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Positive comments on trade from Pres. Trump as given the stock little bit of a boost to the upside.

The S&P index is now up 34 points or 0.65% 5309.44.

The NASDAQ index which traded as low as -126 points is now up 24 points or 0.15%.

The Dow industrial average remains negative by 352 points but is trading near highs for the day after falling as much as -719 points.

Meanwhile Treasury Secretary Bessent is saying that trade negotiations with Japan are moving along in a highly satisfactory direction.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Freddie Mac is reporting that the US 30 year fixed-rate mortgage came in at 6.83% for the April 17 week. That is up from versus 6.62% in the prior week.

The high mortgage rate for the year is around 7.04%. Below is around 6.6%. The current rate is new the middle of that range at 6.83%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump is saying that he is very confident on a trade deal with the EU.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 remain unchanged at -2.2%. The gold import and export adjusted GDP also remains unchanged at -0.1%.

In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.2 percent on April 17, unchanged from April 16 after rounding. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.1 percent. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 24. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Citibank sees gold prices rallying to $3500 over the next three months. The previous estimate was $3000 with the average of $3250 during Q2 2025.

Gold prices reached a high on Wednesday at $3357.92. The price is currently down $41.40 or -1.24% to $3298.59.

Technically, the 100-hour moving averages rising and currently at $3260.83 just above the average price as expected from Citibank. Holding above that level would keep the sellers in firm control. On a break below, the 38.2% retracement of the recent move up from the April 7 low comes in at $3204.43.

Gold has benefited from flight to safety flows. Central banks have also been big buyers.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Treasury Secretary Bessent is reportedly to meet Italy’s economic minister on Tuesday at the G20 summit. Trump is expected to meet with Italy’s prime minister today.

Italy’s Economic minister says:

• Tax policy including domestic digital levies is matter to be negotiated with US at bilateral not EU level.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled to meet with President Trump today in Washington. Meloni seeks to balance national interests with EU solidarity, potentially advocating for increased purchases of American liquefied natural gas and military equipment to ease tensions. ​

An EU spokesman said yesterday that they expect tariffs to be enacted eventually as trade talks are not making progress.

Yesterday, President Trump met with Japanese officials, including Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa, to discuss tariffs and trade relations. While Japan aimed to focus on trade and investment, Trump expanded the agenda to include defense cost-sharing. Despite a temporary 90-day hold on new tariffs, existing tariffs of 10% to 25% on Japanese goods remain in place. Both sides have agreed to continue discussions later this month.

China remains the main problem and while no direct meetings between President Trump and Chinese officials have been reported recently, China’s President Xi Jinping is actively engaging with Southeast Asian nations to strengthen regional ties amid U.S. tariff policies. Trump enacted tariffs of up to 145% on China imports.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US treasury will auction off 2, 5 and 7 year notes next week, along with traditional bill auctions. Below is the schedule.

• April 21 (Monday)
  • $76 billion in 13-week bills
  • $68 billion in 26-week bills

• April 22 (Tuesday)
  • $69 billion in 2-year notes
  • $70 billion in 6-week bills

• April 23 (Wednesday)
  • $70 billion in 5-year notes
  • $30 billion in 2-year floating rate notes (settles April 30)

• April 24 (Thursday)
  • $44 billion in 7-year notes

All auction sizes are as expected.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

IMF’s Georgieva is on the wires saying:

• Real economies are functioning. Labor markets are quite strong

• We swee sharp increae in uncertainty, but fundamentals are still quite strong

• We do recognize that there is significang change in economic conditions, expect to see policy pivots in other areas including tax

• Asked by people are expecting recession, says its important to reduce whatever feeds into this perception quickly

• Financial markets are holding up despite all the nervousness.

• Negative perceptions can affect economic recovery

• Financial system holding despite all this nervousness

• India is now reducing non-tariff barriers, which is very healthy for the economy

• Strong U.S. economy is a stabilizer for the rest of the world

• Good to see elements of U.S. pro-growth agenda moving forward

• Asked about rising tensions between U.S. and China, says both parties have grievances

• Would like to see a reduction in uncertainty

• Important that the result is a fairer, rule-based global trading system

• We see a global slowdown, need to reduce uncertainty so businesses can plan

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The New York Times was out late yesterday with a report relevant to the Middle East and oil traders:

• Israeli officials had recently developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites in May to set back Iran’s nuclear program by a year.
• Trump made clear to Netanyahu that he would not provide American support for an Israeli attack in May while the negotiations were playing out
• Netanyahu initially pushed for an option that would have combined airstrikes with commando raids
• Gabbard argued the buildup of American weaponry could potentially spark a wider conflict with Iran that the United States did not want

There are reports of a larger buildup of American navy assets in the Arabian sea, though the target is purportedly the Houthis in Yemen.

I take this report as a sign that nothing is imminent, though the latest reports on negotiations aren’t as good as they were coming out of the weekend. Also note that the targets here all appear to be nuclear, not energy more broadly or oil.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major indices are opening up mixed with the Dow industrial average down sharply while the NASDAQ and S&P index are rebounding after yesterday’s declines.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported Q1 earnings that missed expectations, with EPS of $7.20 vs. $7.37 expected, and revenue of $109.6 billion vs. $111.55 billion expected. The company also cut its full-year EPS guidance to $26–26.50, down from a prior range of $29.50–30.00. The disappointing results were driven by revenue pressure from ongoing Medicare funding reductions and a shift in member mix, along with higher utilization of senior care services.

The outlook was further downgraded due to unexpectedly high care activity within UnitedHealthcare’s Medicare Advantage business, especially in physician and outpatient services. Additionally, changes in the profile of Optum Health members and low 2024 engagement with reimbursement plans contributed to concerns for 2025 projections.

UNH is trading down close to 18% and contributing largely to the Dow industrial average decline of nearly 500 points.

Taking a snapshot of the market currently shows:

• Dow industrial average is trading down -517 points or -1.30% at 39155
• S&P index is trading up 10.02 points or 0.19% at 5285.
• NASDAQ index up 12 points or 0.08% at 16318

TSMC reported a strong Q1 with net profit of TWD 361.6 billion (beating expectations of TWD 354.6 billion), operating profit at TWD 407.1 billion, and revenue at TWD 839.3 billion, sharply higher than the TWD 592.6 billion from a year ago. Capital expenditure rose significantly to TWD 10.06 billion, up from TWD 5.77 billion.

For Q2, TSMC expects revenue between USD 28.4–29.2 billion (above consensus), with gross margins projected at 57–59% and operating margins at 47–49%. Despite rising concerns around U.S. tariffs, the company noted no change in customer behavior and reaffirmed its forecasts.

TSMC highlighted robust AI-related demand, with revenue from AI expected to double in 2025. It’s aggressively expanding capacity, particularly in Arizona, to meet strong U.S. customer needs—including Apple. The company is advancing its CoWoS packaging capacity, expects 2nm production in Arizona, and remains on track with its N2 volume rollout in H2 2025. TSMC also dismissed any joint venture talks and continues to scale its U.S. operations, noting the need for over 1,000 engineers at its R&D center.

Guidance for 2025 remains unchanged, with capex at USD 38–42 billion, and revenue forecasted to grow by mid-20% in USD terms. CoWoS supply and demand are expected to become more balanced in 2026.

Share shares of TSMC are up 2.95%.

Nvidia shares are still lower at -1.34% after declining closed 7% yesterday.

Amazon shares are down one dollar or -0.52% at $173.40. Alphabet shares are up 0.33%. Microsoft are up 0.20%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Donald Trump wrote today that he likes ECB policy, how about Fed Chair Lagarde?

For now, her job is European rate and we will hear from her at 8:45 am ET or 1345 GMT. Better than the video is the low-latency feed here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior week initial jobless claims 223K revised to 224K
• Initial jobless claims 215K vs 225K estimate
• 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 220.75K vs 223.25 last week. .
• Continuing claims 1.885 Mvs 1.872M estimate
• Prior week continuing claims 1.850M revised to 1.844M
• 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.867M vs 1.866M last week.

The data continues to point toward solid/steady US jobs picture.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.