Articles

Bloomberg (gated) with the report, in brief:

• Iran is pitching a “trillion-dollar” investment opportunity to the US amid nuclear talks, aiming to ease sanctions and attract American industries to its energy and nuclear sectors.
• Tehran’s economic struggles have made it more open to cooperation, but corruption and deep mistrust still cloud the negotiations.
• The US insists Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons, keeping the final outcome uncertain.

Bloomberg cite unnamed sources.

If some sort of deal is reached it may prompt further oil supply to market.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come

White House official:

• Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs
• Preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs Trump has imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the U.S.
• Those actions are expected tomorrow

These comments basically a repeat of the what the Wall Street Journal reported:

• Wall Street Journal says Trump to soften blow on automotive tariffs

More.

US Commerce SEC:

• Trump building important partnership with domestic automakers and workers;
• Deal rewards domestic manufacturers, supports firms committed to expanding US production

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal says Trump to soften blow on automotive tariffs:

• preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs
• easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US
• “Trump is expected to take the actions ahead of a trip to Michigan for a rally outside Detroit on Tuesday evening, marking 100 days since he took office.”

The Journal is gated. If you can access, link here.

Let’s see if this turns out to be correct or Trump tweets ‘fake noos!!!!’

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi:

• Concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive
• Dialogue can help resolve differences

***

While US officials keep telling us that they are in contact with China over tariffs China is not seemingly responsive.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US politics.

“GOP Sen. Rand Paul says he expects to have enough votes in Senate to pass resolution to effectively block Trump’s tarrifs.
But Paul, who expects the vote Wednesday, attacked Speaker Johnson’s move to block such resolutions as “dishonesty.””

Info comes viua CNN politics reporter:

***

The background to this, via Politico:

• The White House warned that Trump will veto a bipartisan Senate resolution that would terminate his sweeping global “Liberation Day” tariffs.
• The statement of administration policy from the Office of Management and Budget, sent to congressional offices Monday, comes ahead of an expected vote this week forced by several Democrats led by Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon and Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s leading life insurers are planning to cut their holdings of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by a combined 1.3 trillion yen ($9.1 billion) in fiscal 2025, marking a shift in strategy amid new capital regulations.

According to their disclosed asset management plans, four of the top 10 insurers intend to reduce their JGB positions during the first half of the fiscal year, which began in April. Notably, Nippon Life Insurance will trim its holdings for the first time since fiscal 2016.

Info comes via Japan’s Nikkei press.

***

ps. Japan is on holiday today, markets are closed.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ray Dalio isn’t mincing words: the world is past the point of avoiding a historic realignment in trade, capital markets, and geopolitics.

In a stark warning, the Bridgewater founder said hopes for a negotiated fix to the U.S.-led tariff battles are “naive.” The shift away from U.S.-centric trade and investment flows is already happening — and it’s happening fast.

“Exporters, importers, producers, and investors are realizing that regardless of what happens with tariffs, reduced interdependence with the U.S. is now a reality that must be planned for,” Dalio wrote. American and Chinese businesses are scrambling to redraw supply chains and investment plans, but the pullback from the U.S. extends well beyond China. Across the world, companies and governments are repositioning themselves for an era of fractured globalization.

The bigger worry: America’s role as the world’s consumer of last resort — and biggest issuer of debt — is looking increasingly unsustainable. Dalio warns that relying on the U.S. to keep buying and borrowing, and trusting that dollar debt will hold its value, is a dangerous assumption. Countries are beginning to plan for a future where the dollar may not be the ultimate safe haven.

Put simply:

• Deglobalization is here.

• Massive trade and capital imbalances are no longer sustainable.

• The U.S. risks being sidelined as new global networks form without it.

Dalio says the signs are everywhere: monetary systems, domestic politics, and international alliances are all buckling under the weight of bad fundamentals. Today’s disruptions, he argues, look a lot like the early stages of previous historical collapses.

There’s still a chance to manage the transition well — but it would require calm, coordinated action that so far has been sorely lacking. Dalio has floated solutions, like his “3-Part, 3-Percent” fiscal plan outlined in his new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, but he doubts policymakers will act in time.

“The window for smart planning is closing,” Dalio said. “It’s time for investors and decision-makers to focus on the structural shifts — not just react to daily headlines — if they want to survive what’s coming.”

***

Dalio in a tweet, warns its too late already:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The original US tax bill goal date was Memorial Day. US Treas Sec Bessent now says he hopes for July 4.

Bessent met with ‘Big Six’ GOP leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, at 4 PM to discuss the party-line megabill and the approaching debt ceiling “X-date.”

As for the X date, Bessent says will get a better idea of it by the end of this or next week. No new date set for now.

Trader are looking to Bessent now for more coherent policy signals.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Spain PM says to release 3 days worth of Strategic Oil Reserves

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• US stocks close mixed/little changed
• A total of 12 of the 30 Dow stocks will announce earnings this week.
• US Q2 Treasury borrowing estimate soars to $514 billion
• Gold erases Friday’s drop, range now defined
• Crude oil settles at $62.05
• Lutnick will be let out of the penalty box tomorrow
• There is one Canadian election outcome that could hurt the loonie
• White House: Talks with the UK are going in the right direction
• Estimates for Wednesday’s US GDP report are all over the place
• Gasparino: Holdup in Japan tariff deal is on commitment to buy oil
• The market needs the answer to this question: What are tariffs for?
• Dallas Fed manufacturing business index -35.8 vs -16.3 prior
• Induced atmospheric vibration was the cause of the Spanish power outage
• The US consumer hasn’t cracked yet
• ECB’s Rehn: More cuts forecast correct if outlook shows undershoot of 2% inflation
• ECBs deGuidos:Incoming data suggest modest growth in the quarter of 2025
• Trump leans into the 51st state rhetoric on Canadian election day
• Germany’s Merz: I don’t not want an open tariff war with the USA
• Bessent: Chinese exemptions show they want a de-escalation on trade
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady, markets wait on more trade developments
• We are still demanding a full removal of US tariffs, says Japan economy minister
• UK April CBI retailing reported sales -8 vs -41 prior

The USD moved lower versus most of the major currencies led by the moves vs the JPY and the GBP. The USDJPY is trading down -1.12% currently, while the greenback is lower versus the GBP by -1.03%.

For the GBPUSD , at the start the North American session, the pair was trading near 1.3342. Currently, it is extending to new session highs going into the close above the 2024 high at 1.3433 (higher GBPUSD is a lower USD). The current price trades at 1.3442 – down 100 pips from the early US opening levels. The run to the upside also takes the price to the highest levels since 2022.

For the USDJPY, it was trading near 143.34. As we head into the close, the price is currently trading at 142.03. The move lower has now taken the price below its 200-hour moving average at 142.26. That will be the close risk level going into the new trading day. On the downside, there is a swing area between 141.60 and 141.94.

The US dollar is also lower the:

• CHF -0.81%
• EUR -0.54%, and
• CAD -0.20%

The USD did rise vs the AUD and NZD:

• AUD – 0.61%
• NZD -0.37%

Lower yields helped to push the greenback to the downside. The current snapshot shows:

• 2 year yield 3.683%, -7.3 based points
• 5 year yield 3.809%, -6.8 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.208%, -4.7 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.681%, -8.1 basis points

US stocks traded up and down but reversed earlier declines into the close leaving the Dow and the S&P in positive territory. The NASDAQ fell modestly. The final numbers show

• Dow industrial average rose 114.09 points or 0.28% at 40227.59. The index was down -244.40 point at session lows.
• S&P index rose 3.54 points or 0.06% at 5528.75. The index was down -56.57 points at session lows.
• NASDAQ index fell -16.81 points or -0.10% at 17366.13. The index was down -254.23 points at session lows. Lexus 714 2:30 PM

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

POLITICO cite a draft they have seen:

• UK and the European Union are set to sign a formal declaration committing to “free and open trade”
• leaked draft seen by POLITICO promises a “new strategic partnership” between London and Brussels based on “maintaining global economic stability and our mutual commitment to free and open trade.”

A chance to reuse and old Brexit pic!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche Bank preview of Friday’s non-farm payroll report for April:

• +125k headline forecast (consensus is 135K, prior 228K)
• jobless rate forecast is 4.2% (unchanged from March)

Deutsche Bank says due to the timing of Easter and spring school breaks that March and APril results can be less predictable.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.