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From the USTR release:

• Actions designed to restore US shipbuilding while mitigating disruptions
• Vessel ownders and operators of China would be assessed port fees starting at $50 per net ton in 180 days
• Fees will increase by $30 per ton per year for three years
• Foreign-built car carriers would start at $150 per vehicle in 180 days
• Fees on Chinese-linked vessels will be assessed per US voyage not per port call and will be imposed no more than 5 times per year
• Orders of US built vessels will lead to suspended fees for up to 3 years

It’s a monumental task to create a US shipbuilding industry basically from scratch. I tend to think that companies will just pay these fees or find ways around them rather than invest massively in ship building when these policies could be reversed in 4 years.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in April monetary policy decision, as expected
• ECB sources report: Decision to cut interest rates was unanimous
• ECB sources: Some members see a high chance of a June cut
• US initial jobless claims 215K vs 225K estimate
• US April Philly Fed business index -26.4 vs +2.0 expected
• Trump has spoken with Kevin Warsh about taking over the Fed Chair – WSJ
• Trump: China has reached out since tariffs
• Trump will sign executive order extending federal hiring freeze until July
• Trump: Federal Reserve Chairman will leave if I ask him to
• Lagarde: Downside risks have increased
• Lagarde Q&A: A number of governors a few weeks ago would have argued to skip a rate cut
• Trump trade deal with Japan is close – report
• Fed’s Williams: Does not see the need to change rates any time soon
• Pres. Trump: .Very confident of trade deal with the EU
• Atlanta GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 unchanged at -2.2%
• US March housing starts 1.324M vs 1.420M expected
• Baker Hughes oil rig count +1 to 481
• Italy’s economic minister to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Tuesday
• Anna Paulson is the new Philadelphia Fed Pres. effective July 1, 2025
• Israeli officials recently developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites in May

Markets:

• Gold down $15 to $3327
• S&P 500 +0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 5.4 bps to 4.33%
• WTI crude up $1.98 to $64.45

More to come

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It was a four-day week in the US stock market but the momentum from last week’s huge rebound didn’t last. The peak of the week came on Monday after some electronics tariffs were removed but it didn’t take the sellers long to step in.

On the week:

• S&P 500 -1.6%
• Nasdaq -2.6%
• DJIA -2.7%
• Russell 2000 +1.1%

Trump had some positive comments on a China deal after hours but the market is going to want actual progress.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump:

• China has reached out a number of times
• We’re talking to China
• I don’t want to go higher on China tariffs
• Says he wants US Steel to remain in US
• If China tariffs go higher, people won’t buy
• I think China deal will be made over the next 3 to 4 weeks
• I think we have a lot of time

Lutnick:

• Confident we will work something out with China

These are positive comments.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

As Powell said yesterday, the US federal budget deficit isn’t a hiring problem and it’s not even a discretionary spending problem, it’s an entitlement and interest problem. This isn’t something that can be solved with a DOGE-style chainsaw, it’s going to require a wholesale change int the system and there is no political will to do that… so we will get deficits.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Q1 revenue $10.54B vs $10.51B expected
• Q1 EPS $6.61 vs $5.71 exp
• Reiterates revenue forecast of $43.5-$44.5B
• Sees Q2 EPS $7.03

Shares are trading at $981 compared to $975 at the close but it’s been choppy.

The call is at 4:45 pm ET.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US stock markets looked good 90 minutes ago but it’s all fallen apart. The S&P 500 is poised to close flat and the Nasdaq is down around 0.3%. The DJIA is down 1.2% because of the 22% implosion of United Health following a cut in guidance.

It’s a long weekend so markets won’t reopen until Monday in the US.

Netflix reports after the bell. Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect earnings per share of $5.71 and revenue of $10.51 billion.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The worst-case scenario for the US economy at the moment — and this is something Powell hinted at yesterday — is a covid-style halt in trade. We don’t have to look back to far to see how that might play out as it led to shortages and inflation. It also might have led to widespread economic problems if not for massive financial and monetary stimulus (that isn’t likely to come this time).

Here is Craig Fuller the founder of FreightWaves:

Trucking market conditions are soft, but with imports and exports collapsing, the industry is in for a very rough season in coming months.

The winds are picking up, but the hurricane is still offshore.

Here is Ryan Peterson Founder and CEO of Flexport:

Two of our American customers devastated by the tariffs gave up and sold themselves to their Chinese factories in the last week.

He has also warned that thousands, and then millions, of American small businesses, including many iconic brands, will go bankrupt this year if the tariff policies on China don’t change.

Earlier this week I highlighted the crash in forward freight bookings.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If you missed it, about two hours ago, Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino was out with this report:

If the current trajectory of the negotiations remain, White House officials expect to soon announce a trade deal w Japan, I am told by people w direct knowledge of the matter. No details on exact timing and this could always change given the volatility of the talks, but the smoke signals are positive so far. Also no details on type of deal ect. According to one White House official: “We’re in a great place with a lot of people…Trump didnt get here because he isn’t persuasive…Easter might slow things up but we’re making progress.” Story developing

That’s probably the wind behind the sails of the stock market in the second half of the day today but note that Japanese reports aren’t as positive.

I also think the scope of the first deal — whatever it is — will be critical. Japan has a $68 billion trade deficit in goods with the US so it’s a tough test but I hope the US can drop the 10% tariff floor. If not, and if the US is looking for things like reparations for military defense, then it’s going to signal a tough slog on trade.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Generally in a bear market you see selling into a long weekend on heightened risks for bad news. A good example was during the 2023 banking crisis when risk assets were sold on Fridays because of fears of a bank failure.

Now, we’re seeing that reverse. Why?

Last weekend offers a powerful example. Late on Friday, the US exempted computers, chips and other electronics from reciprocal tariffs and that sparked some major optimism. Some of that was dashed before the Monday open as Trump said it was a short-term measure but we could get a breakthough between the US and China or something else this weekend.

What else?

I’m watching for progress on a US-Japan deal as they met this week. If we get a resolution that brings Japan rates back to zero (rather than the 10% floor) it would be a good sign. I’m doubtful that comes but you never know with Trump.

The flipside of hopeful buying into the weekend is that if there’s no news on the weekend then there is a bias towards selling early on Monday.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This could be heading down a dark path. If Trump turfs the Fed Chairman and/or enough Governors to make a difference, then selling the dollar and buying gold is one of the most-straightforward trades you will ever find.

“If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me,” Trump said. “He’ll leave if I ask him to. He’ll be out of there.”

“He’s too late. He’s always too late, too slow,” he said (which is just an admission the economy is slowing down, not speeding up).

He did not answer a question on whether he will try to remove Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.

Whoever Trump appoints as the next Fed chairman will be telling. Expect it to be a yes-man and right now it’s not looking like Senate is in a position to push back.

Other comments from Trump in the Oval office:

• I think Iran is wanting to talk
• Minerals deal to be signed next Thursday

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Oil rigs +1 to 481
• Nat. Gas +1 to 98
• Total rigs +2 to 585.

Crude oil is trading up $1.63 for 2.59% and $64.09. That takes the price above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the recent April 2 high at $63.70. The price I traded to the highest level going back to April 4. The low price for the month was reached at $55.12 on April 9. Since then, the price is up 16.26%. The prices still down around -10.25% from the end of March.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.