Articles

Headlines:

• Markets increase bets on ECB rate cuts following the softer inflation figures
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE?
• ECB’s de Guindos: Caution is even more important during times of uncertainty
• France March preliminary CPI +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected
• Spain March preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y expected
• Germany April GfK consumer sentiment -24.5 vs -22.7 expected
• Germany March unemployment change 26k vs 10k expected
• Eurozone March final consumer confidence -14.5 vs -14.5 prelim
• UK February retail sales +1.0% vs -0.4% m/m expected
• Japan PM Ishiba says counter-tariffs are not the most effective now
• China president Xi: US-China relations should stay stable, healthy
• Heads up: The clocks will go forward in Europe this weekend
• ICYMI: Bank models predict dollar demand for this month-end, quarter-end

Markets:

• JPY leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
• US 10-year yields down 3.9 bps to 4.330%
• Gold up 0.7% to $3,077.53
• WTI crude flat at $69.91
• Bitcoin down 2.6% to $85,020

It was a slower session as broader markets continue to adopt a more cautious tone, with Trump tariffs next week casting a shadow over proceedings.

Risk sentiment remains on the defensive, with European indices keeping lower while US futures are also a little more subdued.

The overall mood is helping to keep the dollar in a steadier spot at the balance, with EUR/USD down 0.3% to 1.0770 levels. The pair is also caught in between large option expiries on the day and softer French and Spanish inflation numbers are also pinning the pair down. On the latter, traders are now pricing in ~90% odds of a rate cut by the ECB in April – up from ~80% before that.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.1% to 1.2930 despite a beat on UK retail sales data while USD/CAD is seen up 0.1% to 1.4320 on the day. The antipodes are the laggards, with AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6290 levels and NZD/USD down 0.4% to 0.5715 with month-end flows also a consideration perhaps.

USD/JPY is also lower on the day, down 0.2% to 150.78 with lower Treasury yields amid the more risk averse mood in markets.

Besides that, gold continues to shine brightly as the precious metal pushed to a fresh record high of $3,086 before keeping just under that – up 0.7% on the day to $3,077 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD pair continues to mostly range as traders await the April 2nd deadline. The Loonie’s faith remains tied to the US tariffs plan that is going to be unveiled on Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar could really see a massive appreciation in case we get good news. It’s a game of patience now. Not having a position is having a position.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price recently bounced from the bottom of the range and continued upwards with the buyers increasing their bets on the break of the downward trendline. The bullish momentum is now defined by the upward trendline where the buyers will likely lean onto to keep pushing into the 1.4380 resistance.

The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop back into the support or wait for the price to come into the resistance to have an even better risk to reward setup.

Today we have the Canadian GDP and the US
PCE report. The data could bring some very short term volatility but the focus is on the April 2nd event. All the rest is just noise.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

How to Trade with tradeCompass: A Complete Guide for Traders

In today’s fast-moving markets, traders often face two critical questions:
Where should I enter the trade?
Where should I take profits or cut losses?

That’s exactly where tradeCompass comes in — a professional, structured, and highly actionable decision-support tool designed for day traders, swing traders, and investors who want to navigate markets with clarity and discipline.

In this article, we’ll explain what is tradeCompass, how to use it effectively, and why it has become a go-to tool for traders in Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Gold, and other major markets.

What is tradeCompass?

tradeCompass is your daily market map — a professional analysis that highlights the key price levels, potential breakout and reversal zones, and provides ready-made bullish and bearish trade plans based on technical analysis, volume profile, VWAP levels, and liquidity pools.

Each tradeCompass report includes:

✅ The most important key support and resistance levels
✅ Clear bullish and bearish thresholds
✅ Pre-defined partial profit-taking levels
✅ Trade management guidance to help protect profits
✅ Professional market commentary explaining the logic behind the levels

It’s built for traders who want a clear, pre-session orientation without the noise, helping them prepare actionable scenarios in advance.

How to Trade with tradeCompass

The process is straightforward and built to keep you disciplined and focused:

1. Use the Bullish and Bearish Thresholds

Every tradeCompass report defines two critical directional levels:

• Bullish Threshold → If price crosses above this level, the analysis suggests looking for long (buy) opportunities.

• Bearish Threshold → If price drops below this level, the analysis suggests looking for short (sell) opportunities.

Traders are encouraged to wait for a sustained crossing of these levels. For example, if you trade on 5-minute timeframes, you may want to see a confirmed close above the bullish threshold to avoid falling into fakeouts or liquidity spikes.

2. Take Partial Profits at Key Levels

One of the most valuable features of tradeCompass is its pre-defined partial profit-taking targets. These levels are not random — they are calculated based on professional analysis of VWAP bands, liquidity zones, and market structure.

For example, in a recent Bitcoin tradeCompass, the bullish threshold was set at $86,800 with three partial profit targets:

• Target 1: $86,900 (0.25% move)

• Target 2: $87,250 (0.5% move)

• Target 3: $87,900 (not reached in this example)

These levels help traders scale out of their positions and secure profits without guessing.

3. Adjust Your Stop After Hitting Targets

A key risk management principle of tradeCompass is:
Once the second target is hit, consider moving your stop to break-even (entry price).
This allows you to protect profits on the remaining position while leaving room for further gains.

Some traders may choose to adjust their stop even after the first target, depending on distance and market conditions.

4. Trade Only One Direction Per Session

Another important rule is:
Limit yourself to one directional trade per tradeCompass.
If you took a bullish trade and either hit your profit targets or got stopped out → you don’t take another long based on that day’s tradeCompass. However, you can still take the bearish setup if price crosses the bearish threshold later.

This keeps you objective and prevents overtrading.

5. Respect the Thresholds for Your Stop-Loss

If you are bullish and planning a long trade, your stop-loss should not be below the bearish threshold.
If you are bearish, your stop-loss should not be above the bullish threshold.
This keeps your trade aligned with the tradeCompass structure and prevents large, emotional stop placements.

How to Trade with tradeCompass – the above principles are exemplified within this video

The Logic Behind the tradeCompass Analysis Approach

The tradeCompass methodology is built on institutional-grade technical analysis and advanced market structure concepts. It’s not based on indicators or opinions — it’s based on objective, repeatable analysis of how markets behave around key price zones.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the analytical tools behind every tradeCompass report:

🔍 Volume Profile & High Volume Nodes (HVNs)

The Volume Profile shows how much trading activity occurred at each price level during a specific period.
High Volume Nodes (HVNs) are price areas where a large amount of volume was traded — essentially, areas where the market spent a lot of time and many traders agreed on price.

Why it matters:
HVNs act as magnets and barriers — price often stalls, consolidates, or reverses around these areas because that’s where large institutional traders have built positions.

📊 VWAP & Standard Deviations

VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) is a key institutional benchmark that shows the average price paid for an asset, weighted by volume.

Standard Deviations of VWAP are dynamic bands that adjust based on market activity, similar to Bollinger Bands but volume-sensitive:

• When markets trend, these bands expand.

• When markets consolidate, they contract.

Why it matters:
Traders use VWAP bands to identify overbought/oversold zones, trend continuation points, and mean reversion areas.

🚩 Clusters of Key Levels

The analysis looks for clusters of significant levels — for example, when the VWAP, yesterday’s POC (Point of Control), and a major support/resistance level all converge within a tight price area.

Why it matters:
When multiple key levels align, they create a high-probability reaction zone. Price is more likely to react aggressively (bounce, reject, or break through) at these clusters.

🟢 Naked Key Levels

Naked key levels are price levels from previous sessions (like yesterday’s Value Area High, Low, or POC) that were not tested or touched in the following session.
They remain “naked” until price returns to them.

Why it matters:
These levels often act as price magnets in future sessions. Professional traders and algorithms watch these naked levels because they represent unfinished business in the market structure.

Why Use tradeCompass

tradeCompass is not a signal service. It is a professional, data-driven decision-support tool designed to:

🎯 Keep traders objective and prepared
🎯 Remove emotional, reactive trading
🎯 Help manage risk with pre-defined targets and stop adjustments
🎯 Map out both bullish and bearish scenarios in advance
🎯 Prevent overtrading by sticking to one direction per session

Whether you trade Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Gold, or other instruments — tradeCompass gives you a clear, structured framework to navigate the market each day.

Stay Connected

Join our Telegram Channels for real-time updates, trade ideas, and premium content:

📈 Stocks & Equities Channel → 👉 Join now! 🔗 t.me/investingLiveStocks
💎 Crypto Channel → 🔗 t.me/investingLiveCrypto

tradeCompass covers a variety of financial instruments. To check the latest tradeCompass reports, simply search for tradeCompass on ForexLive or Google.

ForexLive.com ►►► investingLive.com

ForexLive.com will be transitioning to investingLive.com by the end of this year.
The same team and trusted analysis will continue — but with expanded market coverage, some cool new features we’ll be gradually rolling out, intelligent live news, new content to help you become a smarter investor, new decision-support tools like tradeCompass, and a fresh design to support traders and investors across all asset classes. Stay tuned and start getting used to the new name! investingLive

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

How to Trade with tradeCompass: A Complete Guide for Traders

In today’s fast-moving markets, traders often face two critical questions:
Where should I enter the trade?
Where should I take profits or cut losses?

That’s exactly where tradeCompass comes in — a professional, structured, and highly actionable decision-support tool designed for day traders, swing traders, and investors who want to navigate markets with clarity and discipline.

In this article, we’ll explain what is tradeCompass, how to use it effectively, and why it has become a go-to tool for traders in Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Gold, and other major markets.

What is tradeCompass?

tradeCompass is your daily market map — a professional analysis that highlights the key price levels, potential breakout and reversal zones, and provides ready-made bullish and bearish trade plans based on technical analysis, volume profile, VWAP levels, and liquidity pools.

Each tradeCompass report includes:

✅ The most important key support and resistance levels
✅ Clear bullish and bearish thresholds
✅ Pre-defined partial profit-taking levels
✅ Trade management guidance to help protect profits
✅ Professional market commentary explaining the logic behind the levels

It’s built for traders who want a clear, pre-session orientation without the noise, helping them prepare actionable scenarios in advance.

How to Trade with tradeCompass

The process is straightforward and built to keep you disciplined and focused:

1. Use the Bullish and Bearish Thresholds

Every tradeCompass report defines two critical directional levels:

• Bullish Threshold → If price crosses above this level, the analysis suggests looking for long (buy) opportunities.

• Bearish Threshold → If price drops below this level, the analysis suggests looking for short (sell) opportunities.

Traders are encouraged to wait for a sustained crossing of these levels. For example, if you trade on 5-minute timeframes, you may want to see a confirmed close above the bullish threshold to avoid falling into fakeouts or liquidity spikes.

2. Take Partial Profits at Key Levels

One of the most valuable features of tradeCompass is its pre-defined partial profit-taking targets. These levels are not random — they are calculated based on professional analysis of VWAP bands, liquidity zones, and market structure.

For example, in a recent Bitcoin tradeCompass, the bullish threshold was set at $86,800 with three partial profit targets:

• Target 1: $86,900 (0.25% move)

• Target 2: $87,250 (0.5% move)

• Target 3: $87,900 (not reached in this example)

These levels help traders scale out of their positions and secure profits without guessing.

3. Adjust Your Stop After Hitting Targets

A key risk management principle of tradeCompass is:
Once the second target is hit, consider moving your stop to break-even (entry price).
This allows you to protect profits on the remaining position while leaving room for further gains.

Some traders may choose to adjust their stop even after the first target, depending on distance and market conditions.

4. Trade Only One Direction Per Session

Another important rule is:
Limit yourself to one directional trade per tradeCompass.
If you took a bullish trade and either hit your profit targets or got stopped out → you don’t take another long based on that day’s tradeCompass. However, you can still take the bearish setup if price crosses the bearish threshold later.

This keeps you objective and prevents overtrading.

5. Respect the Thresholds for Your Stop-Loss

If you are bullish and planning a long trade, your stop-loss should not be below the bearish threshold.
If you are bearish, your stop-loss should not be above the bullish threshold.
This keeps your trade aligned with the tradeCompass structure and prevents large, emotional stop placements.

How to Trade with tradeCompass – the above principles are exemplified within this video

The Logic Behind the tradeCompass Analysis Approach

The tradeCompass methodology is built on institutional-grade technical analysis and advanced market structure concepts. It’s not based on indicators or opinions — it’s based on objective, repeatable analysis of how markets behave around key price zones.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the analytical tools behind every tradeCompass report:

🔍 Volume Profile & High Volume Nodes (HVNs)

The Volume Profile shows how much trading activity occurred at each price level during a specific period.
High Volume Nodes (HVNs) are price areas where a large amount of volume was traded — essentially, areas where the market spent a lot of time and many traders agreed on price.

Why it matters:
HVNs act as magnets and barriers — price often stalls, consolidates, or reverses around these areas because that’s where large institutional traders have built positions.

📊 VWAP & Standard Deviations

VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) is a key institutional benchmark that shows the average price paid for an asset, weighted by volume.

Standard Deviations of VWAP are dynamic bands that adjust based on market activity, similar to Bollinger Bands but volume-sensitive:

• When markets trend, these bands expand.

• When markets consolidate, they contract.

Why it matters:
Traders use VWAP bands to identify overbought/oversold zones, trend continuation points, and mean reversion areas.

🚩 Clusters of Key Levels

The analysis looks for clusters of significant levels — for example, when the VWAP, yesterday’s POC (Point of Control), and a major support/resistance level all converge within a tight price area.

Why it matters:
When multiple key levels align, they create a high-probability reaction zone. Price is more likely to react aggressively (bounce, reject, or break through) at these clusters.

🟢 Naked Key Levels

Naked key levels are price levels from previous sessions (like yesterday’s Value Area High, Low, or POC) that were not tested or touched in the following session.
They remain “naked” until price returns to them.

Why it matters:
These levels often act as price magnets in future sessions. Professional traders and algorithms watch these naked levels because they represent unfinished business in the market structure.

Why Use tradeCompass

tradeCompass is not a signal service. It is a professional, data-driven decision-support tool designed to:

🎯 Keep traders objective and prepared
🎯 Remove emotional, reactive trading
🎯 Help manage risk with pre-defined targets and stop adjustments
🎯 Map out both bullish and bearish scenarios in advance
🎯 Prevent overtrading by sticking to one direction per session

Whether you trade Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Gold, or other instruments — tradeCompass gives you a clear, structured framework to navigate the market each day.

Stay Connected

Join our Telegram Channels for real-time updates, trade ideas, and premium content:

📈 Stocks & Equities Channel → 👉 Join now! 🔗 t.me/investingLiveStocks
💎 Crypto Channel → 🔗 t.me/investingLiveCrypto

tradeCompass covers a variety of financial instruments. To check the latest tradeCompass reports, simply search for tradeCompass on ForexLive or Google.

ForexLive.com ►►► investingLive.com

ForexLive.com will be transitioning to investingLive.com by the end of this year.
The same team and trusted analysis will continue — but with expanded market coverage, some cool new features we’ll be gradually rolling out, intelligent live news, new content to help you become a smarter investor, new decision-support tools like tradeCompass, and a fresh design to support traders and investors across all asset classes. Stay tuned and start getting used to the new name! investingLive

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump chose the worst time possible to start his tariffs war. One thing that people forget to take into account is context. During the first Trump’s administration, we haven’t had an inflation problem with central bank struggling to achieve their 2% targets sustainably. Today, we have the opposite problem. Central banks are struggling to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

This means that they are constrained from cutting interest rates and help the economy right when growth is expected to slow down due to the tariff policy. Not only tariffs are leading to slower growth, but they are also raising inflation expectations in the short term further constraining the central bank’s ability to cut.

These stagflationary forces are a big risk for the economy and markets in 2025.

There is still some hope in the air though. The hope is that next Wednesday, when the US reciprocal tariffs plan gets announced, we will see benign figures. That’s the only thing keeping the markets from freaking out.

But what if we get the opposite? What if we get higher than expected tariffs? Well, on a forward looking basis, it doesn’t look good. Markets will likely revise growth expectations further downward and inflation expectations will increase. The stock market is likely to sell off and with no central bank support, it could get ugly.

Gold should be a clear winner as it thrives in stagflationary environments given that real yields fall on rising inflation expectations and falling nominal yields. We’ve been already seeing traders flocking to gold as a protection.

If the Fed starts to talk about tightening policy though, then gold will likely sell off too. We will see some serious short term pain in the markets which should finally bring inflation down to the 2% target and eventually open the door for more aggressive rate cuts.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -13.6
• Economic confidence 95.2 vs 97.0 expected
• Prior 96.3
• Industrial confidence -10.6 vs -10.5 expected
• Prior -11.4; revised to -11.0
• Services confidence 2.4 vs 6.7 expected
• Prior 6.2; revised to 5.1

Slight delay in the release by the source. Economic sentiment in the euro area declined to its lowest since December last year as services sector sentiment fell profoundly on the month. The outlook remains shaky with Trump tariffs also in consideration. Adding to the concerns is the rise in consumer inflation expectations. The index (as seen below) climbed to 24.4 in March, the highest since November 2022.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 31/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It’s been a pretty choppy week for many markets as traders continue to wait for the US reciprocal tariffs announcement next Wednesday before taking positions with more conviction.

That’s what the market is focused on now and all the rest is just short term noise. That catalyst should lead to sustained trends. On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that the NZDUSD pair has just been bouncing around between the 0.5710 support and the 0.5770 resistance.

Traders will likely continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side but from a risk management perspective, waiting for April 2nd would be the way to go.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The median for inflation expectations over the next 12 months and for 3 years ahead remains unchanged at 2.6% and 2.4% respectively in February, similar to that of January. But the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months fell further to 3.1% – its lowest since September 2021.

But more importantly perhaps is that uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months decreased in the latest survey, falling to its lowest since January 2022. That’s a positive sign but do be mindful that the situation could change in the months ahead amid Trump’s tariffs.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 5k
• Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.2% expected
• Prior 6.2%

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 64 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• ECB: 60 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Following the soft French and Spanish CPI data, traders increased the expected easing from 56 bps to 60 bps.

• BoE: 45 bps (56% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• BoC: 48 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBA: 66 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBNZ: 60 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 12 bps (75% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 33 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan might be one that is most impacted by Trump’s auto tariffs but given the nature of their relationship with the US, any major retaliation is off the table.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.