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US Treasury Secretary Bessent at the IMF conference says

• IMF, World Bank serve critical roles in international system.

• U.S. administration is eager to work with IMF and World Bank as long as they stay true to their missions.

• No one who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be eligible for funds earmarked for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

• U.S. wants allies to work with it to rebalance international financial system and refocus IMF, World Bank to founding charters.

• Trump administration wants to help China and U.S. rebalance.

• China’s current economic model is built on exporting its way out of economic troubles.

• IMF devotes disproportionate time and resources to work on climate change, gender and social issues, crowding out macroeconomic work.

• IMF needs to call out countries like China that have pursued globally distortive policies, opaque currency practices.

• Economic stability and growth should be markers of IMF success, not how much money is lent.

• World Bank should no longer expect blank checks for vapid, buzzword-centric marketing and half-hearted reform commitments.

• World Bank can use resources more efficiently by focusing on increasing energy access.

• World Bank treating China, the second-largest economy in the world, as a developing country is absurd.

• World Bank must set firm graduation timelines to end lending to countries that have met graduation criteria.

• If China wants to play a role in the global economy commensurate with its actual importance, then the country needs to graduate up.

• China can start reform by moving economy away from export overcapacity, toward supporting its own consumers and domestic demand.

• Not every country is deserving of IMF support like Argentina; IMF must hold countries accountable to reforms.

• World Bank needs to use resources as efficiently and effectively as possible, demonstrate tangible value for member countries.

Bessent also adds:

• America first does not mean America alone

HMMM Plan B is starting as Plan A is not working that great

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 0.674M
• New home sales rise by 7.4% on the month after a 3.1% gain last month
• This is the highest level since May 2023
• Median sale price -7.5% to $403,600 down from $436,400
• Northeast -22.2%
• Midwest +3.0%
• South +13.6%
• West -1.4%
• home supply 8.3 months at current pace versus February’s 8.9 months

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 50.2
• Manufacturing PMI 50.7 versus 50.2 last month
• Services PMI flash for April 51.4 versus 52.5 estimate. Prior month 54.4
• Composite index 51.2 versus 53.5 last month.

For the full report CLICK HERE.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlights growing economic challenges in the latest April flash PMI report. Here are the key takeaways from his comments:

• Business activity growth slowed sharply in early Q2, with optimism about the outlook slumping.

• Output rose at the slowest pace since December 2023, suggesting the US economy is expanding at just a 1.0% annualized rate.

• Manufacturing stagnated due to offsetting effects of tariffs, economic uncertainty, supply chain issues, and declining exports.

• Services growth also slowed, particularly from weaker export demand like travel and tourism.

• Business confidence fell significantly across both manufacturing and services, driven by concerns over recent government policies.

• Tariffs are the main driver of rising prices, but labor costs are also pushing up company pricing.

• Selling prices rose at the fastest pace in over a year, with manufacturing prices increasing at the steepest rate in nearly 2.5 years.

• These price pressures may lead to higher consumer inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates despite signs of economic slowdown.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal sources is reporting that the White House was reportedly mulling cutting China tariffs to de-escalate the trade war.

• 35% tariff on nine strategic items
• 100%+ tariffs on goods tied to national security
• phased in over five years

On Powell,

• Pres. Trump reportedly swayed by Treasury Secretary Bessette and commerce Sec. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick to not fire Powell

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +0.1%

The new housing pipeline in Canada is completely drying up, at least in the condo market.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

IMF:

• Says increased tariffs to push global public debt to GDP ratio up by 2.8 percentage points in 2025 to 95.1% of GDP

• Global debt levels may top 117% of GDP by 2027 if revenues and output decline more significantly than current forecasts due to tariffs

• Fiscal monitor projects global public debt to reach 99.6% of global GDP by 2030, topping pandemic-era levels

• Fiscal projections are based on ‘reference projections’ of 2.8% global growth for 2025

• U.S. budget deficit projected to fall to 6.5% of GDP in 2025, 5.5% in 2026 vs 7.3% in 2024 due to tariff collections, continued growth

• U.S. budget projections based on policy announcements through April 2, assume 2017 individual tax cuts expire at year-end

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The market has an insider trading problem, or at least the perception of one.

This administration started with a memecoin pump and it’s been downhill from there as Trump’s tweet about a crypto reserve was clearly front run. Earlier this month there was a suspicious pump from Trump before he abandoned the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ and now this.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated to a private JPMorgan meeting that “markets would breathe a sigh of relief” because it was inevitable that China tariffs would be lowered. Then, after the close Trump dropped his attacks on Powell and said he would make a deal with China, even if China didn’t come to the table.

Markets were up big yesterday before the Bessent news and now futures are up 2.6% today.

I’m always suspicious of people who point to curious options trades around macro events but it’s getting hard to ignore. There are selective disclosures and unusual options trades that leave everyone with a pit in the stomach whenever there is a move without news. That’s a tough environment to have any conviction in.

We’re close to a consensus that every move is insider trading and that means that the only trades worth taking are for one hour or one year.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It remains all about the tariffs as Trump has folded on his campaign against Jerome Powell, and evidently in his campaign against China. That has S&P 500 futures op 2.3% on top of yesterday’s 3% gain.

I don’t think that economic data or central banks speak will be what derails that today but it will offer some important clues about what’s happening in the real economy. Sentiment has been struggling and that’s likely to continue with the US April flash PMIs from S&P Global. Those are out at 9:45 am ET and 15 minutes later we get the latest report on new home sales.

On the Fed calendar, we will hear from Goolsbee at 9 am ET and Waller at 9:35 am ET. Critically, we will also hear from the Treasury Secretary at 10 am ET — and this time it will be public. The final event comes at 2 pm ET with the Beige Book and this edition might offer some valuable insights on how companies are coping with the trade war.

For GBP traders, The BOE’s Bailey speaks at 12:30 am ET and Breeden speaks at 2 pm ET.

For more, see the economic calendar.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• National interests take priority over OPEC+ interests when it comes to oil output levels.
• Kazakhstan cannot reduce oil output from old oilfields, as it would destroy them.
• Cannot order oil majors to cut output either.
• We will support oil output increase at the Chevron-led Tengiz field.
• No major maintainance planned at Caspian pipeline this year.
• Kazakhstan is able to increase oil supplies to Germany via Russia, depending on position of Moscow.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• The world economy is in a very delicate situation.
• We need a better understanding of how to find compromise on tariffs.
• Tariffs are not a good policy, that’s for sure.
• There is a lot of uncertainty, we have to be cautious.
• In the Euro system, we are on a good path.
• We can come close to price stability over course of 2025.
• I see a lot of good news when it comes to inflation.
• Meeting by meeting is best way to conduct policy.
• We can’t exclude a German recession this year.
• It’s much too early to come to a conclusion on what the tariff scenario means for both sides of the Atlantic.
• Chinese products might come to Europe instead of the US.
• The role of Germany does not change with a new financial package.
• The package is an important message to the world that Germany is doing its homework.
• The German economy will do much better over coming years.
• The German fiscal package won’t be inflationary.
• The doubt over safe-haven status of US Treasuries is not good.
• It’s not good to doubt the US Dollar’s position as a safe haven.
• We should give back the US Treasury the safe haven status.
• Independence of central banks is the DNA of good central banking.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 18 April -12.7% vs -8.5% prior
• Kremlin: Putin remains open to contacts with Europeans and Ukraine to find a settlement
• Positive Trump’s comments make traders pare back some agressive easing bets
• UK April flash services PMI 48.9 vs 51.5 expected
• Eurozone April flash services PMI 49.7 vs 50.5 expected
• Germany April flash manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs 47.6 expected
• France April flash services PMI 46.8 vs 47.6 expected
• China says US can’t say it wants a deal while exerting extreme pressure at the same time
• It’s a question of when and not if the market rhetoric will turn again
• FX option expiries for 23 April 10am New York cut
• And round and round we go..
• Economists now more split on next BOJ rate hike – poll

It’s been a quiet session in terms of news releases with just the Flash PMIs as the main highlights. Except for the UK, the data wasn’t as bad as someone would have expected but anyway the market’s focus remains on tariffs, so the reaction to the data was negligible.

The markets continue to digest the positive Trump’s comments. The stock market extended the rally to new highs, while gold reached new lows before pulling back. The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains mixed as the short term repricing in interest rates is not strong enough to reverse the bearish trend.

In the American session, the main highlight will be the US Flash PMIs. I expect the market to mostly ignore the data as usual, but if there’s a negative reaction to potentially weaker data, then we might see the market fading the weakness as the momentum from Trump’s comments is likely to continue unless we get some walk back.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -8.5%
• Market index 233.5 vs 267.5 prior
• Purchase index 153.4 vs 164.2 prior
• Refinance index 673.6 vs 841.9 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.90% vs 6.81% prior

This is never a market moving release. Of course, as long term interest rates rise, mortgage applications fall. The mortgage market index and the US30Y yield are inversely correlated.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.