Articles

• US stocks close lower but rally modestly into the close
• Oh no! Oil is higher. Crude oil futures settle $62.47
• Nasdaq takes a turn for the worse after the peak from the Trump U-turn holds
• China pivots from the US to Canada for more oil amid trade war
• Powell sees strong possibility that trade progress will move Fed away from goals
• Fed’s Powell: Well positioned to wait for greater clarity before making changes to stance
• Macklem struggles through the Bank of Canada press conference, offers few useful comments
• The US treasury auctioned off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.810%
• US Customs & Border protection: Collecting $500 million under Pres. Trump’s latest tariffs
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow improves to -2.2% from -2.4% at the last estimate
• More from Fed Hammack: Going to take time to see how trade policy is impacting economy
• Fed’s Hammack: Sees a ‘strong case’ to hold policy steady for now
• Fitch: Deep cuts to global forecasters global trade war escalates
• BOC’s Macklem: We are navigating carefully
• EIA weekly crude oil inventories +515K vs +507K expected
• New US sanctions target Iran oil tankers
• US April NAHB housing market index 40 vs 37 expected
• US business inventories for February 0.2% versus 0.2% estimate
• Bank of Canada Macklin text release of his opening statement
• The full statement from the April 2025 Bank of Canada rate decision
• Bank of Canada rate decision leaves rates unchanged, as expected
• What’s Next for the Dollar?
• US March retail sales +1.4% vs +1.3% expected
• The USD is lower vs the EUR, JPY and GBP to kickstart the trading in the US for April 16
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar shoved lower as risk remains cautious
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 11 April -8.5% vs +20.0% prior

Retail sales did not miss a beat with sales up 1.4%. Business inventories were up a modest 0.2%. HMMM with sales strong and inventories modestly higher that may a problem when imports slow to a trickle. Maybe it works out and the “weeble starts to wobble but it won’t fall down?”. Or maybe the house of cards gets taller and taller and crashes? It’s too early to tell given all the uncertainties from the Pres. Trump tariff aspirations.

The US dollar moved mostly lower on the day.

The USDJPY fell to the lowest level since September 2024, but stalled at the low of a swing area between 141.64 and 141.94. The price nevertheless remains within that swing area currently at 141.84 keeping the sellers in control, it would take a move back above 142.072 give the buyers a small victory with more work to do.

The BOC Rates kept rates unchanged and Adam pointed out that

The BOC Governor Macklem had a rough time of it in his presser. The central banker offered little in the way of clear policy guidance or a coherent framework for addressing the ongoing trade war. Instead of providing direction, Macklem relied on vague, repetitive talking points—repeating the phrase “navigating carefully” multiple times while referencing his notes. At one point, he stated the Bank was prepared to “act decisively,” only to backtrack and redefine the term as simply meaning flexibility.

That his remarks were more like wishful thinking, particularly in the face of unpredictable U.S. trade policy under Trump. Rather than engaging meaningfully in the debate about whether tariffs are a transitory shock or a longer-term drag on growth and inflation, Macklem largely avoided the topic. He and Deputy Governor Rogers even downplayed the Bank’s own newly-released Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecasts.

Finally, in a rare moment of candor came when Macklem acknowledged the “erratic, unpredictable course of U.S. trade policy,” a sentiment many market participants likely share. While he reiterated the Bank’s commitment to price stability and supporting the economy within its mandate, that message was buried in a delivery that felt uncertain and meandering. Had he leaned more heavily on that assurance, the press conference may have landed more effectively.

US Fed Chair Powell also spoke today at the Economic Club of Chicago, said the Fed is well positioned to wait for greater clarity before adjusting its policy stance (no hurry to cut). He acknowledged that growth likely slowed in Q1, though the overall economy remains solid amid heightened uncertainty and downside risks. Inflation remains somewhat above the Fed’s 2% target—PCE prices likely rose 2.3% over the past 12 months—but has declined significantly from earlier peaks. Powell highlighted that recent tariffs, which were larger than anticipated, are expected to raise inflation and slow growth. He pointed to a sharp decline in business and consumer sentiment, attributing it to trade policy concerns, while noting the labor market remains strong and broadly balanced.

Powell emphasized that the evolving nature of administrative policies introduces significant uncertainty. He warned that if both inflation and employment goals move off track, the Fed will need to assess how far the economy deviates from its dual mandate and how long those gaps may persist. He sees a strong possibility that trade-related disruptions could push the Fed away from achieving its goals for the remainder of the year. If inflation expectations rise due to delayed tariff effects, the Fed’s challenge would intensify. He remarked that the U.S. hasn’t faced tariffs at this level since the Smoot-Hawley era (and it did not end well either), making it difficult to model the economic impact. Despite these challenges, Powell said markets remain orderly, and the Fed stands ready to provide dollar liquidity to global central banks if necessary. He also downplayed concerns about U.S. government debt, noting that domestic discretionary spending is a small part of the equation.

Generally speaking, the comments from Fed chair Powell did not appease the stock market.

Although Powell’s comments did not help US stocks, they did get off on the wrong foot after Nvidia announced it would take a $5.5 billion charge due to new U.S. export restrictions requiring a license for shipping its H20 AI processors to China and other countries. AMD and Intel also had restrictions as the Trump administration puts the squeeze on China at the expense of Nvidia, AMD, Intel and other chip manufacturers.

Shares of Nvidia fell -.6.87%, AMD fell -7.35%, and Intel fell -3.12%. The NASDAQ index fell by 756 points and the session lows but rally into the close and close down only -516.01 points or -3.07%. The S&P index listing -175.84 points at session lows but closed down -120.3 point -2.24% at the close.

Yields in the US are closing near the lows after being higher earlier. A snsapshot of the closing levels shows:

• 2 year yield 3.775%, -5.12 basis points
• 5-year yield 3.908%, -1.4 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.280%, -4.2 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.742%, -3.4 basis points

In other markets,

• Crude oil is trading up $1.30 or up 2.12%
• Gold surged by $113 or 3.5% to $3342.48. That is the largest one-day gain going back to at least 2013, and maybe on record given it is trading at all-time highs.
• Bitcoin is trading up $657 and $84,343

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of United Airlines rose nearly 10% after hours yesterday following earnings but ultimately gave it all back, in part because of a bearish shift in the broader market.

One of the things that weighed was commentary from the company that tilted bearish and highlighted real weakness from consumers, particularly in the middle class.

Some highlights from the conference call:

Scott Kirby, CEO

• “The first quarter of 2025 was sure eventful. It’s clear the softer macroeconomic environment is driving both volatility in the market and softer demand for travel.

Andrew Nocella, Chief Commercial Officer

• Demand trends did turn down as we exited January resulting in lower revenue production than we had originally forecasted for Q1. Domestic main cabin RASMs were down 5% year-over-year and represent the bulk of the gap between our Q1 revenue expectations and actual results.”
• “So far, we’ve seen no deterioration in high-end consumers’ willingness to purchase a premium experience. We attribute this to the fact that the economic uncertainty has a larger impact on more budget-minded discretionary travelers than those seeking a premium experience.”
• “I do think there are different types of consumers and each of those consumer types feels a different level of pressure in the situation that the country faces right now. And clearly, the discretionary consumer faces more pressure. And that customer was probably less likely to take that vacation to Rome or Tokyo to begin with.”

The airline said it’s preparing for the possibility that “bookings could weaken from here” and took the rare step of issuing two sets of guidance, with one for a recession. Those numbers highlighted the extreme operating leverage in the commercial aviation industry with a dozen empty seats being the difference between a cash-gushing machine and a financial disaster.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Financial Times reporting:

• Intel has informed Chinese clients it will start needing a license to sell some of its advanced artificial intelligence processors

The FT is gated but Reuters supply some summary infor:

• Intel told clients last week that its chips would require a license for exporting to China if they have a total DRam bandwidth of 1,400 gigabytes (GB) per second or more, input-output (I/O) bandwidth of 1,100 GB per second or more, or a total of both of 1,700 GB per second or more, according to the report.
• Intel’s Gaudi series as well as Nvidia’s H20 far exceed these requirements, the report said.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand inflation data and Aussie jobs report are a couple of focal points for the calendar ahead.

The slight tick higher expected for NZ CPI will not prevent further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Not in this tariff-war-led pre-recession environment.

Last month’s Australian jobs report showed a substantial drop in jobs, expected to be partially reversed today. Hmmm. Let’s see about that!

As a caveat to both these reports, they are for pre-April, i.e. they don’t capture the initial impact of Trump’s Liquidation Liberation Day reciprocal tariff economic destruction.

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oh no. Oil prices are now moving up too.

US yields moved 50 basis points last week and although the 10 year yield is down -23 basis points this week. They are still much higher than the 3.86% low yield seen in early April (the current 10 year yield is at 4.27% which is down from 4.59% last week, but up from 3.86% too).

The US stock market is getting tagged with the NASDAQ index now down around -731 points or -4.33%. The S&P index is down 3.12%.

The tariff take home benefit into the US External Revenue Service was promoted as being $2 billion day. The Customs and Border Protection told CNBC that they have collected more than $500 million under Pres. Trump’s latest tariffs. It is unsure if that is a total of $500 million or $500 million a day or $500 million since x-date but it seems clear that it’s not $2 billion a day. What if goods from China tariffed at 145% just stop coming in. What will prices (and supply) do if those imports simply don’t make it to the shores of the US? Remember the supply chains from Covid?

The Fed chair did not promote a rate cut today and getting three might be a stretch in 2025 too, with the unemployment rate of 4.2% and the risk of supply shocks and higher inflation with it. It is not like business inventories are spiking.

Now …. we get oil prices up $1.14 or 1.86%. From the low seen on April 9 the price is up 14.26%. Drill baby drill may not be what oil companies in the US want to do or can afford to do?

Meanwhile, this US Rep took a field trip to El Salvador and snapped this shot. If that is a win, I am missing something.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The wheels are coming off the equity market with the S&P 500 down nearly 3% and the Nasdaq down 4.2%. The market was evidently looking for a nod to rate cuts from Powell and it didn’t come.

Now we’re getting some serious kicking and screaming. USD/JPY has broken the 2025 low and is trading at the worst levels since October as stops are hit in a quick, 70 pip move.

This chart is very much looking like it wants to test 140.00 again and if we don’t get some good news on the earnings front, the Nasdaq is likely to test its lows as well.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause to ‘reciprocal but not really reciprocal’ tariffs led to one of the all-time great Nasdaq rallies as the index soared 10%.

The day afterwards it gave a big chunk back before embarking on a fresh effort to make new highs following a weekend suspension of electronics tariffs. However the administration attempted to walk that back and it’s now looking more like a double top at 17,200.

The Nasdaq Composite is down 3.9% today and trading at session lows. It didn’t get any help from Nvidia’s disclosure that it faces new restrictions on China chip sales in yet-another sign of chaotic policymaking. Shares of NVDA are down 10%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If Canada is able to play its cards right, there are enormous and highly economic long-life oil assets that can be exploited. It would require pipelines to the west coast but there is an increasing national acceptance for those kinds of projects due to antagonism from the United States.

This is just a headline from a wire for the moment but it highlights how China is aggressively trying to shore up trading relationships, particularly for commodities.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the bottom of the hour. Ahead of that, the market is pricing in a 16% chance of a cut in May and a 76% chance of a cut in June.

Waller made a dovish shift this week but other Fed officials have been preaching patience and not looking through tariff price shocks.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• High yield 4.810%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.814%.
• Tail -0.4 basis points versus six-month average of +0.8 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.63X vs six-month average of 2.56X
• Directs 12.32% vs six-month average of 17.9%
• Indirects 70.68% vs six-month average of 66.8%
• Dealers 16.99% vs six-month average of 15.3%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US Customs and Border Protection told CNBC that the department has collected more than $500 million under Pres. Trump’s latest tariffs. That is woefully short of the $2 billion per day that Pres. Trump repeatedly cites.

If true, how long will it take for Pres. Trump to enact tariffs that truly brings in $2B? (or tries too).

The problem is supplies may never make it to port especially from China. If no goods are coming in, no tariffs can be collected.

If the tariffs are not working in hurting China, what hurts would be things like chip exports into China.

This stuff cannot be good.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.