and costly.
I think oil prices will remain supported into new
highs unless there’s a progress in US-Iran relations or toward the reopening of
the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, further attacks on energy infrastructure or
shipping would leave the upside risk firmly intact.
CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is approaching the key resistance zone around the 105.00
level again. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined
risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the lower bound of the
channel around the 85.00 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 111.00 handle
next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we
have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum into the resistance. If we
get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a
defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the lower
bound of the channel.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe.
If we get a pullback into the trendline to close the weekend gap, we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to keep targeting
new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the
pullback into the 4-hour trendline next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
On Wednesday, we have the
FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. Traders
will continue to keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.