Articles

Japan’s finance authorities are to ask banks to help support financing at small companies affected by US tariffs

Statement from Japanese finance minister Kato via Reuters.

Kato is setting up a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent to discuss FX issues

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is via Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, Mark Zandi:

• The Trump administration’s policies are set to severely diminish the economy, not only for the next few months but for years. The administration’s trade war is undermining the global safe-haven status of the U.S., which has provided incalculable benefits, including our economy’s exceptionalism.

Its part of a thread, in summary:

• Investors trust the U.S. due to stable laws and predictable governance.

• Trump’s erratic tariff policy undermines that stability and process.

• Political pressure on the Fed threatens its independence and risks inflation.

• Loss of credibility could push Treasury yields and lending rates higher.

• CDS spreads on U.S. debt show growing doubts about creditworthiness.

• The trade war has hurt U.S. credibility, but there’s still time to limit the fallout.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand March trade balance NZD 970mn surplus

• prior +392mn

Annual Trade Balance NZD -6.13bn

• prior -6.63bn

Exports in March 7.59bn NZD vs. prior 6.61bn

• imports 6.62bn vs. prior 6.22bn

NZD/USD not a lot moved, update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold price to a record above USD3430

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korean March 2025 PPI

+1.3% y/y

• prior +1.5%

0.0% m/m

• prior 0.0% also

***

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the PPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indice are closing the day with declines close to 2.5% to start the new trading week.

• Dow Industrial average fell -971.82 points or -2.46% at 28170.41
• S&P fell -124.50 points or -2.36% at 5158.20.
• Nasdaq fell -41.55 points or -2.55% at 15870.90

The small cap Russell 2000 fell -40.30 points or -2.14% at 1840.32

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a fairly light data calendar for the session ahead, eyes on the news once again in this headline-driven market. What will Trump tweet today?

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This morning I was saddened by the death of Pope Francis.

Pope Francis was a man of love, of inclusion, of welcoming. That shepherding was based on the gospel – the word of the Lord. He was never above God/Jesus, but he followed the example They gave us.

Jesus was sent to change things. He walked the earth and said there are two commandments – Love God was the first.

All things emanate from loving God. It is fundamental to love God for giving us the world we live, and the lives we live..

The 2nd commandment was Love your neighbor. Jesus even added, “Love your enemy”.

How do you love your neighbor? You welcome them. You make them feel at home. You care for them. You help them. You give of yourself to them. Pope Francis loved all people.

• In his Fratelli Tutti encyclical, he called for universal fraternity beyond all boundaries—religious, national, or social—affirming that everyone is created in the image of God.

• During actions during travel, whether washing the feet of refugees (including Muslims, women, and non-Catholics), visiting prisons, or comforting migrants, Francis constantly embodied the Gospel principle that “whatever you did for the least of these… you did for me.”

• He once said that “If someone is gay and he searches for the Lord and has good will, who am I to judge?”

• He has publicly supported civil unions for same-sex couples, saying they have a right to legal protection, even as he upholds Church teaching on marriage.

• He’s met with LGBTQ+ individuals and advocacy groups, expressing love and pastoral care. He wrote letters of encouragement to Catholic parents of LGBTQ+ children, telling them, “God loves your children as they are.”

• In 2019, he signed the Document on Human Fraternity with Grand Imam Ahmed el-Tayeb in Abu Dhabi—an unprecedented interfaith gesture promoting peace and coexistence.

• He called the Jewish people the “elder brothers” of the Christian faith and has participated in Holocaust memorials, fostering dialogue and reconciliation.

• After the death of George Floyd, he called out the sin of racism, saying, “We cannot tolerate or turn a blind eye to racism and exclusion in any form.”

How do you love your enemy? There is good and bad in the world. God gave us a choice to go down this path of righteousness or go down this other path of sin. We all make mistakes (sin). Sometimes those mistakes hurt us/other people. We learn to forgive. That is part of love.

Sometimes we have trouble fully forgiving. It takes two to tango or the wrong is just to egrecious/hurtful. We learn to pray as a form of loving our enemy and hoping they have a “come to Jesus moment”/they change.

Pope Francis had enemies, but he still loved them:

• He has faced intense opposition from within the Church, including public criticism by some bishops, cardinals, and traditionalist groups. Instead of retaliating, he has responded with patience, prayer, and humility. He often said, “I am a sinner,” acknowledging his own faults and refusing to elevate himself above those who disagree with him. He invited a group of conservative U.S. bishops—some critical of his papacy—to the Vatican for dialogue, not rebuke. He welcomes honest disagreement and says the Church must be a place where people can speak freely without fear.
• After terrorist attacks in Europe and elsewhere, he repeatedly urged forgiveness and peace—not retaliation.
• He has prayed for those who persecute Christians, especially in the Middle East and Africa, urging people not to return evil for evil.
• He said that “Forgiveness does not mean impunity… but we can still love those who do us wrong. Loving an oppressor does not mean allowing them to keep oppressing.”
• He regularly led prayers for those who cause division, conflict, or war, asking God to “change hearts of stone into hearts of flesh.”

In the world that is in flux where I often ask “what would Jesus do”, I could also ask what Pope Francis would do. He was a breath of fresh air for me/for many in a world where I/others wonder, “Was that what Jesus would do?”. Now, I am not naive enough to not understand that sometimes hard decisions need to be made in the “business/real world” that don’t fit in the religious world. Nevertheless, if all can’t be happy, there is a right way and a wrong way of “doing it” (whatever that “it” is). HINT: Bringing a chainsaw to a DOGE rally is not the right way. Name calling, threatening, shaking down is not the right way. The “Art of the Deal” has pain and suffering as part of the “art”. Is that Christ-like? Many people are suffering now.

Of course, Pope Francis made changes within his “business” and the hierarchy of the cardinals, bishops, etc. within the Vatican that are the equivalent of a demotion, taking a voice away from someone. Moreover, the Catholic faith did not do enough with regard to the priest sexual abuses, the role of woman within the church (or is that woke or DEI?). How they deal with divorce can be archaic at times and incongruent with Christ-like. How about selling some of the Vatican art collection for charity?

There is/was room for improvement that could be more Christ-like.

However, Pope Francis was largely a voice based on loving God and neighbor and enemy. He also was a leader not just of the Catholic faith, but was an example to other faiths as well.

Rest in heavenly peace Holy Father and may God bless those making the decision for the next Pope, to focus on the model of your Son and of Pope Francis.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Trump: There is virtually no inflation
• Trump highlights ‘good meetings’ on tariffs and Iran
• Fed’s Goolsbee: We’ve got short-run inflation expectations up but not long-term
• AWS reportedly hitting the brakes on data center expansion
• US a leading index for March -0.7% versus -0.5% estimate
• Putin: Fighting resumes after the “Easter Truce”
• Pope Francis dies at 88

Markets:

• Gold up $93 to $3420
• US 10-year yields up 8 bps to 4.41%
• WTI crude oil down $1.27 to $63.41
• S&P 500 down 2.7%
• EUR leads, USD lags

‘Sell America’ was the theme right from the open of trading as the White House failed to achieve any concrete progress on trade and the market grows impatient. Trump wrote about non-tariff barriers early in the day and that set the tone but was followed up with another attack on Fed Chairma Powell in US hours.

The lows for the dollar came early in Europe and there was something of a bounce in US trade that saw USD rise around 50 pips on some fronts but much of that rebounded faded y late in the day. The overall moves on the day were large and helped along by a fresh rise in long-dated Treasury yields.

At this point there isn’t much more to say but a fresh sign of the market losing confidence was that a Trump post about ‘good meetings’ on trade did almost nothing for risk assets or the dollar. We’re at the point where the market needs to see real progress or gravity will weigh on stocks and the dollar.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Nvidia are down 5.4% today and the Nasdaq is down 3%.

One of the drivers is a Wells Fargo note that’s doing the rounds that suggests AWS is slowing data center deals.

he financial giant reports that “industry sources” indicate Amazon’s cloud division has paused portions of its colocation leasing discussions, with international locations particularly affected. The exact scope remains unclear, but it represents a potentially significant shift in the hyperscale data center market.

This follows similar moves by Microsoft, suggesting the two largest cloud providers are simultaneously entering a digestion phase after aggressive expansion.

• AWS reportedly not cancelling signed deals
• Simply pulling back from pipeline of LOIs (Letters of Intent) and SOQs
• Follows Microsoft’s recent similar pullback
• Could signal moderating data center demand from hyperscalers

The timing raises questions about cloud expansion as it looks like we’re in a classic ‘cooling off’ period following a tech boom.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar was battered right from the open today but in the last few hours it staged something of a bounce. It recovered around 60 pips against the euro and half of that in AUD/USD.

Now though, the dollar is coming back under pressure as long-dated US Treasury yields creep higher again. I wouldn’t say bonds are the trigger but the price action here is worrisome. Along the same lines, gold is now +$100 on the day again and on the brink of a new high after giving back $25 earlier.

There is a real and steady flow out of US dollars and USD assets at the moment. It’s a pure vote of non-confidence.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.