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With each passing day that Trump’s tariffs stay in place, we’re descending further into chaos. Japan was supposed to be the easiest of battles to win in this tariffs war but that’s looking like a crapshoot now. The early indications were there amid the difference in communication between Trump himself and the Japanese side. There really are no easy deals at this point.

At the same time, there’s the continued game of chicken between the US and China. The rest of the world is set to be the innocent bystander but also going to suffer from the consequences of the economic warfare.

Then, there’s the loss of confidence in the dollar alongside China’s response to weaponise the yuan. And so the longer this continues, the more gold stands to benefit as there isn’t any better alternative. Even Treasuries are no longer a safe haven as 30-year yields are shooting back up to 4.91%.

Other supportive factors are central banks continuing to stock up on the precious metal and ETF holdings still having some ways in catching up to prices at the moment.

Gold is up nearly 2% on the day again to $3,485 currently and looks extremely poised to touch $3,500 this week next.

Just like it is tough to pick a bottom in falling market, it is tough to pick a top in this situation for gold. Not least when so many factors are all running in sync to underpin the precious metal, all at once.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Federal Reserve speakers Tuesday include Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Barkin, and Kugler
• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks on Tuesdau – monetary policy
• Wall Street Journal says Trump Is Laying the Groundwork to Blame Powell for Any Downturn
• China’s automobile exports +16% y/y in Q1 2025
• ECB policymakers Klaas Knot and Luis de Guindos speak Tuesday
• Key Congress leader says every Treasury sale of debt is a ‘hold your breath’ moment
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2074 (vs. estimate at 7.2925)
• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has a new ‘crypto friendly boss
• Tesla offers five-year zero interest financing on refreshed Model Y in China
• South Korea will implement smaller tax cuts on oil products from May
• Shanghai’s gold ATM draws crowds as prices soar
• Why you are hearing a lot, and will hear more, about bonded warehouses -Trump tariff whims
• ICYMI – China pulls back from U.S. private equity
• Japan economy min Akazawa confirms agriculture will not be compromised in US tariff talks
• Japan’s Finance Minister to meet with US Treas Sec Bessent to discuss FX matters
• Moody’s Zandi says Trump’s policies set to severely diminish the economy for years
• New Zealand data: March trade balance NZD 970mn surplus (prior +392mn NZD)
• Morgan Stanley says Trump’s erratic tariff policy has brought on COVID-level uncertainty
• Gold price up again, hits a record now above USD3430
• ICYMI – Ford suspends exports of several vehicles to China amid tariffs
• JP Morgan on the Trump risk to Federal Reserve independence
• South Korea March 2025 PPI +1.3% y/y (prior +1.5%)
• Big Tesla Tuesday coming up – Q1 2025 results due Tuesday, April 22
• ICYMI – BlackRock has purchased another US$84mn of Bitcoin for its spot Bitcoin ETF
• Major US indices close sharply lower
• ICYMI: Citigroup shifts Fed rate cut call to June, maintains 125 bps easing 2025 forecast
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 22 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Pope Francis: A man who loved God, his neighbor and even his enemies
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar struggles to get off the floor

Gold
rose to another record high price in early trade here in Asia and
then kept adding higher throughout the morning. As I update its above
US$3452 USD3472 (I can’t keep up!). The catalysts are familiar:

• central
  banks buying as the reliability of the US and USD increasingly comes
  into question
• ETFs
  buyers
• geopolitical
  tension increasing
• and
  mix in shorts chasing their tails after trying to nail a top

News
and data flow was light.

US
equity index futures traded higher. The initial upmove came ahead of
an announcement from Tesla that its offering five-year zero interest
financing on its refreshed Model Y in China. TSLA earnings are due
Tuesday afternoon, US time. There is a preview linked in the points
above.

USD/JPY
is net little changed on the session after a run higher to above
141.10 and a retrace back under 140.65. EUR/USD did a round-trip
also, under 1.1485 before popping back to above 1.1510.

USD/CHF
and GBP/USD are higher.

AUD,
NZD, CAD are all not a lot changed.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s automobile exports data for Q1 2025 via China Passenger Car Association secretary general Cui Dongshu:

• 1.54 million units
• +16% y/y

For March 2025:

• 570,000 units exported
• +16% y/y also

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Republican member of Congress Rep. Frank Lucas is the chair of the confressional Task Force on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity.

Axios has a piece on his views on Trump’s attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Powell:

• said the task force has discussed the importance of Fed independence and how to build “the walls higher and stronger and taller.”

• “From my perspective, the challenge is how do you keep my friends in Congress and other political forces around from impeding price stability and impeding the focus of the Fed,”

• “Independence matters to me.”

This is all blah, blah, blah IMO (which may be incorrect, of course) as these guys have been spineless in dealing with Trump.

However, he said something interesting:

• “I don’t know that we need any extra excitement in the markets right now,”

• “We have enough stuff going on. Every Treasury sale of debt instruments—whether it’s bills, bonds, notes, whatever— is a ‘hold your breath’ moment,”

Bolding is mine.

Strong words coming from a man in his position.

Link to the Axios report here.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is not surprising, and out for a few hours. Just noting it now.

• The SEC announced Monday that Paul Atkins has officially become its new chairman.
• Atkins, a crypto supporter, is expected to lead efforts to bring friendlier regulations on crypto.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla offers five-year zero interest financing on refreshed Model Y in China.

TSLA Q1 earnings due tomorrow:

• Big Tesla Tuesday coming up – Q1 2025 results due Tuesday, April 22

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea will implement smaller tax cuts on oil products from May

• finance ministry announcement
• tax breaks will be extended until the end of June
• rate to be 10% for gasoline, from the current 15%
• for diesel and liquefied petroleum gas butane to 15% from 23%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Shanghai has introduced the world’s first “Gold ATM”.

Its attracting strong interest from residents looking to sell gold amid record-high prices.

The ATM weighs, verifies, and recycles gold with real-time pricing and instant payouts—charging a service fee of 18 yuan per gram and completing transactions in about 30 minutes.

More here if you are interested.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In response to the Trump administration’s recent tariff hikes, U.S. importers are increasingly utilizing bonded warehouses to mitigate financial strain. These facilities allow companies to store imported goods without immediate payment of duties, offering flexibility in managing inventory and cash flow.​

• Importers can postpone tariff payments until goods are released for domestic consumption, aiding cash flow management.​
• Goods stored in these facilities can be exported without incurring U.S. duties, beneficial for companies with international markets.​
• Businesses can store goods for up to five years, allowing them to respond to market demand and policy changes effectively .​

This trend reflects a broader shift in supply chain strategies as companies adapt to an unpredictable trade environment. By leveraging bonded warehouses, importers aim to navigate tariff challenges while maintaining operational flexibility.

The surge in demand for bonded warehouse space is particularly notable in coastal regions like Los Angeles and New Jersey.

***

More:

A bonded warehouse is a secure storage facility where imported goods can be kept without paying duties or taxes until they are officially cleared for domestic use or re-exported. Here’s a simple breakdown:

• A customs-controlled warehouse authorised by the government.

• Goods are stored “under bond”, meaning taxes and tariffs are deferred.

• No import duties are paid while goods are in the warehouse.

• Goods can be stored, manipulated, or even processed (e.g., repackaged, relabelled) before final clearance.

• Ideal for importers who are unsure when or where the goods will be sold.

• If goods are re-exported, no duty is paid at all.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, the Financial Times carried a report on the holiday Monday, in brief:

• China’s state-backed funds are pulling back from investing in the funds of U.S.-headquartered private capital firms amid an escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies

The FT is gated, but in summary:

• Chinese state-backed funds have stopped making new investments in U.S. private equity since the start of the trade war
• part of a broader strategic financial decoupling from the U.S.
• China Investment Corporation (CIC) is among the state-backed funds that are pulling back

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s economy minister Akazawa says he shares PM Ishiba’s stance that agriculture will not be compromised to protect auto industry in U.S. tariff talks.

***

The only thing for sure in all this attack on trade from Trump is that there will only be net losers.

Tarfiff policy making on the go

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fox Business Gasparino is saying Elon Musk will give guidance on when he will leave DOGE during the Tesla earnings call on Tuesday after the bell.

Tesla shares are down $16.80 or -6.95% to $224.59. It’s a low this year on April 7 reached $214.25.. At that time, the price tested the lows going back to October 2024. The price is down around 53% from it’s high price reached in December.

In other company specific news, Nvidia has a serious issue with upcoming chip. According to sources, this new problem is serious and has delayed the device by months so far with no fixed insight. This is according to SemiAccurate but unsubstantiated otherwise . Shares of Nvidia are currently down $5.44 or 5.34% at $96.03

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.