- Prior was +162K (revised to +133K)
- Two-month net revision -60K
- Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.1% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 4.1%
- Unrounded unemployment vs 4.1413% prior
- Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.6% prior
- U6 underemployment rate 7.6% vs 7.7% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings 3.0% y/y vs +3.2% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.3 expected
- Change in private payrolls +46K vs +85K expected
- Prior private payrolls +127K
- Change in manufacturing payrolls K vs +10K expected
- Government payrolls K vs +35K prior
Fed funds pricing was at a 28% chance of a rate hike ahead of the data and USD/JPY was trading at 157.60. US 2-year yields were at 4.78% with 10s at 5.23%.
This is a dovish report and closes the debate on an October rate hike barring a red-hot CPI reading. The lone positive I see the report is a second month of rising labor force participation, in an unwind of a troubling trend. That naturally puts upwards pressure on unemployment but is still a net positive for the economy.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.