Standard Chartered now expects the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by 2030, two years later than it first projected. The bank made the change after total stablecoin supply stalled at roughly $309 billion this year, according to Cointelegraph, which was shown the report.
Read quickly, a “$2 trillion” headline sounds bullish. It is really a delay. The more interesting part of the report is the bank’s argument that stablecoins are still being used more, even though the market has stopped getting bigger. Understanding how both can be true is one of the most useful ideas in crypto right now.
Market size and usage are two different things
A stablecoin is a crypto token designed to hold a steady value, usually one US dollar, backed by reserves held by the issuer. Because each token is meant to be worth $1, a stablecoin’s market capitalisation is in practice the number of tokens in circulation.
That figure tells you how many stablecoin dollars exist. It does not tell you how hard those dollars are working.
Think of a taxi fleet. The number of cars on the road can stay flat while the number of trips rises, because each car is busier. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, describes stablecoins in the same terms: supply growth has slowed, but existing tokens are changing hands more often as their uses widen. Economists call this velocity.
The practical point for readers is that a flat market cap chart, on its own, does not show demand fading. It can mean the same pool of money is circulating faster.
Four markets, not one
Kendrick splits stablecoins into four separate markets, each with its own leader:
- Emerging-market savings: Tether’s USDT dominates, used by people holding dollars outside their local banking system.
- Developed-market payments: Circle’s USDC leads.
- Crypto trading: USDC and Ethena’s USDe hold strong positions.
- Payments between AI agents: a much smaller market, also led by USDC.
This matters because “the stablecoin market” is often treated as one race between USDT and USDC. On the bank’s framing, the two largest tokens are mostly doing different jobs for different users.
Why reserve yield could decide the winners
Issuers typically hold their reserves in cash and short-term government debt, which earns interest. Kendrick argues that how issuers and payment networks share that income could determine who gains market share.
He expects the fiercest competition in developed-market payments, where challengers such as USDG, M^0 and stablecoin networks run by groups of banks are building alternatives to existing payment rails. A network that passes more of the yield on to the businesses using it has a clear selling point.
The regulatory calendar
The US rulebook is still being written. Since the GENIUS Act passed in 2025, regulators have proposed rules covering issuance, reserves and consumer protection.
Three proposals stand out:
- Treasury licensing: an August proposal would restrict US stablecoin issuance to federally or state-authorised issuers, with licensing expected to take effect in January 2027.
- Deposit insurance: a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) proposal would exclude stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance, meaning their holdings would not be treated like insured bank deposits.
- Accounting: the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which sets US accounting standards, proposed an update in August that could change how companies report some stablecoins on their balance sheets. Payments firm Tempo said this could make it easier for businesses to use stablecoins for settlement.
The accounting change is easy to overlook. Corporate adoption of a payment tool often depends less on the technology than on whether the finance team can book it cleanly.
What could change the interpretation
The velocity argument relies on usage data continuing to grow. If transaction activity flattened alongside supply, the “same dollars, working harder” reading would weaken, and the delayed forecast could start to look optimistic.
On the other side, a fresh rise in supply would suggest new money is arriving. Clearer US licensing rules from 2027 could help that by giving larger institutions the certainty they need to issue or hold stablecoins at scale.
What to watch next
Watch two numbers together rather than one: total stablecoin supply and transaction volume. Rising volume on flat supply supports Standard Chartered’s view. Falling volume on flat supply would be a warning sign.
Then watch the rule-making. The final shape of the Treasury licensing rules ahead of January 2027, and whether FASB finalises its accounting proposal, will show how quickly regulated institutions can move into the payments market.
The practical takeaway is that a stalled market cap does not by itself mean the stablecoin story has stalled. Look at how money moves, not just how much of it exists.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.