Articles

Trump says

• There was a meeting this morning with China

No other details were shared.

US stocks get a modest bounce off of the headlines

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump thinks

• Putin will listen to him and stop strikes in Ukraine.

VP J.D. Vance, in comments shared by the White House, revealed that the U.S. has made a clear proposal to both Russia and Ukraine aimed at ending the conflict. The proposal involves establishing new territorial boundaries roughly aligned with current front lines, requiring both sides to relinquish some territory. Vance emphasized that territorial swaps would be necessary but stressed the primary goal is to halt the violence by getting both militaries to lay down their arms and shift focus toward rebuilding their nations.

Zelenskyy said that they would not do that as it would be unconstitutional. Secretary of state US Sec. of State Rubio canceled his dissipation in London peace talk meetings after Ukraine Pres. Zelenskyy said he would not comply.

Here we go again.

More from Trump:

• Both Ukraine and Russia have come to the table
• Both sides want to make peace.
• I have my own deadline on Russia/Ukraine.
• NATO alliance very important for Europe
• NATO not as powerful without US
• Will be talking about trade amongst other things with Norway.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Canada PM Carney speaking to Pres. Trump’s comments on not wanting Canadian cars:

• We decide what happens here
• The remarks are more proof that Canada’s old relationship with the US is over

Yesterday, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has publicly criticized President Trump’s tariff policies, asserting that they are eroding the global perception of the United States. Griffin emphasized that the U.S. has historically been seen as more than just a nation—it has been a universal brand symbolizing culture, financial strength, and military power. He warned that the current administration’s trade strategies are tarnishing this brand, potentially causing long-term damage that could take years to repair. Griffin’s comments highlight concerns about the impact of tariff policies on America’s international reputation and economic credibility

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US posts notice on some China tariff levels.

• Notice applies to low-value imports from China and Hong Kong.

With blanket tariffs of 145% on all China imports, if it were to persist, it would be a very bleak Christmas season especially for the less fortunate. The report does not put a tariff level on the low value imports, or it applies to. I would imagine that these products are cheap and have lower profit margins leading to difficult decisions from small businesses who sell the goods

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month manufacturing index 1.0
• Manufacturing index for April. -5 versus 1.0 last month
• Composite index for April -4 versus -2 last month

The manufacturing index had a low -13 in February. The high price for the year was at +1 last month.

Looking at the chart above, the price is near the middle of what has been the range going back to 2022.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There are consequences to actions.

Boeing has said that they could hand over some of aircraft to other carriers, but at the end of the day, the tariff action is causing disruptions for businesses.

China should do all he can to stop Fentanyl….Yes.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Waller on Bloomberg:

• The general tone is many companies are frozen by tariff uncertainty.
• Firms are trying to see how two navigators.
• It wouldn’t surprise me to see more layoffs, higher unemployment.
• Smaller tariffs will have minus pass-through.
• We need better control of budget deficit.
• No obvious reason why tariffs should be off table as part of fiscal debate.
• Not likely by July there will be clear tariff impacts yet.
• Easiest place to offset tariff costs is by cutting payrolls.
• The second half of the year will bring clarity on the impact of tariffs.
• Less level of unemployment but speed of change that focus
• It is possible that tariffs could push up unemployment quickly
• Struggle over last 18 months has been uneven inflation progress
• Still strongly believes tariffs will be one-time price level effect.
• Demand slow down from tariffs would offset some inflation impact.
• It’s going to take courage to stare down tariff price increases and see them as transitory.
• I am willing to look through tariff price increases.
• Rate cuts could come from rising unemployment
• Fed will look at data to determine policy moves.
• Data focus brings risk of being late on policy action

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 4.26M revised to 4.27M
• Existing home sales lower at 4.02M annualized pace versus 4.13M estimate. The prior month was revised marginally higher to 4.27M. Lowest level since October 2024
• Decline -5.9% after rising 4.4% last month
• inventory/sales 4.0 months supply
• supply of homes is now 1.33 million
• median price is $403,700 up 2.7% year on year
• first-time buyer steady and 32%
• all-cash SALES 26% versus 28%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

For what it is worth (more of some of the rehash from yesterday). FoxBusiness Gasparino it X’ing

• Trump White House is informing senior Wall Street executives of a near-term trade agreement in principle with India.

• Sources are senior Wall Street execs with connections to the White House.

• No specific timing details yet; past efforts with Japan were delayed due to renegotiations.

• The envisioned India deal would include:

  • Agreed-upon goals

  • Resolved issues

  • A set deadline for a finalized trade pact

• Deal could serve as a template for similar agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

• Press officials for Scott Bessent declined to comment but did not deny the report.

• Story is still developing.

Here is the SCOOP

Love how the WH tells Wall Street execs

Let me guess, it will be a “Memorandum of understanding” and the thorny issues will be figured out later.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There are reports that:

• Apple is struggling to ship manufacturing equipment to India from China
• It moved subassembly lines back to China from India due to quality and cost concerns
• It is unable to use Chinese firms for production in India due to geopolitical tensions

Shares of Apple are trading down -0.37% in premarket trading at $203.85. Yesterday the price moved briefly above its 200 hour moving average, currently at $204.36. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December all-time high at $260.10 comes in and $203.93. The price is trading above and below that level in premarket trading. If the buyers are to take more control, they would need to get back above both the 30.2% retracement and the 200 hour moving average. Absent that and a rotation back down toward the 100 hour moving average at $194.95 cannot be ruled out.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Cleveland Fed Pres. Beth Hammock speaking on CNBC says:

• Uncertainty is weighing on businesses. Influences planning on spending and employment
• Wish I had a crystal ball on implications on tariffs
• Cone of possibilities for economy are so wide.
• Does not have basecase right now. Is looking at snares for economy
• I would rather take our time on policy. Look at the data
• Fed needs to be patient
• Soft data is more concerning. Seeing good things in the hard data
• Fed will move quickly if they have to.
• When it is clear which way the economy is going, that is when the Fed will react
• It is the real data that the Fed is monitoring
• Watches markets for their impact on real economy

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 1.0% revised to 0.9%
• durable goods orders 9.2% which is the highest level since July 2024 when it rose 9.8%.
• Nondefense capital goods orders ex-air 0.1% versus 0.2% expected
• Prior nondefense capital goods orders ex-air -0.3% (revised from -0.2%
• Ex transport 0.0% versus +0.3%. Prior month 0.7%
• Ex defense +10.4% versus +0.8% per month

Transportation had a huge impact on the durable goods orders as threats of tariff probably influenced those numbers.. Also excluding defense, orders were up a March 10 .4%. Durable goods have been up for three consecutive months.

Transportation equipment has been up for three consecutive months and led the increases month with a gain of $26.5 billion or 27% to $124.6 billion

Looking at Shipments:

• March durable goods shipments rose for the 4th straight month, up $0.2B (+0.1%) to $293.0B

• February shipments rose 1.3%

• Primary metals led gains, up $0.2B (+0.8%) to $27.8B, rising in 6 of the past 7 months

• Unfilled Orders (Durable Goods)

  • Rose $27.7B (+2.0%) to $1,429.6B in March (up 8 of last 9 months)

  • Driven by transportation equipment: +$28.1B (+3.1%) to $931.6B

• Inventories (Durable Goods)

  • Increased $0.5B (+0.1%) to $533.3B in March (up 5 straight months)

  • Machinery led the gain: +$0.2B (+0.2%) to $94.5B

• Capital Goods (Nondefense)

  • New orders surged $26.1B (+29.4%) to $114.9B

  • Shipments fell $1.6B (-1.9%) to $86.1B

  • Unfilled orders rose $28.8B (+3.4%) to $875.6B

  • Inventories increased $0.7B (+0.3%) to $233.5B

• Capital Goods (Defense)

  • New orders declined $1.3B (-9.4%) to $12.2B

  • Shipments dipped slightly (-0.2%) to $14.6B

  • Unfilled orders fell $2.4B (-1.1%) to $208.0B

  • Inventories rose $0.3B (+1.1%) to $27.2B

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.