Articles

This is via an ING note:

• Canada holds a federal election on 28 April amid a fierce debate on how to face Trump’s tariffs. Polls and betting odds project that Liberals, led by PM Mark Carney, will win with an absolute majority. This scenario is likely priced in by markets, and should have a limited short-term impact on CAD. A surprise Conservative win could instead trigger a CAD rally
• Based on latest polls, CBC projects Liberals will win 151-226 seats, with a central projection at 191, well above the 170 absolute majority threshold. Conservatives are projected around 94-156 seats, the Bloc Quebecois 12-29 and the New Democrats 0-18.

Re forecasts:

• Our USD/CAD projections currently embed a Liberal majority government as a baseline assumption.
• We expect the pair to trade at 1.39 at the end of 2Q, face some upside pressure in 3Q before starting a more structural downtrend from 4Q.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finmin Kato:

• US tariffs, countermeasures are creating uncertainties in financial market

• told G7 US tariffs are highly disappointing
• Stressed that free trade regime promotion important
• Constructive policy discussion important
• refrains from comment on Bessent’s foreign exchange remarks
• FX rates should be determined by the market
• Excessive forex moves negatively affect the economy
• In meeting with Bessent tomorrow, hope to hold talks on basis of past understanding on the need for two countries to coordinate closely

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finmin Kato:

• US tariffs, countermeasures are creating uncertainties in financial market

• told G7 US tariffs are highly disappointing
• Stressed that free trade regime promotion important
• Constructive policy discussion important
• refrains from comment on Bessent’s foreign exchange remarks
• FX rates should be determined by the market
• Excessive forex moves negatively affect the economy
• In meeting with Bessent tomorrow, hope to hold talks on basis of past understanding on the need for two countries to coordinate closely

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Nikkei report, via Reuters:

• Nissan decided to scrap development of two electric vehicle models in the U.S.

• Nissan scrapped development of two sedan EV models planned to be produced in its Mississippi plant from 2028

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China is preparing to remove sanctions on several Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) as part of efforts to revive its long-stalled investment agreement with the European Union.

A spokesperson for European Parliament President Roberta Metsola confirmed that talks with Chinese officials are nearing completion and that she will brief parliamentary group leaders once the decision is formally announced.

The sanctions, which barred five MEPs from entering China, were imposed in retaliation for EU sanctions over human rights concerns. Lifting them is seen as a goodwill gesture aimed at reopening dialogue on the frozen EU–China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy minister Akazawa to visit the U.S. for tariff talks from April 30.

NHK confirmation of this from yesterday

• Japan economy minister Akazawa could visit U.S. for tariff talks as early as April 30

I posted this pic of him in that linked post above, he’s in the hat!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) has trimmed the number of items on its negative list from 117 to 106

• The Negative List for Market Access (2025 Edition) has been approved by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and will be issued and implemented from now on.

China’s Negative List refers to a government-issued list that outlines sectors and industries where foreign investment is either restricted or prohibited. It’s a central component of China’s effort to manage and gradually liberalise its foreign investment regime.

• It specifies sectors in which foreign investors:

  • Cannot invest at all (prohibited),

  • Can only invest under certain conditions (restricted),

  • Or must meet joint venture requirements or ownership caps.

• Any sector not on the list is considered fully open to foreign investment.

Today:

• 17 local measures were removed such as traffic logistics, freight forwarding, freight information services, forest resource loss identification, vehicle leasing services
• Unmanned aerial vehicle operations and new tobacco products such as e-cigarettes have been included in the negative list

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Its been face plant after face plant from Trump, a face save would be very welcome news for the economy.

This from respected journo Charles Gasparino:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan services PPI is AKA the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI)

Comes in at 3.1% in March

• up from 3.0% in February

**

Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan

• Data published by the Bank of Japan
• covers services such as transportation and communication, finance and insurance, wholesale and retail trade, and others

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. told Japan it cannot give Japan special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, NHK says citing multiple Japan govt sources

Headline via Reuters

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters on comments from a senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official:

• Bank of Japan likely to push back timing of further rate hikes if IMF’s reference scenario materializes

• Japan’s inflation likely to converge to BOJ’s target sometime in 2027 rather than in 2026, as initially expected

• Balance of risks is to the downside for Japan’s economic growth, inflation

• Yen remains safe-haven currency given strength, predictability and stability of Japan’s economy

• IMF supports Japan’s commitment to flexible foreign exchange regime, which helps absorb shocks

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.