Articles

Monday, April 28

• Canada Federal Election (All day)

Tuesday, April 29

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Forecast: 7.48M; Prior: 7.57M)

• Australia CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.8%; Prior: 0.2%)

• Australia CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.3%; Prior: 2.4%)

• Australia Trimmed Mean CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.6%; Prior: 0.5%)

• China Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.8; Prior: 50.5)

• Germany Preliminary CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.4%; Prior: 0.3%)

Wednesday, April 30

• U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: 123K; Prior: 155K)

• Canada GDP m/m (Forecast: 0.4%; Prior: 0.4%)

• U.S. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: 0.4%; Prior: 2.4%)

• U.S. Employment Cost Index q/q (Forecast: 0.9%; Prior: 0.9%)

• 7:00am: U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m (Forecast: 0.1%; Prior: 0.4%)

• Tentative: BOJ Policy Rate Decision (Expected: <0.50%)

• BOJ Monetary Policy Statement

• BOJ Outlook Report

• BOJ Press Conference

Thursday, May 1

• U.S. Unemployment Claims (Forecast: 224K; Prior: 222K)

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 48.0; Prior: 49.0)

Friday, May 2

• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m (Forecast: 0.3%; Prior: 0.3%)

• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Forecast: 129K; Prior: 228K)

• U.S. Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.2%; Prior: 4.2%)

• All day: Australia Parliamentary Elections

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The earnings calendar heats up next week with the number of big-name releases including Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Starbucks, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron on scheduled to release. Below is the full list of some of the bigger names on the schedule.

Monday, April 29

Before Open:

• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

• MGM Resorts (MGM)

After Close:

• Waste Management (WM)

• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

• F5 Networks (FFIV)

• Teradyne (TER)

Tuesday, April 30

Before Open:

• SoFi (SOFI)

• PayPal (PYPL)

• UPS

• JetBlue (JBLU)

• Coca-Cola (KO)

• Pfizer (PFE)

• Royal Caribbean (RCL)

• Spotify (SPOT)

• Altria (MO)

After Close:

• Visa (V)

• Starbucks (SBUX)

• Snap Inc. (SNAP)

• First Solar (FSLR)

• PPG Industries (PPG)

• Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Wednesday, May 1

Before Open:

• Humana (HUM)

• Caterpillar (CAT)

• Vulcan Materials (VMC)

• Western Digital (WDC)

• Generac (GNRC)

• International Paper (IP)

• Hess (HES)

After Close:

• Microsoft (MSFT)

• Meta (META)

• Robinhood (HOOD)

• Qualcomm (QCOM)

Thursday, May 2

Before Open:

• Eli Lilly (LLY)

• Roblox (RBLX)

• CVS Health (CVS)

• Mastercard (MA)

• SiriusXM (SIRI)

• McDonald’s (MCD)

• Shake Shack (SHAK)

After Close:

• Amazon (AMZN)

• Apple (AAPL)

• Airbnb (ABNB)

📅 Friday, May 3

Before Open:

• ExxonMobil (XOM)

• Chevron (CVX)

• Cigna (CI)

• Wendy’s (WEN)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures settled $63.02. That’s up $0.23 or 0.37%.

For the trading week, the price fell -1.03%.. The high was at $64.83. The low was at $61.05. Last Friday the price closed at $63.68.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EU Commissioner Dombrovski is on the wires saying:

• Had cordial and candid meeting with United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
• Reiterates that the EU is going to reach a mutually agreeable solution with US on tariffs.
• He also emphasized the need for continued support for Ukraine

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EU Commissioner Dombrovski is on the wires saying:

• Had cordial and candid meeting with United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
• Reiterates that the EU is going to reach a mutually agreeable solution with US on tariffs.
• He also emphasized the need for continued support for Ukraine

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump says:

• Will Not drop China tariffs unless they give us something
• Opening up China would be a big win

The NASDAQ index moved from 17385 to 17299. The price is currently trading at 17326, up 159 points or 0.92%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump is speaking and says:

• We will be reasonable on tariffs.
• Thinks markets are adjusting to tariff policy.
• Gaza came up with talk with than Yahoo. Told him to be good to Gaza and to take care of feeding in medicine for Gaza
• Iran situation going well. Dealing with highs levels in Iran

Trump is heading to Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis tomorrow. He also has said that many world leaders are looking to speak with him there.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed watcher, Nick Timiraos of the WSJ is tweeting that comments from Fed’s Hammack on Thursday are not really saying a June rate cut is forthcoming. The qualifier is “if”. Whenever there is an “if” it means a condition or more likely conditions still need to happen and they can be for than one, a couple or a few…

His full tweet:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Oil rigs +2 to 483
• Nat. Gas +1 to 99
• Total rigs +2 to 587.

Crude oil is trading up $0.21 or 0.32% at $63.00 on the day. For the trading week, the price is down $0.70 or -1.11%. The high price this week reached $64.83. The low price was at $61.55. Last week the price closed near $63.68.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The week started off poorly with a 3% drop in US equity markets but there has been a rapid and powerful turnaround. The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth consecutive day of gains with a 0.3% rise today.

The index is at its session highs going into the weekend on hopes (expectations?) that Trump will soon announce some trade deals, or at least some MOUs on the way to deals.

So much remains unknown, including what tariffs levels that the US will set as a floor and what other countries might be willing to pledge. At the moment, there is talk of countries buying things like agricultural products but those prices are set globally and buyers are often private so it’s not clear how that could work.

Trump continues to remain focused on trade deficits and raising revenue via tariffs, which is a self-defeating strategy if the aim is bringing down barriers everywhere.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius argues that despite the dollar’s recent 5% decline, it remains significantly overvalued and poised for further depreciation. Structural portfolio imbalances and elevated valuation levels point to a multi-year adjustment.

Key Points:

• Overvaluation Still Extreme:

  • The dollar remains nearly two standard deviations above its long-term real average since 1973.

  • Comparable historical peaks in the mid-1980s and early 2000s were followed by 25–30% depreciation cycles.

• Foreign Holdings Pose Structural Risk:

  • Non-US investors hold $22 trillion in US assets, around one-third of their total portfolios.

  • About half of these holdings are unhedged equity exposures, meaning a shift in sentiment could amplify FX moves.

• Investor Rebalancing Could Trigger Declines:

  • Even a modest reduction in US portfolio exposure by international investors could drive material dollar depreciation.

  • Goldman sees this as a potential long-term headwind to the USD, rather than a temporary adjustment.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs believes the dollar has considerably further to fall, with historical precedent, current valuation metrics, and global capital flow dynamics all pointing toward a multi-quarter USD downtrend. Portfolio diversification and declining US asset appeal may fuel the adjustment.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes on the day:

• German DAX, +0.8%
• France’s CAC +0.5%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1%
• Spain’s Ibex +1.3%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.4%

On the week:

• German DAX, +4.9%
• France’s CAC +3.5%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +1.6%
• Spain’s Ibex +3.4%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +3.7%

The market is betting that Trump will walk back tariffs and avoid a trade war that cripples growth.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.