FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
We haven’t
got new major Solana’s specific catalysts in the past couple of days as macro
and geopolitical developments continued to dominate the price action.
The
latest rally was driven by dovish comments from Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson this week, which provided a boost to the crypto
market despite the ongoing US-Iran stalemate.
Williams,
the President of the New York Fed, and Jefferson, the Fed Vice Chair, are two
of the three members of the so-called Fed “troika”, alongside the Fed Chair.
Their comments tend to carry significant weight with markets, and this time
they triggered a dovish repricing that pushed the probability of an October
rate hike down from around 70% to roughly 25%.
Looking
ahead, the focus will remain on developments in the Middle East and the Fed. A
breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations could provide further support for Solana
as expectations for aggressive Fed tightening would likely be pared back
further. On the other hand, a prolonged stalemate or renewed escalation could
limit the upside unless the Fed continues to sound more dovish than markets
expect.
Today, we
have also the US NFP report on the agenda. Given the recent comments from
Williams and Jefferson, we would likely need a blockbuster report, with the
data beating expectations across the board, to revive expectations for an
October hike. Such an outcome could trigger another hawkish repricing and weigh
on Solana in the short term.
In-line
or weaker-than-expected data, on the other hand, would likely reinforce the
dovish repricing and give Solana room to extend its recent rally.
SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the
daily chart, we can see that Solanafound support from the dovish Fed comments. The major upward trendline
will remain a key support, though, in case we get a pullback. The buyers will
likely lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to keep targeting the
149.00 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to
extend the correction into the 97.00 support next.
SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4
hour chart, we have a minor support zone around the 117.00 level. If we get a
pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to step in, with a defined risk
below the support, to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the major trendline.
SOLANA TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1
hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the recent bullish move.
If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on it, with a defined
risk below it, to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand,
will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the 117.00 support.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Todaywe conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.