The stop-start signal is itself a market factor, because it shows US, por at least Trump, policy toward the Houthis can swing quickly and leaves open a third reversal. For now, no strikes means the Houthi threat to the Red Sea and Saudi export routes is unchecked, which supports keeping an energy risk premium, with the Bab al-Mandab as a second chokepoint alongside Hormuz. Strikes would carry their own risk, since one official said the Houthis would probably resume firing on US ships if a campaign restarted. Shipping and insurance costs are the first place either path would show, and traders will treat any fresh Pentagon or White House leak as a headline risk.
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Trump has flipped twice on Houthi strikes, first ordering preparations after a call with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and then, by Sunday midday, standing down for now.
Summary:
- The New York Times (gated) reports Trump told advisers he did not favor strikes on the Houthis, then reversed himself after speaking with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and told the Pentagon to prepare airstrikes.
- By midday Sunday he appeared to reverse again, and administration officials said there would be no US airstrikes for the time being.
- Riyadh has pressed Washington for strikes as the Houthis advanced toward the Bab al-Mandab and fired a ballistic missile at the Saudi capital.
- Earlier reports said Trump rejected the requests while offering intelligence and targeting data, with roughly 200 US personnel in Saudi Arabia in non-combat roles, and that his directive was to keep US forces focused on Iran and Hormuz.
- Current and former US officials doubt a limited bombing campaign would force the Houthis to negotiate, and one warned they would probably resume firing on US ships if strikes restarted.
- The Houthis have rebuilt much of their capability since last year’s ceasefire and are using artificial intelligence to develop new missiles, according to officials.
President Donald Trump has reversed himself twice on whether the United States should strike the Houthis in Yemen, according to the New York Times. The paper reported that Trump met advisers and told them he did not favor strikes, but that after speaking with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman he changed course and told the Pentagon to prepare for airstrikes. By midday Sunday, he appeared to have reversed himself again, and administration officials said there would be no US airstrikes against the Houthis, at least not for the time being.
The turn follows weeks of pressure from Riyadh. Axios and CBS News reported that the crown prince spoke to Trump twice and asked for direct US action as the Houthis seized the Red Sea port of Mocha and advanced toward the Bab al-Mandab. Trump rejected the request at the time, and US officials said the administration did not intend to take direct military action, according to Axios. Instead, Washington has been supplying Saudi Arabia with intelligence and targeting data, and roughly 200 US personnel are in the country in non-combat roles. US officials also told Saudi counterparts that Trump’s directive was to keep American forces focused on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz and avoid opening another front. Riyadh’s stance has shifted since July, when it told Washington it could deal with the Houthis on its own.
The pressure rose after the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh, which Saudi forces intercepted, and claimed attacks on sensitive sites in the capital.
The New York Times separately reported that current and former US diplomats and commanders doubt a limited bombing campaign would force the Houthis to negotiate. The group withstood nearly eight weeks of US strikes last year, and the officials said it has since rebuilt much of its capability and is using artificial intelligence to develop new missiles. One official said the Houthis would probably resume firing on US ships if strikes restarted, and warned of further disruption to oil and gas transit in the Bab al-Mandab, with the Strait of Hormuz already unstable.
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The reported sequence shows a decision that has moved more than once, so a stand-down now is not a settled policy. That matters for oil because the Bab al-Mandab and Red Sea routes underpin Saudi Arabia’s workaround for its damaged East-West pipeline, and a sudden shift either way would hit shipping risk.
Attention now turns to further Houthi advances, any renewed Pentagon preparations reported in the coming days, and the outcome of Chinese efforts to restrain the group.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.