FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
In terms
of idiosyncratic catalysts, Alpenglow, which is Solana’s major consensus
upgrade, went live on Solana’s public testnet on September 24 and devnet on
September 25, replacing TowerBFT with the new Votor consensus mechanism. The
upgrade targets a reduction in finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to around 150
milliseconds. The rollout is occurring in phases and it’s one of the largest
protocol upgrades in Solana’s history.
Looking
ahead, Alpenglow testnet performance and bugs will be monitored as successful
testing would strengthen the upgrade narrative, while problems could push back
expectations. The most important event will be the mainnet activation
announcement, which doesn’t have a clear date yet.
On the
macro side, renewed optimism
around US-Iran talks helped ease the previous tensions. Both sides are still
engaged in negotiations to amend Iran’s recent proposal to reopen the Strait of
Hormuz within seven days under certain conditions. The disagreement now
reportedly centres on the sequencing of the steps rather than the components of
the plan.
Moreover, Fed’s Williams yesterday gave the crypto market some support after
he said that he didn’t see any urgency after the September hike and that one
further hike was likely if the economy performed as expected. His comments
triggered a dovish repricing and the odds for a rate hike in October fell from 70%
to 45%.
Looking ahead, the focus will remain mainly on US-Iran developments. A
breakthrough would be positive for Solana in the short-term as the aggressive
Fed rate hike bets will likely get pared back. A negative outcome or a
prolonged stalemate, on the other hand, will likely continue to keep a lid on
the risk sentiment and the crypto market.
SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the
daily chart, we can see that Solana is consolidating
around the 120.00 level. We have a major trendline defining the bullish
structure. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the
trendline, with a defined risk below it, to keep pushing into the 149.00 level.
The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the
pullback into the 97.00 support.
SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4
hour chart, we have a minor trendline acting as support. The buyers will likely
continue to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to keep
pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile
in for a drop into the major trendline around the 108.00 level.
SOLANA TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1
hour chart, we have a tight range between the 117.00 and 121.00 levels. The
market participants will likely continue to play the range by buying at support
and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either side.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we have the US ADP and the US PCE price index.
Tomorrow, we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. The focus,
though, will remain on US-Iran developments.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.