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It was a nice rebound from yesterday’s selling and puts main indexes very close to unchanged on the week:

• S&P 500 +2.5%
• Nasdaq Comp +2.7%
• DJIA +2.7%
• Russell 2000 +2.8%
• Toronto TSX Comp +1.2%

We will take it a day at the time, watch Tesla earnings after the bell.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I posted a preview of the report yesterday:

• Big Tesla Tuesday coming up – Q1 2025 results due Tuesday, April 22

And also a special sales offer for China:

• Tesla offers five-year zero interest financing on refreshed Model Y in China

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold has been on a record run for the past two weeks and touched a record $3500 in Asian trading today. The big figure was evidently a cue for some bulls to take profits and that’s been the trend in US trade with it falling all the way to $3373.

Even with the nearly $130 turnaround, gold is still up $50 on the week.

The chart shows the potential for profit taking ahead and that could mean a fall as low as $3150 and a retest of the early-April high. That would be the first level of support followed by $3000. To get back through the big figure, I suspect we would need to see real progress on reversing trade tension, likely in the form of deals that completely remove tariffs and provide some certainty.

The test for now is Asia. That’s been the main source of buying all year and it will be critical to watch if Asian bids emerge later and buy the dip. If not, expect to see more selling in North America tomorrow.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive view on GBP/USD, citing UK resilience to US trade shocks and European FX strength. However, they advise caution on Sterling relative to other European currencies due to lingering domestic risks.

Key Points:

• GBP/USD Outlook Positive:Sterling continues to benefit from broad EUR FX strength and its lower vulnerability to US tariffs, keeping the upside case for Cable (GBP/USD) intact.

• Domestic Risks Persist:Goldman flags the risk of renewed fiscal premium concerns in the UK, especially if fiscal headroom tightens. Additionally, a dovish BoE pivot could emerge, though it may partially ease those fiscal concerns.

• Sterling vs. European FX:Despite the broader bullish bias on GBP, Goldman does not see a strong case for GBP outperformance vs. EUR, CHF, or SEK, given domestic uncertainties.

• Substitutive Risk Factors:A dovish BoE and fiscal risks are seen as interlinked—with one likely tempering the impact of the other—making sustained outperformance of GBP more difficult relative to peers.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs remains bullish on GBP/USD in the broader European FX context, but sees limited upside for GBP vs. other European currencies near term due to the UK’s fiscal and monetary policy ambiguity.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The price of WTI crude oil futures for May delivery is settling at $64.31. That is up $1.23 or 1.95% on the day.

The gains were helped by

• U.S. Treasury sanctions being imposed on Iranian LPG magnate Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh and his corporate network, restricting hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian LPG and crude oil exports.

• Hopes for trade issues with China, Japan, and India over time

Counter to that bullish news is that OPEC+ is planning to ease production cuts by adding 411,000 barrels per day to the market next month, though this was already expected. However any trade deals are said to not be imminent.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar continues to recoup some of yesterday’s losses. It’s coming with strength in stocks and some light bids in bonds.

The euro rose to as high as 1.1573 yesterday but it’s sagged to 1.1429 today, which is about 40 pips from Friday’s close.

In my opinion, this reveral has come on some flimsy headlines from Bessent and others. That said, the selloff in the dollar yesterday didn’t have much of a catalyst either as the Powell and Japan-trade headlines weren’t bad (provided Powell isn’t actually fired).

The good news today — I think — is that Trump has been quiet on trade. That likely has some in the market believing that he is hungry for a deal and anything that could turn around markets. Imagine the President was quiet on trade every day.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We’re going to be doing this for a long time.

Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino reports:

Bessent & Co scrambling to reach deals with India, South Korea, Japan, Australia; deals said not to be imminent more

He also writes that VP Vance becomes “major executor” in trade negotiations to expedite deals with India and other allies and downplaying earlier Bessent leaks/comments because de-escalation depends on China’s willingness to negotiate.

It’s very tough to trade around these headlines, especially when things are leaking behind closed doors.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Now that Bessent has leaked market moving information, it looks like his team is into damage control.

Here’s a thought, Mr Treasury Secretary, how about you stop delivering remarks at private meetings to JPMorgan clients and then there won’t be any confusion? Is that too much to ask?

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This Bessent fiasco of inside information is unfolding in slow motion.

The latest is from CNBC that reports:

Source in the room tells me this is a rough transcript of the comments Treasury Secretary Bessent made yesterday at a closed door event that are moving markets today:

“The next steps with China are, no one thinks the current status quo is sustainable at 145 and 125 [percent]. So I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation. And I think that that should give the world, the markets, a sigh of relief… We have an embargo now, on both sides, right?”

There are two notable things here. The main one is that he added he believes it’s coming “in the very near future” and also that the comments were yesterday, not this morning as originally reported.

Separately, the White House’s Leavitt is now saying that ‘the ball is moving in the right direction’ with China.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The latest headline that moved markets was from Politico and it was this:

White House is ‘close’ on Japan, India tariff agreements — but expect them to be light on specifics

That sounds promising, right?

Within the story it sounds more like the “the terms of reference to lay down a roadmap for the negotiations” that the USTR announced earlier today:

“I wouldn’t even call them deals,” another person close to the White House said of the frameworks the administration is looking to announce. “Basically, [it’s] an agreement that we would like to talk about doing a deal.”

And this:

“They’re going to start rolling out a bunch of stuff that just says, you know, we’re signing something that says we’re going to start talks,” they added.

As for a timeline?

It may take months to hammer out the final deals

How many months? The average US bilateral trade deal has taken 18 months to hammer out. The USMCA in Trump’s last term — which was the light re-hashing of NAFTA — took 13 months. The US wantts to do 90 deals in 90 days.

After the initial headline excitement, the market has recoiled at these details. The President can proclaim these kinds of things loudly as ‘deals’ but you’re not going to fool the market and this won’t remove any uncertainty.

At best, I could see a situation where within the 90 day period, they announce a few things and bring tariffs down to 0% while deals are negotiated. How realistic is that? Not very.

The S&P 500 has now given back 60 points of gains.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

From the private meeting with Treas. Sec. Bessent

• China negotiations will be a ‘slog’
• Describes current bilateral trade situation as an embargo
• No one thinks the current status quo between China is sustainable. Therefore there will be de-escalation with China over the very near future.
• Goal is not to decouple US, China economies
• US rebalancing with China, but questions is whether Beijing is ready to do it.
• Rebalancing of the China economy towards consumption and US economy towards manufacturing in 2 to 3 years would be a huge win

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Politico is reporting that the White House says that they are close on Japan and India trade agreement:

• The White House is closing in on general agreements with Japan and India to stave off massive US tariffs, but they are likely to leave many of the thorny details to be hashed out at a later date.
• Administration officials are working to eight what three people close to the White House described as memorandums of understanding or a broad architecture for future deals.
• May take months to hammer out the final deals as these things are complicated.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.