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The major European indices are closing higher on the day and for the week:

• German DAX, +0.78%. For the week, the index soared 4.86% its best week since January 2023
• France’s CAC +0.48%. For the week the index is up 3.48%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.06%. For the week index is up 1.69%
• Spain’s Ibex +1.32%. For the week the index is up 3.37%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.47%. For the week up 3.8%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Did Xi call or not call?

Oft times, being the strongest, the most powerful – the alpha – matters the most to Trump, but also for Chinese Xi as well. It seem this is the case with regard to “who calls who first”

The FT is reporting that

• Several people familiar with the situation from Washington and Beijing say Xi has NOT called Pres. Trump.

Of course Trump has been saying talks have taken place, but the sources say they have not.

Who really knows as both sides are not exactly known for their honesty, but it would be a shame if talks are indeed slowed due to the need to “not cave in”with regard to the first call.

Come on guys…. get on the phone….

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Kremlin is reporting that :

• US envoy Witkoff met with Russian Pres. Putin for three hours
• Talks were constructive
• Talks brought the sides closer on Ukraine and other questions.
• There was a discussion of renewing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

We know from previous comments this week and from the Time magazine article released overnight, that Ukraine will need to cede Crimea to Russia for peace to occur. Ukraine has balked at that idea.

Pres. Trump also this week publicly scolded Russian’s Putin for continuing to bomb which seemingly is to balance the conversation.

If a ball is in play, it seems it is back in Ukraine’s court.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 57.0
• University of Michigan sentiment final April 52.2 versus 50.8. Prior month 57.0
• Current conditions 59.8 versus 56.5 estimate. Preliminary 56.5. Prior month 63.8
• Expectations and 47.3 versus 47.1 estimate. Preliminary 47.2. Prior month 52.6

inflation expectations

• 1 year inflation expectations 6.5% versus 5.0% last month. Preliminary 6.7%
• Five year inflation expectations 4.4% versus 4.1% last month. Preliminary 4.4%

The data is better than expectations and better than the preliminary. Overall, the soft data has been weaker while the hard data has been hanging in there. Weekly initial jobless claims are still solid

Although the data is higher, the sentiment index is still relatively low (see the chart above)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USTR Greer:

• it is constantly engaged with Japan, other countries in substantiative technical talks focused on improving reciprocal trade
• Pres. Trump ultimately will determine whether to proceed with alternative arrangements for countries that could eliminate or reduce current 10% duties

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US indices are set to open lower but off their lowest premarket levels. The futures are currently implying:

• Dow industrial average -100 points
• S&P index -4.25 points
• NASDAQ index -33 points.

Entering into today, the major indices are higher for the week:

• Dow industrial average +2.43%.
• S&P index +3.83%
• NASDAQ index +5.40%

• Alphabet (GOOGL):

  • Strong Q1 with standout growth in YouTube and Search.

  • No signs of cannibalization; trades at 16.6x forward earnings.

  • Price targets raised by JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs; stock +4%.

• Intel (INTC):

  • Strong earnings beat, weak guidance.

  • CEO rallies team; cost cuts continue.

  • Shares fell over 7%.

• T-Mobile (TMUS):

  • Beat on both sales and earnings.

  • Shares down 5% — strong not good enough.

• Apple (AAPL):

  • Plans to import most U.S. iPhones from India by 2026.

  • Targeting >80 million units annually.

• Nvidia (NVDA):

  • Morgan Stanley trims price target to $160 (from $162).

  • Blackwell chip supply constraints limit near-term upside.

• Meta (META):

  • Lays off staff in Reality Labs (AR/VR unit).

  • Stock up 3%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -0.6%
• Retail sales -0.4% versus -0.4% estimate
• In volume terms, retail sales decreased 0.4% in February.
• Ex auto +0.5% versus -0.4% estimate. Prior month revised from +0.2% to +0.1%
• The advanced report for March show a gain of 0.7% in March.
• Retail sales decreased in seven provinces in February. The largest provincial decrease in dollar terms was observed in Quebec (-0.9%), marking its second consecutive monthly decline. In the Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA), sales were down 2.5%

Details:

• Sales were down in four of nine subsectors and were led by decreases at motor vehicle and parts dealers

• Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers:

  • Overall sales decreased by -2.6% in February.

  • All four store types within this subsector saw declines.

  • New car dealers led the drop with a -3.0% decrease, marking a second consecutive monthly decline.

  • Automotive parts, accessories, and tire retailers also fell by -1.6%.

• Gasoline Stations and Fuel Vendors:

  • Sales increased by +0.3% in February, marking the fifth consecutive monthly gain.

  • In volume terms, sales rose +0.8%.

Core retail sales ex Auto details:

• Core Retail Sales:

  • Increased +0.5% in February.

• Food and Beverage Retailers:

  • Sales rose +2.8%, driving much of the core retail growth.

  • Supermarkets and other grocery retailers (excluding convenience stores) increased +3.7%, rebounding from a -3.2% decline in January.

  • Beer, wine, and liquor retailers contributed with a +2.3% increase.

• General Merchandise Retailers:

  • Sales were up +1.2% in February.

• Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics, and Appliances Retailers:

  • Experienced the largest decline among core retail categories with a -2.9% decrease

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

According the Chinese Embassy,

• China in the US are not having talks on tariffs
• US should stop creating confusion

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• US and China are not having any talks on tariffs.
• US should stop creating confusion.

Here we go again…

In the interview with Time, Trump said that Xi called him.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The economic calendar start off with Canadian retail sales for February to be released at 8:30 AM.

• Canada retail sales expectations -0.4% versus -0.6%. Ex autos -0.4% versus +0.2%
• University of Michigan sentiment for April will be released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 50.8. That is down from 57.0 last month but equal to the preliminary guesstimate. The current conditions is expected of 56.5 down from 63.8 last month. The forward expectations expected of 47.1 versus 52.6 last month. The soft data has been weekend this is one of them.

Other than that, the markets will continue to digest the comments from it’s Pres. Trump in his Times Magazine 100-day review interview.

I don’t see any scheduled central bank comments but will be on alert for those of course.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Markets not enthusiastic about Trump’s remarks
• Trump: China’s Xi has called him
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s developments?
• SNB’s Schlegel: Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out
• Thai Commerce Minister: Thailand will eventually be able to negotiate tariffs with the US
• ECB’s Holzmann: Next policy steps are completely open
• China Foreign Ministry: China and US are not having any consultations or negotiations
• France April business confidence 96 vs 97 prior
• What are the main events for today?
• UK March retail sales +0.4% vs -0.4% m/m expected
• China Politburo reaffirms to cut RRR and interest rates in a timely manner
• Good to see that US and China are reviewing tariffs, says AmCham China president
• FX option expiries for 25 April 10am New York cut

It’s been a relatively quiet session until the Time magazine released its interview with President Trump. At first we saw a quick algo driven spike to the upside as “Trump: China’s Xi has called him” headlines started to pop up. That was faded almost instantly and the markets reversed as more and more headlines started to filter through.

The risk-off flows began to mount with two key remarks as the likely culprit. The first one was his answer to the
question whether he would consider it a victory if the US still had
high tariffs by the end of the year like 20% or 30% or 50%. He replied
“total victory”. Not exactly encouraging.

The
second one was when he said that he won’t call President Xi unless Xi
calls him first. It’s been made clear by now that the Chinese won’t call
first, so if this is the strategy, then they could remain at a
standstill for a long time until the economic damage becomes big enough
to force Trump to fold.

I
don’t think the latter is the reason because he also said that Xi has
called him and the markets don’t believe him anyway at the moment given
that the Chinese keep on repeating that they haven’t had contacts. We
can’t know who is lying between the two, but there’s too much
uncertainty on this topic to bet money on it.

Just this morning we got the Chinese Foreign Ministry saying that China and US are not having any consultations or negotiations on tariffs.

Watch out for the weekend tariff headlines as Trump and many other heads of state will be in Rome for the Pope’s funeral.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

We are seeing some risk-off flows in the markets at the moment. Two key Trump’s remarks could be what’s weighing on the sentiment. The first one is his answer to the question whether he would consider it a victory if the US still had high tariffs by the end of the year like 20% or 30% or 50%. He replied “total victory”. Not exactly encouraging.

The second one is when he said that he won’t call President Xi unless Xi calls him first. It’s been made clear by now that the Chinese won’t call first, so if this is the strategy, then they could remain at a standstill for a long time until the economic damage becomes big enough to force Trump to fold.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.